Image courtesy of Bleacherreport.com
Only a few days after posting my divisional round preview, I
posted another piece critiquing my first round
picks. Essentially I was overreacting to the early stages of the series. I had
picked all four series to go either six or seven games and I was surprised by
the one-sidedness of the first game of every series (except Boston/New York, I
predicted the Rangers would still win in seven. Oh well.). Almost immediately after
I posted the article, things started to turn completely. The Senators prevailed
in overtime, the Red Wings took a 3-1 lead on the Kings, the Sharks won two in
a row and Boston took a 3-0 series lead. But I didn’t write another piece
declaring how wrong I was. I waited it out. Lesson learned: don’t overreact to
one game.
Not overreacting won’t be nearly as important when
previewing the conference finals matchups. Both Boston and Pittsburgh easily dispatched
of very good teams in the second round so I guess the theoretical overreactions
cancelled each other out. The same goes for the negative reaction in the
Western Conference Finals. Chicago and LA were the two top possession teams in
the NHL this
year but both looked vulnerable in the second round. Of course this doesn’t
matter nearly as much as the average fan thinks it does but it’s admittedly difficult
to avoid getting caught up in. Luckily, both Western series stretched to seven
games so no overreaction is warranted.
Since that that’s out of the way, attention can be shifted
to more important aspects of the second round of the playoffs. Ya know…like how
this is the best conference finals slate in recent memory? Since the last
lockout, the NHL playoffs have been entertaining and ridiculous in the first
two rounds; riddled with passion, upsets, excitements and ridiculousness. That’s
only fun until you get to the final four and …yikes; who the hell are these teams?
Teams struggled to consistently advance in the playoffs and thus the casual fan
struggled to identify teams and players to like and hate. Teams had no discernible
personality or reputation because of the constantly-changing nature of the
playoffs. Some fans craved the changes lest they become “bored.” (I’ve never
understood why watching two mediocre teams overachieving was less boring than
watching established powerhouses duke it out.) But because of this trend, we’ve
been treated to some pretty awful final four slates and less-than-exhilarating
Stanley Cups. At different points we saw Philly and Montreal take each other on
as seven and eight seeds, Tampa freakin Bay make a conference final, Mike
freakin Smith carry the Coyotes to an appearance, the Devils run to the Cup on
the strength of being somewhat above-average and even a quartet of Buffalo,
Anaheim, Carolina and Edmonton. Enthralling stuff.
But none of that matters this year. By any advanced or
traditional statistical measurement, these are four of the best teams in the
NHL. And, possibly more importantly, these are the winners of the last four
Stanley Cups. We know these guys, we’ve seen them before. They are star-laden,
they’re well-coached, some are physical, and some are finesse. We know this
because we know these teams. We know how to criticize them and we know how to
praise them. It’s been so long since this could be said about all four
conference finalists that I don’t think I can imagine a comparison.
With that being said, two of these teams will be sent home
after this round. They will not receive special trophies for giving the NHL a
respectable conference final (but they should.) So what will it take for each
team to defeat an extraordinary foe?
Image courtesy of crimespreehockey.com
Eastern
Finals:
Boston
will win if: Let’s make it clear here; Boston isn’t totally
an underdog here and a series win wouldn’t be too much of an upset. The Bruins
have been a better possession team (fourth in the NHL) than Pittsburgh (15th)
in the regular season and the playoffs. Of course, the Bruins aren’t as
offensively talented as the Penguins and struggle to find their scoring touch
at times (perhaps their most offensively talented player, Tyler Seguin has one
goal in the playoffs). If the Bruins
win, it will be because Tuuka Rask continued his extraordinary effort in net,
Zdeno Chara was able to neutralize Sidney Crosby and Patrice Bergeron played up
to his Selke-style reputation. It also wouldn’t hurt if Torey Krug and David
Krejci continued to channel Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito.
Pittsburgh
will win if: The Penguins essentially need to play exactly
how they did against Ottawa (save for a few defensive lapses) and accept that
it won’t produce the same results against Tuuka Rask and Boston’s D. Crosby’s
production won’t be a worry but they’ll need Letang and Malkin to continue to
manufacture opportunities as they’ve done so beautifully so far in the
post-season (25 assists between them in 11 games).
The other major
factor for Pittsburgh will be goaltending. If Coach Bylsma is dumb enough to
put Marc-Andre Fleury back in net, the Penguins will be swept. But if Vokoun
plays and performs the way he has so far (14 goals allowed in seven games), the
Penguins will be a tough out.
Prediction:
Bergeron, Chara and Rask need to be completely on top of their games at all
times for the Bruins to win. Pittsburgh has proven in the past seven games (30
goals) that they’re fully capable of making their opponents pay for the
slightest mistakes. Luckily for Boston, those three guys are about as lock-down
as it gets. Look for Boston to make Pittsburgh earn every goal. Pens in seven.
Image courtesy of committedIndians.com
Western
Finals:
LA will
win if: For the Kings to win, they’ll likely need the Jeff Carter
and Anze Kopitar types to shoot well throughout the series. Pretty oddly
specific point to start with, right? Well, not really. According to HockeyProspectus, the Kings have taken the least shots at the net
and have among the worst possession of all teams so far this postseason.
Perhaps this is why they’re averaging only two goals per game this postseason.
You can talk about Brian Elliot and Annti Niemi all you want but less
possession means less shots and less shots means less goals. It’s really that
simple.
The key on the other end will be for Jonathan Quick and the
defense to shut down the dangerous Chicago rush much like they did to San Jose
and St. Louis. The problem: Chicago is not St. Louis or San Jose. They’re a
very good passing and shooting team; they’re as dangerous on rushes as anyone.
On the bright side for LA, Detroit was quite effective in limiting Chicago’s
ability to create space and find open shots. The Kings would be wise to study
film of that series to emulate the Wings.
Chicago
will win if: The Kings will stand almost no chance against
the Blackhawks if they dominate possession the way they did at times against
Detroit (games one and five). However, the Hawks did not dominate like that
most of the series and the Kings are a better team than the Wings. Another concern
for Chicago has been the play of their “best” players. Captain Jonathan Toews
has been totally failed to produce and Pat Kane, although he has nine points in
12 games, has a tendency to totally disappear at times. On a positive note,
their league-best defense shouldn’t have much trouble shutting down what’s been
an underwhelming LA attack.
The X-factor for Chicago may be goalie Corey Crawford.
Crawford has put up very good numbers all season and has continued to do so
into the postseason. But shouldn’t the Chicago faithful be slightly worried
about Crawford? He wasn’t totally impressive either of the last two seasons and
he could very likely be a product of improved defensive play this season. As
his 1.70 goals against average would indicate, he hasn’t been much of a concern
for Chicago so far. But a few more goals like the game seven one against
Detroit and those concern levels will rise.
Prediction:
On
paper, Chicago seems to have the advantage but don’t expect the Kings to go
quietly into the night. They fought back from down 2-0 against the Blues and
they scored two goals late in game two to defeat the Sharks which eventually
swung the series. The Kings are tough, resilient and are capable of scoring
timely goals. But they’re offense is too much of a concern going up against
this Chicago powerhouse. Blackhawks in seven.
Stay hungry, my friends.
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