Ranking the Playoff Teams

For my playoff preview I’m going to do a ranking of the teams.  I’m going to rank the teams in order of how likely I think they all are of winning the Super Bowl.  Therefore seeding matters, because home field advantage and how many games they play matter, along with potential matchups and of course talent.  Now the rankings:

All stats found used in this piece either came from Pro Football Reference or Football Outsiders

12.   Indianapolis Colts

Look I love everything the Colts have done this year.  Andrew Luck in most seasons would be the clear winner for rookie of the year and “Chuckstrong” was the most heartwarming football story of the year.  The problem is that this team just doesn’t have the talent to win a Super Bowl.  By the website Football Outsiders metrics this team was the worst team they have ever covered with double digit wins, the team was the 25^th best team in football this season with the 18^th ranked offense, 31^st ranked defense and 12^th ranked special teams.  This team had a point differential of -30 points which equates to an expected record of 7.2-8.8.  By more traditional metrics this team ranked 18^th in points scored and 21^st in points allowed.  This team combined playing the easiest schedule in football with a record of 9-1 in games decided by 7 points or less into a playoff spot.  I do think the team could win this week because of the emotion but any more than 1 playoff win is basically impossible for a team with this little talent.

11.   Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are an interesting team.  They basically seem to be a lesser version of the Baltimore Ravens with one distinction, ADRIAN PETERSON!  This team despite having the best running back in football is quite mediocre offensively because of their weak quarterback play.  Christian Ponder despite a few good games this season has struggled for the most part.  By most metrics overall the team is quite mediocre offensively and defensively.  They are 14^th in points scored and points allowed, 20^th in yards for and 16^th in yards allowed, 14^th overall in Football Outsiders metrics, 15^th on offense and 21^st on defense.  The one advantage they do have over most teams in a 5^th ranked Special Teams.  Basically if they are going to win a playoff game they are going to need a monster game from Peterson and some game changing special teams’ plays.  A team with Christian Ponder at quarterback and a mediocre defense though isn’t winning the Super Bowl, no matter how good Adrian Peterson is.

10.   Cincinnati Bengals

There is a good argument to be made that this Bengals team should be ranked higher than this.  This team has a strong defense that in the 2^nd half of the season might have been the best in all of football, as it was the best by Football Outsiders metrics and allowed just 12.8 points per game.  However I’m still not sold on the team, they are mediocre offensively, ranking 17^th in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, ranked 12^th in points scored and 22^nd in points allowed.  Andy Dalton has been basically average the past 2 seasons, this season throwing for 27 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, with a quarterback ranking of 87.4, and a QBR(ESPN’s metric) of 50.73.  They have an average running game and one great receiver who if shutdown their entire team is dismantled.  I don’t think they are as good as they played in the 2^nd half of the season considering defensively they were awful in the season’s first half.  This team could surprise me but I see a 1^st round exit coming from the Bengals.

9.       Washington Redskins

If the Redskins didn’t have to play the Seahawks in Round 1 this team would likely be much higher.  The Redskins have an elite quarterback, an elite running game and an improving defense, however it is going to be extremely difficult for them to beat the Seahawks.  This Washington team while being quite good on offense isn’t at that same level defensively, or on special teams, where they are ranked 27^th.  When facing a well balanced team like the Seahawks, who know how to play against the read option that the Redskins utilize this, is going to be a tough task for the Redskins to overcome.  The Redskins are ranked this highly though because of Robert Griffin III.  In case you haven’t been reading every week, RGIII is probably my favorite player in all of football and has the talent to take a team on a miraculous Super Bowl run. 

8.       Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are mediocre offensively and defensively in almost every aspect, but they do have one thing going for them, the best special teams in football.  They have Joe Flacco at quarterback; a man who I’m pretty sure is the definition of an average NFL quarterback.  The team ranked 13^th in offensive DVOA, 10^th in points and 16^th in yards while defensively they ranked 19^th in DVOA, 12^th in points and 17^th in yards.  This team is only ranked ahead of the Redskins because while the Redskins play the Seahawks in the first round the Ravens get to play the Colts.  This team positively though will have the special teams advantage in every game it plays, will be playing under the context of Ray Lewis’ retirement, and knows it can beat the New England Patriots, a team it matches up surprisingly well against. 

7.       Houston Texans

Well there might not be a team playing worse going into the playoffs than the Houston Texans.  Since their week 10 victory over the Bears, the team beat the Lions and Jaguars in overtime, beat the Titans, got destroyed by the Patriots, beat the Colts and then lost to the Vikings and Colts.  This team is not the juggernaut that started the season but at this point is probably underrated.  Going into the New England game this team was 11-1 and looked like they might be the best team in all of football.  Defensively in the 2^nd half of the season while they weren’t as great as they were in the 1^st half they were still quite good.  Overall this team defensively ranked 3^rd in DVOA, 9^th in points allowed and 7^th in yards allowed.  They have by far the best defensive player in football in JJ Watt who if not for the amazing quarterback seasons and Adrian Peterson’s season would be a legit MVP candidate.  This team is quite frankly more talented than Cincinnati and should win this week because of it.  If they are able to return to their play of earlier in the season that beat Denver fairly handily, then this team could definitely make a run throughout the AFC Playoffs. 

6.       Green Bay Packers

There is a strong case that this team deserves to be ranked higher than 6^th.  This team by DVOA and was the 5^th best team in football with the 3^rd best offense, 8^th best defense and 18^th ranked special teams.  This doesn’t seem to hold up with traditional metrics that have them 5^th in points and 13^th in yards offensively while 11^th in both yards and points defensively.  This however makes more sense considering they played the 9^th most difficult schedule in football.  They have arguably the best quarterback in football in Aaron Rodgers which makes them extremely dangerous.  This defense is far improved over last year’s outfit but is fairly week against the run, something that could prove problematic against a team that plays Adrian Peterson in the 1^st round.  The team doesn’t run the ball well either, their leading runner had 464 yards, while their 2^nd leading rusher was Aaron Rodgers.  This team overall is probably better than the Falcons, but the extra game they have to play increases the difficult too much. 

5.       Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons were a team that was clearly worse than their record indicated.  The team played the easiest schedule in the NFC, went 7-2 in one score games and was just 10^th in DVOA.  However this team did go 13-3 this season and does have home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  Even if this team isn’t great, it is still very good and pretty dangerous.  It has a quarterback that while not in the top tier of NFL quarterbacks is just a little behind them in Matt Ryan.  He has weapons in Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones to deliver the ball to that should help to make up for its weak running game.  Its defense is pretty good against the pass, the far more important part of NFL defenses.  I don’t expect this team to win the NFC or the Super Bowl but they have home field advantage and a first round bye making the task a definite possibility. 

4.       Seattle Seahawks

Of all teams playing this upcoming weekend the Seahawks have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl.  Based on DVOA this is the most balanced team in football, they are 1^st in the NFL, while being 4^th in offense, 4^th in defense and 3^rd in special teams.  This team has a great rookie quarterback that runs the Read Option incredibly well, a great running back in Marshawn Lynch, and a defense that is strong against both the run and the pass.  Really if this team had a first round bye there’s a strong chance I would have considered them the favorite.  Really the only thing going against this team is that it is consistently stronger at home than it is on the road.  This team was 8-0 at home compared to 3-5, including a win in Buffalo’s yearly Toronto “home” game, on the road a considerable difference considering the team is likely going to have to win 3 road games to get to the Super Bowl and a neutral site game to win it. 

3.       San Francisco 49ers

This year’s 49ers team is very much like last year’s outfit defensively but offensively it is much improved.  This team has gone from the mediocre outfit of last year to the very good offense the team has shown this year by any metric.  The team is 11^th in both points scored and points allowed, while 5^th in DVOA, the difference showing up in the fact the 49ers play in a division that includes itself included 4 of the top 7 defenses in all of football by DVOA.  Whether that is due to the improved play of Alex Smith when he played or the quite impressive play of Collin Kaepernick when he took the helm, the offense was much improved.  This team is without question the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but faces a problem the top AFC teams do not face when it comes to getting there.  The NFC has in my mind 4 teams that could realistically come out of the conference and win the Super Bowl, while the AFC contains 2 such teams. 

2.       New England Patriots

Well here we are again; the Patriots are the 2^nd seed in the AFC and are one of the favorites for the Super Bowl.  This team has the best offense in football by almost every metric, finishing 1^st in points scored, yards and in offensive DVOA.  The defense is even improved over last year finishing 15^th in DVOA, 9^th in points allowed, and 25^th in yards allowed.  This defense is not great but the addition of Aqib Talib has made them more than respectable.  The team still has Tom Brady, the most dangerous offensive weapon in football in Rob Gronkowski along with other weapons, and even an effective running attack led by Stephen Ridley.  This team has the ability to score on anybody, and is quite close to Denver in quality.  Overall though I think the lack of home field advantage is enough to make them slight underdogs to get to the Superbowl.

1.       Denver Broncos

Now onto the football team that hasn’t lost since early October.  One of the two teams in football that by DVOA has a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense, finishing 2^nd in offense and 5^th in defense.  This team has home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs and o I forgot to mention Peyton Manning who might just be the best quarterback in football again.  This team is ranked 2^nd overall in DVOA, finishing only behind the Seahawks.  Really the only noticeable criticism of their resume would be to say they haven’t beaten anyone good.  They lost to the Falcons, Patriots and Texans early in the season, the 3 best teams they played and beat only 2 playoff teams all season, the Bengals and Ravens.  Personally I think the Broncos are just a better team than the one that lost those 3 early season games and Peyton Manning’s arm strength has increased tremendously since then.  If it I had to handicap it, as shocking as it might be, the Peyton Manning led Denver Broncos are the favorites to win the Super Bowl right now. 

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