Week 4 Picks

Hey everybody! Can you believe it's already week four of the delightfully strange 2012 NFL season? Yeah me neither. Well week three ended in quite some fashion sunday and monday night huh? Well, because of that we get our old buddy Ed Hochuli back! (Wait that guy everyone hated in 2008 until they were distracted by his toned chiselled ....)
Anyway here are my Week 4 picks against the spread.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-12)- Well we've already seen the finish to this one and (not so) suprisingly the Ravens didn't cover the spread. I know it may seem like the 0-4 Browns are by far the worst team in the NFL but interestingly enough, they've only lost those games by a combined 25 points. They've been in each game so far and have even had the ball in a position to tie/win in three of them. Of course Mr. Weeden has been unable to close in all of them. Don't read too much into the close point total; there's a reason the Browns are 0-4. Teams with quarterbacks and receiving corps this bad don't win.

Atlanta over Carolina (+7)- Is it just me or have the Falcons finally arrived? It seems as though they have a legitimate chance to be the best team in the NFC for the second time in three years. The only difference from 2010 would be that there's no one waiting to stomp on their souls in the first round of the playoffs. The Saints are bad, the Packers haven't looked the same, the 49ers can't play from behind and the NFC East isn't to be trusted. Matt Ryan's starting to look like an MVP candidate and this offense looks as good as anyone. Oh and they're only favored by 7 at home? Bet the farm on them covering against Cam "I can't win all by my damn self" Newton.

New England over Buffalo (+4) I didn't want to do this, I had to. The Patriots haven't lost three games in a row since I was in 4th grade. Something fishy is going on in New England. They've lost two in a row, they're having trouble closing games, Tom Brady looks ordinary, Rob Gronkowski isn't playing like a cross between Thor and Jerry Rice. Trust me, something's up and I don't like it. Some of you are going to say this is the end of New England's time as a powerhouse, maybe the Bills are just better. I know better than that. I'm on to you New England...you're not fooling me this time.

Minnesota over Detroit (-4.5) I know Detroit is at home and everything but I couldn't think of anything this year that made me believe Detroit was really better than Minnesota. I can't really explain it but the Vikings have been playing very well this year. They seem to have the "we now believe in quarterback" voodoo ability going on right now. Meanwhile the Lions look like a one trick pony and half of that pony may or may not have skin made of paper and bones made of glass. It's hard not to take the Vikings here especially because Peterson hasn't even fully recovered yet. Can you say sleeper? (I sure hope you can, relatively easy to pronounce)

San Diego over Kansas City (-1) Trust me I don't ever like picking AFC West teams so that makes this game really tough. I guess in the end I just have to go with the team that's not Kansas City. Yes, going with the team that didn't get embarassed by the Bills seems like the right way to go.

Seattle over St. Louis (+2.5) Although monday night was freakin awesome; I'm not sold on Seattle as a contender just yet. First of all I'd like to see them win a tough road game. But also I'd like to see Wilson not play like a steaming pile of dogshit for three quarters. Seattle has a solid run game, above average special teams and possibly a very good defense. They just need Wilson to be servicable for the first three quarters. They're not going to get 8 sacks and 45 favorable calls every game (by the way to all those Seattle fans saying that this call made up for Super Bowl 40....ummm no....that was the Super Bowl, this was week 3). On the other hand St. Louis has been downright frisky thus far. They look like a Jeff Fisher led team albeit a little short on talent. Cortland Finnegan has been doing Cortland Finnegan things and they have one the league's leading receivers in Danny Amendola. I don't feel great about this pick, watch out for those Rams.

San Francisco over New York Jets (+4) I'm totally banking on New York just being so down on Revis's injury that they can't even get up for a home game. This could be a make or break injury for Rex Ryan. If he can rite the ship and get the Jets to the playoffs without Revis, he'll look like a genius. If not, he'll likely be seeking employment elsewhere. The Niners aren't exactly the team you want to face minus your best player. They showed some vulnerability last week when falling behind early but this may not be an issue with the Jets. You see, the Jets offense doesn't score and the Niners don't really turn the ball over. This may just be too much for the Jets to overcome.

Houston over Tennessee (+12) This is the best of opportunities for Jake Locker to show that he's one of the big boys in the NFL. 380 yards and an OT win last week? Sorry, the Lions d is just a warm-up. Now he gets to go against what may be the best defensive unit in the league led by the best defensive player in the league thus far, J.J Watt. I'm going to see more from Locker and the Titans in general before I pick them to cover against the most solid team in the AFC. I'm looking for Houston to come out and take care of business like they have every week thus far. Something in the 34-14 range sounds about right.

Denver over Oakland (+6.5) Peyton Manning has had bad games before, sometimes a few in a row. But I can't see Peyton having two below average games in a row and then not destroying the Raiders, I just can't. This looks to be a vintage Peyton performance (the kind he used to put on against Denver) where he throws for 4 td's and 300 yards. Maybe not, maybe he is done. But he's done too much in his career to not earn the benefit of the doubt at this point. I don't think he'll be anything resembling an MVP this season but these Raiders might really be in trouble.

Arizona over Miami (5.5) Every year one or more team has a hot, unexpected 3-0ish start only to flame out by mid-November (I know this because it's usually the Bills) but it's difficult to tell which team that will be. Is Arizona the unexpected contender or are they destined to flame out? They couldn't possibly be a fluke after beating the Pats and Eagles right? After all, who beats such good teams early and misses the playoffs....(fuckin Bills). The defense seems to be the catalyst right now as they've dominated everyone they've played thus far. But, at the end of they day this is still a quarterback driven league. Kolb (or Skelton) is going to have to prove that he's a capable starter at this level. Teams don't win by getting pick sixes and return touchdowns every game no matter how good Patrick Peterson is. Additionally Ryan (battering ram) Williams hasn't proven to be any type of force to be reckoned with running the ball yet. Eventually Kolb is going to have to make difficult high pressure throws or the Cardinals will cease to amamze. But with the defense looking as good as it does right now that time might not come until January. Oh and for the record, they're going to give Tannehill nightmares sunday.

Cincinnati over Jacksonville (+2.5) I'm no longer sure about this whole sophomore slump things for Cincinnati. They look like an improved team so far, a team on it's way up. They may again be a playoff team. Meanwhile Blaine Gabbert has looked halfway decent in two of the three games thus far (and beyond putrid in the other so don't get too excited). This game's going to come down to whether or not Cincinnati can contain the incredibly dangerous Maurice Jones-Drew. If so this game could turn into every Jaguars fan (all 40 of them) lamenting the team's decision to take Lil Mr. Pisspants over the Red Rifle in last year's draft.

Green Bay over New Orleans (+7.5) I'm guessing the schedule makers didn't expect these teams to be a combined 1-5 when they planned this game huh?Don't look now but the Packers have had three bad offensive games in a row. Yes they may have played three of the league's best defenses already but should that matter to a juggernaut like Green Bay? Meanwhile the Saints look horrible, especially on defense. I just don't see the Packers playing another poor offensive game. Look for Aaron Rodgers to break the slump against a historically bad Saints defense.

Washington over Tampa Bay (-2.5) While RG3 looks as good as advertised thus far, I'm not totally sold on this Redskins team yet. In fact I don't think firing Mike Shanahan is such a bad idea. But I am expecting them to win this week by quite a margin. I think we're only one or two weeks away from realizing that Tampa is really, gruesomely bad. Like, 2011 Tampa bay bad. For some reason people thought the Bucs would majorly turn things around once Raheem Morris was gone. But his firing didn't fix Josh Freeman who is more than obviously broken. The jury is still out on their defense but the way Mr. Freeman has looked so far, it won't matter. The only thing is, the NFC South is so bad the Bucs may end up in second (a la the 2007 Bills).

New York over Philly (-2.5) Anyone want to explain to me why this Eagles team is favored to beat the Giants? Anyone? I got time.....This line is a joke. Through three weeks this looks like a 7 win team if they're lucky, which they totally have been so far. The Giants looked the part of Super Bowl champion last thursday in demolishing the Panthers. The Eagles had a win handed to them by the oh so genorous Mr. Weeden (Weeden Claus! Free wins for everyone!), then beat Baltimore on some fishy calls (who were those refs anyway?) and then got handled by the Cardinals. Vick looks atrocious, the defense looks average and Andy Reid just looks like hell. My only concern with this pick is if the Giants do that things were Eli throws 3 picks and they just no-show.

Chicago over Dallas (-3.5) I'm picking the Bears to at least cover here for two big reasons.
1. Jay Cutler has had two not so pretty games in a row and has had plenty of time to pout-er I mean reflect. Plus he's do for an above average game.
2. The Cowboys won opening night....but did that cause people to forget the Cowboys don't win night games usually? These are still the same Cowboys everyone. The fun part is deciding how they're going to blow this one. My guess is penalties. We haven't that from them in a while.
This should be an exciting one though, two of the most wildly inconsistent quarterbacks in the biz facing off on monday night. I can't wait to hear what ridiculously obvious/incorrect things Jon Gruden has to say about it.
Stay Hungry My Friends