Grizzlies vs Spurs: Western Conference Finals Preview

                                           (Image courtesy of mySanAntonio.com)

Western Conference Finals

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs Memphis Grizzlies (4)

Well if you love defense is this the matchup for you!  In this series between the NBA’s 2^nd and 3^rd best defenses there are going to be a few key matchups that dictate who wins the series, a rematch of the first round from two years ago. 

Guards/Wings

Mike Conley has probably been the most underrated players in the NBA all season and he is really coming into his own this postseason.  While he hasn’t shot particularly well he has improved his PER by getting to the free throw line more, assisting on more baskets and turning the ball over less.  He is also one of the best defensive guards in the league, he has more steals than even the great Tony Allen and the elite defense definitely falls when he’s no there.  The Grizzlies also have the world’s hungriest dog in Tony Allen who can shut down almost any player at this point and will definitely be unleashed on the likes of Manu Ginobili.  The Grizzlies then have the combination of Prince, Bayless and Pondexter providing floor spacing when those at those positions.  The Spurs will be throwing out their MVP candidate point guard in Tony Parker who will surely be guarded by Mike Conley and Tony Allen at all times.  Off the bench they will be able to throw out the ever dangerous Manu Ginobili who provides his unique style and will likely be facing the wrath of Mr. Allen all series long.  Then there is sharpshooter Gary Neal along with starters Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard who look to provide defense and floor spacing in their own right.  If the Spurs are going to win this series they are going to have to dominant with their guards and wings.  The reason the Spurs might be able to gain an edge in this series is that the Grizzlies have something that the Warriors didn’t, a “hider”, or a place to effectively hide Tony Parker on defense.  Parker can guard the likes of Tony Allen, Bayless and Pondexter without be punished too severely, where he was when facing the Warriors.  None of those players are developed enough offensively where the Spurs wouldn’t feel comfortable with Parker guarding them.  This could even produce increased minutes for Gary Neal as well as the Spurs try to increase their offensive proficiency.  The Grizzlies defense is without question going to be excellent but if the Spurs defense, which will likely put Danny Green on Mike Conley can really limit the Grizzlies offense then it might not matter.  The Spurs would have the ability to play lineups that could provide some interesting decisions for the Grizzlies coaches.  The other issue though is if Conley and Allen take Parker and Ginobili out of their games what choices can the Spurs make to get their offense back running?

Bigs

Well this should be good, the Grizzlies formidable front line of Gasol and Randolph against Tim Duncan and whoever Popovich decides to put next to him.  This has been the Grizzlies greatest strength all season and it’s a strength that has only improved in the post season.  While Marc Gasol has been his normal point-Center self offensively and defense of the year self on the other end of the floor, Randolph has really picked up his game.  This postseason, he’s shooting more, shooting more efficiently and getting to the free throw line more and has been the main reason for the Grizzlies’ improved offensive play this post season.  How the Spurs treat him is going to be the most interesting decision of the series and maybe of the post season thus far.  Do the Spurs decide to keep their traditional big lineups in with a seemingly healthy Tiago Splitter, do they go small with Leonard for extended periods of time and if so how much do they trust him guarding the likes of Zach Randolph, or do they extend Boris Diaw’s minutes.  This is the main question because in all likelihood, Gasol and Duncan, arguably the NBA’s 2 best centers play each other to a draw this series.  Leonard is probably the key player in this entire series because he is likely going to be asked to guard every player from Mike Conley to Zach Randolph.  If he can hold his own against Randolph though it would allow the Spurs to go small and thus a more dynamic offensive attack.  If not then Splitter is going to have to play great defense and be the big and roll threat he was this entire season.  If Randolph continues his dominant play though it could be extremely difficult for the Spurs to win this series, they become a very good offense with him playing well and that combined with their defense prowess is almost unstoppable. 

                Overall this series is really going to be awesome to watch.  Based on how these two teams have been playing recently and the series from two years ago it would seem the Grizzlies have the slight edge, but I think the Spurs have enough going in their favor to pull it out.  This series is clearly about matchups and putting your players in the best possible position to succeed.  Thus I’m thinking the Spurs can get the slight edge there by having a better coach in Popovich who might be able to find some slight matchups edges to exploit.  I think Randolph’s great play will cool down a bit especially if he’s facing another physical defender like Splitter, something he hasn’t had to deal with this postseason.  Overall this series is practically a tossup though and there is result that would surprise me.  That being said however, Spurs in 7.

Stay Hungry My Friends