Sunday, September 2, 2012

NFL Preseason Power Poll Part 4


Now onto to final part of my NFL Preview, the ranking of the teams I think have a chance at winning the Super Bowl this year:
1.       New England Patriots
I hat these guys so much but I keep thinking about it over and over again in my head and it’s just… I don’t see any team who has a better chance of the Super Bowl than the Patriots.  Last year they made the Super Bowl with a dominant offense and a below average defense that was a little better than most people thought.  This year I can’t think of one way in which the Patriots are worse than last year’s team and in many ways they could be better.  They added Brando Lloyd, the Patriots first reliable deep threat since Randy Moss, and with some potentially impact players from the draft it’s hard not to consider the Patriots the favorite.  They are by no means a guarantee to win it though; they have been the favorite multiple times since 2004 and have no Super Bowls to show for it.  I just can’t talk myself into Brady and Belicheck not being the favorite when you give those to weapons like Lloyd, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez and an improved defense. 
2.       Green Bay Packers
Compare two teams
Team A:  Expected Record of 12.1-3.9, Offense ranked 10th pts, 9th yards; Defense ranked 2nd points 9th yards
Team B:  Expected Record of 11.9-4.1, Offense ranked 1st pts, 3rd yards; Defense ranked 19th pts, 32 yards
Do you know who these two teams are?  Well Team A is the 10-6 2010 Green Bay Packers and Team B is the 15-1 2011 Green Bay Packers.  If one thing is abundantly clear is that the Packers have the talent of a 12 win team.  Really though I think we can all agree that in 2010 the Packers without a doubt underachieved in the regular season and in 2011 they overachieved.  Next year I see them have a record that is closer to their talent level then the two previous seasons have indicated.  The Packers didn’t make any moves to significantly alter the structure of their team so next season I would expect them to play at a similar level.  So I would expect the offense to decline slightly and the defense to improve slightly and the team will be right in the hunt for Super Bowl contenders.  The reason I can’t put them ahead of the Patriots is that I think the Patriots just have a slightly better supporting cast outside of the quarterback position.  The way the two teams are designed though is fascinatingly similar and if those two teams met in the Super Bowl it would be quite a game. 
3.       Pittsburgh Steelers
I more than most people completely believe in the Steelers this season.  Most people look at the team as an aging roster that let Tim Tebow throw all over them in a playoff game and are on the decline.  I see a team that faced a ton of injuries last season and was still able to win 12 games and now is playing in a division that is worse than it was last season.  This defense, yes that defense that let Tebow throw all over them, is still elite.  They allowed the least amount of points in football last season along with the least amount of yards.  The offense struggled significantly at points last season but that was mainly because of injuries to Ben Roethlisberger.  I know I know, he gets hurt every season because the team has a horrible offensive line.  The thing is this team took two offensive linemen in the draft and if these players are able to help keep Roethlisberger healthy the Steelers are an elite team in the AFC. 
4.       Houston Texans
Last season it was my opinion that the Texans had the best team in football and if it wasn’t for an injury to Matt Schaub then they were probably going to be Super Bowl champions.  However I think this offseason leaves them a bit worse off than they were last season.  They lost Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and starting offensive lineman Mike Brisel and Eric Winston from what might be the best offensive line in football.  This puts the Texans depth to task this season as they attempt to replace a lot of talented football players.  I think that as long as Schaub stays healthy though that the Texans will still be in the thick of the playoff race and have a good chance to win the Super Bowl.  The defense proved last season that it has a ton of depth and the offense still has a good deal of playmakers and the team should still be in the hunt for the Super Bowl. 
5.       Chicago Bears
Da Bears.  The Bears are a team that is designed really unlike anyone else in football.  They have a gun slinging quarterback who for the first time since he got to the team has even one weapon.  They have a great running back that they have locked up long-term, Matt Forte, but a horrible offensive line to create holes for him and to protect the controversial Jay Cutler.  Their defense is the definition of a solid unit.  They aren’t a unit that prides itself on elaborate blitz packages or exotic schemes but play solid cover 2 defense that prides itself on keeping everything in front of them and not making mistakes.  This defense is led by emotional anchor Brian Urlacher and dominant and now I think underrated defensive end Julius Peppers.  Really though what you think of the Bears comes down to what you think of the embattled quarterback Jay Cutler.  Personally I think because of his hatred for the media and really just the way he looks on the sidelines I think Jay Cutler gets a bad reputation.  Let’s start with the basics Jay Cutler can make more throws than any other quarterback in the league, as his arm is huge.  Now his two biggest criticisms are that he isn’t tough, which I won’t dignify with a response because it’s stupid and untrue, and that he is too much of a gunslinger.  This criticism is a valid point, but you have to wonder if his 2009 season was more or less an outlier that had more to do with pressing too hard on a bad team then not being able to lead a team successfully.  In the past 2 seasons he has went 17-8 as a starter throwing 39 touchdowns and 23 interceptions which in today’s NFL don’t seem like great numbers but when you take into context that his best receiver was Devin Hester and he had a horrible offensive line they seem more understandable.  I really think this year the Bear’s have a great chance of winning the NFC and possibly a Super Bowl as the always solid defense combined with Cutler and Marshall being reunited makes them an extremely dangerous team. 
6.       Baltimore Ravens
Right now I think I’m giving the Ravens too much credit by putting them 6th on the list, but because of their track record, and the fact that they were a dropped catch and a missed chip shot field goal from the Super Bowl they do deserve some respect.  If Baltimore is going to win the Super Bowl this year it is going to because Joe Flacco stepped up his game and the offense improved.  This is because this season the Ravens historically great defense isn’t going to be as good this season.  The Ravens lost starters Jarrett Johnson and Cory Redding to free agency while losing Terrell Suggs to injury and both Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are still aging.  The Ravens still have a great defense, but it won’t be as elite a unit as it was last season.  The running game is still very good led by the great Ray Rice and the receiving core is pretty good with Anquan Boldin and the emerging Torrey Smith.  So the season comes down to the down trodden and heavily criticized Joe Flacco.  I don’t think Flacco is going to emerge this season as something significantly better than we have seen in the past.  I think he will be a quarterback who will be good enough to bring them into the playoffs and hope the defense wins them a few playoff games.  The thing is Flacco looked good enough against the Patriots in the AFC Championship to convince me theres a chance he will figure it out this season so that’s the only reason I consider the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl contenders.  

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