MVP Debate: There is none

In the AL this season, there is a baseball player having a historic season, a season that compares to very few in the history of baseball and this player deserves to win the MVP in a landslide, also Miguel Cabrera might win the Triple Crown.  Mike Trout this season is putting together the best baseball season since Barry Bonds’ prime and if he doesn’t win the MVP this year then that is a disgrace.  Let’s begin this discussion by comparing some stats between the two players (all stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference if you have any questions about what the stats mean please click on the hyperlink explaining it):

Miggy: .333/.398/.616 BA/OBP/SLG, 41 HR, 130 RBIs, 101 Runs Scored in 147 games played

Trout: .327/.396/.556 BA/OBP/SLG, 27 HR, 77 RBIs, 118 Runs Scored in 126 games

If you are just looking at these statistics then yes even I would agree that Cabrera has a slight edge and should be the favorite for MVP.  The problem is that much more goes into baseball then these statistics and by their very nature some of these stats have inherent flaws in them.  RBI’s for example are a stat that really has no basis in determining how good a hitter is.  All that it has to do with is context of whether or not you are going to be up when hitters are on base or not.  Mike Trout as a leadoff hitter will be up much less frequently with men on base then Cabrera who bats 3^rd in the lineup.  BA another Triple Crown stat is not even the best stat to determine how men get on base, that would be OBP which Cabrera and Trout are almost tied in.  So really the only are where Cabrera has an edge is as a power hitter who impressively has slugged 41 Homeruns this season in comparison to Trout’s 27.  Now let’s look at some other stats that might seem to strengthen Trout’s case:

Miggy: 4 Steals, 1 Caught Stealing, wOBA .422, 170 wRC+

Trout: 46 Steals, 4 Caught Stealing, wOBA .419, 173 wRC+

Ok now looking at these statistics it begins to give Trout a little advantage over Cabrera.  Trout obviously has a significant advantage in the speed department, leading the league in steals while also stealing bases at an extremely high percentage.  If you look at wOBA and wRC+, two statistics that look at overall hitting contributions that hitters provide than Trout and Cabrera are actually almost exactly equal.  There are two other major factors that contribute to Trout’s superiority, the position they play and their defensive contributions.  Let’s look at some defensive stats:

Miggy: -9.4 UZR, Defensive WAR -0.4

Trout: 13 UZR, Defensive WAR 2.5

Ok to be fair defensive contributions are quite hard to track over 1 season and it usually takes a good 3 year sample to really determine a player’s ability.  Considering Trout is a rookie and Cabrera and just changed position that is clearly impossible to do.  However these numbers seem to matchup with the eye test and how people think of each player’s defensive abilities.  Trout has looked like the best defensive center fielder in baseball all season mainly because of plays like this regularly.  Cabrera has looked like a below average to average 3^rd baseman defensively at best all season so those numbers seem about right.  Now let’s look at each player’s WAR:

Miggy: Baseball Reference 6.5, Fangraphs 6.8

Trout: Baseball Reference 10.2, Fangraphs 9.4

Now we have determined that Miggy is a slightly better at best hitter while Trout is a significantly better on the basepaths and defensively but does that match up with the difference in value.  There is one other factor, the position they play.  What Trout is able to do as a centerfielder hitting, defensively, and on the basepaths is more valuable than Cabrera’s value as a 3^rd baseman.  Trout plays a position where great offensive play isn’t expected and Cabrera plays one where it is.  Thus Trout’s value as a player is significantly more than Cabrera’s value considering all the factors.  So in any way if Cabrera is able to win the MVP award because he is able to win a meaningless title like the Triple Crown then it is a sad state of affairs in the world of baseball writers.

                Since Trout is MVP this season case closed I think we all need to take the time to appreciate that we are witnessing the birth of a legend.  I know I know he is only a rookie and that I am prematurely crowning him, but to me that no matter what happens for the rest of his career he will remain a legend.  If he plays at this level or improves in his career than there is a chance we will be watching one of the greatest players of all time along the lines of Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr.  If he flames out then we are watching a Doc Gooden like player, someone who exploded onto the season with an unbelievable 2^nd season then never lived up to his potential.  This is a historic rookie season that we should all appreciate, Trout is a once in a generation talent that is the best player in baseball at the age of 21.  So sit back and just enjoy watching history happen.