Pacers vs Heat: Eastern Conference Finals Preview

                             (Image courtesy of ESPN.com)

Eastern Conference Finals

Miami Heat (1) vs Indiana Pacers (3)

On the surface this series should be an easy prediction, and in many ways it will be.  The Miami Heat are without question a superior to the Pacers and proved so by winning 66 games in comparison to the Pacers 49.  The thing is that the Pacer’s strengths seem to matchup quite well with the Heat’s weaknesses, thus the Pacer’s 2-1 record against the Heat this season. 

When the Pacers have the ball

The Pacers are by no means a great offensive team, they ranked 20^th in the league during the regular season and in the playoffs have scored at approximately the same rate.  This team turns the ball over too frequently and has an eFG% that ranks 22^nd in the league.  However what their offensive thrives on is offensive rebounds, the team ranked 4^th in the league in offensive rebound % during the regular season and ranks first in the post season thus far.  The Heat’s major weakness defensively is that they rank 24^th in the league in Defensive Rebound %, not surprising for a team that is constantly playing small.  The Pacer’s will have to decrease their turnovers if they want any hope in this series.  As great as Roy Hibbert and David West are bound to play with their size advantage, the Heat are going to be trying to force plenty of turnovers against this squad.  Paul George a rising star is going to have to take care of the ball if the Pacers have any hope in this series.  Actually on this side of the floor the most interesting decision will be how the Heat decide to guard David West.  The Pacer’s showed against the Knicks last series and against the Heat in the regular season that they are not afraid of small ball lineups and will put West in the post to punish whoever is guarding him.  The decision for the Heat is when they play small, which will likely be much of the series, who guards him Lebron or Battier.  While Lebron size wise is more up to the challenge, and he has proven himself to be a capable post defender, but will Spoelstra want to risk wearing Lebron down, especially knowing they might to play an equally physical Memphis team in the next round.  My guess is that they even if Lebron is able to guard him more effectively, Spoelstra trusts Battier to hold his own, wanting to save him some energy and allowing him to matchup against Paul George. 

When the Heat have the ball

This is really where the series is going to be interesting.  How will the Pacer’s elite defense matchup with the Heat’s elite offense?  The Heat’s strengths as a team are Lebron and Wade’s penetration into the middle, Bosh’s elite mid-range game and their array of 3 point shooters manning the perimeter.  The Pacer’s defense relies on Hibbert shutting down the paint and playing the best defense against the 3 in the league.  Basically the Pacers are going to try to take away what the Heat does best and force them into the mid-range game.  Throughout two rounds the Pacers have definitely done this, quite impressively against the New York Knicks another one of the NBA’s elite 3 point shooting teams.   The Pacers starting lineup featuring George Hill, Lance Stephenson and Paul George is probably the best perimeter backcourt with regards to defense in the NBA.  If any team has hope of containing Lebron James and the seemingly always injured Dwayne Wade it is this one.  This leads me to the key player for this series, Chris Bosh.  The 3^rd and least talked about star of the Big 3 who seems to be nothing more than a jump shooter at times is going to play a critical role in this series.  First of all Chris Bosh is one of the best mid-range shooters in the league and if any defense plans on conceding him that shot then they are destined for failure.  If they don’t plan on leaving him that shot then in the Miami Heat’s small ball lineups that leaves Hibbert guarding Bosh.  If Bosh is consistently making that shot then that means Hibbert has to leave the paint to contest it, making it easier for the Heat to penetrate and score in the paint. 

Prediction

Overall this is definitely going to be another fun matchup to watch between two teams that know each other well.  The Pacers elite defense is going to be tested to the limit against this great offense.  The coaching battle should be fascinating as to whether either teams breaks from its gameplan.  Basically whether Indiana will go small, Frank Vogel claims not, or whether Miami will break away from its small ball lineups.  Both benches will be tested, especially Indiana’s a team that seems to always struggle if it has to rely on its bench.  Overall I’m looking forward to this series, but I think Chris Bosh comes up big for the most part and the Heat win in 6.

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