Week 4 Picks

Hey everybody! Can you believe it's already week four of the delightfully strange 2012 NFL season? Yeah me neither. Well week three ended in quite some fashion sunday and monday night huh? Well, because of that we get our old buddy Ed Hochuli back! (Wait that guy everyone hated in 2008 until they were distracted by his toned chiselled ....)
Anyway here are my Week 4 picks against the spread.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-12)- Well we've already seen the finish to this one and (not so) suprisingly the Ravens didn't cover the spread. I know it may seem like the 0-4 Browns are by far the worst team in the NFL but interestingly enough, they've only lost those games by a combined 25 points. They've been in each game so far and have even had the ball in a position to tie/win in three of them. Of course Mr. Weeden has been unable to close in all of them. Don't read too much into the close point total; there's a reason the Browns are 0-4. Teams with quarterbacks and receiving corps this bad don't win.

Atlanta over Carolina (+7)- Is it just me or have the Falcons finally arrived? It seems as though they have a legitimate chance to be the best team in the NFC for the second time in three years. The only difference from 2010 would be that there's no one waiting to stomp on their souls in the first round of the playoffs. The Saints are bad, the Packers haven't looked the same, the 49ers can't play from behind and the NFC East isn't to be trusted. Matt Ryan's starting to look like an MVP candidate and this offense looks as good as anyone. Oh and they're only favored by 7 at home? Bet the farm on them covering against Cam "I can't win all by my damn self" Newton.

New England over Buffalo (+4) I didn't want to do this, I had to. The Patriots haven't lost three games in a row since I was in 4th grade. Something fishy is going on in New England. They've lost two in a row, they're having trouble closing games, Tom Brady looks ordinary, Rob Gronkowski isn't playing like a cross between Thor and Jerry Rice. Trust me, something's up and I don't like it. Some of you are going to say this is the end of New England's time as a powerhouse, maybe the Bills are just better. I know better than that. I'm on to you New England...you're not fooling me this time.

Minnesota over Detroit (-4.5) I know Detroit is at home and everything but I couldn't think of anything this year that made me believe Detroit was really better than Minnesota. I can't really explain it but the Vikings have been playing very well this year. They seem to have the "we now believe in quarterback" voodoo ability going on right now. Meanwhile the Lions look like a one trick pony and half of that pony may or may not have skin made of paper and bones made of glass. It's hard not to take the Vikings here especially because Peterson hasn't even fully recovered yet. Can you say sleeper? (I sure hope you can, relatively easy to pronounce)

San Diego over Kansas City (-1) Trust me I don't ever like picking AFC West teams so that makes this game really tough. I guess in the end I just have to go with the team that's not Kansas City. Yes, going with the team that didn't get embarassed by the Bills seems like the right way to go.

Seattle over St. Louis (+2.5) Although monday night was freakin awesome; I'm not sold on Seattle as a contender just yet. First of all I'd like to see them win a tough road game. But also I'd like to see Wilson not play like a steaming pile of dogshit for three quarters. Seattle has a solid run game, above average special teams and possibly a very good defense. They just need Wilson to be servicable for the first three quarters. They're not going to get 8 sacks and 45 favorable calls every game (by the way to all those Seattle fans saying that this call made up for Super Bowl 40....ummm no....that was the Super Bowl, this was week 3). On the other hand St. Louis has been downright frisky thus far. They look like a Jeff Fisher led team albeit a little short on talent. Cortland Finnegan has been doing Cortland Finnegan things and they have one the league's leading receivers in Danny Amendola. I don't feel great about this pick, watch out for those Rams.

San Francisco over New York Jets (+4) I'm totally banking on New York just being so down on Revis's injury that they can't even get up for a home game. This could be a make or break injury for Rex Ryan. If he can rite the ship and get the Jets to the playoffs without Revis, he'll look like a genius. If not, he'll likely be seeking employment elsewhere. The Niners aren't exactly the team you want to face minus your best player. They showed some vulnerability last week when falling behind early but this may not be an issue with the Jets. You see, the Jets offense doesn't score and the Niners don't really turn the ball over. This may just be too much for the Jets to overcome.

Houston over Tennessee (+12) This is the best of opportunities for Jake Locker to show that he's one of the big boys in the NFL. 380 yards and an OT win last week? Sorry, the Lions d is just a warm-up. Now he gets to go against what may be the best defensive unit in the league led by the best defensive player in the league thus far, J.J Watt. I'm going to see more from Locker and the Titans in general before I pick them to cover against the most solid team in the AFC. I'm looking for Houston to come out and take care of business like they have every week thus far. Something in the 34-14 range sounds about right.

Denver over Oakland (+6.5) Peyton Manning has had bad games before, sometimes a few in a row. But I can't see Peyton having two below average games in a row and then not destroying the Raiders, I just can't. This looks to be a vintage Peyton performance (the kind he used to put on against Denver) where he throws for 4 td's and 300 yards. Maybe not, maybe he is done. But he's done too much in his career to not earn the benefit of the doubt at this point. I don't think he'll be anything resembling an MVP this season but these Raiders might really be in trouble.

Arizona over Miami (5.5) Every year one or more team has a hot, unexpected 3-0ish start only to flame out by mid-November (I know this because it's usually the Bills) but it's difficult to tell which team that will be. Is Arizona the unexpected contender or are they destined to flame out? They couldn't possibly be a fluke after beating the Pats and Eagles right? After all, who beats such good teams early and misses the playoffs....(fuckin Bills). The defense seems to be the catalyst right now as they've dominated everyone they've played thus far. But, at the end of they day this is still a quarterback driven league. Kolb (or Skelton) is going to have to prove that he's a capable starter at this level. Teams don't win by getting pick sixes and return touchdowns every game no matter how good Patrick Peterson is. Additionally Ryan (battering ram) Williams hasn't proven to be any type of force to be reckoned with running the ball yet. Eventually Kolb is going to have to make difficult high pressure throws or the Cardinals will cease to amamze. But with the defense looking as good as it does right now that time might not come until January. Oh and for the record, they're going to give Tannehill nightmares sunday.

Cincinnati over Jacksonville (+2.5) I'm no longer sure about this whole sophomore slump things for Cincinnati. They look like an improved team so far, a team on it's way up. They may again be a playoff team. Meanwhile Blaine Gabbert has looked halfway decent in two of the three games thus far (and beyond putrid in the other so don't get too excited). This game's going to come down to whether or not Cincinnati can contain the incredibly dangerous Maurice Jones-Drew. If so this game could turn into every Jaguars fan (all 40 of them) lamenting the team's decision to take Lil Mr. Pisspants over the Red Rifle in last year's draft.

Green Bay over New Orleans (+7.5) I'm guessing the schedule makers didn't expect these teams to be a combined 1-5 when they planned this game huh?Don't look now but the Packers have had three bad offensive games in a row. Yes they may have played three of the league's best defenses already but should that matter to a juggernaut like Green Bay? Meanwhile the Saints look horrible, especially on defense. I just don't see the Packers playing another poor offensive game. Look for Aaron Rodgers to break the slump against a historically bad Saints defense.

Washington over Tampa Bay (-2.5) While RG3 looks as good as advertised thus far, I'm not totally sold on this Redskins team yet. In fact I don't think firing Mike Shanahan is such a bad idea. But I am expecting them to win this week by quite a margin. I think we're only one or two weeks away from realizing that Tampa is really, gruesomely bad. Like, 2011 Tampa bay bad. For some reason people thought the Bucs would majorly turn things around once Raheem Morris was gone. But his firing didn't fix Josh Freeman who is more than obviously broken. The jury is still out on their defense but the way Mr. Freeman has looked so far, it won't matter. The only thing is, the NFC South is so bad the Bucs may end up in second (a la the 2007 Bills).

New York over Philly (-2.5) Anyone want to explain to me why this Eagles team is favored to beat the Giants? Anyone? I got time.....This line is a joke. Through three weeks this looks like a 7 win team if they're lucky, which they totally have been so far. The Giants looked the part of Super Bowl champion last thursday in demolishing the Panthers. The Eagles had a win handed to them by the oh so genorous Mr. Weeden (Weeden Claus! Free wins for everyone!), then beat Baltimore on some fishy calls (who were those refs anyway?) and then got handled by the Cardinals. Vick looks atrocious, the defense looks average and Andy Reid just looks like hell. My only concern with this pick is if the Giants do that things were Eli throws 3 picks and they just no-show.

Chicago over Dallas (-3.5) I'm picking the Bears to at least cover here for two big reasons.
1. Jay Cutler has had two not so pretty games in a row and has had plenty of time to pout-er I mean reflect. Plus he's do for an above average game.
2. The Cowboys won opening night....but did that cause people to forget the Cowboys don't win night games usually? These are still the same Cowboys everyone. The fun part is deciding how they're going to blow this one. My guess is penalties. We haven't that from them in a while.
This should be an exciting one though, two of the most wildly inconsistent quarterbacks in the biz facing off on monday night. I can't wait to hear what ridiculously obvious/incorrect things Jon Gruden has to say about it.
Stay Hungry My Friends

Not So Super Being Super

I think we can all agree that Batman is awesome, and if you disagree shut the hell up because no one really cares what you think. However Bats best super bud Superman gets a lot of shit from respectable intelligent people who unfortunately become idiots when it comes to dealing with the man. I have a close friend who finds Supes completely unrelatable, and believes that he is a dull character who doesn't have to worry about anything because he goes into fights knowing that he cannot lose. You know what I used to be one of those people too, because why cheer for the God who cannot be killed through earthly means, when I can cheer for a guy who puts on a mask and risks his life night after night. Then a friend of mine explained to me why exactly superman was his favorite superhero. I don't have the time or the effort to go into the details but it is the first time that I saw Superman as being deeper and more complex than he first appears to be. He is an incredibly complex character with amazing abilities but also with incredible faults, and weaknesses other than kryptonite. Christopher Nolan has been quoted as stating that Batman is how the World sees the United States and Superman is how the United States sees the United States. I think Superman is much more than that though. Superman is the United States. He is a person that as a child emigrated from his homeland because it was in ruins to America. He was raised in a secluded rural society where he showed potential of being the Superman of the future. After he becomes independent from his mother and moves away from her, he doesn't automatically go to Metropolis and becomes Superman. He instead moves away from the world creates the fortress of solitude where he focuses on bettering himself, and his understanding of his own power, and the world. He then leaves his isolation to literally become the World's greatest superpower. That is seriously a brief and simplified version of the History of the United States. So anyone American that has a sense of American history should be able to relate to Superman. Now I know that not everyone is a history buff like I am and would say something along the lines of "Pat, no one besides you likes history, its a stupid subject that doesn't mean anything, and I cannot relate to the very closed minded people of the past." I would then stop talking to them at that point, but I do understand what they are getting at and just because Superman resembles the history of our great nation doesn't mean everyone has to relate to him. I'm a 19 year old kid with a pretty total understanding of only two things: Stress and Pressure. Imagine just for one second that you are Superman. You would think its great wouldn't you? You can practically do anything because their is absolutely no limit to your potential and power. Then out of no where with you supersonic hearing you hear someone scream HELP! from the other side of the country. You fly as fast as you absolutely can to the place where you heard the scream come from and when you arrive you get there just in time to see a train completely run through a Semi-Truck that was caught on the tracks. This force of the impact causes this passenger train to derail and kill over a hundred innocent lives. Do you know who is going to take the blame? It won't be the semi driver, it won't be the train conductor, it will be you Superman. It will be your fault you didn't save all those people. You have one job and one job only and you failed. This is Superman's life. Everyone has this idea that he cannot lose, and that he will never lose, and if he does lose everyone will hate him. Superman might be your all around greatest Superhero, but he carries the entire weight of the world on his shoulders. When Batman doesn't get there in time its ok because no one expects Batman to be able to save everyone. Except everyone expects that out of Superman. The amount of pressure on Superman everyday is incredible. However who hasn't felt that way in there life at some point. A feeling that if you mess up, your life will be ruined, that its a no lose situation, this is everything from getting into a good college, getting a good job,maintaining that job, climbing up the corporate latter. Being in charge of people who you have to lead into combat. Superman's pressure is more than anyone has experienced, but the fact that we have all experienced pressure and the stress that comes with the desire to succeed gives us an understanding what it is like to be Supermen. "Alright Pat, whatever, he still cannot physically lose a fight. Unless there is Kryptonite, but thats unlikely, why would he care about pressure when nothing will ever effect him?" My response other than to really quit talking to people who speak utter nonsense would be that Superman does have a consciousness. He is still a being who thinks and feels. Superman isn't invincible, he can be driven to the absolute brink of his mentality. If you set off bombs because you hate Superman and thousands die he still feels the result of the that. He feels the guilt, the depression, the hopelessness. However he cannot show that side of himself because if Superman is in a panic then shit will really hit the fan. He has to hide his fears, and doubts, and weakness and give off this air of superiority and calmness, so that the world doesn't fall apart around him. There must be times he feels like he must fly away and leave earth because it is so daunting on him but you would never know because he hides that so that you can feel safe knowing Superman is there to protect you. I think a lot of people in leadership positions can get an idea of what Superman feels like. If they show the people they are leading that they are afraid that they don't know what they are doing is the really right then a panic will in sue. We hide our true faces so that everyone feels safe and sound. Who has never felt alone. I know Superman has. Growing up he had to feel like what was happening to him and to his body was only happening to him. Now I want everyone to look back on their years in middle school and tell me that you didn't have this thought, because you did; because everyone did. Even as an adult Superman must look at the entire human race, and see our friendships, our families, our communities, our societies, and our identity as human beings and feel like he is just outside that. That he tries so hard to fit in, but at the end of the day he cannot because he is ultimately different. He is the last of his kind, and he loves humans, and earth, but he must feel like their is something missing in his life, and that he is truly alone in this world. I know I have felt that I am the only person who has understood me, that I am alone even though I am surrounded by people who care and love me. I have felt like something was missing, and I think I am not the only person who has felt these things. Superman is a character for the lonely for those who feel left outside of society and hurt by it. There is a reason why Superman is from a different planet and did not gain his powers because of a reason on earth. That is reason is because there is only about one man in the entire galaxy that can take all the stress, and all the pressure, and all the loneliness and not only preserve and endure it but accepts it. He realizes that he is a faulted man that even though he may be physically invulnerable, he is still suspectible to mental and emotional damage and weakness. He is Superman not because of his physicality, but because of the amount of will, determination, moral fortitude, mental and emotional strength and courage to be him for one day that they only way to describe it is SUPER. Stay Hungry My Friends.

NFL Weekly Recap: Week 3/Replacement Ref Debacle

My thoughts on this week’s refs come right before my recaps of the Sunday and Monday Night games, the most controversial of them.  Now the games:

New York Giants over Carolina Panthers:

The Giants are going to pull together there unpredictable win in their dominant effort over the Panthers.  Week to week it will difficult to predict how this team plays, but the team has talent on both sides of the ball and is very difficult to play against.  The Panthers to me are a team that is going to live and die by Cam Newton, a quarterback since that start of last season hasn’t been that good.  It is a worrisome game for the Panthers, but it could just be a case of not being able to get a good enough game plan in place for a Thursday Night Game.

Jacksonville Jaguars over Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars were able to pull off the upset of Andrew Luck and the Colts in a game that featured multiple big plays.  The Colts were able to get a long score, Maurice Jones-Drew ran for a big touchdown and Blaine Gabbert completed an 80 yard touchdown to Cecil Shorts with less than a minute left to win the game.  The Colts look like a flawed team with some weaknesses that will prevent the team from competing in many winnable games this year.  However it’s hard not to be excited about the play of Andrew Luck 3 games into his career.  His play is one of a quarterback that will be the player everybody has been expecting for the past 2 years.  Now to the Jaguars, for one Maurice Jones-Drew is back and just as good as ever which is a delight to all Jaguars fans out there.  Blaine Gabbert’s performance leaves me bewildered.  Last year I thought he was a definite bust, but this season his performances have to me only confused the issue.  He has shown a few flashes of being a good quarterback but at other times has looked suspiciously like the quarterback from last season.

Buffalo Bills over Cleveland Browns

As a Bills fan coming out of this game all I can feel is relief that they were able to get the win in a road game that they had to have.  While CJ Spiller got injured, a terrifying moment for Bills fans, the injury doesn’t seem to be as bad as initially thought.  The Bills looked good in the effort; the defensive line made some big plays and showed some flashes that they might be the dominant unit they were expected to be.  The Browns came off as a flawed, but tough and resilient team.  They fell behind early 14-0, but didn’t go away and at one point made it a 3 point game before the Bills but the game away.  Brandon Weeden wasn’t totally awful, but will have to improve quickly if he is going to be worth the high draft choice they gave him.

New York Jets over Miami Dolphins

The Jets won a game that they probably shouldn’t have but have much bigger worries after the results of the game.  Darrell Revis has torn his ACL, a killer injury for a team that built its defense around his abilities as the best corner in all of football.  Now the team has a much worse defense, and has to deal with the ever growing debate between Sanchez and Tebow.  The Jets despite leading the division at 2-1 are in a precarious position where it feels like there season could collapse at any second.  The Dolphins have to be feeling bad after losing a game that probably should have been theirs.  Miami has a solid defense and running attack that if it was able to be backed up by decent quarterback play would be quite dangerous.  However Ryan Tannehill is definitely not an NFL starting quarterback as of now and it’s too early to say whether he ever will be. 

Kansas City Chiefs over New Orleans Saints

Wow this season just keeps on getting worse and worse for the Saints.  The team is now 0-3 and in a strengthen NFC it is going to be extremely difficult for the team to make the playoffs.  The Saints seem to be reeling from the loss of Head Coach Sean Payton, whose value is quite obvious now.  The defense is quite bad, unable to stop anybody, and the offense just isn’t as sharp as it was last season.  The Chiefs on the other hand I still am not that impressed with.  They were able to beat a team without their head coach or interim head coach by a field goal in a game where their running back Jamaal Charles had the game of his life.  The Chiefs can’t expect production like that on a consistent basis but it might be the type of play they need if they want to win.

Cincinnati Bengals over Washington Redskins

The Bengals with their victory over the Redskins proved that they might just be a little better than I thought.  While to legitimately prove that to me they will have to be a team that is definitely, the offensive fire power they showed off against the Redskins is impressive.  With playmakers like AJ Green and Andrew Hawkins among others this team has some real talent.  The Redskins showed themselves as a team entirely dependent on RGIII as they don’t have much else on offense and defensively it doesn’t look like they will be able to cover anybody.  You have to be happy as a Redskins fan though knowing you will be watching RGIII for a long time to come.

Tennessee Titans over Detroit Lions

The Titans won in a game that saw them get 2 special teams’ touchdowns and a defensive touchdown; they probably weren’t the better team.  However they got those points and more power to them as they pulled off the upset of the Lions.  The most encouraging thing about the game is that Jake Locker played the type of game that scouts salivated over when he was in college, showing off his athleticism and arm strength in leading the Titans to victory.  The Lions have some worries as Matt Stafford left the game with an injury as his current status is still unknown.  The Lions defense is quite bad; they are going to have problems stopping teams passing the ball all season. 

Minnesota Vikings over San Francisco 49ers

The Vikings beat the 49ers because quite simply they were the better team on the field.  They beat the 49ers at their own game in winning the physical battle.  Christian Ponder was phenomenal as he led the Vikings up and down the field playing outstanding against an amazing defense.  If I was a Vikings fan I would be ecstatic about the idea of him as my long-term quarterback.  For the 49ers I would say that this game just showed the major flaw of this team, with Alex Smith at quarterback they have major problems coming from behind.  If the team is forced to pass the ball then their entire playing style is thrown off and it fundamentally changes the team.  The team is still a great team; all this week showed is that without question the team is quite beatable. 

Chicago Bears over St. Louis Rams

This game represented one thing; the Chicago Bears defense is still very good and will keep the team in contention all year.  While Cutler will struggle at points, and the offensive line is always shaky, the defense will always put forth a consistently reliable effort to keep the team in the game.  The Bears can matchup with almost any team and any given week could beat anybody.  The Rams couldn’t move the ball against the Bears, which I’m not sure, is something to be really ashamed of.  What to really make of the Rams will be coming in the future when they play teams that they matchup better with.

Dallas Cowboys over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cowboys defense played tough in a hard fought much needed win against a team that has played 3 close games winning 1 and losing 2.  The Cowboys defense played well while the offense did just enough to get by.  Tony Romo played pretty good, especially considering the pass rush and the lack of protection he had to deal with all game.  If I am a Cowboys fan then right now my biggest worry isn’t Romo, a good quarterback who is pretty reliable, but with the offensive line that doesn’t seem to be opening up holes for Murray or protecting Romo.  For Tampa this game is a case of the offensive not being able to put enough points on the board as Josh Freeman struggled again.  Freeman will have to improve if Tampa wants to start winning these games, while he has cut down from some of the turnovers from last season he still isn’t making plays to win these games.  Tampa is an improved roster as the defense can hang with most teams, but the offense has to catch up.

Atlanta Falcons over San Diego Chargers

In what was probably their most impressive win of the season, the Falcons had a dominating effort as the Chargers finally lose a game in September.  Matt Ryan is starting this season looking like an early favorite for the MVP and if the team continues playing like this then there is a good chance he will be in the running till the season’s end.  The offensive is explosive with playmakers like Roddy White and Julio Jones and the defensive is a respectable unit that just completely shut down the Chargers.  The Chargers predictably faltered in a September game, the tradition of the Norv Turner Era.  I’m honestly not sure if this is a sign of things to come for the team, or if this is just an aberration.  One thing I do believe is that this Chargers team is not as talented as some of the ones in recent history that got off to poor starts. 

Arizona Cardinals over Philadelphia Eagles

After their dominating victory over the Eagles I think it is fair to say that the Arizona Cardinals are for real and are a contender in the NFC.  I’m still not sure the offense is that good and if the team has any real playmakers outside of Larry Fitzgerald, but wow is this defense good.  The job they have done against the Eagles and Patriots defensively is beyond impressive and the team has earned its 3-0 mark.  For the Eagles the game seems like an indication that their fundamental flaw, turnovers, won’t be going away any time soon.  Vick’s playing style means he is going to turn the ball over on a fairly consistent basis, a recipe for disaster in the NFL.  Andy Reid is even saying that “We’ll evaluate it as we go” in regard to the quarterback position, not exacting a huge endorsement of Michael Vick. 

Oakland Raiders over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Raiders won a big game that saw them come back continuously against the Steelers to get their first win of the season.  Carson Palmer and Darren McFadden had huge games for the Raiders and showed that this team won’t just go away.  I still don’t love this team and don’t think they are a playoff contender but they went out and won this game that they basically needed to.  The Steelers lost a tough game despite a huge performance from Ben Roethlisberger who might be the leader for MVP right now.  The Steelers defense struggled immensely, but a lot of that likely has to do with missing their two best defensive players, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.  The Steelers running game and offensive line on the other hand are issues that might plague them all season but I still see the Steelers as a top Super Bowl contender.

Houston Texans over Denver Broncos

The Texans won a big road game against a tough foe and move to 3-0 this season and seem to be the class of the AFC.  They got out to a big lead and were able to hold on late despite a furious comeback attempt by Peyton Manning and the Broncos.  The Texans have a talented offense with playmakers in the backfield, a good quarterback, and some talented receivers.  They have a defense that can generate pressure on the quarterback and is a dominant front 7.  To me after 3 weeks of action this team looks like the best team in the AFC and has to be considered a Super Bowl favorite.  The Broncos for a 3^rd consecutive week struggled on the outset but were able to lead a comeback attempt which for the 2^nd straight week fell short.  The defense hasn’t been good enough to force a 3 and out and give Manning the ball back with a chance to tie or win the game these 2 games.  Really though the team seems to go as Manning goes.  Manning’s arm strength seems to grow as the game wears on as he struggles at the outset each week.  The team should build its game plan around this fact by starting the game with short throws and runs until Peyton’s arm gets stronger.

                Before I get back to recapping the games I think I should comment on the officiating problems with the NFL.  Obviously the two games that had the biggest problems were the primetime games where the focus of the game changed from the game itself to the incompetence of the referees.  Really nothing sums up everything that has happened like the “Bull-Shit” chant by the Ravens’ fan during Sunday Night’s game.  This has become a disgrace that is fundamentally changing how football is being looked at and dissected.  Gamblers lost between $150-$250 Million dollars on the Monday Night game alone because of the call.  The league is becoming a joke.  The NFL is the most popular league in all of sports because of the quality of play and how much it cares about it, while this replacement ref debacle spits in the face of that.  The refs make horrible calls all game that hurt both teams, and just can’t control the game, it’s honestly a detriment to the safety of the players.  Really College Football is a better product right now because while the quality of play on the field might be lower, the quality of officiating is much higher and the game is easier to watch.  If the NFL doesn’t correct this problem right now then this is very quickly going to hurt the league substantially as it will be hard to think of it as anything but the BSL, or the “Bull-Shit” League.  Now onto the final two games:

Baltimore Ravens over New England Patriots

The Ravens did the seemingly impossible; they came back on the New England Patriots.  Joe Flacco was great as he led the Ravens up and down the field all game, throwing strike after strike to a multitude of receivers, most notably Torrey Smith.  Really enough cannot be said about Torrey Smith’s performance, he played an amazing game under the worst of circumstances and that’s why the replacement refs are an issue, people should be talking about him and not the refs.  The Ravens look like a real contender as the team’s offense has improved substantially as Joe Flacco really seems to be coming into his own.  For the Patriots it seems like while the team is different than last year’s unit it still has the same fundamental flaw.  Its defensive backfield is terrible and is hopeless against even the worst offense.  Tom Brady is still a great player, but the league doesn’t seem to be as much of a passing league this season and having a decent defense will be a necessity for success.  The team is still a great team though and I have every expectation of them being there towards the end of the playoffs.

*Seattle Seahawks over Green Bay Packers

Well the Seahawks won on the strength of the replacement refs, which I won’t be talking about anymore, and an awesome defensive performance.  Their defense was able to sack Rodgers 8 times in the first half and just punched Green Bay in the mouth, because even if Seattle lost that game one thing was obvious, Seattle’s defense is really good.  Russell Wilson had his moments Monday, but at least for this season looks like he is going to be a quarterback managing games, playing a similar role to Alex Smith.  The running game is good, and in a big victory for Seattle this team is going to be gunning for a playoff spot as they compete in what might be the hardest division in all of football shockingly.  The Packers on the other hand if the past two weeks didn’t show it enough just aren’t the same football team they were last year.  This loss sadly could end up being pretty costly for them as they compete for a playoff spot in an increasingly difficult NFC.  The Packers don’t have a running game at all this season, and while the defense might have slightly improved, the passing game definitely declined.  Rodgers is having increasing difficulty carving up defenses this season, and while still a top quarterback in this league just isn’t the player he was last season, I would assume a lot of that would be a result of the putrid play of the offensive line through 3 games.  To be fair the Packers have played 3 of the best defenses in football through 3 weeks so their offense wouldn’t look as good.  The Packers are going to be in a tough road to get a playoff spot kind of shocking considering they won 15 games last season.  

NFL Week 3 Picks

 New York Giants (+2.5) over Carolina Panthers

Yes the game already took place, but I actually did pick the Giants to win.  The Giants were on the road, had a ton of injuries, on a short week facing a team they didn’t matchup with well.  This is exactly the type of game that the Giants come to play and did so with a dominating effort over the Panthers.

Chicago Bears (-7.5) over St. Louis Rams

I know the Bears and Jay Cutler looked especially bad last week and the Rams were impressive in their win over the Redskins, but I still like the Bears this week.  The Bears’ defense is still really good and I have serious difficulty believing that the Rams will be able to score on them.  The Rams on the other hand I’m still not totally sold on yet.  This team was horrible last year and that defense still has serious issues when it comes to stopping teams.  I see the Bears winning this week probably easier than they should as Cutler has a big day while Sam Bradford struggles.

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Cleveland Browns

I am not very confident about the Bills this week as they have a must win game against the Cleveland Browns.  Despite looking pretty good in their 2^nd game I am still not totally sold on the team and its quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.  However they are playing the Cleveland Browns with their 28 year old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden.  So in my mind I cannot justify picking against my favorite team in a must win game where they are playing Brandon Weeden.

Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is one of the hardest games of the week to pick for me because I really could see this game going in many directions.  Tony Romo might just be on fire and come up and throw some bombs to Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and company as they light up the scoreboard and dominate the game.  I could see a solid back and forth game that comes down to whatever quarterback makes a play at the end.  Really this game could go in many directions, but I see a rebound week for Romo and the Cowboys.  I think the homefield advantage, definitely aided by the replacement refs comes into play as well.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) over Tennessee Titans

I think 2 weeks into the NFL season it has become quite clear that the Titans just aren’t that good.  They have been dominated by the Patriots and Chargers and I don’t see week 3 going any better for them.  While the Lions are a flawed team they still have Calvin Johnson and enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to make this game a rout early.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Ok the point spread is 3 points which means that the Colts and Jaguars are about equal in quality(for those who don’t know it’s a general rule of thumb that Vegas gives the home team 3 points).  I strongly disagree if only based on the assertion that the Colts have Andrew Luck while the Jaguars have Blaine Gabbert.  I think the Colts proved last week that they can be competent enough outside of Luck while Blaine Gabbert proved last week that he is in fact still Blaine Gabbert.

New York Jets (-2.5) over Miami Dolphins

Through two games this season I have absolutely no idea how good the Jets are.  Really it comes down to Mark Sanchez and is he closer to the quarterback that picked apart the Bills defense or the quarterback who could barely complete a pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Personally I don’t think it will matter this week playing the Jets because they have Darrelle Revis coming back whose presence alone should give Ryan Tannehill fits. 

San Francisco 49ers (-7) over Minnesota Vikings

I’m instituting a new rule this week.  Don’t pick against the 49ers for any point spread within a reasonable margin until further notice.  Right now this team looks like the best team in all of football and I don’t see them playing a close game against anyone right now.  I actually like some of the things that the Vikings have going for them right now and they are headed in a good direction, but no picking against Jim Harbough.

New Orleans Saints (-9) over Kansas City Chiefs

I am not comfortable at all with this pick.  Through two weeks the Saints haven’t been impressive at all and seem to really be missing the presence of Sean Payton.  However the Chiefs have looked like they might be the worst team in all of football.  The offense and defense both look pathetic and I don’t see them getting better any time soon.  So I will uncomfortably predict the Saints to blow this game out by I don’t feel good about it.

Washington Redskins (-3) over Cincinnati Bengals

This pick has more to do with my not being sold on the Bengals to me being sold on the Redskins.  For one though with this game I think playing at home should save RGIII from some of the cheap shots he was subject to in last week’s game.  I see RGIII having a big game this week as I still think it will take some time for teams to figure out how to defend against him.  The Bengals aren’t that good and I don’t see them pulling out a tough game against a talented opponent on the road.

Arizona Cardinals (+4) over Philadelphia Eagles

Last week proved that the Cardinals defense is really good, and I think two weeks into the season proved that Michael Vick is going to turn the ball over a lot this year.  I see this as a disastrous combination for the Eagles this week as Kevin Kolb manages the game and the Cardinals come home victorious.  Really right now after the performance they put forth against the Patriots, they have to be treated with respect.  I have a hard time going through the thought process of picking against them when they are home.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) over San Diego Chargers

While I am in no way sold that the Falcons are a Super Bowl contender this year I am much less sold on the Chargers starting 3-0.  Norv Turner football teams don’t start 3-0, that is one thing that I have definitely learned from watching football during the Norv Turner era.  The Falcons are a talented and consistent enough team where I see them winning against the Chargers and getting their record to a solid 3-0.

Denver Broncos (+2) over Houston Texans

This week’s game is a pick on Peyton Manning over anything else.  While the results were mixed last week I still see the Broncos coming through for a big victory this week on the arm of Peyton.  This game is much more important for the Broncos than it is for the Texans anyway, as the Broncos play a hard schedule in a competitive division while the Texans are in the AFC South, possibly the worst division in football.  I think Peyton comes to play this week and delivers a big victory for the Broncos.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over Oakland Raiders

I am totally sold on the Steelers this season and still think the team will be fighting right to the end to get to the Super Bowl.  The team is tough hardnosed and physically demanding to play against both offensively and defensively.  Also I don’t think that Carson Palmer will be able to have continued success against the Steelers great defense.  Big Ben comes through for a few big plays as the Steelers win a game on the road.

New England Patriots (+3) over Baltimore Ravens

There has been a lot of fawning this year about how good the Ravens are, and how them and Joe Flacco are ready to make the next step, personally I don’t buy it.  I’m not sold on Flacco or that offense in general and I think the defense is worse than it appears.  I’m predicting Brady and that Patriots come prepared and have a big week with Gronkowski making big plays all over the field.  People are underestimating the sleeping giant that is the New England Patriots as they make their way to a big victory this week.

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) over Green Bay Packers

I see the Packers moving to under .500 as they eclipse their loss total from last year’s regular season in week 3 of this year.  While the Packers are very good and will still be a Super Bowl contender this year I like the Seahawks at home on Monday Night Football.  The crowd will be crazy and I think that combining that with the replacement refs I think that some calls will be going Seattle’s way.  I think Russell Wilson manages the game and lets his defense and running game make the plays necessary to win the game. 

Me:

Last Week: 8-6-2

Overall: 15-16-2

Taylor:

Last Week: 7-7-2

Overall: 15-16-2

Stay Hungry My Friends

MVP Debate: There is none

In the AL this season, there is a baseball player having a historic season, a season that compares to very few in the history of baseball and this player deserves to win the MVP in a landslide, also Miguel Cabrera might win the Triple Crown.  Mike Trout this season is putting together the best baseball season since Barry Bonds’ prime and if he doesn’t win the MVP this year then that is a disgrace.  Let’s begin this discussion by comparing some stats between the two players (all stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference if you have any questions about what the stats mean please click on the hyperlink explaining it):

Miggy: .333/.398/.616 BA/OBP/SLG, 41 HR, 130 RBIs, 101 Runs Scored in 147 games played

Trout: .327/.396/.556 BA/OBP/SLG, 27 HR, 77 RBIs, 118 Runs Scored in 126 games

If you are just looking at these statistics then yes even I would agree that Cabrera has a slight edge and should be the favorite for MVP.  The problem is that much more goes into baseball then these statistics and by their very nature some of these stats have inherent flaws in them.  RBI’s for example are a stat that really has no basis in determining how good a hitter is.  All that it has to do with is context of whether or not you are going to be up when hitters are on base or not.  Mike Trout as a leadoff hitter will be up much less frequently with men on base then Cabrera who bats 3^rd in the lineup.  BA another Triple Crown stat is not even the best stat to determine how men get on base, that would be OBP which Cabrera and Trout are almost tied in.  So really the only are where Cabrera has an edge is as a power hitter who impressively has slugged 41 Homeruns this season in comparison to Trout’s 27.  Now let’s look at some other stats that might seem to strengthen Trout’s case:

Miggy: 4 Steals, 1 Caught Stealing, wOBA .422, 170 wRC+

Trout: 46 Steals, 4 Caught Stealing, wOBA .419, 173 wRC+

Ok now looking at these statistics it begins to give Trout a little advantage over Cabrera.  Trout obviously has a significant advantage in the speed department, leading the league in steals while also stealing bases at an extremely high percentage.  If you look at wOBA and wRC+, two statistics that look at overall hitting contributions that hitters provide than Trout and Cabrera are actually almost exactly equal.  There are two other major factors that contribute to Trout’s superiority, the position they play and their defensive contributions.  Let’s look at some defensive stats:

Miggy: -9.4 UZR, Defensive WAR -0.4

Trout: 13 UZR, Defensive WAR 2.5

Ok to be fair defensive contributions are quite hard to track over 1 season and it usually takes a good 3 year sample to really determine a player’s ability.  Considering Trout is a rookie and Cabrera and just changed position that is clearly impossible to do.  However these numbers seem to matchup with the eye test and how people think of each player’s defensive abilities.  Trout has looked like the best defensive center fielder in baseball all season mainly because of plays like this regularly.  Cabrera has looked like a below average to average 3^rd baseman defensively at best all season so those numbers seem about right.  Now let’s look at each player’s WAR:

Miggy: Baseball Reference 6.5, Fangraphs 6.8

Trout: Baseball Reference 10.2, Fangraphs 9.4

Now we have determined that Miggy is a slightly better at best hitter while Trout is a significantly better on the basepaths and defensively but does that match up with the difference in value.  There is one other factor, the position they play.  What Trout is able to do as a centerfielder hitting, defensively, and on the basepaths is more valuable than Cabrera’s value as a 3^rd baseman.  Trout plays a position where great offensive play isn’t expected and Cabrera plays one where it is.  Thus Trout’s value as a player is significantly more than Cabrera’s value considering all the factors.  So in any way if Cabrera is able to win the MVP award because he is able to win a meaningless title like the Triple Crown then it is a sad state of affairs in the world of baseball writers.

                Since Trout is MVP this season case closed I think we all need to take the time to appreciate that we are witnessing the birth of a legend.  I know I know he is only a rookie and that I am prematurely crowning him, but to me that no matter what happens for the rest of his career he will remain a legend.  If he plays at this level or improves in his career than there is a chance we will be watching one of the greatest players of all time along the lines of Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr.  If he flames out then we are watching a Doc Gooden like player, someone who exploded onto the season with an unbelievable 2^nd season then never lived up to his potential.  This is a historic rookie season that we should all appreciate, Trout is a once in a generation talent that is the best player in baseball at the age of 21.  So sit back and just enjoy watching history happen.  

NFL Weekly Recap: Week 2

Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

The Green Bay Packers got a big win over a division rival in a game that was quite necessary for them to win.  The Packers though still didn’t look like the team they were last year, and the offense looks entirely stoppable.  It was an important win though for the team, it showed that they are still a team to be contended with and will be a legitimate threat this season.  For the Bears it was a tough loss in a game that was supposed to be a statement game about where the new offense is.  Cutler and the offense were atrocious with 7 sacks, 4 interceptions, and a huge dropped touchdown by Brandon Marshall.  This might be a sign of things to come, or as I suspect it’s a team on with a short week to prepare for the Packers that wasn’t able to get up for the game.

Miami Dolphins over Oakland Raiders

This game was a case of one of two things, either the Dolphins are much better than everyone thought or the Raiders are much worse.  Personally I’m leaning toward the latter.  The Dolphins had a lot to build on with that win combining a solid and steady performance from Ryan Tannehill with a great performance from the finally emerged Reggie Bush.  This team is probably better than we thought but I still don’t buy that Tannehill will be that successful this season.  The Raiders on the other hand look like they might be one of the worst teams in all of football.  The defense is atrocious and I’m not sure if they will be able to stop anybody all year.  The offense is completely reliant on an over the hill Carson Palmer and scares absolutely nobody.

Houston Texans over Jacksonville Jaguars

Again the Texans put forth a very similar performance to last week with a good but not great offensive performance where they completely shut down the opposing team.  The Texans again asserted their status as a premier team in the league and after some of the results from this week might be considered the favorite in the AFC.  The Jaguars struggled but against a very good Texans team but never let the game get to far away and competed the entire time.

Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns

This week the game between the NFL’s Ohio teams was a fairly close win for the Bengals.  While the Browns got a late meaningless score to make the game seem closer than it was.  The Bengals got a nice victory over a team that they were better than so as to stay in the playoff race that could be quite compelling in the AFC.  The Browns proved that their first round picks in this year’s draft weren’t totally useless as both Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson had good games.

Buffalo Bills over Kansas City Chiefs

After last week’s debacle of a performance by the Bills I was completely depressed and felt like the season was destined for failure.  This week the Bills came back as the team everyone expected them to be including huge performances from the emerging CJ Spiller and returning defensive lineman Kyle Williams.  The Bills beat what was probably a bad team but the way they did so should give the team confidence going forward.  The Chiefs on the other hand had a bad start to the season get even worse with this week.  Many thought because Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry were returning from injury that the Chiefs would be improved over last season.  It seems the team is more destined to be the team that regresses after beating their expected record by 3 games.

Philadelphia Eagles over Baltimore Ravens

The Eagles this season seem to be a team that is living on thin ice.  This team can pick up yards in bunches having ample opportunities to score week in week out.  The problem is the team turns the ball over all the time each week and seems like this isn’t a problem that won’t be going away any time soon with Michael Vick’s playing style.  I think this barely hanging on with 1 point victories is going to be ending quite soon.  The Ravens on the other hand lost a game that they probably should of won but weren’t able to hang on.  The problem it exposed is that there is a good chance Joe Flacco might not yet have reached the level of elite in the quarterback ranks.  He played a decent game, but for some reason the Ravens decided to abandon Ray Rice and the super successful running game.  Overall though the Ravens still are a team that will be right in the mix of teams in the AFC that are trying to go to the Super Bowl.

Indianapolis Colts over Minnesota Vikings

Well we got our first of what will most likely be many Andrew Luck game winning drives.  This one was capped off by the clutch kicker of the last decade, Adam Vinatieri, kicker for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.  Since Luck hopes to follow in the legacy of those two players it is quite a fitting ending.  The Colts look to have a bright future as Luck gets his first victory in a great performance by the rookie quarterback.  For the Vikings they got some good signs from Christian Ponder who led a furious comeback in this game, might be the quarterback they were hoping he was when last year they took him in the first round. 

Arizona Cardinals over New England Patriots

The Patriots were shocked by the Cardinals in a game that really came down to one thing to me, the Cardinals can really play defense.  The Patriots are the better team, but they played poorly and the Hernandez injury took them out of their game plan, as they were outplayed by the Cardinals.  The Patriots showed that their offense is not in fact infallible and has some kinks in the armor, especially with their strange use of Wes Welker.  What the Cardinals showed was a great defense and a team that can compete with any team in the league despite having Kevin Kolb playing quarterback. 

Carolina Panthers over New Orleans Saints

The Saints fall again this week as they begin to look like a team that is being severely hampered by their lack of a head coach and interim head coach.  The team has a suspect defense and an offense that isn’t as prolific as last season; much of this you would think has to do with the impact of the bounty scandal.  The other major theme from this game is that Cam Newton is really really good at football.  He had over 250 yards passing and a touchdown along with over 70 yards running and a touchdown while also running the highly successful read option offense that greatly benefits the Panthers running game. I still expect the Panthers to regress this season, and I do think that Newton at times will struggle, but the guy is already a star in this league and will soon be one of the NFL best players.

New York Giants over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants pulled off a classic New York Giants pull a game out of our ass that under no circumstances do we have any business winning.  They fell behind 27-13 and then in the last 16 minutes of the game outscored Tampa 28-7.  Eli had a classic Eli performance throwing 3 early interceptions and then coming back to throw for over 500 yards and lead the Giants to victory.  The Giants showed themselves as the exact team they were last year, a talented but inconsistent team that will probably win 9 or 10 games and if they make it into the playoffs will be extremely dangerous.  The Bucs showed themselves to be an improved unit over last year’s addition and should be a solid team this season, but they should have held on for victory with a disappointing defeat.  Now in regards to the Coughlin vs. Schiano discussion I am tempted to side with Schiano because if a game isn’t over yet then you can’t blame guys for trying to compete and win it. 

St. Louis Rams over Washington Redskins

The Rams were able to pull off the upset of the upstart Redskins because of a boneheaded play by Josh Morgan and excellent play from Sam Bradford and Danny Amendola.  The Rams looked much better than expected this week mainly because of their young quarterback.  While the Rams might not be able to compete in a stronger than expected NFC West, they might have the brightest future of any team there if Bradford is able to develop.  For the Redskins, the future will be extremely bright as they have the budding star of Robert Griffin III.  RGIII has now twice this season been extremely successful and if he is able to build off performances like that then he is going to be an MVP candidate very soon. 

Seattle Seahawks over Dallas Cowboys

The Seahawks came to play this week while the Dallas Cowboys did not; it’s just as simple as that.  Russell Wilson managed the game, Marshawn Lynch had a big week and the defensive and special teams played great and completely contained the Cowboys.  This team has the talent to compete in the NFC West and it showed in this week’s games.  They utilized the game plan that for them to be successful they will have to use week in week out.  The Cowboys on the other hand completely contradicted their performance against the Giants.  They like the Giants and Eagles are a talented but erratic team that each week a completely different result can be expected.

San Diego Chargers over Tennessee Titans

The Chargers do it again!  They didn’t blow an early season game in the first two weeks that they definitely should have won, upset of the season.  Rivers looks as good as ever and the Chargers look poised to contend for the division title in the AFC West.  The only other thing I would say is that while the Chargers are still fairly talented, their coach is Norv Turner so expect at some point the team to start blowing some games.  The Titans on the other hand seem to be moving in a downward trend as a franchise.  Chris “2,000 yard rusher” Johnson through 2 games this season has 19 carries for 21 yards.  The guy is a shell of his former self and with a quarterback that needs some time to develop and a bad defense, this looks like it will be a rough season for the Titans.

Pittsburgh Steelers over New York Jets

Well everything is back to normal.  The Steelers still have a great defense, and a one of a kind quarterback who makes big time plays.  The Steelers might have been the most impressive team from week 2 with their dominant efforts on the offensive and defensive ends as they destroyed the Jets.  They aren’t going away any time soon and will surely be a force in the AFC.  The Jets on the other hand played about as poorly this week as they played well the week before.  Sanchez was awful going 10-27 for 138 yards and played like the much maligned quarterback we all have come to expect.  The defense showed that without Darrell Revis that the team is just completely transformed and cannot play the style they need to in order to be successful. 

San Francisco 49ers over Detroit Lions

The 49ers again asserted their dominance with a 27-19 win over the high powered Lions, closer than it seemed because of a late touchdown from Detroit.  Two weeks into the season the 49ers look like the best team in football that combines what probably is the best defense in all of football with an improved offensive attack.  Alex Smith seems to have improved over his improvements from last season and with the coaching of Jim Harbough the 49ers will probably be considered the team to beat all year.  The Lions while not playing terrible this week, the team is still too overly dependent on Calvin Johnson and if you can limit his contributions then the Lions become a much more limited team. 

Atlanta Falcons over Denver Broncos

To me this game represented a mixed bag for both teams.  For the Falcons, the positives are that Matt Ryan and the passing game look very good this season and it is going to be extremely difficult to stop Atlanta when throwing the football.  Negatively the Falcons don’t look like they will be great running the football this season as Michael Turner struggled all game and the defense while forcing some turnovers early let Peyton Manning drive up and down all game late, as they almost gave up a 20 point lead.  For the Broncos, a team that all season will likely have to depend on Peyton Manning, Manning’s performance was a mixed bag.  The 3 first quarter interceptions by him were quite bad as Manning didn’t seem to have that much velocity behind his throws, the main worry about him this season.  The rest of the game I thought his velocity came and went but he realized how to manage it better as the game progressed.  He looked impressive on the comeback as almost led the Broncos to victory against a solid Falcons team.  If the Broncos want to fight for the playoffs though Manning’s arm strength will be a key figure because if he can’t throw the ball like he wants to or thinks he can, then expect a few more starts like this, this season. 

Stay Hungry My Friends

Week 2 Picks!

It's that time of year again. The time of year where many fans find out that, yes, last week was an abberation or that their team will in fact, not go undefeated. Week 2 is usually just as good for over-reacting as week one. Remember, these are picking against the spread, not the outright winner. So without further ado, here are my picks for this week.

Green Bay over Chicago(+5)-I knowI'm not breaking any ground here; obviously this game ended a couple days ago. I just thought it would be fun to over-react to one game and seriously question Chicago's chances going forward. So does Chicago have a chance to make the playoffs with such a shaky o-line, below average receiving corps and an erratic QB?! By the way, congrats on your eventual playoff berth Chicago.

Buffalo over Kansas City (+3)- How do we evaluate two teams that were beaten so handily last week? I guess this would be the game to do it. I'll give Buffalo the slight edge because of home field advantage and non- Romeo Crennel advantage (that's a thing right?). Since I imagine both QB's will have below average days (just a hunch), each teams fate could be decided by the performance of their speedster back; either Spiller or Charles. So tune in to CBS at one everybody to find out which "bubble playoff team" is actually terrible!

Cincinnati over Cleveland (+7)-Yes it's a seven point line and yes Cincinnati is overrated. But did you see Weeden play last week? It was borderline torture. Plus, in true Cleveland fashion, there's really no silver lining. Weeden won't have as much time to develop as he's already older than many of the league's QB's(including reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers). Cincinnati wins this one easily as they attempt to recover from getting embarassed in a real AFC North game for the 20th time in a row. I do like the Law Firm (Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis) at running back though; he's a step up from Benson.

Minnesota over Indy (+1.5)- If the Bears game was any indication, the Colts are still in the middle of their rebuilding stage. It's tough to blame them though; cleaning up after the mess Polian left is no easy task (yes, he left a mess, a bad one). The Vikings will have Peterson and his "deal with the devil' knees plus Jared Allen rushing the young Luck all game. It's just too close of a spread, I don't see Minnesota losing this especially if we get to see glimpses of the great and mighty Joe Webb.

Oakland over Miami (+2.5)- Yeah Oakland's special teams looked rather.....special Monday night but 2 and a half freakin points?!?! Did these guys watch Miami last week? This is not a good team. They have absolutely no firepower on an offense led by a rookie who played receiver until he was a sophomore in college. This has 2-14 season written all over it. Take Oakland, their defense didn't look bad at all against San Diego and they have Darren McFadden for at least one more week.

New England over Arizona (13.5)- Normally I wouldn't expect a team to cover such a spread, no matter how much better they are than their opponent. But this is a unique case. Arizona isn't terrible as prioven in week one. But with Jon-Kevin Kolbton at quarterback, opportuinites for a back door cover are quite limited. Also, we can't forget about the Patriot's steadfast refusal to lay down, no matter how big their lead is. Do you really to have to rely on Belichick to not try to score more while New England's holding a 13 point lead with two minutes left? Didn't think so.

Tampa over New York (-7)- If the last few years have taught us anything, it's that the Giants are not to be trusted to do what's expected, especially at home. Tampa held the wild-runnin Panthers to 10 rush yards last week in a win. This team could be a sleeping giant. Much like the actual Giants whom I expect to sleep through this one. I'm not saying Tampa's going to win, but expect them to cover.

Baltimore over Philly (-2.5)- Is this real life? Did these people watch football last week? The Ravens thrashed a decent Bengals team on national tv while Joe Flacco finally shined. Meanwhile Philly played about the worst game I've ever seen a team play and win. Vick looked like a rookie version of Akili Smith while Andy Reid reminded us why he's the longest tenured coach without a Super Bowl ring. Enjoy your pick-sixes Mr. Reed.

New Orleans over Carolina (+2.5)- I don't think we'll see the Saints that we know and love for most of this season. Losing a head coach for a season and then your interim coach for six games is tougher than people realize right now. But I also have no reason to think Carolina will be anything special this year. They struggled to get anything going last week against Tampa Bay and may be headed for another 6-10 season. Take New Orleans here, Brees rarely has two bad games in a row.

Houston over Jacksonville (+7)- Well would you look at that? Blaine Gabbert played like a real quarterback last week against Minnesota! Now all he has to do is repeat that against one of the league's best defenses. Meanwhile, the fearsome rushing attack of Foster and Tate must be stopped so the rejuvinated Matt Schaub can't get comfortable and throw to one of the league's top receivers in Andre Johnson. Sounds like a tall order for Jacksonville. Houston wins this game by two touchdowns minimum.

Washington over St. Louis (+3)- A college quarterback is considered a consensus number one pick for years before he's drafted. He's got the size, speed, skill, arms, smarts, but most importatnly: the look. The second half of his final college season, another QB comes out of nowhere from a smaller school with a more exciting style. People become infatuated with him as he crawls up draft boards. Some even suggest he should go ahead of the afforementioned consensus pick. The Colts have the first pick and are in desperate need of quarterback. They take the traditional guy as the raw/exciting guy goes two. The latter has a great first couple games before.....Okay I'll shut up Washington fans, only because you asked so nicely.
In all seriousnees RG3 looked incredible in that first game, just as Newton did last year. 15 of the 32 quarterbacks that started last week are in year four or younger. The NFL is moving into a new era of quarterbacks right now. Who will be the Manning and Brady of this era? Could it be Bradford and RG3? Your guess is as good as mine right now. But for this week, I'll go with RG3 and the Skins.

Seattle over Dallas (-3)- I'll save you a Bill Simmons-esche speech about how Russell Wilson is the second coming of Larry Bird. Instead i'll remind you of a fact. Dallas blows games they shouldn't. All the time. Every season. In ways you would never expect. This will be one of those games.

New York Jets over Pittsburgh (-5.5)- The Jets are to be considered a dangerous team until they prove otherwise. I don't know what made the linesmakers so confident in Pittsburgh. Big Ben has had trouble with Rex Ryan defenses his whole career and the Steelers are 0-1 after all. It's hard to blame anyone for losing to Peyton Manning at night (or anytime in any sport for that matter), but the Jets deserve more respect than this line....for now at least.

San Diego over Tennessee (+6)- I'm not going to sit here and pretend I stayed up til 3 am to watch the Chargers take advantage of fumbled Oakland snaps. But they seem to be at least a competent team and that should be enough to beat these Titans. They have very little at receiver, nothing with Chris Johson right now and a quarterback starting his second game. Either it's an easy win for San Diego or they're not as good as I've given them credit for.

San Francisco over Detroit (+6.5)- Ah, what a rematch. Even if Jim Schwartz didn't chase Harbaugh up the sidelines with all the self-control of a twelve year therapy patient; this would still be a great match-up. The two teams played a great game last year and both are hungry to advance further into the playoffs this year. However, San Francisco looked much more impressive week one leading me to believe that they're to be considered Super Bowl favorites. Damn Right I said it. Alex Smith and the boys should take care of business in Detroit or i'll look like I usually do after making a prediction.

Denver over Atlanta (-3)- There are two big factors people are forgetting in picking Atlanta for this game. 1. The Falcons haven't proven to great yet. As far as we know they're still that above average team that beats up on bad teams and folds whenever they have a real opponent. 2. Peyton Manning doesn't lose at night......EVER. You do not, under any circumstances, bet against Peyton Manning. It will come back to haunt you. Peyton and his boys will take care of things for the second straight week in prime time.

Enjoy all the week 2 action, Stay Hungry My Friends.

NFL Weekly Recap: Week 1

I have decided to take Taylor’s idea of doing an MLB Weekly Recap and take it to the NFL.  I’ll be writing my thoughts on every game and what the game means and what it means for each team going forward.  For obvious reasons I won’t be able to watch every game, but I’ll be trying to watch as much as I can and use the box score, highlights, among other things to figure out the rest.  So without further ado my first weekly recap:

Dallas Cowboys over New York Giants

This week the Cowboys elevated themselves and made themselves the favorites in the NFC East early this season.  They had an impressive win in New York over the defending Super Bowl Champions where Tony Romo continued his quest to lose his reputation as being unclutch.  The game is a good sign for the Cowboys but I wouldn’t say that this division is an open and shut case.  The Giants, Cowboys, Eagles and even Redskins have a chance in this division. 

Atlanta Falcons over Kansas City Chiefs

The Falcons dominated what I think is a really bad football team in the Chiefs and did so in a way many thought they would.  The Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection looks spectacular as the Falcons look poised to air it out this season and should be the favorites in the NFC South.  The only thing is that I think that before they can be considered Super Bowl Contenders they have to show that level of play against a good team.

Philadelphia Eagles over Cleveland Browns

This was a case of both teams feeling really bad about themselves and their future as a team.  The Eagles just escaped with a 1 point victory over a clearly bad Browns team.  Michael Vick had a very bad day, throwing 4 interceptions, while Andy Reid decided that having him continue to throw was smarter than giving it to the extremely efficient LeSean McCoy.  On the other hand the Browns probably are feeling worse than the Eagles are right now as their franchise doesn’t look strong in the present or future.  Their coach for some reason didn’t go for 2 after the Browns got a TD to go ahead 5 in the 4^th quarter and preceded to lose the game by 1 point, the 3^rd overall pick in the draft Trent Richardson got 39 yards on 19 carries, their 28 year old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden looked like the worst starting quarterback in football completing 12-35 passes for 118 yards with 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and their star cornerback Joe Haden lost his appeal and will be suspended 4 games for PED use.  Not a good day to be a Browns fan.

Washington Redskins over New Orleans Saints

After having a pretty horrible week of picking games, I would like to gloat about one of the games that I did first guess, the Washington Redskins giving the Saints a tough game and actually beating them, even if I incorrectly marked the game as home for the Redskins.  RGIII looked as good as a rookie quarterback could possibly look in his debut and outplayed Drew Brees.  The Saints were unable to handle the unique playing style of Griffin and he led them to a defeat.  What the game does though is catapults the Redskins into the discussion as a possible team that could sneak into the playoffs and the Saints as a team that could fall this season.  I think the value of not having your head coach or even the interim head coach showed for the Saints as they were beaten by the Redskins.

Detroit Lions over St. Louis Rams

The Lions might have been able to beat the Rams on Sunday but they didn’t make it easy on themselves and weren’t that impressive in the process.  They won by 4 points against a team that last year was awful and I’m not sure if this year that the Rams will be as bad as they were last season but they very well could be.  Matthew Stafford threw 3 interceptions as the team attempts to figure out what its identity is going to be except throw it up to Calvin Johnson and hope he catches it.  Usually an effective strategy but against good teams the Lions will have to diversify its playbook.

New England Patriots over Tennessee Titans

In what was an easy to see coming blowout victory the Patriots destroyed the Titans and looked like the Super Bowl contender everybody thought they were and possibly are better than last year.  This defense looks better with the additions of rookies Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower along with the running game with the emergence of 2^nd year back Stevan Ridley.  With an improved defense and a strong running game it’s hard to picture the Pats not being Super Bowl favorites considering they basically only made it last year passing the football.  The Titans though looked like a team that was overmatched and Jake Locker while showing some talent will take some time to develop. 

Houston Texans over Miami Dolphins

This game basically reinforced the common perceptions that everyone had going into this game.  The Texans are going to be a force in the AFC with a solid offense and defense that is going to give difficulties for any team.  The Dolphins played like a team that has the 2^nd worst starting quarterback and football and irrationally traded its best receiver, Brandon Marshall, and its best corner Vontae Davis for a 2^nd, 2 3^rds and a conditional late round draft pick.  The Dolphins had a tough offseason and it showed this game in what should be a long season for the team.

New York Jets over Buffalo Bills

As a Buffalo Bills fan there is only one word I can use to describe the game, depressing.  The Buffalo Bills got thoroughly outplayed in all aspects of the game, and really the only positive was the performance of CJ Spiller.  Outside of that Ryan Fitzpatrick was abysmal while the game still counted and the “vaunted” defensive line couldn’t put any pressure on Sanchez while the corners couldn’t cover the Jets receivers. This was an extremely discouraging performance for the Bills with really the only positives going forward are that it was just week 1 and the season is still young, and that they might be able to build some positive momentum with the next 2 must win games against Cleveland and Kansas City.  On the Jets side this game was extremely well played, Sanchez played great and the Defense looked like the classic Jets defense.  Really the only thing that wasn’t great was that Tebow wasn’t effective to everyone at ESPN’s or NFL Network’s dismay. 

Minnesota Vikings over Jacksonville Jaguars

In a game between 2 teams that probably aren’t going very far this season they both got some promising signs from this week’s games.  For the Vikings, Adrian Peterson looked good in his debut coming back from a torn ACL and Christian Ponder put forth a solid performance.  On the Jaguars side, Blaine Gabbert didn’t play totally incompetent but actually quite well, a promising sign for a team with a seemingly bleak future.

Chicago Bears over Indianapolis Colts

This game again was a game that probably reinforced a lot of common thoughts about both teams going in.  The Bears proved they had an always solid defense with an improved offense and will be a tough team to play throughout the year.  The Marshall trade and drafting Alshon Jeffrey paid immediate dividends for the Bears as both had big performances in their first games on the team.  The Colts played like a team with a bright future that won’t be great in the present.  Luck was successful to a certain level against a pretty good Bears defense put turned the ball over too frequently. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Carolina Panthers

This game seemed to come down to one major factor, Carolina turned the ball over twice and Tampa didn’t turn it over at all.  In their 16-10 win over the Panthers, the Bucs showed off their new and improved team that should have a substantially better defense and running game.  If Josh Freeman can play like he did Sunday and not turn the football over then the Bucs could find themselves in contention for a playoff spot.  Carolina seemed to show some serious flaws in their team if what happened Sunday continues going forward.   The vaunted Panthers running attack ran the ball 13 times and got only 10 yards out of it.  If the Panthers aren’t going to be able to run the ball this season then they will be putting Cam Newton in the tough position of having to throw all the time which could lead to many turnovers like it did on Sunday.  On a positive note, while Tampa’s offense might not be that good the Panthers’ defense looks like an improvement over last year’s unit.

Arizona Cardinals over Seattle Seahawks

Well my pick for the worst team in football got off to a resounding start while winning their first game on Sunday against a good Seahawks team.  While I still don’t think the Cardinals will be a good team this season, they might not actually be the worst team in football, especially if they continue winning every close game they are in.  I still don’t see a team who is rotating between Kevin Kolb and John Skelton at quarterback being that successful.  On the other hand the Seahawks lost the game because they got below average play from their rookie quarterback, Russell Wilson.  While Wilson wasn’t awful this week, he was slightly below average in a week where Seattle needed him to perform a little better. 

San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers

The most impressive performance this weekend was the beatdown that the 49ers put down on the Packers.  They went into that game and completely took the Packers out of their rhythm with their defense, and offensively the team looks like an improved unit off of last year.  They played a classic 49ers game, completely shut down the run, win the turnover battle, take the opponent’s passing game out of rhythm and dominate running the football.  If the 49ers are able to do that on a week to week basis then I will be dead wrong not putting them into the Super Bowl contenders.  While I still believe that some of the turnover differential and injuries might regress this season, other improvements within the team might be able to offset that.  For the Packers the team seems like they are going to play exactly like last year’s unit.  This Packers team seems to have the same weakness as last year’s team.  If you can get physical with them and take them out of rhythm then they are entirely beatable.  The team is dependent entirely on Aaron Rodgers and in less he is playing outstanding, which he does a very large percent of the time, then the team is not that great.

 Denver Broncos over Pittsburgh Steelers

Something happened on Sunday Night Football that I wasn’t expecting, Peyton Manning looked like the MVP Peyton Manning who makes average teams Super Bowl contenders.  While my colleague Taylor probably has the biggest man crush on Peyton Manning of any person in the world, I myself agree that he is very good.  If Manning is able to keep up this level of play for the rest of the season, then the Broncos move themselves into the upper echelon of playoff contenders and possibly even Super Bowl contenders.  The Steelers on the other hand I just thought got outplayed by Peyton Manning on Sunday Night Football, Peyton’s practical home.  I see the Steelers being fine for the rest of the season even if the offensive line hasn’t improved from last season.

Baltimore Ravens over Cincinnati Bengals

The first Monday night game of the season to me was just a case of one team being far superior to the other.  To me the game says more about where the Bengals are as a team than where the Ravens are.  The Bengals were an average football team last year that played an easy schedule, this year they look like practically the same team and I think its record will show that this season.  The Ravens on the other hand looked like Super Bowl Contenders and that Joe Flacco has emerged and is ready to be an elite quarterback in this league.  Remember last season Joe Flacco had a very similar performance week 1 against the Steelers and ended up being the regular “Joe” he usually is.  All this game showed that if Flacco is an elite quarterback than the Ravens are an elite team, and I think it will take the season for us to determine those questions.

San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders

This season didn’t start out as an absolute train wreck for the San Diego Chargers!  Their yearly horrible start to the season is at least going to be delayed one week as the Chargers were able to defeat the Raiders.  To me this game doesn’t say all that much about either team that we didn’t already know.  The Chargers should be in a fight for a playoff spot as long as Rivers plays well and the team doesn’t quite on Norv Turner.  The Raiders while not off to a great start to the season, still will have a chance at making the playoffs if they can get their offense together.

Stay Hungry My Friends