Thursday, January 17, 2013

The Lackluster AFC and the Super Bowl Picks


            A league that once prided itself on parity is now sorely lacking in it. Three of the four teams from last year’s conference championship games will be back again this year while Atlanta is no surprise in joining them. A lack of parity wouldn’t be such a problem if we were dealing with juggernauts going head to head but that’s just not the case. The Ravens were just plain bad for the second half of the regular season and they’ve capitalized on a playing teams that either didn’t belong in the playoffs (Colts) or were playing their worst game of the season (Peyton Manning angrily shakes his fist). They’re just about the most boring/least compelling team (aside from the Lewis fiasco) of the twelve that qualified for the playoffs.

 On the other side, the Patriots will be playing in the AFC Championship for what feels like the 13th year in a row. It’s not that the Patriots aren’t compelling or aren’t complete it’s just they haven’t faced a challenge in the AFC in the past few years. Don’t believe me? The quarterbacks the Pats have faced in the AFC playoffs since 2007 have been David Garrard, Phillip Rivers with a torn ACL, Joe Flacco (loss), Mark Sanchez (loss), Tim Tebow, Joe Flacco, Lobotomized Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco again. Wow, that’s some light competition in a quarterback-driven league.

The truth of the matter is, the football in the AFC has been a tarnished product for the past couple years and could be even more so in the next couple.

 Two years ago the Steelers started getting old and the Colts (who weren’t at all complete to begin with) lost Peyton Manning and no one has stepped up to rival the Patriots since. The Jets had a cute two-year run (even knocked the Pats out of the playoffs) but they’ve fallen off; the Ravens give the Pats a run and seem to be in the thick of things every year but they always fall short. They’ve just never seemed like a Super Bowl team. Yet, they’ve been the second most successful team of the past five years.

In each of the last two years, the Bengals have made the playoffs and have been promptly embarrassed each time. They’ve now made the playoffs three of the last four years almost exclusively by beating every bad team on their schedule. Their best wins of the two-year stretch were over Baltimore and Washington (only wins over playoff teams) but the Washington game was only the fourth game of RG III’s career and the Ravens had already clinched the division and were starting Tyrod Taylor. The Bengals could improve and become a quality foe and a playoff contender; but they’ve had no business in the playoffs the past two years.

The Texans have had 10+ wins and a playoff victory in each of the last two seasons but have failed to reach the AFC Championship both times. Perhaps they’re just young and inexperienced or perhaps they aren’t as good as we initially thought. Matt Schaub doesn’t look the part of a Super Bowl contender and it’s hard to say he’s still improving at age 31. Foster may have already been run into the ground and the o-line and defense weren’t as stout as they were last year. It’s hard to see the Texans contending for the Super Bowl within the next two years.

The Broncos have now won two-consecutive division titles, albeit under entirely different circumstances. Last year they were able to defeat a helplessly-injured Steelers team (that’ll happen when you’re that old) before getting demolished by the Pats. But this year was supposed to be different. Peyton Manning wasn’t the only thing added to the picture; the defense became one of the top units in the league. But, in true AFC fashion, the team folded against a totally average Ravens team.

So the Pats will likely march on to the Super Bowl woefully untested yet again (last year the AFC Championship was their first win against a team with a winning record). And maybe they’ll win this time. The AFC sure could use a Super Bowl victory; the NFC has won three straight and looks to have a stranglehold on the future. The Pats (or by some miracle, the Ravens) need to win this Super Bowl just to avoid a 1980’s-esche streak in favor of the NFC (when the NFC won 13 consecutive Super Bowls, 11 by double digits). The future of the AFC is beginning to look bleak. The Ravens and Texans may still compete but don’t seem to be Super Bowl contenders. The Bengals still have a lot of improving to do if they hope to make the playoffs. The Colts will likely regress next year (they were the worst 11-win team of all time according to Football Outsiders) while their future as a Super Bowl contender remains to be seen. The Pats look as strong as ever but Brady is creeping further away from 30 and inching towards the dreaded number 40. The same goes for Peyton Manning and the Broncos while a quick survey of the rest of the AFC turns up little hope for the immediate future. The Jaguars and Chargers are starting over, the Steelers and Titans look to be a year away from realizing they have to start over, the Raiders and Chiefs are a total mess and the Jets and Bills have talent but are lacking key components. That leaves the Miami Dolphins as the AFC’s current best hope for the future. Look out America, here comes Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hartline!

The NFC on the other hand…

Despite seemingly being contenders forever, the Falcons are led by fifth-year quarterback Matt Ryan. The 49ers have a young and oober-talented Coach/QB combo in Kaepernick and Harbaugh and they could be headed for an early Lombardi trophy to kick off their partnership. The Seahawks are as talented and complete as any team in the league and nearly made the NFC Championship with a rookie quarterback. Meanwhile, does anyone think the Giants are done? Or that we won’t hear from RG III again? The Saints had an off year because of Payton’s suspension but Brees and Co. will be back in full force next The Bears and Vikings still have enough talent to make a run while the Lions should not be forgotten about. Even the Rams gave teams trouble this year and vastly improved from last year.

Things can change in an instant in the NFL as we’ve been shown so many times before. The AFC better hope this hold true as they are not nearly as set up for the future as the NFC.

The Picks:

Patriots vs. Ravens: No matter how much ESPN tries to jam it down our throats this week, the storyline should not be; Patriots offense vs. Ravens Defense. The Ravens defense is totally average, they’re not the unit they have been in the past. The Pats are without Gronk but Brady, Welker, Lloyd and Co. should be enough to out-score the Flacco-led Ravens. Pats 35 Ravens 20

Atlanta vs. San Francisco: Kaepernick’s performance against the Packers is worth mentioning here as the greatest playoff performance ever by a first-year quarterback. But people will likely forget about that if he isn’t able to lift the Niners over Atlanta this week. Alex Smith was benched after leading the team to the NFC Championship last year. Harbaugh and Co. didn’t want another championship game loss. They want to go all the way and that’s why they started Kaepernick. Harbaugh’s decision will be vindicated when he leads the team to  their first Super Bowl appearance in 18 years. San Francisco 31 Atlanta 28
Stay Hungry, My Friends

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