Now onto to final part of my NFL Preview, the ranking of the teams I
think have a chance at winning the Super Bowl this year:
1.
New England Patriots
I hat these guys so much but I keep thinking about it over and over
again in my head and it’s just… I don’t see any team who has a better chance of
the Super Bowl than the Patriots. Last
year they made the Super Bowl with a dominant offense and a below average
defense that was a little better than most people thought. This year I can’t think of one way in which
the Patriots are worse than last year’s team and in many ways they could be
better. They added Brando Lloyd, the
Patriots first reliable deep threat since Randy Moss, and with some potentially
impact players from the draft it’s hard not to consider the Patriots the
favorite. They are by no means a
guarantee to win it though; they have been the favorite multiple times since
2004 and have no Super Bowls to show for it.
I just can’t talk myself into Brady and Belicheck not being the favorite
when you give those to weapons like Lloyd, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez and an
improved defense.
2.
Green Bay Packers
Compare two teams
Team A: Expected Record of
12.1-3.9, Offense ranked 10th pts, 9th yards; Defense ranked
2nd points 9th yards
Team B: Expected Record of
11.9-4.1, Offense ranked 1st pts, 3rd yards; Defense
ranked 19th pts, 32 yards
Do you know who these two teams are?
Well Team A is the 10-6 2010 Green Bay Packers and Team B is the 15-1 2011
Green Bay Packers. If one thing is abundantly
clear is that the Packers have the talent of a 12 win team. Really though I think we can all agree that
in 2010 the Packers without a doubt underachieved in the regular season and in
2011 they overachieved. Next year I see
them have a record that is closer to their talent level then the two previous
seasons have indicated. The Packers didn’t
make any moves to significantly alter the structure of their team so next
season I would expect them to play at a similar level. So I would expect the offense to decline
slightly and the defense to improve slightly and the team will be right in the
hunt for Super Bowl contenders. The
reason I can’t put them ahead of the Patriots is that I think the Patriots just
have a slightly better supporting cast outside of the quarterback
position. The way the two teams are
designed though is fascinatingly similar and if those two teams met in the
Super Bowl it would be quite a game.
3.
Pittsburgh Steelers
I more than most people completely believe in the Steelers this
season. Most people look at the team as
an aging roster that let Tim Tebow throw all over them in a playoff game and
are on the decline. I see a team that
faced a ton of injuries last season and was still able to win 12 games and now
is playing in a division that is worse than it was last season. This defense, yes that defense that let Tebow
throw all over them, is still elite.
They allowed the least amount of points in football last season along
with the least amount of yards. The
offense struggled significantly at points last season but that was mainly
because of injuries to Ben Roethlisberger.
I know I know, he gets hurt every season because the team has a horrible
offensive line. The thing is this team
took two offensive linemen in the draft and if these players are able to help
keep Roethlisberger healthy the Steelers are an elite team in the AFC.
4.
Houston Texans
Last season it was my opinion that the Texans had the best team in
football and if it wasn’t for an injury to Matt Schaub then they were probably
going to be Super Bowl champions. However
I think this offseason leaves them a bit worse off than they were last
season. They lost Mario Williams, DeMeco
Ryans, and starting offensive lineman Mike Brisel and Eric Winston from what
might be the best offensive line in football.
This puts the Texans depth to task this season as they attempt to
replace a lot of talented football players.
I think that as long as Schaub stays healthy though that the Texans will
still be in the thick of the playoff race and have a good chance to win the
Super Bowl. The defense proved last
season that it has a ton of depth and the offense still has a good deal of
playmakers and the team should still be in the hunt for the Super Bowl.
5.
Chicago Bears
Da Bears. The Bears are a team
that is designed really unlike anyone else in football. They have a gun slinging quarterback who for
the first time since he got to the team has even one weapon. They have a great running back that they have
locked up long-term, Matt Forte, but a horrible offensive line to create holes
for him and to protect the controversial Jay Cutler. Their defense is the definition of a solid
unit. They aren’t a unit that prides
itself on elaborate blitz packages or exotic schemes but play solid cover 2
defense that prides itself on keeping everything in front of them and not
making mistakes. This defense is led by
emotional anchor Brian Urlacher and dominant and now I think underrated
defensive end Julius Peppers. Really
though what you think of the Bears comes down to what you think of the
embattled quarterback Jay Cutler.
Personally I think because of his hatred for the media and really just
the way he looks on the sidelines I think Jay Cutler gets a bad reputation. Let’s start with the basics Jay Cutler can
make more throws than any other quarterback in the league, as his arm is
huge. Now his two biggest criticisms are
that he isn’t tough, which I won’t dignify with a response because it’s stupid
and untrue, and that he is too much of a gunslinger. This criticism is a valid point, but you have
to wonder if his 2009 season was more or less an outlier that had more to do
with pressing too hard on a bad team then not being able to lead a team successfully. In the past 2 seasons he has went 17-8 as a
starter throwing 39 touchdowns and 23 interceptions which in today’s NFL don’t
seem like great numbers but when you take into context that his best receiver was
Devin Hester and he had a horrible offensive line they seem more
understandable. I really think this year
the Bear’s have a great chance of winning the NFC and possibly a Super Bowl as
the always solid defense combined with Cutler and Marshall being reunited makes
them an extremely dangerous team.
6.
Baltimore Ravens
Right now I think I’m giving the Ravens too much credit by putting them
6th on the list, but because of their track record, and the fact
that they were a dropped catch and a missed chip shot field goal from the Super
Bowl they do deserve some respect. If
Baltimore is going to win the Super Bowl this year it is going to because Joe
Flacco stepped up his game and the offense improved. This is because this season the Ravens
historically great defense isn’t going to be as good this season. The Ravens lost starters Jarrett Johnson and
Cory Redding to free agency while losing Terrell Suggs to injury and both Ray
Lewis and Ed Reed are still aging. The Ravens
still have a great defense, but it won’t be as elite a unit as it was last
season. The running game is still very
good led by the great Ray Rice and the receiving core is pretty good with
Anquan Boldin and the emerging Torrey Smith.
So the season comes down to the down trodden and heavily criticized Joe
Flacco. I don’t think Flacco is going to
emerge this season as something significantly better than we have seen in the
past. I think he will be a quarterback
who will be good enough to bring them into the playoffs and hope the defense
wins them a few playoff games. The thing
is Flacco looked good enough against the Patriots in the AFC Championship to
convince me theres a chance he will figure it out this season so that’s the
only reason I consider the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl contenders.
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