American League Preview

Image courtesy of ESPNGo.com

The American League may be inferior to the National league, but there’s plenty of enticing story lines that will make for an exciting season. It wasn't long ago that popular opinion held that there were five or so teams that could win the World Series in a given year. Now there are 20; a testament to the saber metric revolution that has overtaken the sport. In the AL alone, there are 11 teams eyeing the postseason with reasonable expectations.  

The Angels are doing their best to financially compete with the Dodgers. The Rangers are looking to overcome a rough ending to 2012 and an underwhelming off-season. The A’s appear to be contenders for the long haul. All three are vying for the AL West title.

Meanwhile, the Rays are flying under the radar once again with a chance to reclaim AL East supremacy, the Blue Jays are relevant for the first time in two decades, the Orioles are looking to build on their first playoff appearance in 14 years, the Red Sox are hoping to forget about their 93-loss squad from last year and the Yankees…well things aren't exactly looking up in the Bronx.

The AL Central is loaded with young talent (aside from Minnesota) but the Tigers are all in for winning now. Could this be the year the Royals break through and play into October? Did the Indians do enough in the offseason to become a contender? Are the White Sox above average in any way?

              
 This list starts exactly where last year ended:

1.       Detroit Tigers

The Lowdown: The Tigers suffered through a mediocre regular season last year before heating up and making a run that landed them in the World Series. After being swept by the Giants, the team made a few upgrades in the offseason. Oh and they locked up the best pitcher of this generation up for the next seven years. Good stuff.

Offense: Omar Infante, Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez are great compliments to the terrifying trio of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson. This won’t be the best lineup in baseball but significant upgrades have been made to what was the 11^th best offense in 2012.

Pitching: The Tigers may very well have the best staff in the American league. Justin Verlander is as good a bet as any to win the Cy Young but he’s no alone on this staff. Max Scherzer in strike out percentage last year while Doug Fister provides quality production as a third starter. Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello are likely both overqualified to be fourth and fifth starters.

The Outlook: The Tigers appear to be strong favorites to take the AL Central and are a good bet to make their second consecutive World Series appearance.

2.       Tampa Bay Rays

The Lowdown: The Rays suffered through a season of bad luck (Won five games less than their Pythagorean expectation according to Baseball Reference) and poor performances on offense in 2012. They had a pretty quiet offseason aside from swapping 31-year-old pitcher James Shields for super prospect, Wil Myers. They’ll look to return to the playoffs after a rare miss last season.

Offense: While the offense struggled wire to wire last season, 2013 figures to be kinder to the Rays. They’ll have Evan Longoria back from injury which means more than most understand; Longoria is one of the best hitters in baseball. In addition, they should be seeing some positive regression for Luke Scott, Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist. Myers should be sent up to the big club at some point this year but if he isn’t able to produce right away look for the Rays to deal for a bat at the deadline.

Pitching: While the Tigers may have the best staff in the AL, the Rays bullpen and defense make them the best run preventing team in the majors. David Price is the reigning Cy Young winner while Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson are two of the best young pitchers in the game. Not to mention, Fernando Rodney is coming off a career year as a closer. The Rays remarkable turnaround from perennial laughing stock to baseball’s most well-run franchise has been fueled almost entirely by pitching. That will continue this year.

The Outlook: The Rays will win the AL East on the strength of incredible pitching and improved hitting.

3.       Oakland Athletics

The Lowdown: The A’s cracked the postseason for the first time in six years last season. Billy Beane made a few more shrewd moves in the offseason and has the team in position to make a World Series run in 2013.

Offense: At first glance it may not look like much, but the Oakland offense was built in the mold of a Bill James daydream. Josh Reddick may be the most underrated player in baseball while Yoenis Cespedes provides some serious pop. Other than that, the A’s will platoon and mix and match their way to a serviceable run output.

Pitching:  Like the Rays, the A’s make their bones in the pitching business. A deep staff is headlined by the vastly underrated trio of Brett Anderson, Tommy Millone and Jarrod Parker. They once again have a loaded bullpen and, most importantly, the incomparable Bartolo Colon will return from a PED suspension in April. I wouldn’t anticipate the A’s being anything short of spectacular on the mound.

The Outlook: While the Angels and Rangers made headlines for they’ve gained and lost, the A’s made the right moves to repeat as division champs. Once they get to the playoffs, anything could happen.

4.       Los Angeles Angels

The Lowdown: The Angels disappointed last year after spending gobs of money in free agency. However, it was often overlooked that Los Angeles had the best record in baseball after calling up rookie/golden child/messiah Mike Trout last May. This year, they spent even more money in free agency by signing slugger Josh Hamilton to a five-year deal.

Offense: This lineup isn’t as top heavy as it appears at first glance. In fact, this may be one of the better offenses in the game. Albert Pujols is aging and has started poorly in each of the last two seasons but he’s still one of the better hitters in the game when he gets going. Josh Hamilton is prone to slumps (like June-September last year) but, like Pujols,  is as good as they come when he gets going. Meanwhile Eric Aybar, Howie Kendrick and Mark Trumbo are no slouches themselves. Oh and then there’s that Mike Trout fellow. As baseball’s most dangerous offensive player, Trout completes a lineup that should strike fear into the hearts of anyone the Angels may run into in the playoffs.

Pitching: The pitching staff is much less of a sure thing for L.A. CJ Wilson was a slight disappointment last year but is definitely a candidate for a bounce back season. No one’s worried about Jered Weaver but there’s legitimate concerns about the back three of the rotation. Joe Blanton, Justin Vargas and Tommy Hanson are all risks on some level.

The Outlook: The pitching staff will balance out to be average for most of the season until they pull off another deadline blockbuster to pull another ace in. The offense carries the team to a wild card spot.

5.       Texas Rangers

The Lowdown: After representing the American league in two consecutive World Series, the Rangers were dispatched after a one-game wild card in 2012. Much has been made of what they lost last year but there hasn’t been nearly as much mention of what they still have.

Offense: The loss of Hamilton will hurt in the short term but was the right long-term move. They were right to dump Michael Young and not overpay for Mike Napoli. Contrary to popular opinion, Nolan Ryan made all the right moves this offseason. This offense is still one of the better units in the league. They aren’t young by any stretch, but Lance Berkman, Adrian Beltre, A.J. Pierzynski, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus comprise as dangerous of a lineup as there is in the American league.

Pitching: There’s some uncertainty on this staff but nothing to be too worried about. Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison make up an excellent start duo and Derek Holland is solid in his own right. The trouble lies beyond the top three.

The Outlook: There’s a lot of talent here and if they’re able to get the most out of an aging lineup and can snag a pitcher at the deadline, they’ll be World Series contenders. Look for them to grab a wild card spot for the second year in a row.

6.       Toronto Blue Jays

The Lowdown: The Blue Jays went all-in this offseason in an effort to end a playoff drought that has spanned two decades. The team is totally remade and will look to compete in the suddenly wide-open AL East.

Offense:  There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Blue Jays lineup this year. Edwin Encarnacion is due for some regression, Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie are unpredictable at this point, Jose Reyes obviously has a ton of talent but was average last year and Melky Cabrera is essentially a walking question mark. The best guess is that this offense will be at least above average. Then again, that’s precisely what we thought of the Reyes-led Marlins lineup last season.

Pitching: The pitching staff may be even more of a question mark than the lineup. R.A. Dickey is coming off, by far, his best season at age 39. He’s a definite regression candidate. Josh Johnson has always been a huge injury risk and is anyone sure what Mark Buehrle has left in the tank?

The Outlook: The Blue Jays have more of a chance for variance than anyone on this list. If everything goes well, they could contend for the World Series. If everything breaks wrong, they’ll likely miss the playoffs. The most-likely scenario sees the Jays contending but falling short of the postseason.

7.       Chicago White Sox

The Lowdown: The White Sox surprised some people in 2012 by nearly grabbing the AL Central Title. They have a lot of young talent but will it be enough to push them into the playoffs?

Offense: The lineup is above average but only slightly. There’s plenty of young guys who could see plenty of improvement this year. Alejandro De Aza, Dayan Viciedo, Tyler Flowers and Gordon Beckham are all on the right side of 27 while Paul Konerko and Alexei Ramirez appear to have enough left in the tank. Flowers is a downgrade from Pierzynski but the offense should chug along just fine.

Pitching: The staff as a whole is pretty average. Chris Sale is very likely an ace and Jake Peavy had a pretty nice season himself in 2012. Gavin Floyd is back but is as average as ever. The real question on this staff is whether Jose Quintana and Dylan Axelrod can hold up on the back end of the rotation.

The Outlook: If luck is in their favor, the White Sox could make a surprise run in the Central. However, they’ll likely fall just short of the playoffs again as they’re just not as talented as some of the other American League teams. It’s only a matter of time, however, until the young talent on offense carries this team into the playoffs.

8.       Boston Red Sox

The Lowdown: The Red Sox suffered through a Murphy’s Law season last year and lost 93 games for the first time since the Lyndon Johnson administration. Overpaid veterans, a lack of prospects, a poisonous environment and terrible injury luck were the main culprits in the disaster of a season. All of those problems will be solved in some degree this season, will it be enough to push the Sox back into the playoffs for the first time this decade?

Offense: The offense wasn’t much of a problem last year and it doesn’t figure to be one in 2013 either. Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli aren’t superstars but they’re both nice additions to the lineup. While it may seem like ages ago, Dustin Pedroia was once MVP and is still in his prime. Then there’s the plethora of young talent with Will Middlebrooks, Jackie Bradley and Jose Iglesias all earning jobs. If Jacoby Ellsbury is able to stay healthy, this is a very good lineup.

Pitching:  Pitching has been a major issue for the Sox in each of the last two seasons. However, things can’t get much worse than they were last season. Jon Lester’s era was nearly a point higher than his career average; he’ll be better in 2013. The addition Ryan Dempster and John Lackey’s recovery from surgery will also be improvements from last year. The Sox also retained Felix Doubront; who was noticeably their best pitcher last season.

The Outlook: The Sox will improve and likely will surprise many in how quickly they do. However, they’re just good enough to earn a playoff spot in 2013.

9.       Cleveland Indians

The Lowdown: The Indians surprised some people early last year but totally collapsed down the stretch due to pitching issues. The team made some moves in the offseason in an attempt to compete this year, but will it be enough?

Offense: Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana? There’s some real talent on this offense. However, the team will likely be shackled by the Mark Reynolds/Drew Stubbs end of the lineup. Regardless, this offense is an improvement from 2012.

Pitching: The pitching will likely still be an issue in Cleveland. They have no ace and one has to wonder what Scott Kazmir has left in the tank after a rough couple years. The best they can hope is Ubaldo Jimenez finds some of that 2010 magic and Justin Masterson can put forth above average production. Otherwise, they could be one of the worst staffs in the league.

The Outlook: The Indians are improved, but not enough to compete in the American league this year.

10.   Kansas City Royals

The Lowdown: For the first time in decades, the Royals are a threat to play into October. However, a perplexing trade that sent their best prospect, Wil Myers, to Tampa Bay has soured many Royals fans on the future.

Offense: If the Royals do make a run this year, it will be because a few of their young guys had breakout seasons. Eric Hosmer is the best candidate for one after a pitiful 2012. Alex Gordon was very good last year (led the league in doubles) while Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler recorded their best seasons to date. This team is loaded with young talent on offense and could be one of the better units in the American league.

Pitching: This will decide what kind of season Kansas City has in 2013. James Shields seems to be a solid number one but behind him,  Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza are four giant question marks.

The Outlook: The Royals will take a large step forward in their process to become a competitive team. However, that won’t be enough to land them in the playoffs just yet.

11.   Baltimore Orioles

The Lowdown: The Orioles rode a 29-9 record in one-run games to quite possibly the luckiest playoff appearance of all time. This year they bring back nearly the same team but will have to deal with the issue of regression.

Offense: There’s a lot of pop here, especially from Manny Machado and Adam Jones, but there are holes too. Nate McLouth will likely be in the Opening Day lineup and they’re relying on Brian Roberts to contribute long after his body has thrown in the towel. Despite these shortcomings, the Orioles should be able to score at a respectable rate this year.

Pitching: There’s not much to say about the pitching staff. There’s depth but there’s no ace. They’re basically just a bunch of average to below average guys. Plus, there’s no way the bullpen can replicate last year’s success. Expect a below-average output from this staff.

The Outlook: Regression will hit the Orioles hard this year as they struggle to get to .500. Make no mistake, however, the Orioles are headed in the right direction long term.

This is the part where you realize the Yankees have not yet appeared on this list. Fret not, Yankee faithful; the Bombers’ offseason merits its own piece. Look for that in the next few days.

Stay Hungry, My friends. 

National League Preview: Long-Awaited Dominance

     

  After suffering through years of inferiority to the American league, the National League has emerged as the far superior outfit. They may very well boast the league’s top four teams and have won the last three World Series and All Star Games.

        The Giants have won two of the last three World Series but they wouldn’t have made it that far last year if it wasn’t for their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit in the NLCS. The Cardinals, who came out on the wrong side of that series, will be looking to replicate their 2011 success which led to a World Series title. Meanwhile the Reds, equipped with a healthy Joey Votto, will look to build on their 97-win 2012 campaign. However, none of these teams landed the top spot on this year’s pre-season power rankings.

1.       Washington Nationals

The Lowdown: When last we left the Nats, they were in shock after blowing a six-run lead to the Cardinals in the divisional series. However, Nationals faithful need not worry; General Manager Mike Rizzo has put together a squad as capable of winning a title as any in the league.

Offense: The Nationals had a better offense in 2012 than most realize, finishing 10^th in runs scored. Denard Span was added in free agency while Bryce Harper will benefit from a year of experience under his belt. Meanwhile Ryan Zimmerman,  Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond and Jayson Werth make round out one of baseball’s quietly greatest lineups.

Pitching: Steven Strasburg for a full season, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Dan Haren and Ross Detwiler as a starting rotation. Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen and Rafael Soriano in the Bullpen. The names speak for themselves. The Nationals have the best pitching in baseball.

The Outlook: The Nats should easily win the East and will likely have the best record in the National league for a second consecutive year. Look for them to win 95+ games and contend for their first World Series.

2.       San Francisco Giants

The Lowdown: The Giants are looking to become the first time in 13 years to win three World Series titles in four seasons. They’re ascent into dynasty status will be dependent on the offense, which cost them a trip to the playoffs in 2011.

Offense: The 2012 season was a quality bounce back for what was an abysmal offense the year before. The continued presence of Buster Posey-reigning NL MVP and the league’s best hitting catcher-should be as impactful as any player in the league. It’s tough to know what you’re getting from Pablo Sandoval but if he’s able to play at the level he’s capable of, him and Posey should be a formidable duo. The Giants should also see solid contributions from Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence.

Pitching: A quality pitching staff has become a staple of the Giants organization. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner provide the game’s best one-two punch while Ryan Vogelsong is a very capable third starter. The only question mark on this staff is former Cy Yong winner Tim Lincecum. He’ll be looking to bounce back from a disastrous 2012 that saw him post the worst numbers of his career. 

The Outlook: The Giants are capable of taking home the World Series title yet again. Look for them to accumulate 95 wins and earn another division title.

3.       Cincinnati Reds

The Lowdown: The Reds overcame Votto’s summer knee issues through the surprise play of rookie Todd Frazier and stellar pitching. The Reds will try to earn their third NL Central crown in four years with the possible benefit of a full season from Votto; one of the game’s best hitters.

Offense: Votto’s increased playing time should be a major boost to what was a mediocre offense last season. The addition of Sin Soo Choo should be an upgrade while Frazier and Jay Bruce should continue to see improvement.

Pitching: The Reds allowed the second-least runs in the MLB last year but they could be due for some regression. Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos appear to be a very good top two. But the three-four-five combo of Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Bronson Arroyo could be a concern. All three pitched very well last year but have struggled as recently as 2011.

The Outlook: The Reds are good enough to win the Central again this year. Their dual aces and litany of power hitters provide some hope for a playoff run. Don’t be surprised to see the Reds playing deep into October.

4.       St. Louis Cardinals

The Lowdown: The Cardinals looked primed for a second consecutive championship before they blew a 3-1 series lead to the Giants. They bring back nearly everyone for year two of the post-Pujols era, looking to bring a 12^th World Series trophy to St. Louis.

Offense: While the offense has all the potential to be a top unit, there are legimate concerns about nearly everyone in the lineup. Allen Craig and David Freese aren’t totally proven yet. Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday are getting up there in age. Yadier Molina should be due for some negative regression after a stellar 2012.

Pitching: The Cards let Kyle Lohse walk instead of seeing if he could replicate his 2012 success. That’s a good move considering the depth they possess at starting pitcher. Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn and Jake Westbrook make up a fantastic quartet. Pitching will not be an issue this year in St. Louis.

The Outlook: While the Reds are favorites to win the Central this year, the Cardinals should give them a good race. Expect the Red Birds to at least grab a Wild-Card spot. Then, October is where they do their real damage.

5.       Atlanta Braves

The Lowdown: All-time great Chipper Jones’s career ended in disappointment amidst a rain of garbage last year as they fell to St. Louis in a one-game playoff. The Braves made a lot of noise this offseason as they lost a few starters (Jones, Michael Bourn) and gained a couple others (Justin Upton, BJ Upton).

Offense: This lineup doesn’t have the clout of the top four teams but there’s some real talent here. Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are young up and comers while BJ Upton and Brian McCann (when he returns) should provide consistent production. This offense should be able to make up for the losses of Jones and Bourn but may not be a top-10 unit.

Pitching: The staff is led by wily veterans Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm but the fate of the unit may rely on the development of Kris Medlen. If he can replicate last year’s results, this will be one of the league’s most formidable trios. Meanwhile the bullpen is solid, anchored by closer Craig Kimbrel.

The Outlook: If the young guns are able to continue developing, the Braves should be able to grab a wild card spot.

6.      Los Angeles Dodgers

The Lowdown: The Dodgers spent themselves into contender status in the past few months. But all the major moves have masked the major shortcomings on this team. Unless they’re able to make even more moves, this team will have some major holes.

Offense: For all the moves they’ve made in the past few months, the lineup still isn’t really above average. Luis Cruz, Dee Gordon, A.J. Ellis and Skip Schumaker should all see opening-day action. The big bats, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez, aren’t the hitters they used to be and Carl Crawford will likely start the year on the DL (not that he matters).  Much like the last few years, the offense will rely on the health of Matt Kemp and Andre Eithier.

Pitching: Zach Greinke will likely avoid starting the year on the DL. But any type of injury trouble for the former Cy Young winner should strike fear in the hearts of Dodgers faithful after the team committed nine figures to him this winter. Then, of course, there’s no reason Clayton Kershaw won’t continue to post CyYoung-worthy seasons.  The rest of the staff is deep but full of question marks. Does Josh Beckett have anything left in the tank? How will Hyun-Jin Ryu fair in the MLB? Is Chris Capuano really still around?

The Outlook: As it stands, the Dodgers are a walking albatross. Ramirez, Gonzalez, Beckett, Crawford and Greinke make far more than they’re worth. With a nearly-unlimited budget, this may not matter. However, this doesn’t make the Dodgers any more of a complete team. Unless they pull off some deadline magic, they’ll be on the outside looking in come October.

7.       Arizona Diamondbacks

The Lowdown: The D’Backs fell on hard times last year after a surprise 2011 campaign. They struggled in one-run games and were one of the most unlucky teams in baseball. However the team parted with some key young players in the offseason which will hurt their 2013 chances.

Offense:  Obviously the Diamondbacks are without their best offensive player from 2012 after the Upton trade. But there’s a lot of quiet talent of this offense. Paul Goldschmidt, Jason Kubel and Miguel Montero make up the most underrated trio in the league. This offense will be better than most expect, especially with the acquisitions of Cliff Pennington and Cody Ross.

Pitching: Top prospect/Golden child Trevor Bauer was inexplicably traded in the offseason, but the staff should survive with depth and experience. Trevor Cahill, Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley and Brandon McCarthy are young, underrated and provide a solid quartet.

The Outlook: If everything breaks right, the D’ Backs will make the playoffs. However, the most likely scenario sees them finishing just outside the playoff picture for a second year in a row.

8.      Pittsburgh Pirates

The Lowdown: The Pirates led the central division until mid-July last year before totally collapsing and finishing with a losing record for the 20^th consecutive season. They remained most quiet in the offseason.

Offense: After a historically slow start, the offense performed decently well for the second half of the season. Andrew McCutchen is one of the league’s best while Neil Walker, Garrett Jones, Pedro Alvarez and Russell Martin provide some pop in an otherwise below-average lineup.

Pitching: The fate of the 2013 season lies with the pitching staff. At first glance, this starting five looks excellent. That is, until you start to break down the concerns. James McDonald is prone to incredible stretches, but has never had a full, quality season. AJ Burnett is now 36 and there has to be some concern that last year was a mirage. After that Jeff Karstens, Wandy Rodriguez and Jonathan Sanchez round out a good but not great staff.

The Outlook: The Pirates will struggle to compete with the Reds and the Cardinals but will avoid their 21st consecutive losing season. 

9.       Philadelphia Phillies

The Lowdown: The Phillies learned the hard way last year that not everyone can receive a major long-term deal. The team struggled through injuries to finish .500 and out of the playoffs for the first time in six years.

Offense: Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley aren’t getting any younger. Both Howard and Utley missed huge chunks last year and neither are the players they once were. New addition Michael Young was terrible for Texas last season and likely won’t make much of a positive impact for the Phils. In fact, there’s a good chance that Ben Revere, acquired from Minnesota, will be the most valuable hitter in the lineup.

Pitching: After one year of performing well together, the Phillies dream team of pitching was totally average last year. Roy Halladay missed nearly the entire year with an injury and early reports out of Spring Training say the 35-year old has lost some speed on his fast ball. Cliff Lee wasn’t as bad as his win total indicated last season but he isn’t a Cy Young type anymore either. Meanwhile Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan aren’t sure things at the four and five spot. Cole Hamels is still one of the league’s best but there’s nothing but question marks behind him.

The Outlook: The best case scenario is Lee and Halladay have bounce back seasons, Kendrick and Lannan perform well and the infield hits well and stays healthy as the Phillies earn a wild card spot as a last hurrah of this era. But, the most likely scenario involves them struggling to stay healthy and missing the playoffs for the second consecutive year as they struggle to figure out what to do with an abundance of bad contracts.

So that’s that for the National League. Those are the nine teams with any sort of chance at representing the NL in the World Series. In the coming days we’ll have the same for the American league.

Stay Hungry, My Friends. 

Beat the Heat

Well as the NBA regular season comes to a close, it has become quite clear who the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA Championship is.  Lebron James and the Miami Heat seem close to unbeatable at this point and almost anyone would be shocked if they didn’t win it all.  However there are a plethora of teams fighting to do it and I’m going to rank the teams in order of how likely I think it is that these teams could beat the Heat in a 7 game series.  This doesn’t take into account whether they will play the Heat, just if they could beat them if they get there.  Also look at this terrifying shot chart that belongs to the Heat

If you are wondering, Green means you shoot above average from the spot, and yellow means below average, basically there is no space on the floor that the Heat are below average at.  Also I’m going to be throwing these in for every team for 2 reasons, one it tells you how a team’s offense works

·         New York Knicks (10% chance)

Well after the Knicks hot start to the season it seemed like a decent possibility that they might end up as a strong threat in the Eastern Conference.  The team was playing well against Miami and combined arguably the best offense in basketball with a strong defense.  However since that hot start the Knicks have fallen back to earth, they now have a strong but not elite offense ranking 7^th in the league and a defense that ranks 17^th.  The offense that is highly dependent on 3’s was shooting them at an unsustainably high rate and has regressed.  While the defense has collapsed as Tyson Chandler is basically the only reliable defensive player on the team.  This team has shown through the season that is matchups up strangely well against Miami mainly because the Heat can’t exploit the Knicks lack of a true power forward and the Knicks move the ball well against the Heat’s strong help defense.  I still find it extremely unlikely though that this team could beat the Heat in a 7 game series considering they are below average defensively and facing Lebron James.

·         Los Angeles Clippers (20% chance)

Surprised that the Clippers are ranked this low well maybe you shouldn’t be.  They have what might be the 3^rd best player in basketball in Chris Paul, one of the best power forwards in Blake Griffin and probably the best bench in the league.  However in a 7 game series I just can’t see this team beating the Heat.  This team is 4^th in the league in offense and 7^th in defense, a recipe that would seemingly be successful against the Heat.  The problem is the Knicks in the East, the Clippers haven’t been as exceptional a team since their great start and 17 game winning streak.  They don’t have an elite rim protector to help against the constant refrain of Lebron James and Dwayne Wade attacking the rim and is 27^th in the league in opponents’ 3 point percentage, considering Miami is 2^nd in the league in 3 point shooting percentage that could prove to be an issue. 

·         Indiana Pacers (25% chance)

Well a quick look at their offensive charts would not suggest that Indiana would have no chance against the Heat, and the charts give a fair representation of the 20^th ranked offensive team in basketball.  However this Indiana team happens to be the best defensive team in the league, so they definitely have a chance.  They have allowed the 2^nd least amount of 3’s in the league and teams make them at the lowest rate, something that could prove valuable against the Heat.  They have Roy Hibbert who happens to be one of the best interior help defenders in the league.  The starting lineup can without question go toe to toe with the Heat, but the weak bench and the weak offense definitely hurts them.  I’m sure these two teams will play in a series against each other though and I would expect the series to be very similar to last year’s. 

·         Denver Nuggets (30% chance)

Looking at the Nugget’s shot chart it would seem unlikely that the Nuggets are an elite offensive team.  They don’t shoot above average from any spot on the court and would seem to be an average offensive team at best.  However because of their shot proximity they have the 3^rd best offense in the NBA.  They take an insane 55.22% of their shots at the rim, an amazing figure that allows a team that isn’t great at shooting jump shots to score at such an efficient rate.  They are an elite offensive rebounding team, ranking 3^rd in the league in offensive rebounding percentage, and play at the 2^nd fastest pace of any team in the league.  The Nuggets are an extremely unique team that takes almost all of their shots at the rim and is a contender without a true superstar.  If the Nuggets play the Heat though it will come down to one factor, defense.  The Nuggets aren’t an elite defense team ranking 12^th, but are much improved over last year’s 20^th ranked defense and have improved as the season’s gone along.  They still give up way too many 3s ranking 2^nd last in 3 point attempts made against and taken and they don’t have an elite rim protector.  However the addition of a quite dangerous Wilson Chandler and a home court advantage that is the best in all of basketball makes this team interesting.  Also they have Andre Iguodala arguably the best perimeter defender in the league, an asset when facing Lebron James.

·         Oklahoma City Thunder (35% chance)

Some of you may be surprised to see my thoughts on the Thunder’s chances aren’t that good.  This team has the 2^nd best record in the West, won the Western Conference last year, and at this point seems like the favorite to win the conference again.  Offensively despite a major problem with turnovers, they turn the ball over on 14.6% of possessions, 2^nd worst rate in the league; this team is still 2^nd in the league in offensive efficiency.  The defense is a solid unit ranking 7^th in the league, led by noticeable improvements from Serge Ibaka, Kevin Durant among others.  The problem is we saw this team play the Heat last season in the Finals and they lost in 5 games.  I don’t see where the Thunder could have passed the Heat in terms of productivity.  The Thunder lost James Harden, their star 6^th man and present day all-star.  While there have been marked improvements in the games of Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka is that enough to make up for the loss of Harden, and the talent gap between them and Miami, I don’t think so.  Lebron James has gotten even better than last season and the addition of Ray Allen, along with the Heat’s commitment to small ball has made them very tough to beat.  The Thunder aren’t designed to beat a team like Miami, also they will continue to play Kendrick Perkins 20 minutes a game, a player that doesn’t provide any value against the Heat.

·         Memphis Grizzlies (40% chance)

The Grizzlies are an interesting team.  I could quite easily see this team getting knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, but if they play the Heat, wow is that an interesting matchup.  This team is built as differently as the Heat as a contender can be.  In the era of small ball led by the Miami Heat the Grizzlies have responded with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol as the foundation of their team.  This team goes big and attempts to shut teams out with their ferocious defense.  While the team struggles offensively, though they are improved since they traded Rudy Gay, their defense makes them an interesting matchup for Miami.  They have Marc Gasol, who is probably the best center in all of basketball and has a strong case for defensive player of the year.  Gasol also is basically a point guard since they traded Rudy Gay averaging 4.5 APG, a ridiculous number for a center.  This team has the 2^nd best defense in basketball that is 4^th best in eFG% and 2^nd best in TOV%.  This team can definitely do a good job of containing Miami’s offense, led by elite perimeter defenders Mike Conley and Tony Allen, solid Tayshaun Prince and Gasol.  Offensively this team which is quite weak should be able to exploit Miami’s greatest weakness.  Miami is 21^st in Defensive Rebounding % while Memphis leads the league in Offensive Rebounding %, meaning Memphis is either going to have to allow Memphis to pound them on the glass or weakness their offense by giving additional minutes to Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony types.  Overall though Miami would still have to be the favorite in the series though because they have Lebron James who Memphis doesn’t have a great way of matching up with and Memphis’ offense is still probably too weak. 

·         San Antonio Spurs (45% chance)

Now to those who read me, me saying the Spurs have the best chance of beating the Heat shouldn’t come as a surprise.  Stay with me though this isn’t about me being a fan it’s about objective analysis.  The Spurs this season have without question been one of the 3 best teams in the league ranked somewhere with Miami and OKC.  This team that offensively was unstoppable last season but defensively middling has seen minor offensive regression to go with their transformation back into an elite defensive team.  Defensively they have an elite rim protector in Tim Duncan, who is having his best season in years and is averaging his most blocks per game since 2004.  They have Tiago Splitter a solid interior defender in his own right, along with two solid perimeter defenders in Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard.  The Spurs play smart defense forces opponents into bad shots, while they collect rebounds and don’t foul.  A defense that likely won’t be able to stop Miami but will definitely be able to slow it down.  Offensively though is where they really matchup well.  This team has two offensive forces in bigs, with Tim Duncan in the post and Tiago Splitter might be the most underrated pick and roll player in the league.  This team as shown above doesn’t have any real weak spots offensively and takes a high percentage of shots at the most efficient spots on the floor.  They are a great passing team, a necessity against Miami’s help defense laden attack.  They have Tony Parker a fringe MVP candidate and really an elite offensive talent.  The Spurs are a team that can exploit Miami’s weaknesses both offensively and defensively the best of any team in the league in my opinion and if Miami is going to lose to a team this year it would likely be the Spurs.  To be fair though the Heat would still be favorites, want to know why?  

Major NBA End of Season Stories

Well this season of the NBA thus far has been quite exciting and should lead to an exciting finish.  There are a few major storylines that I want to give notice to as this season comes to a close.

Will the Miami Heat lose again?

The answer to this question is almost undoubtedly yes, but seriously as this season is drawing to a close it is getting harder and harder to see this team not winning a NBA Championship.  This team has Lebron James for one, a player who is undoubtedly the best player in all of basketball in Lebron James a top 10 player in Dwayne Wade and a star in his own right in Chris Bosh.  This season this team is on a 16 game winning streak, its point differential is 3^rd in basketball at 7.17 PPG, is 2^nd in the NBA in offense and 11^th in defense.  Maybe the most interesting fact about the team though is that their top 11 most commonly used 4 man lineups feature a point differential per 100 possessions of at least 12.4, an insanely impressive figure.  When the playoffs come along this team can use these much more effective combinations on a more frequent basis which will allow them to be even more effective come playoff time. 

Who wins the West’s Top Seed?

The Spurs have a 3 game edge now, and with 13 of their 20 games left at home it would seem like the Spurs have a decisive edge.  However there is one issue plaguing the Spurs as they attempt to hold off OKC, Tony Parker is going to miss about a month.  Tony Parker, arguably the best point guard in basketball this season and borderline MVP candidate is gone.  This player has led the Spurs to the best record in basketball while leading the 6^th best offense and the 3^rd best defense.  This would be a major issue for most teams, and will be for the Spurs come playoff time but I don’t expect it to be a huge one for these Spurs.  They have the best coach in the NBA in Gregg Popovich who always seems to get the best out of his players and overachieve even without his stars.  Most notably the controversial game against Miami where he rested the Spurs big 3 and Danny Green.  OKC though is a constant threat, especially considering they employ Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  This team has the best offense, 8^th best defense, and the best point differential in basketball.  Shockingly even my biggest hatred with the way OKC plays, giving Kendrick Perkins minutes hasn’t killed them this season.  The team has a better point differential with him on the floor than off the floor, which is impressive but also likely due to the high number of minutes he plays with the starting lineup. 

The Race for 8

The West holds the most exciting race in all of basketball right now, while also the most completely overcovered.  Look everyone is now acting like the Lakers are totally back now that they are .500 and seem to be getting prepared for playoff time.  Couple of things, for most of the season the Lakers underperformed in close games, they were due for a regression, that has come and now the team is about at the level they should be.  This team has the 8^th best offense in basketball, impressive yes, but the 21^st defense isn’t scaring any potential first round opponents.  The return of Pau Gasol could make them more dangerous but D’Antoni still hasn’t proven he can use him effectively in his offense.  Really though this team can’t defend anyone and isn’t a real threat come playoff time.  Also Houston is making the playoffs, I will guarantee that.  Golden State should miss but has an easy schedule down the stretch, and that basically leaves Utah and the Lakers.  I could see both teams making it they are pretty even in terms of quality of team.  How about this stat, the Lakers most commonly used 5 man unit, which has played 293 minutes together, has a point differential of 1.3 points.  Is there any team in basketball afraid of that, I can guarantee not, why they can’t play defense, also it features Earl Clark who isn’t that good. 

Award Races

Now some quick hits for my thoughts on the award races thus far this season.

MVP: Lebron James

No debate, he is 1^st in PER, he is a great defensive player, and when he is on the floor they outscore opponents by 11.2 points per 100 possessions, and when he isn’t they get outscored by 3.2.  He is good at basketball, there should be no debate for this award.

Rookie of the Year:  Damian Lillard

While I am tempted to give Anthony Davis, a player who this season on a per minute basis has been more effective than Anthony Davis this award I have to give it to Lillard who has played substantially more minutes and more dramatically impacted his team who almost falls apart when he isn’t on the floor.

Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich

Basically this man gets the award until he retires no further explanation needed.

6^th Man of the Year: Jarrett Jack

This season Jack is averaging 13.4 PPG, 5.6 APG, and 3.1 RPG for the Golden State Warriors in a tremendous season.  This is probably the best perimeter defender on a team that is contending for a playoff spot and for much of the season was helping to keep the team’s mediocre defense afloat.  He has a solid PER of 16.5 and considering the minute load he has handled he definitely deserves the award. 

Stay Hungry My Friends

Standing with Rand

Currently it is 12:48 am Thursday March 7th, 2013 and I have just spent the last 10 hours watching a man literally stand up for what he believed to be right for almost 13 straight hours. This man's name is Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and with only using his voice and standing on his own two feet Senator Paul brought the business of the United States Government to a screeching halt. How you might ask? Well due to the oldest loophole in the history of the rules of the United States Senate, Senators may hold the floor until they literally can speak no more, this practice is commonly known as the filibuster. Senator Paul was protesting the Obama administration justifying the use of drones to kill American citizens, on American soil.

There came a point when the filibuster itself transcended his message, and the idea that one man standing on a figurative soap box can speak and people will listen came to light. Speaking your voice and knowing it matters and is heard is a principle that is so fundamentally American, and is our most important and sacred right. The true filibuster is the ultimate expression of our first amendment right and shows that just because a majority of people believe something to be true, does not make that thing true or right. As long as Senators continue to filibuster just as Rand Paul did tonight the right of the minority will never be completely taken away. If you take away anything from this post take away this and that is if you have a conviction fight for it and never let anyone take it away.

What Senator Paul did I am sure will be examined and politicized within the next couple of days. This really was not about politics and it is wrong to make it about that. You can ask anyone who knows me, I am a Democrat and proud of it, and I am an Obama supporter and proud of it. Tonight someone informed me and convinced me that the actions of the President are both morally and legally wrong and that as a nation we must hold him accountable. Paul is trying to protect the basis of our laws and legal traditions and make it known that the executive branch over the past two administrations has over stepped it's constitutional boundaries. 

Alright I know this is not a political blog and I have tried to remain neutral throughout this entire entry but I thought this was important. However I am the pop culture end of this blog, so before I leave you, I need you to watch two things. First the 1939 movie called Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, this movie truly captures the romanticism of the filibuster and how powerful and truly awesome it can be. Then the other thing is to watch an episode of the show The West Wing called "The Stackhouse Filibuster" I believe it is in season two, I am not sure. This shows how the Filibuster can get people listening and actually how it affects the government and change things in the country. 

Thanks for listening 

Stay Hungry My Friends 

The Greatest of All Time Part IV: Muhammad Ali

I AM THE GREATEST!

If you are looking for a candidate that would qualify as the most modest all-time great athlete than you have come to the wrong place.  A whole lot can be said about Muhammad Ali, or Cassius Clay, but two things are certain he was an all-time great and he knew it.  So for the 4^th part of the Greatest of All Time series, Muhammad Ali will be honored.

                For those that don’t read me regularly you probably notice that I often use analytics and advanced stats in my work but for this piece there exists an issue.  In boxing, and especially classic boxing there doesn’t exist good analytics or advanced stats that help make comparisons across generations.  However I will go over his record and some of his accomplishments.  Well here is a comprehensive list of most of his accomplishments:

·         1960 Olympic Light Heavyweight Gold Medalist

·         3-Time Heavyweight World Champion

·         Career Record 56-5

·         37 Knockouts (60.66% of all of his fights)

This is quite an impressive resume by in all actuality probably doesn’t signify exactly how good Ali was.  Ali’s career likely coincided with the greatest group of boxers in one weight class in one man’s career.  Think about this in his career he fought Sonny Liston twice, Floyd Patterson twice, Joe Frazier 3 times, Ken Norton 3 times, George Foreman, Ernie Shavers, Leon Spinks twice, and lost to Larry Holmes.  By Ring Magazine’s rankings of the top heavyweights of all-time, he defeated the 7^th greatest twice, the 21^st twice, beat the 8^th twice and lost once, beat the 22^nd twice and lost once, beat the 4^th, beat the 33^rd, and while Leon Spinks wasn’t ranked, he lost to the 5^th best once while at the end of his career. 

Looking at that resume his enough to make a strong case for the greatest heavyweight of all-time, however there is even more to add to the case.  In 1967 when Muhammad Ali was in the prime of his career at the age of 25  and with a record of 27-0 Muhammad Ali was stripped of his Heavyweight crown and banned from boxing for making the decision to be a “conscientious objector” to the War in Vietnam.  This destroyed 3 years in the prime of Ali’s career during that time he could have really cemented his legacy.  Also this is setting aside the courage it took to make the decision knowing what would happen to him. 

After finally being reinstated in 1970 at the age of 28 he made his return to the world of boxing.  While having a few dramatic fights along the way, including the first two losses of his career, Ali wouldn’t regain the Heavyweight belt until 1974, at the age of 32, definitely past his athletic prime.  He did this in what is probably one of the more famous fights of all time as he defeated Knocked out George Foreman in a Rumble in the Jungle.  At the time Foreman was considered one of the most dominant Heavyweights of all-time, who was 40-0 at the time with 37 by knockout and was at the ripe age of 25.  Ali used his infamous and creative rope-a-dope tactic to great success and was able to pull off the upset. 

While he had a series of battles against Ken Norton and Leon Spinks as his career went on after that where he lost and then regained the Heavyweight belt.  What will always define Ali’s career and rightfully so by his 3 battles with Joe Frazier.  These two fighters who fought a grandtotal of 41 rounds against one another brought out the best and the worst out of each other but created some quite amazing theatre.  Actually watch the Thrilla in Manilla RIGHT NOW!!! I’m posting here watch it, if you have the time it is literally the most entertaining boxing match ever.  It is actually a miracle that neither of those men died after the fight. 

Alright well now that you’ve watched it you probably realize why Ali is the greatest.  If you didn’t watch the fight you watched the two toughest boxers ever duke it out and attempt to kill one another in a boxing ring.   Ali made Frazier hate him before the fight and Frazier’s goal was point blank to kill him in the rink, thus Ali had to react in turn

Really this is Ali’s greatness, he fought every style of boxer and defeated every one.  He was dominant, robbed of much of his prime and had great rivals that only elevated his legacy.  I can’t say for sure that Muhammad Ali is the greatest heavyweight of All Time, but I can tell you one thing, he has a strong case and I know he believes he is. 

Now I leave you with this awesome speech. 

Stay Hungry My Friends