NFL Week 1 Picks

So this football season with the blog Taylor and I will be doing a rotating picks column where each week we pick NFL games against the spread.  We will be keeping tally against one another and see which one of us does better and if both or either of us can pick over 50% of the games correctly, profitability zone.  Also for those uninitiated with gambling rules if a team is -6 for example and you pick them then you expect them to win by more than 6 points.  If they are +6 and you pick them then you expect them to be within 6 points of the other team or win the game outright.  If the games land exactly on the spread then you tie the pick and if you were gambling on it then you would get your money back.  So without further ado here is my first picks column for the Hungry Dog Blog:

(Teams in Bold are the home teams)

New York Giants (-4) over Dallas

Really if you are looking for the biggest reason that the Giants will be winning this game is that I can’t see the Cowboys winning a primetime game.  Over the past 2 seasons the Cowboys have a record of 2-9 in primetime games so predicting them to win, or get within 4 points of the New York Giants seems a bit ridiculous to me.  I do think the Cowboys will probably be the best team in the NFC East, but this game in New York against the defending Super Bowl champions I see them losing. 

Indianapolis (+9.5) over Chicago

I think the Colts will be a better than expected team this year and expect them to keep it close with a very good Bears team.  The Bears don’t have a tendency to blow teams out so even if they come out and take a resounding lead I think that they leave a significant opportunity for a backdoor cover.   Also what could be a better start for the Andrew Luck era then winning a major upset victory against a great defense like the Bears? 

Philadelphia (-8) over Cleveland

I don’t see how Cleveland will figure out a way to score this season, and I don’t think they have the athletes defensively to keep up with the Eagles.  The Eagles should start out strong this week as the team right now still seems healthy so if Vick is able to stay healthy through the week, they have a significantly better team and thus should win the game. 

 Detroit (-8.5) over St. Louis

I am not totally sold on the fact that the Lions will be a great team this year, but I am definitely not sold on the Rams being any good either.  This has the makings of Calvin Johnson catching 2 or 3 touchdowns and the game turning into a rout pretty quickly.  I just don’t see the Rams having the playmakers on either side of the football to keep up with the Lions. 

New England (-6) over Tennessee

This is one of the easiest games for me to pick this week.  I do not picture a scenario where a raw quarterback like Jake Locker is going to be able to put up enough points to be within 6 of Tom Brady’s New England Patriots. 

Atlanta (-3) over Kansas City

I don’t love Atlanta this season but I do love Atlanta against a team that they are clearly better than.  Kansas City I’m not sure if people realize got extremely lucky last season, they exceeded their expected record by 3 games this season.  I just see the Falcons going in, winning pretty easily this week over a team that just isn’t that good.

Minnesota (-4) over Jacksonville

This we week have the case of 2 pretty bad teams.  I just don’t see how Jacksonville is going to score at all this week.  Blaine Gabbert is their quarterback and they have MJD just returning from his holdout so he probably isn’t in good enough shape yet.  I know Minnesota is in a similar situation, but I think Christian Ponder is a better quarterback than Gabbert, I think Minnesota’s running game will be slightly better, and Minnesota is at home so I have to go Vikings.

Washington (+9) over New Orleans

This has all the makings of a classic week 1 upset special.  You have a team in turmoil, the Saints, against a hot young quarterback, Griffin, playing in front of his home crowd in a playing style that teams aren’t used to.  I don’t think having an interim interim head coach is the ideal way to start a season for a team so I think that Washington has a good chance of winning this game and if not winning getting pretty close.

Buffalo (+3) over New York Jets

This might be some blatant homerism at work but I do love the Bills to win this week.  I just don’t see exactly how the Jets’ offense is planning on scoring this season, especially when facing a team like the Bills with a great defensive line.  Offensively I think with Fred Jackson and Spiller the Bills will be able to run the ball against the Jets defense, and Stevie Johnson has already proven that he can get open against Darrell Revis. 

Houston (-11) over Miami

Miami has Ryan Tannehill making his NFL debut on the road against one of the best defenses in the league; I don’t see this ending well for him.  I think Houston takes control of this game early and holds on for a dominating victory against this punchless Miami offense. 

Green Bay Packers (-5) over San Francisco 49ers

I think the Packers start the season off with a bang with a larger than expected victory over a very good 49ers team.  My guess is Alex Smith throws a couple of picks as the 49ers attempt to open up their offense more and while the 49ers defense is very good, the Saints proved in the playoffs last year that it can be scored on. 

Stay Hungry My Friends

Seattle (-2.5) over Arizona

Arizona might be the worst team in football this season, while I think if Seattle gets pretty good quarterback play could end up being one of the best.  I think the Russell Wilson era gets off to a resounding start with a big win over a horrible Cardinals team. 

Tampa Bay (+2.5) over Carolina

Another game that I am really confident about this weak is Tampa getting points against Carolina.  I think Tampa is the superior team of these two and being at home I see a victory coming for the Buccaneers.  With the improvements to the Bucs and I think the regression of the Panthers the Bucs could be in for a nice start to their season this week.

Pittsburgh (+1) over Denver

Again another game where I am shocked and thrilled by the spread and don’t really understand it.  The Broncos were a team that was average last season while getting really lucky.  The Steelers last season were a very good team that got unlucky and faced a ton of injuries toward the end.  I see the Steelers winning pretty easily as Manning shakes of the rust and still looks to gain back arm strength while the Steelers prove to score easily on the Broncos very overrated defense. 

Baltimore (-6) over Cincinnati

The Ravens are about to show Andy Dalton that playing above .500 football two seasons in a row isn’t easy.  I think the Ravens shut down the Bengals offense which is built around A.J. Green and Benjarvus Green-Ellis, a 2^nd year receiver and an average running back.  I think the Ravens shut the Bengals down this week and win pretty easily. 

Oakland (+1) over San Diego

My main and really only rationale for picking the Raiders this week is that no matter what season it is no matter who they play, every single season it seems like the Chargers find a way to lose their first game of the season, the 2^nd Monday Night game.  This just seems like a classic Chargers play significantly better but find a way to blow the game at the end by some mind numbing mistake.