MLB in Review: Who's Your Padre?

Image Courtesy of Kaybee.mlblogs.com

So far June has been anything but your typical month in the MLB. The Yankees offense has become about as lethal as a plastic spoon, a San Diego surge has created a three-game difference between four teams in the NL West, some of the game’s best hitters are guys we’ve never heard of, a preposterous amount of “franchise-altering” prospects have made their debuts and the Miami Marlins have won six of their last nine games.

So, how do we make sense of this seemingly-endless barrage of stories, news and new guys?

This week’s MLB in Review, of course! 

Stats courtesy of ESPN, Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. 

San Diego: Which, of course, in German means: So, as I mentioned above, the NL West is basically a giant, wild mess right now. And it’s tough to see that changing anytime soon considering the team with the highest upside, San Francisco, is currently in fourth place and has inexplicably forgotten how to pitch. Obviously it’s been surprising to see the Giants struggle  so much just as it’s a mild shock to see the Rockies still in contention. Some may even be surprised the Dodgers have been so bad (but they shouldn't be).

However, nothing has been more out-of-nowhere than the San Diego Padres being above .500 in mid-June and contending for the division lead. Perhaps this is because the Padres are the least-relevant franchise in baseball. Despite this being their 45^th year of existence, they’ve never thrown a no-hitter, reached the playoffs only five times and were walloped in two quite unmemorable World Series. They don’t attract any free agents and are seemingly always forced to eventually give up their homegrown talent (think Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy). Aside from Tony Gwynn and Ken Caminiti, they have employed very few memorable players.

This year things were beginning to change for San Diego. They employed some genuinely exciting young players; shortstop Everth Cabrera (.305/.382/.414), second baseman Jedd Gyorko (.284/.341/.461) and first baseman Yonder Alonso (.284/.335/.416)  were all having breakout seasons. All are 24-26 years old, all looked poised to create an “infield of the future” with last year’s breakout star, Chase Headley and all three were injured last week.

Since then the Padres have won eight of 10 on the strength of other anonymous, young players. Will Venable (of this catch), Chris Denofria (.271/.329/.373) and some dude named Logan Forsythe have all given San Diego far more than they anticipated on offense. Even Carlos Quentin and Mark Kotsay have contributed (so that’s where they've been…)!

Current winning streak aside, the Padres have a pretty mediocre offense (16^th in runs scored) and their pitching hasn't fared much better. They appear to be a mediocre team plagued by injury. But if they can keep holding steady while Cabrera, Alonso and Gyorko are out, they could compete in this totally average NL West. 

Milwaukee’s Best: It would appear the Brewers are headed for their 29^th playoff-free season in the past 31 years. Their pitching has been a nightmare. Kyle Lohse hasn’t been the bargain they expected and Yovani Gallardo is sporting a very un-ace like 4.41 ERA. The offense hasn’t been much better. Ryan Braun has landed on the DL, Rickie Weeks has six home runs with a .217 batting average and Yuniesky Betancourt has somehow been worth a full win less than a replacement-level player.

However, two players who have not disappointed have been Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez.

Gomez (.317/.356/.587) is currently second in the MLB in wins above replace at 4.4. He’s fast (13 stolen bases, eight triples), he has power (12 home runs) and defensive range (1.9 defensive WAR). His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .370 indicates he should see a slight drop-off in production but nothing too serious considering he’s a speedster and will get on base more than the average bear.

Segura is hitting .330/.365/.518 with 22 stolen bases and 10 home runs. Neither Segura, nor Gomez made much noise at the major league level before this season. Gomez was signed by the Mets as an amateur and stayed with the organization until he was shipped to Minnesota in the Johan Santana deal. He was later traded straight-up to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. Segura was the Brewers prize for a half-season of Zach Greinke. Both have been absolute steals for the Brewers so far. Provided Jon Lucroy continues to improve offensively and Ryan Braun isn't banned from baseball, this could be a formidable quartet for the next few years. 

Too Little, Too Late Toronto:

The Toronto Blue Jays have won eight straight and are 25-15 in their last 40 games. This is the team everyone expected when they took on half the Miami roster this winter. But are the Blue Jays this good or is this just a hot streak? Is it possible this group could be playoff contenders this year or in the future?

Quite simply; no. Even after winning 25 of 40, the Jays are last in the AL East and ninth overall in the American League. At some point, this streak will come to an end. In fact, it may be sooner than you think. The Jays next 14 games will come against Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Boston and Detroit. Even if they survive that stretch, the Blue Jays will have a long way to go if they hope to play into October. Last year it took 93 wins to earn a wild card spot in the American League. To achieve that total, Toronto would have to be 58-33 for the rest of the season. Do the Blue Jays have the talent capable of doing that?

Quite simply, the Blue Jays aren’t good enough to make the playoffs. It’s been said that they’ve suffered from injury losses all year. Well, if you build a team filled with old and injury-prone players, you will suffer from injury losses.

Brett Lawrie is hurt and missing significant time for the second year in a row, Jose Reyes is doing the same for the fourth time in five years, Josh Johnson has, predictably, missed time, and R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle have pitched like guys in their mid to late 30’s. The team is currently relying on Adam Lind (.340/.406/.565) and Edwin Encarnacion (19 HR, .877 OPS) playing way over their capabilities and Chien-Ming Wang to pitch in general. This is not a playoff team. It’s not even an above-average team. The Blue Jays will miss the playoffs for the 20^th year in a row. 

Prospect Watch

June 2013: the month of the prospect. Yaisel Puig, Wil Myers, Mike Zunino and Zach Wheeler are made their debuts for their respective teams this month. Someday in the future we’ll look back at this month and we’ll remember a time when these guys were nothing more than reasons for hope.

Hot and Not So Hot

Mike Trout appeared to be having a bit of a sophomore slump to start 2013. After hitting only .252/.322/.402 in April, Trout has been red-hot in May and June. He’s run his numbers to .317/.395/.556 with 12 home runs and 16 steals. He’s third in the MLB in extra-base hits with 40 and second in offensive WAR at 4.2. All this and the outfielder from New Jersey is still only 21 years old.

Vernon Wells has essentially had the complete opposite experience of Trout in 2013. After shocking everyone by hitting .309/.374/.580 through 20 games, Wells has, um, struggled in the past month and a half. He’s been on base only seven times so far in June and is hitting .102/.115/.102 for the month. It’s no stretch to say this is the Wells I was expecting when the Yankees traded for him.  

Stay hungry, my friends