Beat the Heat

Well as the NBA regular season comes to a close, it has become quite clear who the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA Championship is.  Lebron James and the Miami Heat seem close to unbeatable at this point and almost anyone would be shocked if they didn’t win it all.  However there are a plethora of teams fighting to do it and I’m going to rank the teams in order of how likely I think it is that these teams could beat the Heat in a 7 game series.  This doesn’t take into account whether they will play the Heat, just if they could beat them if they get there.  Also look at this terrifying shot chart that belongs to the Heat

If you are wondering, Green means you shoot above average from the spot, and yellow means below average, basically there is no space on the floor that the Heat are below average at.  Also I’m going to be throwing these in for every team for 2 reasons, one it tells you how a team’s offense works

·         New York Knicks (10% chance)

Well after the Knicks hot start to the season it seemed like a decent possibility that they might end up as a strong threat in the Eastern Conference.  The team was playing well against Miami and combined arguably the best offense in basketball with a strong defense.  However since that hot start the Knicks have fallen back to earth, they now have a strong but not elite offense ranking 7^th in the league and a defense that ranks 17^th.  The offense that is highly dependent on 3’s was shooting them at an unsustainably high rate and has regressed.  While the defense has collapsed as Tyson Chandler is basically the only reliable defensive player on the team.  This team has shown through the season that is matchups up strangely well against Miami mainly because the Heat can’t exploit the Knicks lack of a true power forward and the Knicks move the ball well against the Heat’s strong help defense.  I still find it extremely unlikely though that this team could beat the Heat in a 7 game series considering they are below average defensively and facing Lebron James.

·         Los Angeles Clippers (20% chance)

Surprised that the Clippers are ranked this low well maybe you shouldn’t be.  They have what might be the 3^rd best player in basketball in Chris Paul, one of the best power forwards in Blake Griffin and probably the best bench in the league.  However in a 7 game series I just can’t see this team beating the Heat.  This team is 4^th in the league in offense and 7^th in defense, a recipe that would seemingly be successful against the Heat.  The problem is the Knicks in the East, the Clippers haven’t been as exceptional a team since their great start and 17 game winning streak.  They don’t have an elite rim protector to help against the constant refrain of Lebron James and Dwayne Wade attacking the rim and is 27^th in the league in opponents’ 3 point percentage, considering Miami is 2^nd in the league in 3 point shooting percentage that could prove to be an issue. 

·         Indiana Pacers (25% chance)

Well a quick look at their offensive charts would not suggest that Indiana would have no chance against the Heat, and the charts give a fair representation of the 20^th ranked offensive team in basketball.  However this Indiana team happens to be the best defensive team in the league, so they definitely have a chance.  They have allowed the 2^nd least amount of 3’s in the league and teams make them at the lowest rate, something that could prove valuable against the Heat.  They have Roy Hibbert who happens to be one of the best interior help defenders in the league.  The starting lineup can without question go toe to toe with the Heat, but the weak bench and the weak offense definitely hurts them.  I’m sure these two teams will play in a series against each other though and I would expect the series to be very similar to last year’s. 

·         Denver Nuggets (30% chance)

Looking at the Nugget’s shot chart it would seem unlikely that the Nuggets are an elite offensive team.  They don’t shoot above average from any spot on the court and would seem to be an average offensive team at best.  However because of their shot proximity they have the 3^rd best offense in the NBA.  They take an insane 55.22% of their shots at the rim, an amazing figure that allows a team that isn’t great at shooting jump shots to score at such an efficient rate.  They are an elite offensive rebounding team, ranking 3^rd in the league in offensive rebounding percentage, and play at the 2^nd fastest pace of any team in the league.  The Nuggets are an extremely unique team that takes almost all of their shots at the rim and is a contender without a true superstar.  If the Nuggets play the Heat though it will come down to one factor, defense.  The Nuggets aren’t an elite defense team ranking 12^th, but are much improved over last year’s 20^th ranked defense and have improved as the season’s gone along.  They still give up way too many 3s ranking 2^nd last in 3 point attempts made against and taken and they don’t have an elite rim protector.  However the addition of a quite dangerous Wilson Chandler and a home court advantage that is the best in all of basketball makes this team interesting.  Also they have Andre Iguodala arguably the best perimeter defender in the league, an asset when facing Lebron James.

·         Oklahoma City Thunder (35% chance)

Some of you may be surprised to see my thoughts on the Thunder’s chances aren’t that good.  This team has the 2^nd best record in the West, won the Western Conference last year, and at this point seems like the favorite to win the conference again.  Offensively despite a major problem with turnovers, they turn the ball over on 14.6% of possessions, 2^nd worst rate in the league; this team is still 2^nd in the league in offensive efficiency.  The defense is a solid unit ranking 7^th in the league, led by noticeable improvements from Serge Ibaka, Kevin Durant among others.  The problem is we saw this team play the Heat last season in the Finals and they lost in 5 games.  I don’t see where the Thunder could have passed the Heat in terms of productivity.  The Thunder lost James Harden, their star 6^th man and present day all-star.  While there have been marked improvements in the games of Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka is that enough to make up for the loss of Harden, and the talent gap between them and Miami, I don’t think so.  Lebron James has gotten even better than last season and the addition of Ray Allen, along with the Heat’s commitment to small ball has made them very tough to beat.  The Thunder aren’t designed to beat a team like Miami, also they will continue to play Kendrick Perkins 20 minutes a game, a player that doesn’t provide any value against the Heat.

·         Memphis Grizzlies (40% chance)

The Grizzlies are an interesting team.  I could quite easily see this team getting knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, but if they play the Heat, wow is that an interesting matchup.  This team is built as differently as the Heat as a contender can be.  In the era of small ball led by the Miami Heat the Grizzlies have responded with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol as the foundation of their team.  This team goes big and attempts to shut teams out with their ferocious defense.  While the team struggles offensively, though they are improved since they traded Rudy Gay, their defense makes them an interesting matchup for Miami.  They have Marc Gasol, who is probably the best center in all of basketball and has a strong case for defensive player of the year.  Gasol also is basically a point guard since they traded Rudy Gay averaging 4.5 APG, a ridiculous number for a center.  This team has the 2^nd best defense in basketball that is 4^th best in eFG% and 2^nd best in TOV%.  This team can definitely do a good job of containing Miami’s offense, led by elite perimeter defenders Mike Conley and Tony Allen, solid Tayshaun Prince and Gasol.  Offensively this team which is quite weak should be able to exploit Miami’s greatest weakness.  Miami is 21^st in Defensive Rebounding % while Memphis leads the league in Offensive Rebounding %, meaning Memphis is either going to have to allow Memphis to pound them on the glass or weakness their offense by giving additional minutes to Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony types.  Overall though Miami would still have to be the favorite in the series though because they have Lebron James who Memphis doesn’t have a great way of matching up with and Memphis’ offense is still probably too weak. 

·         San Antonio Spurs (45% chance)

Now to those who read me, me saying the Spurs have the best chance of beating the Heat shouldn’t come as a surprise.  Stay with me though this isn’t about me being a fan it’s about objective analysis.  The Spurs this season have without question been one of the 3 best teams in the league ranked somewhere with Miami and OKC.  This team that offensively was unstoppable last season but defensively middling has seen minor offensive regression to go with their transformation back into an elite defensive team.  Defensively they have an elite rim protector in Tim Duncan, who is having his best season in years and is averaging his most blocks per game since 2004.  They have Tiago Splitter a solid interior defender in his own right, along with two solid perimeter defenders in Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard.  The Spurs play smart defense forces opponents into bad shots, while they collect rebounds and don’t foul.  A defense that likely won’t be able to stop Miami but will definitely be able to slow it down.  Offensively though is where they really matchup well.  This team has two offensive forces in bigs, with Tim Duncan in the post and Tiago Splitter might be the most underrated pick and roll player in the league.  This team as shown above doesn’t have any real weak spots offensively and takes a high percentage of shots at the most efficient spots on the floor.  They are a great passing team, a necessity against Miami’s help defense laden attack.  They have Tony Parker a fringe MVP candidate and really an elite offensive talent.  The Spurs are a team that can exploit Miami’s weaknesses both offensively and defensively the best of any team in the league in my opinion and if Miami is going to lose to a team this year it would likely be the Spurs.  To be fair though the Heat would still be favorites, want to know why?