Friday, January 11, 2013

Baseball Hall of Fame: The Real Ballot


Surprise surprise, the year where Mike Trout was robbed of MVP, the BBWAA totally missed the boat on the Hall of Fame induction.  In a season where if I had a vote I would have voted for the maximum 10 players possible, somehow no players were inducted.  Not arguably the two greatest players most people have seen, Bonds and Clemens, gritty guys, Biggio, or sabermetric darling, Tim Raines.  A bunch of deserving players were left out of the Hall of Fame, and if I had a vote here would be the 10 I would choose:
Here are a couple of main statistics I used in the piece (all courtesy of Baseball Reference)
WAR- Wins Above Replacement Player, basically how many more wins a player is worth than an average triple A replacement player
WAR7- The 7 best seasons of a player’s career in regard to WAR, not necessarily in order
OPS+  OPS that adjusts for what park and what league the player played in, is on a 100 point scale, 105 means they are 5% better than league average, 95 means 5% worse than league average
ERA+ Like OPS+, it is ERA adjusted for park affects and the strength of the league, also on a 100 point scale
Jeff Bagwell
Currently there are 18 first basemen in the Hall of Fame; right now Jeff Bagwell has the 7th highest career WAR of any first basemen ever.  He also has the 5th highest 7 best seasons WAR of all time, which would constitute excellence, and not just longevity.  He was the best slugging 1st basemen in the steroid era, that offensive swoon.  His career BA/OBP/SLG line is .297/.408/.540, which happens to be quite excellent.  In the strike shortened 1994 season he earned a well-deserved MVP, so really the strength of any Bagwell argument rests on the idea he might have used performance enhancing drugs.  The evidence he did this, he was huge and could work out a lot.  There have been no whispers and no positive tests, but is being kept out of the Hall of Fame because of accusations other players have faced, disgraceful.
Craig Biggio
Honestly, I’m quite confused as to why Craig Biggio didn’t make the Hall of Fame.  He has never been connected to steroid use, and for what it’s worth doesn’t seem to look like a user.  He has over 3000 hits, something that almost guarantees 1st year induction.  He was seen as a tough gritty player, who played multiple positions and seemed to be high on intangibles.  All of those things cloud the fact that he is a player greatly deserving of induction.  He had a batting line of .281/.363/.433, a great line considering he played catcher and second base for most of his career, and those numbers were depressed by a few late career seasons going after 3000 hits.  Of the current 19 2nd basemen in the Hall of Fame, only 9 rank ahead of him in career WAR, and 11 rank ahead of him in WAR7.  He is clearly a Hall of Famer who only didn’t make it because of some writers’ idea that he isn’t a “1st ballot Hall of Famer” which is just stupid; if you are a Hall of Famer then you are a Hall of Famer it doesn’t matter when you get in.
Barry Bonds
It’s pretty comical that Barry Bonds isn’t a Hall of Famer.  As I detailed in my previous piece he is one of the greatest players in the history of baseball.  He has the highest career WAR by a considerable margin of any Left Fielder, o and 2nd place is Ted Williams, who Bonds is considerably higher than.  Let’s go over the argument quickly he was the best player in baseball during the 90s then starting in 2001 put together arguably the best 4 year run of any player in the history of baseball.  Ok now let’s get to why he isn’t in the Hall of Fame, his almost definite steroid use.  Question why do people feel the need to get on their high horse and decide what is cheating.  As multiple baseball writers have pointed out, many hall of famers including Hank Aaron used amphetamines which at the time weren't against league rules but are now considered so.  This is very much like steroids and really in my mind if you say Bonds doesn’t deserve to get in then you are saying that Hank Aaron doesn’t as well.
Roger Clemens
You know everything I just wrote about Barry Bonds; well now imagine that for a pitcher.  A quick rundown, there are currently 58 starting pitchers in the MLB Hall of Fame, Roger Clemens is higher than all of two of them in WAR.  Those two pitchers happen to be Walter Johnson and Cy Young pitchers who played between 1890 and 1927.  He is a legend and a freak that totally dominated baseball for 24 years, and totally dominated the sport in both longevity and dominance.  He is 9th all-time in wins, 7th in ERA+, and 3rd all-time in strikeouts.  The only argument he doesn't deserve to get in is the same as the Bonds argument from above, so I won’t rehash it, and he clearly deserves to get in. 
Edgar Martinez
If you are ever going to let a DH into the Hall of Fame, then this is the guy.  He currently has a career WAR of 64.4, only 6 first basemen in the Hall of Fame have a higher career WAR than that.  He had a batting line of .312/.418/.515, and a career OPS+ of 147, only 4 Hall of Fame first basemen are higher.  Clearly if he was a first basemen he would deserve to get in but what about as a DH?  I think first base is the best point of comparison first of all because it is by far the least important position defensively and usually the team’s worst fielder plays there anyway.  Martinez thus wasn't hurting his team with his defense like some Hall of Famers do.  He has clearly merited induction, especially with no steroid suspicions surrounding him, but it seems like he won’t be inducted because he was a DH, a poor reason considering WAR makes positional adjustments. 
Mark McGwire
As a baseball player, Mark McGwire had two skills, hitting for power and getting on base, he was exceptional at both of those skills but not very good at anything else, is that deserving of induction, I say yes.  To me here is the best argument, only 3 current Hall of Famers have an OPS+ higher than that of McGwire, his is 163, making him 63 % better than the average major leaguer.  This is a player with 583 Homeruns, and an OBP of .394 he was one of the best players in the game of baseball despite having only those 2 obvious skills.  However considering those are probably the two most important skills a major leaguer can have, and he was one of the best in the history of his position at them, and one of the best in baseball during his time he deserves enshrinement.  Also the same argument with regards to steroids that applies to Clemens and Bonds apply to McGwire. 
Michael Piazza
I honestly don’t understand the argument that Mike Piazza isn’t a Hall of Famer.  This guy is probably the greatest hitting catcher of all time.  He is the all-time leader in homeruns, SLG, OPS and OPS+ among qualifying catchers.  He is 5th all-time in WAR and 3rd all-time in WAR7.  Really the only weakness his game had was that he was a subpar defense player.  In all reality he wasn’t as bad as his reputation and his offense way more than made up for any difficulties defensively.  Also he is a player without any steroid accusations.  While he was strong and muscular the only “argument” I have heard that he has taken steroids is that he has “bacne”.  Also if he did use, and there is no evidence he did, then again it shouldn’t stop the greatest hitting catcher of all time from being a Hall of Famer. 
Tim Raines
I’m pretty sure the only reason Tim Raines isn’t a Hall of Famer is because the BBWAA has a personal vendetta against my favorite baseball writer Jonah Keri, considering Raines is his favorite player and most ardent Hall of Fame supporter.  Really that’s the only logical reason to keep Tim Raines out of the Hall of Fame.  Why else would they keep out a baseball player who played a position where 19 players reached the Hall of Fame and ranks above all but 4 of them in WAR and all but 7 in WAR7.  He reached base 3977 times, more than Tony Gwynn, ranks 5th all-time in steals with 808 steals which he stole at a 84.7% success rate, good for 11th all-time.  He has a career batting line of .294/.385/.425 which compares favorably to Rickey Henderson’s .279/.401/.419.  Really he probably isn’t in already because he fell short of 3000 hits, but honestly he got walked so much the point is irrelevant.  Also if anyone is keeping him out because he did cocaine, Ty Cobb is in the Hall of Fame.   He was a very good hitter and an all-time great base stealer who clearly deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, and his exclusion makes Jonah Keri sad, something I can’t see any reasonable human being wanting. 
Curt Schilling
His exclusion from the Hall of Fame is another one that baffles the mind.  There are 58 starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame; only 18 have a higher career WAR than him.  This is a pitcher who had dominate seasons in Philadelphia, Arizona and Boston.  He 6 times finished with an ERA+ higher than 140 making him 40% better than all other pitchers in baseball at the time.  He won 216 games for those that consider something like that important, which while not the highest total ever is still quite impressive.  Also he was one of the greatest post season pitchers of our lifetime adding even more so to the resume.  In 19 post season starts he had an ERA of 2.23 threw 130 innings, struck out 120 batters, walked only 25 and finished with a record of 11-2.  This is a man who regular season accolades alone warrant Hall of Fame induction, but adding postseason play to the table brings it to another label.  Also the obligatory no steroid suspicions and even if he did so it wouldn’t matter.
Alan Trammel
The basic crux of voting Alan Trammel into the Hall of Fame is that he was an above average hitter throughout his career at the 2nd toughest defensive position, while playing amazing defense there.  His value at shortstop is incredibly important to the value of the team, and he provided offensively considerably helping his case even more so.  Only 7 of the 21 shortstops in the Hall of Fame rank above him in WAR while only 6 rank above him in WAR7.  He had a solid .285/.352/.415 batting line, which was deflated by a weak last few seasons, and provided solid value offensively.  The main part of his argument was defense, and often overlooked aspect that got Ozzie Smith elected and should hopefully get Trammel in. 

Now here is one player who is quite close to being inducted but under no circumstances deserves to get in:
Jack Morris
Yes that’s right 254 game winner and 3 time World Series Champion Jack Morris doesn’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.  He was a slightly above average pitcher who pitched a lot of innings for a lot of very good teams and thus won a lot of games.  He had a career WAR of 39.3, the average starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame has a WAR of 68.1, the likes of Jamie Moyer, Brad Radke and countless others are higher.  His WAR7 is 30.8, far below the average Hall of Famer starters 47.7.  He had a career ERA+ of 105, making him just 5% better than the average starting pitcher.  He had a career ERA of 3.90 which would be the highest of any pitcher to ever make the Hall of Fame.  The arguments in his favor can be easily dispatched.  He pitched to the score, a laughable argument that has easily been disproved.  He was an ace and the best pitcher in baseball for a while and everyone knew it, yet he never finished higher than 3rd in Cy Young balloting.  He was a dominant post season pitcher.  Yet despite won awesome game 7, his career post season ERA was just 3.80, not much different from his career norms.  The man threw a ton of innings for a ton of very good teams but no way does that make him worthy of the Hall of Fame.

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