Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore
Ravens (-6.5): Baltimore’s recent struggles (lost four of five to end the
season) are well-documented but there has been little talk about the
mightily-unimpressive Colts. In the last seven weeks of the season the Colts
split with the free-falling Texans, got annihilated by the Patriots and barely
beat the Lions, Chiefs, Bills and Titans. The Colts haven’t won a convincing
game all season, they’re a few bounces from being 4-12. So how did they end up
11-5? There are two main reasons: Luck and Luck.
The Colts have played the easiest
schedule of any playoff team and yet have found themselves down late in many of
these games. This is where the other Luck comes in, Andrew. The rookie
quarterback has led an astounding seven game-winning drives for the Colts.
Meanwhile the Ravens have had trouble beating anyone lately. For the first time
since…maybe ever, the defense looks vulnerable amidst a slew of injuries. The
offense, led by a coordinator in his fifth game and …Joe Flacco isn’t much to
fear either. The Pick: Indy may be unable to defeat very good teams or win
convincingly, but they won’t have to against this depleted Ravens squad. I
can’t fathom why this line is so high. Colts 24 Ravens 17
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati
Bengals (+4.5) : These teams couldn’t have ended the season more differently.
The Texans blew their 11-1 start and #1 seed and finished 12-4 while getting
embarrassed by the Colts and Vikings. The Bengals, on the other hand, finished
strong winning seven of their last eight. While the Bengals have played
spectacular defense (allowed only 12.75 ppg in second half of the year),
they’re most impressive wins came against banged up, underwhelming Steelers and
Bengals teams. The offense, led by second year studs A. J. Green and Andy
Dalton, is far more dangerous than the one that got thumped by Houston a year
ago.
Conversely, Houston’s defense is far weaker
than it was a year ago or even a few weeks ago. After allowing 23 or more
points only twice in the first nine games, the Texans have done so in five of
the last seven games.
The Pick: The Bengals have a chance
to break one of the most embarrassing streaks in the NFL this weekend (22 years
without a playoff win) and they will Bengals 27 Texans 17.
Washington Redskins vs. Seattle
Seahawks (-3) : Last year T.J. Yates and Andy Dalton faced off in the first
ever matchup of two rookies in a playoff game. Somehow I think the second such
matchup will have more appeal. Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson will face
off in a battle of what could be the two best rookie quarterbacks of all time.
Wilson tied Peyton Manning’s rookie record for touchdown passes (with 18 less
interceptions, yes 18) while RG III brought the Redskins to life and gave DC
area fans something to get excited about for the first time since Gus Frerrotte’s
heyday.
This is a tough game to preview for a few
reasons; not the least of which is the bi-polar Seahawks. They went undefeated
at home this season but were very beatable on the road. At the peak of their
powers they appear to be a historically good team. They can throw, run with the
QB and their 1500-yard-gaining- RB (Lynch). They play stellar D with a
ferocious pass rush led by Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin as well as the best
cornerback duo in the game with Richard Sherman and Walter Thurmond. Similarly,
the Redskins have a two-head rushing attack and a quarterback who makes very
few mistakes. But, as was evidenced in the game against the Cowboys, RG III is
not totally healthy. If the Seahawks are able to contain Morris (which they’ve
been able to do against most RB’s), they’ll have the Redskins backed into a
corner.
The Pick: RG III has had a phenomenal
season as have the Redskins as a whole, but the Seahawks appear to be Super Bowl
contenders this year and will prove to be too much for the Skins to handle.
Seattle 28 Washington 14
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota
Vikings (+7.5)
Although this is a matchup of teams
that were one win apart and split games late in the season, one team is heavily
favored over the other. This is not without good reason, however. The NFL is a
quarterback-driven league and Aaron Rodgers is quite a step ahead of Christian
Ponder. Yes, Ponder played well last week but things will be different on the
road in an outdoor stadium in Green Bay in a playoff game.
Adrian Peterson appears to be enough
to overcome any quarterback deficiency the Vikings may have but how will his
body respond to the 34 carries he received last week? While many believe
Peterson to be some sort of alien or cyborg, his humanity will be tested this
weekend when he’ll almost surely be handed 24+ carries for the fifth week in a
row.
The Pick: In the end, it comes down
to the fact that Aaron Rodgers is among the best in the business and the
Packers are just a better team. Green Bay 31 Minnesota 20
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