Divisional Round Preivew

And then there were eight.

  The divisional round of the playoffs is upon us and we’ll be treated to some classic storylines. Arguably the best offensive and defensive players of this generation will face off one last time as the Colts will take on the Ravens. The Texans will look to avenge a 42-14 shellacking on Monday Night Football when they take on the Patriots this weekend. The upstart Seahawks and rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will be surprising no one this weekend if they’re able to beat top-seed Atlanta on the road. Then, in a rematch of week one this season and countless playoff games in the nineties, the Packers will take on the 49ers.  
 The divisional round is good for at least one upset every year; usually one no one sees coming. Sometime this weekend, we’ll see a clear picture of what the Super Bowl matchup could look like. So who will advance to the conference championship round?

San Francisco vs. Green Bay (+3)

Why San Fran should win: The 49ers had seemingly no trouble in slowing down Aaron Rodgers and Co. week one and ran the ball with relative ease. They’re still able to do everything they did in that game if they’re able to get a lead early. The only thing that’s changed is, with Kaepernick behind center, they’re much more able to jump out to an early lead. The Nevada product also gives the Niners a better ability to keep up with the Packers if it becomes a shoot-out. While Kaepernick may not be as dangerous as Rodgers, he’s showed against the Patriots that he has the ability to go throw for throw with top-tier quarterbacks. In addition, the Niners will likely get Justin Smith back from injury. While Smith may not be totally healthy, he should be a welcome addition to a defense that obviously needs him to remain elite.

Why Green Bay should win: In Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have the best quarterback in the world right now. Despite throwing the ball more often than nearly everyone in the league and playing behind a putrid line, Rodgers managed to be one of the best at avoiding turnovers yet again. His regular season numbers speak for themselves (39 TD 8 INT 4295 yards 67.2 %), Rodgers is truly a remarkable passer. Meanwhile, Randall Cobb has emerged as a threat in the passing game to go along with the now healthy receiving corps of James Jones, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley. In other good news, last week the Pack did two things they’ve struggled for two years to do; they ran the ball well and they stopped the run. Neither of these are small tasks against the Vikings. If the O-line is able to hold up against Justin Smith and Co. and they’re able to get to Kaepernick, the Packers should be able handle the Niners.

The Pick: The Niners defense has been a shell of itself since Justin Smith went down with that injury and if there’s any sort of weakness in the defense, Rodgers will tear them apart. In the end, a semi-healthy Green bay offense is to be trusted over a semi-healthy San Fran defense.

Seattle vs. Atlanta (-2.5)

Why Seattle should win: The Seahawks will be without star pass rusher Chris Clemons when they take the field Sunday. However they will still have the three best defensive players between the teams in Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner and Bruce Irvin. Russell Wilson is on a six-week stretch of playing as well or better than any rookie has ever played and Marshawn Lynch is riding a career year at RB. The Seahawks have the ability to take away Atlanta’s greatest strength as they can neutralize Julio Jones and Roddy White with fantastic coverage and a dangerous pass rush.  It seems like Seattle has every conceivable matchup advantage and, for what it’s worth, they have “momentum/Mojo” going into the matchup.

Why Atlanta should win: The Falcons may not have been impressive in beating many of their opponents this year but, they did gain a lot of experience in playing in close games. They rarely lost all season and they have a QB with a knack for late-game heroics. When it’s all said and done, the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. Matt Ryan is still an advantage over Russell Wilson at this point.

The Pick: I’m not going to go into any “Falcons or Matt Ryan can’t win in the playoffs” narrative. They’ll just have the unfortunate luck of drawing the future NFC champion for the fourth consecutive time. Seahawks 31 Falcons 17

Denver vs. Baltimore (+9.5)-

Why Denver will win: After a slow start, the Broncos have been an absolute wrecking crew over the past 11 weeks. They’ve been incredible in all three phases of the game and improved vastly as the season has gone on. Peyton Manning is as good as he’s ever been in leading what was an awful Bronco offense in 2011, to the second best season of any offense in the league in 2012. The run game hasn’t been particularly dangerous but that hardly matters when you have a quarterback who throws for 37 touchdowns and completes nearly 67% of his passes. The defense, especially the pass rush, has gotten much better as the season has gone on and is now among the best units in the league. They gave Joe Flacco fits in a commanding win over the Ravens a month ago. That game, which was 31-3 when John Fox called the dogs off, showed exactly why the Broncos should steam roll the Ravens. Baltimore has no way of stopping Manning and the Broncos can easily pressure and stop the Ravens.

Why Baltimore should win: I have almost nothing for this. They’re only chance is if the o-line has a big day opening up holes for Ray Rice and keeping Flacco upright enough for the Ravens to control the clock. Although they have Ray Lewis again, they’re only chance of stopping Manning is for him to stop himself. This is something we rarely see out of the four-time MVP. The Ravens best hope is for Lewis’s impending retirement to have some sort of inspirational effect on the entire team.

The Pick: The Ravens have an average offense and contrary to popular belief…an average defense. They just won’t be able to handle the elite units of the Broncos. Denver 34 Baltimore 17

New England over Houston(9.5)-

Why New England should win: Tom Brady has the chance to break Joe Montana’s record for most career playoff wins here. This didn’t happen by accident, the Patriots show up in January. The pats have, by far, the league’s best offense with a solid enough defense to compliment it. Brady is playing at his usual hall of fame level while Welker and Hernandez have been as solid as always. Gronkowski is finally healthy and Steven Ridley is the best back the Pats have had since Corey Dillon. There’s no reason anything should be different from the 42-12 beating they gave Houston a few weeks ago.

Why the Houston should win: Brady and the Pats have made mincemeat of teams who weren’t up to playoff level over the years (11 Denver, 07 Jags, 06 Jets, 05 Jags) but they’ve struggled against slightly above average teams with good defenses in recent years (11 Ravens, 10 Jets, 09 Ravens, 07 Giants). Houston played well below their capable level the last four weeks of the season, starting with the Monday night loss to the Pats. But, the defense rebounded with an impressive effort against Andy Dalton last week. If Foster is as dangerous as he was last week and the defense is as stifling, the Texans have at least a fighting chance against the Patriots.

The Pick: There’s no reason the Patriots shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball against the rejuvenated Texans D, especially if Gronk is fully healthy. Houston’s only chance is for Matt Schaub to finally turn things around go punch for punch with Brady. Don’t count on it. Patriots 35 Texans 20