MLB in Review: Boston Strong and Others Weak

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This has been quite an unusual week in the MLB. It saw the Padres and Blue Jays play into the 17^th inning, the Mets sweep the Yankees in a four-game series and promptly get swept by the lowly Marlins and I personally sat through two separate rain delays Friday night at Progressive Field before the second inning started at 12:10 a.m. Suffice it to say it was a strange week.

This strangeness continues into the standings. The imminent failures of the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Angels could have been readily seen by anyone who was paying close enough attention. But teams like the Giants and Nationals were supposed to be impervious to struggles. Not that either team has been terrible (Nats are 28-29, Giants are 30-27) but both are causing some concern as we’re more than one-third of the way through the season.

Meanwhile the Red Sox have defied their expectations and are leading the mighty AL East. So how much of this is early season luck and is any of this sustainable? Let’s look at the numbers.

Boston 35-23 +66 run differential

As insane as it sounds, especially considering everything they’ve been through in the past 18 months, it might be time to start taking the Red Sox seriously as a contender. Their recipe for success has been pretty simple: their best players are playing to their capabilities. After a pedestrian 2012, Dustin Pedroia is back to his previous MVP-caliber level of play. He’s hitting .333/.415/.444 with eight steals and excellent defensive numbers (seventh in defensive WAR). Meanwhile, David Ortiz continues to put up incredible numbers as he moves further into his 30’s. Big Papi is batting .333/.405/.618 with 10 home runs in only 39 games. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a tad high at .328, but he’s putting together a fantastic season nonetheless.

The Sox have continued to win and score at a league best rate even through injuries to some lineup mainstays. Luckily for them, Shane Victorino, Wil Middlebrooks and Jacoby Ellsbury weren’t as crucial to the success of the offense as Ortiz, Pedroia or even Daniel Nava.

While the offense is an improvement on last year’s slightly underrated unit, the pitching staff has done a total 180. I discussed the improvement of Buchholz and Lester a few weeks ago. Buchholz (8-0, 1.62 ERA) has carried his undefeated season into June and Lester has come back to Earth but is still putting up very good numbers (6-2, 3.53 ERA). Beyond that duo, the Red Sox employ a fairly decent back-end of the rotation. Ryan Dempster has been better than his 2-6 record would indicate (4.45 ERA, 3.84 xFIP). John Lackey has been more than solid since returning from the DL and has now lowered his ERA all the way to 2.96. Lastly, Felix Doubront is continuing to recover from a rough start to put a pretty decent numbers. In the past four starts, he’s lowed his ERA nearly two full runs; he’s now down to 4.88.

Verdict: The Red Sox are for sure contenders. They have an explosive offense led by one of the league’s best all-around players. The pitching staff has continued to improve all season and appears to be enough to push them into the postseason.

San Francisco 30-27 -14 run differential

Not terrible, but not exactly what you’d expect from the defending champions. Oddly enough, they’ve done pretty well on offense but have struggled mightily pitching. And that “pretty well” has landed them as only the 14^th most productive offense in the MLB. Even worse: this appears to be their absolute potential. Sure, Buster Posey (.308/.391/.514) might be capable of a little bit more but most of the top performers are exceeding expectation and may be due for regression. It seems Marco Scutaro will be one of these guys. The 37-year-old is hitting .329/.380/.429 on the season with only 14 strikeouts in 210 at bats. But Scutaro’s .347 BABIP seems to indicate he’s headed for a second-half slide. The same goes for revelation Brandon Crawford (.291/.353/.447, .331 BABIP). Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and the rest of the offense should be good enough to maintain a league-average output. It’s the pitching staff that’s really troubling the Giants.

Just a year after riding their pitching staff to a World Series win, the Giants are 24^th in runs allowed. And there are no apparent answers. Tim Lincecum is continuing to impersonate the Dontrelle Willis career arc, Ryan Vogelsong has been nothing short of pathetic (7.19 ERA), Matt Cain has been inexplicably terrible (5.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and most puzzling of all; Barry Zito has been the squad’s most reliable pitcher (Bumgarner has also been solid as usual).  There are no quick fixes here; advanced stats indicate nothing about positive regression (besides Vogelsong possibly slightly improving on that hideous ERA).

Verdict: San Francisco missed the playoffs in 2011 after winning it all in 2010. It seems to be a common theme for teams named the Giants (see: New York). Look for history to repeat itself if Cain can’t put an end to his struggles.

Washington 28-29 -26 run differential

Well, this is strange. The Nats were World Series favorites coming off a season that saw them post the best record in baseball. This year they’re average at pitching (10^th in runs allowed), terrible at hitting (27^th in runs scored) and barely winning.

The pitching staff, which many thought would be the best in the league, hasn’t been terrible by any stretch but has failed to meet expectation. On top of that, phenom Steven Strasburg may be injured after throwing only 37 pitches Friday (I guess the limited pitch load can’t cure all ills). Strasburg has been very good this year (2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) as has Jordan Zimmerman (2.47 ERA albeit with only 47 strikeouts). The trouble lies beyond the top two (provided that Strasburg doesn’t have a long-term injury). Gio Gonzalez has not been nearly at his 2012 Cy Young caliber level (3.64 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) while Dan Haren has been a total disaster (5.09 ERA). Hell, this back-end is such a mess, Zach Duke even started a game. Yes, that Zach Duke. The Nationals need Strasburg to make a quick recovery and Gonzalez to regain his 2012 form because this pitching staff cannot simply be average. They need to be good enough to carry the offense into the playoffs.

Train wreck. Disaster. Enough to drive a manager crazy. All these phrases accurately portray the current state of the Nationals offense. Bryce Harper hit under .200 in May and is now headed to the DL with knee injury. Jayson Werth is still working through rehab but hasn’t been all that productive in the Majors anyway. Ryan Zimmerman is putting together a respectable season (.280/ .360/.452) but isn’t quite “best player in a lineup” material. Beyond him, Ian Desmond, Adam LaRoche and Denard Span have all disappointed by having totally average campaigns thus far. None of the three have an on-base percentage above .329 and aside from LaRoche’s 10 home runs, the lineup will struggle looking for power in Harper’s absence. Oh, and those three guys are now the second, third or fourth best players in Washington’s offense. The Nationals will need to look to either Triple-A or elsewhere in the majors for hitting help.

Verdict: Unless Gonzalez can find his touch from 2012, this is a lost season for the Nationals. They’re lineup is simply atrocious.

That’s it for this week. Stay hungry, my friends.