MLB in Review: Central Powers Edition

Image courtesy of ChicagoNow.com

This week’s MLB in Review is heavily focused on teams from the Central divisions. Both divisions have multiple teams duking out for the top spot (one division has the obvious talent edge). I realized a few things in researching these teams. First, “Central” is a pretty loose title for both divisions. It doesn’t feel like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Cincinnati totally deserve that moniker. Secondly, I realized this would be an excellent opportunity for a Memorial Day pun. With further ado, here’s the MLB in Review: Central Powers Edition. 

(I should note I’m saving Cleveland for next week for sample size purposes.)

All stats are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. 

Motown Meanies: The Detroit Tigers can pitch. That’s why they were preseason World Series favorites and, as of Monday, are tied with St. Louis for the best run differential in baseball. Right? Well, not exactly. The Tigers haven’t pitched poorly so far, (they’re ninth in the MLB in runs allowed) but it’s been the offense that has carried this team so far.

The Tigers are first in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. Eight of their nine most used players have an OBP of .325 or higher. No one has been more responsible for this offensive revolution than Miguel Cabrera. The reigning MVP has a batting line of .379/.454/.667 with 14 home runs and a 3.5 wins above replacement. So is this type of production-for Cabrera and the Tigers-sustainable? Most likely not. Cabrera’s BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is a sky-high .394. This means his numbers will likely fall to normal MVP-type levels. Other hitters, such as the ageless Torii Hunter, have unsustainably-high peripheral numbers and should a see a decline in their current pace. However, there is at least one Tiger hitter who should see an uptick in production. Prince Fielder has an abnormally low .300 BABIP and is batting only .270.

The good news for the Tigers is there is room for improvement on the pitching front. Anibal Sanchez is putting up very good numbers despite a 5-4 record. Max Scherzer is 7-0 but his peripheral stats point to possible improvement. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 2.39 indicates his ERA of 3.42 should be lower. Some of this discrepancy is due to a poor defensive infield for Detroit. However both Scherzer and Verlander (3.36 ERA, 2.26 FIP) will see improvement soon. The question for Detroit will be whether this improvement will be enough to counteract possible regression on the hitting front.   

NL Central: Another year, another MLB season of the NL Central being the best division in baseball as May turns into June…wait, what??!! By win percentage, the Central has the three best teams in the NL and the first, third and fifth best teams in the MLB in the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates, respectively. Of course the Pirates haven’t had a winning season since the Bush administration but that has no bearing on this year’s team. That being said, the Bucs have the weakest of the three teams. They rely too heavily on their pitching staff which will rely heavily on the continued revivals of AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano, along with Jeff Locke and his almost certain regression (nearly a two point difference between his ERA and FIP). The lineup is led by superstar Andrew McCutchen and emerging star Starling Marte. Pedro Alvarez has been all power, nothing else as per usual while Neil Walker, Garrett Jones and Russell Martin have been slightly above average. Beyond that they the Pirates have almost nothing. The Pirates won’t have the pitching or hitting depth to compete with Cincinnati or St. Louis. However, they do have a chance to compete for the second Wild Card spot and will most likely break the elusive .500 barrier.

The Reds might be the most interesting team in this race. They pitch and hit at an elite level (top five in runs scored and allowed), they have the game’s best player (Joey Votto), scariest flamethrower (Aroldis Chapman), the most unlikely career year (Shin-Soo Choo)and most importantly, they just got ace Johnny Cueto back from the DL. They’re now loaded top to bottom pitching wise with the formidable five-some of Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake with a quality bullpen to boot. The offense, which should eventually feature a Todd Frazier bounce-back, is nearly equally dangerous. With an unhittable staff, quality bullpen and the World’s best hitter, these Reds are loaded up for a World Series run. But are they even good enough to win their own division?

A Sports Illustrated feature on the Cardinals this week profiled the incredible pitching legacy former coach Dave Duncan left with the Cardinals. The Red Birds seem to always have a quality staff despite injuries, aging and free-agent departures. As the article states, this may be the best pitching staff they’ve had yet. Three of their regular starters have an ERA under three while fourth man Jaime Garcia is pulling up the rear with a 3.58 (what a bum!). They may even get Jake Westbrook back from injury eventually. But even if they don’t, that foursome is good enough to heat a small country. The best on the staff so far has unquestionably been Shelby Miller. The 22-year old is only 5-3 but has an ERA of 2.02, a WHIP of .98 and strikeouts per nine innings of 9.39. He’s a candidate for Rookie of the year as well as the Cy Young.

The Cardinal offense is nothing to sneeze at either. Perhaps you’ve never heard of Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, Pete Kozma and Jon Jay. They’re four position players between the ages of 25-28 who, combined make less than one-third of what Albert Pujols does. None of these players are spectacular but all have a higher on-base percentage and offensive WAR than Pujols. Together they’ve made up for that was lost when Pujols bolted for Los Angeles.( Matt Holiday and Carlos Beltran have been pretty good too. Oh and Yadier Molina is a legitimate MVP candidate.)

This is shaping up to be quite the divisional race. While the Cards have the upper hand at the moment, the Pirates and Reds are both good enough to go on a run and win the division. We may be in for a one-game playoff between two of these teams as the wild card play-in. Hooray for the Mid-West (kinda).

 Performance of the week: The aforementioned Anibal Sanchez threw a gem Friday night. He took a no-hitter into the ninth before losing it on a Joe Mauer single up the middle. All in all, Sanchez threw a complete game shutout while allowing only one hit and three walks and struck out 12.

Game to watch: New York Mets vs. the New York Yankees Tuesday at 7 on ESPN.

If he’s cleared to pitch, Hiroki Kuroda will take on crosstown rival ace, Matt Harvey in duel that will help decide who the best pitcher in New York is (for 2013, at least).

Stay hungry, my friends.