American League Preview

Image courtesy of ESPNGo.com

The American League may be inferior to the National league, but there’s plenty of enticing story lines that will make for an exciting season. It wasn't long ago that popular opinion held that there were five or so teams that could win the World Series in a given year. Now there are 20; a testament to the saber metric revolution that has overtaken the sport. In the AL alone, there are 11 teams eyeing the postseason with reasonable expectations.  

The Angels are doing their best to financially compete with the Dodgers. The Rangers are looking to overcome a rough ending to 2012 and an underwhelming off-season. The A’s appear to be contenders for the long haul. All three are vying for the AL West title.

Meanwhile, the Rays are flying under the radar once again with a chance to reclaim AL East supremacy, the Blue Jays are relevant for the first time in two decades, the Orioles are looking to build on their first playoff appearance in 14 years, the Red Sox are hoping to forget about their 93-loss squad from last year and the Yankees…well things aren't exactly looking up in the Bronx.

The AL Central is loaded with young talent (aside from Minnesota) but the Tigers are all in for winning now. Could this be the year the Royals break through and play into October? Did the Indians do enough in the offseason to become a contender? Are the White Sox above average in any way?

              
 This list starts exactly where last year ended:

1.       Detroit Tigers

The Lowdown: The Tigers suffered through a mediocre regular season last year before heating up and making a run that landed them in the World Series. After being swept by the Giants, the team made a few upgrades in the offseason. Oh and they locked up the best pitcher of this generation up for the next seven years. Good stuff.

Offense: Omar Infante, Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez are great compliments to the terrifying trio of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson. This won’t be the best lineup in baseball but significant upgrades have been made to what was the 11^th best offense in 2012.

Pitching: The Tigers may very well have the best staff in the American league. Justin Verlander is as good a bet as any to win the Cy Young but he’s no alone on this staff. Max Scherzer in strike out percentage last year while Doug Fister provides quality production as a third starter. Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello are likely both overqualified to be fourth and fifth starters.

The Outlook: The Tigers appear to be strong favorites to take the AL Central and are a good bet to make their second consecutive World Series appearance.

2.       Tampa Bay Rays

The Lowdown: The Rays suffered through a season of bad luck (Won five games less than their Pythagorean expectation according to Baseball Reference) and poor performances on offense in 2012. They had a pretty quiet offseason aside from swapping 31-year-old pitcher James Shields for super prospect, Wil Myers. They’ll look to return to the playoffs after a rare miss last season.

Offense: While the offense struggled wire to wire last season, 2013 figures to be kinder to the Rays. They’ll have Evan Longoria back from injury which means more than most understand; Longoria is one of the best hitters in baseball. In addition, they should be seeing some positive regression for Luke Scott, Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist. Myers should be sent up to the big club at some point this year but if he isn’t able to produce right away look for the Rays to deal for a bat at the deadline.

Pitching: While the Tigers may have the best staff in the AL, the Rays bullpen and defense make them the best run preventing team in the majors. David Price is the reigning Cy Young winner while Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson are two of the best young pitchers in the game. Not to mention, Fernando Rodney is coming off a career year as a closer. The Rays remarkable turnaround from perennial laughing stock to baseball’s most well-run franchise has been fueled almost entirely by pitching. That will continue this year.

The Outlook: The Rays will win the AL East on the strength of incredible pitching and improved hitting.

3.       Oakland Athletics

The Lowdown: The A’s cracked the postseason for the first time in six years last season. Billy Beane made a few more shrewd moves in the offseason and has the team in position to make a World Series run in 2013.

Offense: At first glance it may not look like much, but the Oakland offense was built in the mold of a Bill James daydream. Josh Reddick may be the most underrated player in baseball while Yoenis Cespedes provides some serious pop. Other than that, the A’s will platoon and mix and match their way to a serviceable run output.

Pitching:  Like the Rays, the A’s make their bones in the pitching business. A deep staff is headlined by the vastly underrated trio of Brett Anderson, Tommy Millone and Jarrod Parker. They once again have a loaded bullpen and, most importantly, the incomparable Bartolo Colon will return from a PED suspension in April. I wouldn’t anticipate the A’s being anything short of spectacular on the mound.

The Outlook: While the Angels and Rangers made headlines for they’ve gained and lost, the A’s made the right moves to repeat as division champs. Once they get to the playoffs, anything could happen.

4.       Los Angeles Angels

The Lowdown: The Angels disappointed last year after spending gobs of money in free agency. However, it was often overlooked that Los Angeles had the best record in baseball after calling up rookie/golden child/messiah Mike Trout last May. This year, they spent even more money in free agency by signing slugger Josh Hamilton to a five-year deal.

Offense: This lineup isn’t as top heavy as it appears at first glance. In fact, this may be one of the better offenses in the game. Albert Pujols is aging and has started poorly in each of the last two seasons but he’s still one of the better hitters in the game when he gets going. Josh Hamilton is prone to slumps (like June-September last year) but, like Pujols,  is as good as they come when he gets going. Meanwhile Eric Aybar, Howie Kendrick and Mark Trumbo are no slouches themselves. Oh and then there’s that Mike Trout fellow. As baseball’s most dangerous offensive player, Trout completes a lineup that should strike fear into the hearts of anyone the Angels may run into in the playoffs.

Pitching: The pitching staff is much less of a sure thing for L.A. CJ Wilson was a slight disappointment last year but is definitely a candidate for a bounce back season. No one’s worried about Jered Weaver but there’s legitimate concerns about the back three of the rotation. Joe Blanton, Justin Vargas and Tommy Hanson are all risks on some level.

The Outlook: The pitching staff will balance out to be average for most of the season until they pull off another deadline blockbuster to pull another ace in. The offense carries the team to a wild card spot.

5.       Texas Rangers

The Lowdown: After representing the American league in two consecutive World Series, the Rangers were dispatched after a one-game wild card in 2012. Much has been made of what they lost last year but there hasn’t been nearly as much mention of what they still have.

Offense: The loss of Hamilton will hurt in the short term but was the right long-term move. They were right to dump Michael Young and not overpay for Mike Napoli. Contrary to popular opinion, Nolan Ryan made all the right moves this offseason. This offense is still one of the better units in the league. They aren’t young by any stretch, but Lance Berkman, Adrian Beltre, A.J. Pierzynski, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus comprise as dangerous of a lineup as there is in the American league.

Pitching: There’s some uncertainty on this staff but nothing to be too worried about. Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison make up an excellent start duo and Derek Holland is solid in his own right. The trouble lies beyond the top three.

The Outlook: There’s a lot of talent here and if they’re able to get the most out of an aging lineup and can snag a pitcher at the deadline, they’ll be World Series contenders. Look for them to grab a wild card spot for the second year in a row.

6.       Toronto Blue Jays

The Lowdown: The Blue Jays went all-in this offseason in an effort to end a playoff drought that has spanned two decades. The team is totally remade and will look to compete in the suddenly wide-open AL East.

Offense:  There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Blue Jays lineup this year. Edwin Encarnacion is due for some regression, Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie are unpredictable at this point, Jose Reyes obviously has a ton of talent but was average last year and Melky Cabrera is essentially a walking question mark. The best guess is that this offense will be at least above average. Then again, that’s precisely what we thought of the Reyes-led Marlins lineup last season.

Pitching: The pitching staff may be even more of a question mark than the lineup. R.A. Dickey is coming off, by far, his best season at age 39. He’s a definite regression candidate. Josh Johnson has always been a huge injury risk and is anyone sure what Mark Buehrle has left in the tank?

The Outlook: The Blue Jays have more of a chance for variance than anyone on this list. If everything goes well, they could contend for the World Series. If everything breaks wrong, they’ll likely miss the playoffs. The most-likely scenario sees the Jays contending but falling short of the postseason.

7.       Chicago White Sox

The Lowdown: The White Sox surprised some people in 2012 by nearly grabbing the AL Central Title. They have a lot of young talent but will it be enough to push them into the playoffs?

Offense: The lineup is above average but only slightly. There’s plenty of young guys who could see plenty of improvement this year. Alejandro De Aza, Dayan Viciedo, Tyler Flowers and Gordon Beckham are all on the right side of 27 while Paul Konerko and Alexei Ramirez appear to have enough left in the tank. Flowers is a downgrade from Pierzynski but the offense should chug along just fine.

Pitching: The staff as a whole is pretty average. Chris Sale is very likely an ace and Jake Peavy had a pretty nice season himself in 2012. Gavin Floyd is back but is as average as ever. The real question on this staff is whether Jose Quintana and Dylan Axelrod can hold up on the back end of the rotation.

The Outlook: If luck is in their favor, the White Sox could make a surprise run in the Central. However, they’ll likely fall just short of the playoffs again as they’re just not as talented as some of the other American League teams. It’s only a matter of time, however, until the young talent on offense carries this team into the playoffs.

8.       Boston Red Sox

The Lowdown: The Red Sox suffered through a Murphy’s Law season last year and lost 93 games for the first time since the Lyndon Johnson administration. Overpaid veterans, a lack of prospects, a poisonous environment and terrible injury luck were the main culprits in the disaster of a season. All of those problems will be solved in some degree this season, will it be enough to push the Sox back into the playoffs for the first time this decade?

Offense: The offense wasn’t much of a problem last year and it doesn’t figure to be one in 2013 either. Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli aren’t superstars but they’re both nice additions to the lineup. While it may seem like ages ago, Dustin Pedroia was once MVP and is still in his prime. Then there’s the plethora of young talent with Will Middlebrooks, Jackie Bradley and Jose Iglesias all earning jobs. If Jacoby Ellsbury is able to stay healthy, this is a very good lineup.

Pitching:  Pitching has been a major issue for the Sox in each of the last two seasons. However, things can’t get much worse than they were last season. Jon Lester’s era was nearly a point higher than his career average; he’ll be better in 2013. The addition Ryan Dempster and John Lackey’s recovery from surgery will also be improvements from last year. The Sox also retained Felix Doubront; who was noticeably their best pitcher last season.

The Outlook: The Sox will improve and likely will surprise many in how quickly they do. However, they’re just good enough to earn a playoff spot in 2013.

9.       Cleveland Indians

The Lowdown: The Indians surprised some people early last year but totally collapsed down the stretch due to pitching issues. The team made some moves in the offseason in an attempt to compete this year, but will it be enough?

Offense: Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana? There’s some real talent on this offense. However, the team will likely be shackled by the Mark Reynolds/Drew Stubbs end of the lineup. Regardless, this offense is an improvement from 2012.

Pitching: The pitching will likely still be an issue in Cleveland. They have no ace and one has to wonder what Scott Kazmir has left in the tank after a rough couple years. The best they can hope is Ubaldo Jimenez finds some of that 2010 magic and Justin Masterson can put forth above average production. Otherwise, they could be one of the worst staffs in the league.

The Outlook: The Indians are improved, but not enough to compete in the American league this year.

10.   Kansas City Royals

The Lowdown: For the first time in decades, the Royals are a threat to play into October. However, a perplexing trade that sent their best prospect, Wil Myers, to Tampa Bay has soured many Royals fans on the future.

Offense: If the Royals do make a run this year, it will be because a few of their young guys had breakout seasons. Eric Hosmer is the best candidate for one after a pitiful 2012. Alex Gordon was very good last year (led the league in doubles) while Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler recorded their best seasons to date. This team is loaded with young talent on offense and could be one of the better units in the American league.

Pitching: This will decide what kind of season Kansas City has in 2013. James Shields seems to be a solid number one but behind him,  Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza are four giant question marks.

The Outlook: The Royals will take a large step forward in their process to become a competitive team. However, that won’t be enough to land them in the playoffs just yet.

11.   Baltimore Orioles

The Lowdown: The Orioles rode a 29-9 record in one-run games to quite possibly the luckiest playoff appearance of all time. This year they bring back nearly the same team but will have to deal with the issue of regression.

Offense: There’s a lot of pop here, especially from Manny Machado and Adam Jones, but there are holes too. Nate McLouth will likely be in the Opening Day lineup and they’re relying on Brian Roberts to contribute long after his body has thrown in the towel. Despite these shortcomings, the Orioles should be able to score at a respectable rate this year.

Pitching: There’s not much to say about the pitching staff. There’s depth but there’s no ace. They’re basically just a bunch of average to below average guys. Plus, there’s no way the bullpen can replicate last year’s success. Expect a below-average output from this staff.

The Outlook: Regression will hit the Orioles hard this year as they struggle to get to .500. Make no mistake, however, the Orioles are headed in the right direction long term.

This is the part where you realize the Yankees have not yet appeared on this list. Fret not, Yankee faithful; the Bombers’ offseason merits its own piece. Look for that in the next few days.

Stay Hungry, My friends.