NHL Conference Final Mega Preview

Image courtesy of Bleacherreport.com

Only a few days after posting my divisional round preview, I posted another piece critiquing my first round picks. Essentially I was overreacting to the early stages of the series. I had picked all four series to go either six or seven games and I was surprised by the one-sidedness of the first game of every series (except Boston/New York, I predicted the Rangers would still win in seven. Oh well.). Almost immediately after I posted the article, things started to turn completely. The Senators prevailed in overtime, the Red Wings took a 3-1 lead on the Kings, the Sharks won two in a row and Boston took a 3-0 series lead. But I didn’t write another piece declaring how wrong I was. I waited it out. Lesson learned: don’t overreact to one game.

Not overreacting won’t be nearly as important when previewing the conference finals matchups. Both Boston and Pittsburgh easily dispatched of very good teams in the second round so I guess the theoretical overreactions cancelled each other out. The same goes for the negative reaction in the Western Conference Finals. Chicago and LA were the two top possession teams in the NHL this year but both looked vulnerable in the second round. Of course this doesn’t matter nearly as much as the average fan thinks it does but it’s admittedly difficult to avoid getting caught up in. Luckily, both Western series stretched to seven games so no overreaction is warranted.

Since that that’s out of the way, attention can be shifted to more important aspects of the second round of the playoffs. Ya know…like how this is the best conference finals slate in recent memory? Since the last lockout, the NHL playoffs have been entertaining and ridiculous in the first two rounds; riddled with passion, upsets, excitements and ridiculousness. That’s only fun until you get to the final four and …yikes; who the hell are these teams? Teams struggled to consistently advance in the playoffs and thus the casual fan struggled to identify teams and players to like and hate. Teams had no discernible personality or reputation because of the constantly-changing nature of the playoffs. Some fans craved the changes lest they become “bored.” (I’ve never understood why watching two mediocre teams overachieving was less boring than watching established powerhouses duke it out.) But because of this trend, we’ve been treated to some pretty awful final four slates and less-than-exhilarating Stanley Cups. At different points we saw Philly and Montreal take each other on as seven and eight seeds, Tampa freakin Bay make a conference final, Mike freakin Smith carry the Coyotes to an appearance, the Devils run to the Cup on the strength of being somewhat above-average and even a quartet of Buffalo, Anaheim, Carolina and Edmonton. Enthralling stuff.

But none of that matters this year. By any advanced or traditional statistical measurement, these are four of the best teams in the NHL. And, possibly more importantly, these are the winners of the last four Stanley Cups. We know these guys, we’ve seen them before. They are star-laden, they’re well-coached, some are physical, and some are finesse. We know this because we know these teams. We know how to criticize them and we know how to praise them. It’s been so long since this could be said about all four conference finalists that I don’t think I can imagine a comparison.

With that being said, two of these teams will be sent home after this round. They will not receive special trophies for giving the NHL a respectable conference final (but they should.) So what will it take for each team to defeat an extraordinary foe?

Image courtesy of crimespreehockey.com

Eastern Finals:

Boston will win if: Let’s make it clear here; Boston isn’t totally an underdog here and a series win wouldn’t be too much of an upset. The Bruins have been a better possession team (fourth in the NHL) than Pittsburgh (15^th) in the regular season and the playoffs. Of course, the Bruins aren’t as offensively talented as the Penguins and struggle to find their scoring touch at times (perhaps their most offensively talented player, Tyler Seguin has one goal in the playoffs).  If the Bruins win, it will be because Tuuka Rask continued his extraordinary effort in net, Zdeno Chara was able to neutralize Sidney Crosby and Patrice Bergeron played up to his Selke-style reputation. It also wouldn’t hurt if Torey Krug and David Krejci continued to channel Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito.

Pittsburgh will win if: The Penguins essentially need to play exactly how they did against Ottawa (save for a few defensive lapses) and accept that it won’t produce the same results against Tuuka Rask and Boston’s D. Crosby’s production won’t be a worry but they’ll need Letang and Malkin to continue to manufacture opportunities as they’ve done so beautifully so far in the post-season (25 assists between them in 11 games).

 The other major factor for Pittsburgh will be goaltending. If Coach Bylsma is dumb enough to put Marc-Andre Fleury back in net, the Penguins will be swept. But if Vokoun plays and performs the way he has so far (14 goals allowed in seven games), the Penguins will be a tough out.

Prediction: Bergeron, Chara and Rask need to be completely on top of their games at all times for the Bruins to win. Pittsburgh has proven in the past seven games (30 goals) that they’re fully capable of making their opponents pay for the slightest mistakes. Luckily for Boston, those three guys are about as lock-down as it gets. Look for Boston to make Pittsburgh earn every goal. Pens in seven.

Image courtesy of committedIndians.com

Western Finals:

LA will win if: For the Kings to win, they’ll likely need the Jeff Carter and Anze Kopitar types to shoot well throughout the series. Pretty oddly specific point to start with, right? Well, not really. According to HockeyProspectus, the Kings have taken the least shots at the net and have among the worst possession of all teams so far this postseason. Perhaps this is why they’re averaging only two goals per game this postseason. You can talk about Brian Elliot and Annti Niemi all you want but less possession means less shots and less shots means less goals. It’s really that simple.

The key on the other end will be for Jonathan Quick and the defense to shut down the dangerous Chicago rush much like they did to San Jose and St. Louis. The problem: Chicago is not St. Louis or San Jose. They’re a very good passing and shooting team; they’re as dangerous on rushes as anyone. On the bright side for LA, Detroit was quite effective in limiting Chicago’s ability to create space and find open shots. The Kings would be wise to study film of that series to emulate the Wings.

Chicago will win if: The Kings will stand almost no chance against the Blackhawks if they dominate possession the way they did at times against Detroit (games one and five). However, the Hawks did not dominate like that most of the series and the Kings are a better team than the Wings. Another concern for Chicago has been the play of their “best” players. Captain Jonathan Toews has been totally failed to produce and Pat Kane, although he has nine points in 12 games, has a tendency to totally disappear at times. On a positive note, their league-best defense shouldn’t have much trouble shutting down what’s been an underwhelming LA attack.

The X-factor for Chicago may be goalie Corey Crawford. Crawford has put up very good numbers all season and has continued to do so into the postseason. But shouldn’t the Chicago faithful be slightly worried about Crawford? He wasn’t totally impressive either of the last two seasons and he could very likely be a product of improved defensive play this season. As his 1.70 goals against average would indicate, he hasn’t been much of a concern for Chicago so far. But a few more goals like the game seven one against Detroit and those concern levels will rise.

Prediction: On paper, Chicago seems to have the advantage but don’t expect the Kings to go quietly into the night. They fought back from down 2-0 against the Blues and they scored two goals late in game two to defeat the Sharks which eventually swung the series. The Kings are tough, resilient and are capable of scoring timely goals. But they’re offense is too much of a concern going up against this Chicago powerhouse. Blackhawks in seven. 

Stay hungry, my friends. 

2nd Best Left

                               (image courtesy of MySanAntonio.com)

2^nd best player left in the NBA Playoffs

Right now the best player left in the NBA playoffs is quite clear, it’s the world’s greatest player, 4 time MVP Lebron James.  This cannot be debated and anyone who wants to debate this is in over their head.  However the question who the 2^nd best player left in these playoffs is quite an interesting one.  Really every team has 2 candidate who could fit the qualifications: (stats courtesy of Basketball Reference)

Dwyane Wade

Regular Season Stats: 69 Games, 34.7 MPG, 21.2 PPG, 5 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.9 SPG, .9 BPG, 2.9 TOPG, .521/.258/.725 FG/3PT/FT%, 24.0 PER, 9.6 Win Shares, .192 WS/48

Post Season Stats: 11 Games 34.5 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, .9 BPG, 2.7 TOPG, .478/.000/.676 FG/3PT/FT%, 18.5 PER, 1.1 WS, .138 WS/48

Chris Bosh

Regular Season Stats: 74 Games, 33.2 MPG, 16.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, .9 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 1.7 TOPG, .535/.284/.798 FG/3PT/FT%, 20.0 PER, 9 WS, .175 WS/48

Post Season Stats: 12 Games, 32.2 MPG, 14 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.3 APG, .7 SPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.3 TOPG, .516/.458/.676 FG/3PT/FT%, 18.6 PER, 1.5 WS, .186 WS/48

Paul George

Regular Season Stats: 79 Games, 37.6 MPG, 17.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.8 SPG, .6 BPG, 2.9 TOPG, .419/.362/.807 FG/3PT/FT%, 16.8 PER, 9 WS, .145 WS/48

Post Season Stats: 15 Games, 41.7 MPG, 19.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, .5 BPG, 3.7 TOPG, .414/.301/.730 FG/3PT/FT%, 16.7 PER, 1.6 WS, .126 WS/48

Roy Hibbert

Regular Season Stats: 79 Games, 28.7 MPG, 11.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.4 APG, .5 SPG, 2.6 BPG, 2.1 TOPG, .448/.250*/.741 FG/3PT/FT%, 17.3 PER, 6.1 WS, .129 WS/48

*Hibbert shot 1-4 from 3, so the number isn’t representative of his ability*

Post Season Stats: 15 Games, 35.7 MPG, 15.7 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.6 APG, .1 SPG, 2.3 BPG, 2.2 TOPG, .483/.000/.810 FG/3PT/FT%, 20.9 PER, 2.1 WS, .186 WS/48

Tim Duncan

Regular Season Stats: 69 Games. 30.1 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.7 APG, .7 SPG, 2.7 BPG, 2.1 TOPG, .502/.286*/.817 FG/3PT/FT%, 24.4 PER, 8.3 WS, .191 WS/48

*Was 2-7 from 3, not a representative sample*

Post Season Stats: 14 Games, 34.4 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, .9 SPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.9 TOPG, .461/.000/.797 FG/3PT/FT%, 20.3 PER, 1.5 WS, .154 WS/48

Tony Parker

Regular Season Stats: 66 Games, 32.9 MPG, 20.3 PPG, 3 RPG, 7.6 APG, .8 SPG, .1 BPG, 2.6 TOPG, .522/.353/.845 FG/3PT/FT%, 23.0 PER, 9.3 WS, .206 WS/48

Post Season Stats: 14 Games, 37 MPG, 23 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 7.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, .1 BPG, 2.7 TOPG, .475/.375/.797 FG/3PT/FT%,  24.1 PER, 2.1 WS, .194 WS/48

So looking at all of these candidates statistically a few things stand out:

·         Basing this on regular season statistics alone this would lead us to suggest that either Wade, Parker or Duncan is the best player of the bunch probably with a slight lead given to Parker

·         Basing only on post season statistics the lead would be given to Parker while Chris Bosh and Roy Hibbert offer compelling cases

However trying to piece together a case for all these players based on statistics alone isn’t smart, so what else do each of these players offer

Wade

Pros: An aggressive and efficient scorer, reliable option, able to provide above average defense, rebounding and passing at the shooting guard position

Cons: Clearly injured now and it is effecting his play, has an unreliable jumpshot that he relies on too frequently, and is known to play lazy transition defense

Bosh

Pros: One of the NBA’s great mid-range jump shooters who is able to provide important spacing.  Has adjusted well to playing out of position and is basically an irreplaceable component to Miami’s unique style.  Numbers would likely be better if he was on a worse team.

Cons: Could be a better rebounder for his position and can be pushed around by bigger players on defense. 

George

Pros:  Athletically a marvel who defends the other team’s best offensive player and is his team’s primary offensive weapon.  Can penetrate and shoot the 3 point shot and shoot the 3 point shot an important combination.  Has guarded Carmelo Anthony, Josh Smith and Lebron James about as well as they can be guarded

Cons:  Way to turnover friendly offensively, something he is working on but still needs to adjust to, and while a good offensive option his efficiency could be better. 

Hibbert

Pros: Arguably the league’s best interior defender, something that statistics don’t signify fully.  A strong post option and since recovering from injury has been a completely different player offensively. 

Cons:  Offensively his game still needs some work, has to improve as a pick and roll player, passer, and has limited offensive range.

Duncan

Pros:  Still one of the NBA’s best all-around bigs, has a solid post game, great mid-range shooter, very good passer, a very good rebounder, solid post defense and really good help defense.

Cons: Age has limited his minutes this season and has slowed him down defensively while his post-game isn’t the automatic double team it once was.

Parker

Pros: Elite offensive player, who can score at the rim efficiently, is an elite mid-range jumpshooter and great passer.  As shown in the Memphis series can take over the game scoring, 37 points in Game 4 or by passing, 18 assists in Game 2.

Cons: Limited 3 point shooter, makes them at a fairly high percentage but low volume, and defensively can be targeted. 

Basically every player has their strengths and weaknesses and has at least a small case for this spot.

Rankings:

1.       Lebron James

In case anyone forgot Lebron has this spot on cruise control, he is significantly better than any of these players and it is a waist to compare them.

2.      Tony Parker

Though he can be a liability defensively, his offensive ability more than makes up for it.  He has been consistent throughout the regular season and playoffs and is truly one of the game’s elite players.

3.      Roy Hibbert

His impact defensively can’t be understated and offensively he is no slouch either.  His early season slump seems likely to be because of injuries and if post season play is any indication he is likely getting better from here.

4.      Tim Duncan

Would be ranked higher but age and minute limits weaken his arguments.  Still per minute is the best guy on the list.

5.      Paul George

One of the NBA’s best young players, and has really broken out this post season.  However his inconsistent play prevents him from being ranked higher, though he might be closer to Lebron on this list soon.

6.      Chris Bosh

Great offensive weapon and has embraced his role completely on this elite Heat team.  However his weaknesses are still obvious and thus can’t be ranked higher.

7.      Dwyane Wade

The only reason Wade is this low is injuries, if it was just based on regular season production he would have as strong a case as anyone for the top spot.  However injuries have clearly limited him and he is not playing near his superstar level. 

Stay Hungry My Friends

MLB in Review: Central Powers Edition

Image courtesy of ChicagoNow.com

This week’s MLB in Review is heavily focused on teams from the Central divisions. Both divisions have multiple teams duking out for the top spot (one division has the obvious talent edge). I realized a few things in researching these teams. First, “Central” is a pretty loose title for both divisions. It doesn’t feel like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Cincinnati totally deserve that moniker. Secondly, I realized this would be an excellent opportunity for a Memorial Day pun. With further ado, here’s the MLB in Review: Central Powers Edition. 

(I should note I’m saving Cleveland for next week for sample size purposes.)

All stats are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. 

Motown Meanies: The Detroit Tigers can pitch. That’s why they were preseason World Series favorites and, as of Monday, are tied with St. Louis for the best run differential in baseball. Right? Well, not exactly. The Tigers haven’t pitched poorly so far, (they’re ninth in the MLB in runs allowed) but it’s been the offense that has carried this team so far.

The Tigers are first in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. Eight of their nine most used players have an OBP of .325 or higher. No one has been more responsible for this offensive revolution than Miguel Cabrera. The reigning MVP has a batting line of .379/.454/.667 with 14 home runs and a 3.5 wins above replacement. So is this type of production-for Cabrera and the Tigers-sustainable? Most likely not. Cabrera’s BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is a sky-high .394. This means his numbers will likely fall to normal MVP-type levels. Other hitters, such as the ageless Torii Hunter, have unsustainably-high peripheral numbers and should a see a decline in their current pace. However, there is at least one Tiger hitter who should see an uptick in production. Prince Fielder has an abnormally low .300 BABIP and is batting only .270.

The good news for the Tigers is there is room for improvement on the pitching front. Anibal Sanchez is putting up very good numbers despite a 5-4 record. Max Scherzer is 7-0 but his peripheral stats point to possible improvement. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 2.39 indicates his ERA of 3.42 should be lower. Some of this discrepancy is due to a poor defensive infield for Detroit. However both Scherzer and Verlander (3.36 ERA, 2.26 FIP) will see improvement soon. The question for Detroit will be whether this improvement will be enough to counteract possible regression on the hitting front.   

NL Central: Another year, another MLB season of the NL Central being the best division in baseball as May turns into June…wait, what??!! By win percentage, the Central has the three best teams in the NL and the first, third and fifth best teams in the MLB in the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates, respectively. Of course the Pirates haven’t had a winning season since the Bush administration but that has no bearing on this year’s team. That being said, the Bucs have the weakest of the three teams. They rely too heavily on their pitching staff which will rely heavily on the continued revivals of AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano, along with Jeff Locke and his almost certain regression (nearly a two point difference between his ERA and FIP). The lineup is led by superstar Andrew McCutchen and emerging star Starling Marte. Pedro Alvarez has been all power, nothing else as per usual while Neil Walker, Garrett Jones and Russell Martin have been slightly above average. Beyond that they the Pirates have almost nothing. The Pirates won’t have the pitching or hitting depth to compete with Cincinnati or St. Louis. However, they do have a chance to compete for the second Wild Card spot and will most likely break the elusive .500 barrier.

The Reds might be the most interesting team in this race. They pitch and hit at an elite level (top five in runs scored and allowed), they have the game’s best player (Joey Votto), scariest flamethrower (Aroldis Chapman), the most unlikely career year (Shin-Soo Choo)and most importantly, they just got ace Johnny Cueto back from the DL. They’re now loaded top to bottom pitching wise with the formidable five-some of Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake with a quality bullpen to boot. The offense, which should eventually feature a Todd Frazier bounce-back, is nearly equally dangerous. With an unhittable staff, quality bullpen and the World’s best hitter, these Reds are loaded up for a World Series run. But are they even good enough to win their own division?

A Sports Illustrated feature on the Cardinals this week profiled the incredible pitching legacy former coach Dave Duncan left with the Cardinals. The Red Birds seem to always have a quality staff despite injuries, aging and free-agent departures. As the article states, this may be the best pitching staff they’ve had yet. Three of their regular starters have an ERA under three while fourth man Jaime Garcia is pulling up the rear with a 3.58 (what a bum!). They may even get Jake Westbrook back from injury eventually. But even if they don’t, that foursome is good enough to heat a small country. The best on the staff so far has unquestionably been Shelby Miller. The 22-year old is only 5-3 but has an ERA of 2.02, a WHIP of .98 and strikeouts per nine innings of 9.39. He’s a candidate for Rookie of the year as well as the Cy Young.

The Cardinal offense is nothing to sneeze at either. Perhaps you’ve never heard of Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, Pete Kozma and Jon Jay. They’re four position players between the ages of 25-28 who, combined make less than one-third of what Albert Pujols does. None of these players are spectacular but all have a higher on-base percentage and offensive WAR than Pujols. Together they’ve made up for that was lost when Pujols bolted for Los Angeles.( Matt Holiday and Carlos Beltran have been pretty good too. Oh and Yadier Molina is a legitimate MVP candidate.)

This is shaping up to be quite the divisional race. While the Cards have the upper hand at the moment, the Pirates and Reds are both good enough to go on a run and win the division. We may be in for a one-game playoff between two of these teams as the wild card play-in. Hooray for the Mid-West (kinda).

 Performance of the week: The aforementioned Anibal Sanchez threw a gem Friday night. He took a no-hitter into the ninth before losing it on a Joe Mauer single up the middle. All in all, Sanchez threw a complete game shutout while allowing only one hit and three walks and struck out 12.

Game to watch: New York Mets vs. the New York Yankees Tuesday at 7 on ESPN.

If he’s cleared to pitch, Hiroki Kuroda will take on crosstown rival ace, Matt Harvey in duel that will help decide who the best pitcher in New York is (for 2013, at least).

Stay hungry, my friends. 

Sports Illustrated Overload

Image courtesy of InsideSportsIllustrated.com

At some point in 2006 I began to save issues of Sports Illustrated and store them under my bed. This worked out fine until recently when I came home for summer break and realized just how much space they were taking up.

I gathered every issue I could find and began to go through them. I saved the most important issues (Jason Collins coming out and the Bills beating the Patriots among others) but I only kept only the cover of the vast majority of them.

Looking through all the issues provided me with a perspective on how sports are covered by the magazine, what sports/stories/events get attention most often and what sports get preference at different times of the year. I noticed that sometimes SI is too quick to jump on a story (Jeremy Lin made the cover two weeks in a row last winter). I recalled the disappointing ends of seasons for the vast majority of teams that are featured (’08 Cubs, ’06 Mets). I observed that some athletes get far more attention than others (Peyton Manning is featured about twice per NFL season).

Because I un-subscribed for a short time and likely lost or threw away many of the issues, I had only 244 total. The amount of covers per sport was no surprise considering when playing seasons occur and competition with other sports. Because they have the summer to themselves for the most part, the MLB was the subject of the most covers.

The breakdown looked like this:

MLB: 66

NFL: 59

NCAA Football: 31

NBA: 28

NCAA Basketball: 24

Olympics: 8 (Four of which were Michael Phelps)

Golf: 8 (Six were Tiger Woods, two Phil Mickleson)

Auto Racing : 3

Boxing: 2

Tennis: 2

NHL: 2

Lance Armstrong: 1

Horse Racing: 1

Miscellaneous: 5

So I guess we’ll start with the elephant in the room…the NHL graced the cover only twice in my six years of collecting SI’s. That works out to about .8% of all issues. Tiger Woods made the cover at three times the rate of the “fourth major sport”. Even Michael Phelps doubled up hockey and he only matters for a month every four years!

I can’t totally blame SI for their lack of hockey coverage. They’re supposed to provide interesting and well-written features that provide an in-depth look at athlete; something that goes beyond the sport they play and reaches into their soul to find out who they are and why. I do not envy any writer who’s trying to extract any information beyond un-clever nicknames from a hockey player.

 And I should mention that many of the covers teased NHL features to be found within the magazine. Perhaps there just aren’t enough decent-looking NHL players to earn a cover shot. Or maybe most America’s indifference toward the NHL goes beyond ESPN’s lack of coverage. Maybe people just don’t care.

Perhaps the most enjoyable part of going through all the old issues was figuring out what became of the teams and players featured on the cover. Obviously every Mets cover must now serve as a painful reminder to fans of the team that hope is the first step on the road to disappointment (like they didn’t already know that). Some covers were eerily predictive; none more so than the one of Brett Favre crying at his retirement press conference with the title: “Hard to Say Goodbye.”

A few covers featured young athletes in an attempt to introduce American to someone who they believed would be the future of that sport. I distinctly remember being excited about the future of baseball while reading about a 16-year old Bryce Harper in 2009. I wonder if in 2015 we’ll look at the Jabari Parker cover the same way we look at that Harper one now. Maybe we’ll laugh at it the way I did when I glanced at a picture of Tate Forcier in the top corner of a fall 2009 issue (what happened to that guy anyway?).

Through all the old covers I looked up and all the features I re-read, the greatest discovery was remembering why I saved all the magazines in the first place: a young Taylor’s love of Sports Illustrated. The day I found it resting in my mailbox after stepping off the school bus was the best day of any given week. I read it cover to cover, each week I used it as a portal to the world I wanted to live in; the world of sports journalism. Now that fantasy is a reality.

The best part of this nostalgia was remembering the cherry on top of each issue: the back page masterpieces written by Rick Reilly. It reminded me that Reilly wasn’t always the lazy, unoriginal hack he is now. At one point, he was the greatest sports writer in the world despite never really writing about sports.

I glanced back at a few of his old columns while remembering how excited I used to be to read what he had to say on a weekly basis. Upon opening to the last page and viewing one of his old articles, memories came rushing back to me.

The article is entitled “Making up for Lost Time.” It tells the story of a young man named Corey Lemke who was killed in motorcycle accident. Corey was a star wrestler in high school and golfed in college before being killed. He was also best friends with his father. The story can’t be more than 500 words but Reilly didn’t need any more than that to perfectly encapsulate the Lemkes’ relationship. By the end of the article, I felt as though I had lost a son.

This article was not only a reminder of what a brilliant control Reilly once had over the English language and it’s emotional power; it was a reminder of why I fell in love with sports writing in the first place. It’s about more than the features and interest stories on teams and their potential. It’s about the human side of every person sports touches. A postal worker in Arizona who loves the Cardinals more than anything might have just as beautiful a story to tell as any famous or prevalent pro athlete. It’s the job of the sports writer, especially one with a platform like the one Sports Illustrated has, to tell those stories.

Oh, the things you’ll discover under your bed. 

Pacers vs Heat: Eastern Conference Finals Preview

                             (Image courtesy of ESPN.com)

Eastern Conference Finals

Miami Heat (1) vs Indiana Pacers (3)

On the surface this series should be an easy prediction, and in many ways it will be.  The Miami Heat are without question a superior to the Pacers and proved so by winning 66 games in comparison to the Pacers 49.  The thing is that the Pacer’s strengths seem to matchup quite well with the Heat’s weaknesses, thus the Pacer’s 2-1 record against the Heat this season. 

When the Pacers have the ball

The Pacers are by no means a great offensive team, they ranked 20^th in the league during the regular season and in the playoffs have scored at approximately the same rate.  This team turns the ball over too frequently and has an eFG% that ranks 22^nd in the league.  However what their offensive thrives on is offensive rebounds, the team ranked 4^th in the league in offensive rebound % during the regular season and ranks first in the post season thus far.  The Heat’s major weakness defensively is that they rank 24^th in the league in Defensive Rebound %, not surprising for a team that is constantly playing small.  The Pacer’s will have to decrease their turnovers if they want any hope in this series.  As great as Roy Hibbert and David West are bound to play with their size advantage, the Heat are going to be trying to force plenty of turnovers against this squad.  Paul George a rising star is going to have to take care of the ball if the Pacers have any hope in this series.  Actually on this side of the floor the most interesting decision will be how the Heat decide to guard David West.  The Pacer’s showed against the Knicks last series and against the Heat in the regular season that they are not afraid of small ball lineups and will put West in the post to punish whoever is guarding him.  The decision for the Heat is when they play small, which will likely be much of the series, who guards him Lebron or Battier.  While Lebron size wise is more up to the challenge, and he has proven himself to be a capable post defender, but will Spoelstra want to risk wearing Lebron down, especially knowing they might to play an equally physical Memphis team in the next round.  My guess is that they even if Lebron is able to guard him more effectively, Spoelstra trusts Battier to hold his own, wanting to save him some energy and allowing him to matchup against Paul George. 

When the Heat have the ball

This is really where the series is going to be interesting.  How will the Pacer’s elite defense matchup with the Heat’s elite offense?  The Heat’s strengths as a team are Lebron and Wade’s penetration into the middle, Bosh’s elite mid-range game and their array of 3 point shooters manning the perimeter.  The Pacer’s defense relies on Hibbert shutting down the paint and playing the best defense against the 3 in the league.  Basically the Pacers are going to try to take away what the Heat does best and force them into the mid-range game.  Throughout two rounds the Pacers have definitely done this, quite impressively against the New York Knicks another one of the NBA’s elite 3 point shooting teams.   The Pacers starting lineup featuring George Hill, Lance Stephenson and Paul George is probably the best perimeter backcourt with regards to defense in the NBA.  If any team has hope of containing Lebron James and the seemingly always injured Dwayne Wade it is this one.  This leads me to the key player for this series, Chris Bosh.  The 3^rd and least talked about star of the Big 3 who seems to be nothing more than a jump shooter at times is going to play a critical role in this series.  First of all Chris Bosh is one of the best mid-range shooters in the league and if any defense plans on conceding him that shot then they are destined for failure.  If they don’t plan on leaving him that shot then in the Miami Heat’s small ball lineups that leaves Hibbert guarding Bosh.  If Bosh is consistently making that shot then that means Hibbert has to leave the paint to contest it, making it easier for the Heat to penetrate and score in the paint. 

Prediction

Overall this is definitely going to be another fun matchup to watch between two teams that know each other well.  The Pacers elite defense is going to be tested to the limit against this great offense.  The coaching battle should be fascinating as to whether either teams breaks from its gameplan.  Basically whether Indiana will go small, Frank Vogel claims not, or whether Miami will break away from its small ball lineups.  Both benches will be tested, especially Indiana’s a team that seems to always struggle if it has to rely on its bench.  Overall I’m looking forward to this series, but I think Chris Bosh comes up big for the most part and the Heat win in 6.

Stay Hungry My Friends

MLB in Review: Beantown Pitching, Desert Hitting and an Epic Duel of Futility

Image courtesy of thebostonjam.com

A quick look at the MLB standings provides a bit of a shock and a few questions. We’re already a quarter through the season? How can that be? Didn’t Opening Day just happen?

More prominently, some baseball-related questions may arise. Is this no longer considered a small sample size? Are Jon  Lester and Clay Buchholz good enough to keep Boston competitive all year? Who’s worse: The Astros or Marlins? What’s going on with the Los Angeles teams? And why are the Diamondbacks surging when they’re supposed to be falling back? All of these questions and more will be answered in this week’s MLB in Review.

Boston Flamethrowers

The Red Sox lost 93 games in 2012 mostly due to a horrifically bad pitching staff. This year, with mostly the same staff, the Sox are 26-17 with middle-of –the-pack pitching numbers. This improvement has been almost entirely the result of the lights out pitching of Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Both are 6-0, Lester with a 2.72 ERA, Buchholz with a minuscule 1.78. Obviously some improvement was expected after a horrid season by two pitchers in their primes, but both have far exceeded expectation so far in 2013.  Will that be enough to keep the Red Sox afloat all season? Probably not. Buchholz and Lester will eventually fall back to Earth and there’s not much behind them in the rotation to get excited about (Ryan Dempster, Jon Lackey, Felix Doubront). Meanwhile, how long can they expect to get THIS type of production from Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino? Expect the Red Sox to slow down fairly soon, most likely soon after Buchholz and Lester regress to their respective capabilities.

Hollywood Horror

In the past year and a half, no city has made more noise in the free agent and trade markets than Los Angeles. Both the Angels and the Dodgers have opened their respective wallets players such as Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, CJ Wilson and Zach Greinke. Their payrolls now exceed a combined $400 million. So it should be no great surprise that the Dodgers are in last place in the NL West while the Angels are in fourth, kept out of the AL West basement only by the historical ineptitude of the Houston Astros.

Both teams totally ignored modern-team building techniques and basic sense in an attempt to become the Yankees of the West. What they failed to realize is throwing money around doesn’t build a baseball team. It never did. It’s especially not true now. Teams don’t allow quality players to reach free agency before their 30^th birthdays anymore. That’s why the Dodgers got stuck with a bunch of guys who got old young (Gonzalez, Crawford, Ramirez) while the Angels gave mega-deals to two guys in their 30’s in consecutive off-seasons.

The team’s failures have obvious and spectacular so far. They don’t appear to be on a path to narrowly missing the playoffs like last year, they’re both among the worst teams in the league. The Angels, albeit struggling with multiples injuries, are 16-27 while the Dodgers are 17-24 with a -35 run differential. This might not be the year for either team. I recommend Ned Colletti  and Jerry Dipoto both pick up a copy of Moneyball in the offseason so they stop wasting their owners' valuable resources.

The Great Duel of Futility

According to MLBProspects.com, Carlos Rodon of North Carolina State is the top prospect for the 2014 draft. The front offices of Marlins and Astros must really be high on Rodon because their futility has been nothing short of incredible. The race for last place may be more exciting and action-packed than any of this year’s playoff races.

FOR EXAMPLE: 

Houston is 12-31 and Miami is 11-32. The Marlins have the league’s worst offense by 24 runs while the Astros have allowed 42 more runs than anyone else (and are on pace to allow nearly 1000 on the season).

Other remarkable stats for the teams:

The five players who have taken the most at bats for Miami this season are batting .243, .236, .210, .221 and .278, respectively.

Justin Ruggiano, the .210 from above, has been the team’s most effective hitter with a .698 OPS and .5 wins above replacement.

Houston has already used seven starting pitchers; only two have an ERA below five, none below 4.32.

Besides young star Jose Altuve, the Astros best hitters are Marwin Gonzalez and Carlos Pena.

The Astros employ Carlos Pena.

We’re in for a good old fashioned southern duel this summer. May the most pathetic franchise win.

The D-Backs are Back

Although you may not remember it, the Diamondbacks captured the 2011 NL West division title in between San Francisco championships. Yes, that actually happened. Last year I wrote briefly about their vastly underrated, young core and now it appears people are taking notice. First basemen Paul Goldschmidt was called “an early MVP candidate” by ESPN”s Buster Olney. The 25-year-old is batting .335 with a .418 on-base percentage and 12 home runs. He’s entering his prime and could form quite a duo with right fielder Gerardo Parra. The fifth-year Parra has a batting line of  .327/.394/.506 and, like Goldschmidt, is rounding into his prime at age 26. The D-Backs also employ young pitchers Patrick Corbin (6-0, 1.52 ERA) and Trevor Cahill (2.48 ERA).

Arizona management may have made some questionable moves in the offseason (trading young star Justin Upton because…) but there’s still a solid and balanced young core in place and most of them seem to be rounding into their primes. Because of this, Arizona currently sits in first place in the NL West with a RECORD. They might have a chance at further improvement if Ian Kennedy and Brandon McCarthy are both able to re-capture some of their 2011 magic.

Arizona could be the NL team of the future provided that Kevin Towers doesn’t sell the rest of his budding stars for pennies on the dollar.

Hot and not-so-hot teams

The Rays have now won eight of ten are surging back into AL East contention. Remarkably, Tampa is sixth in runs scored. That’s not a typo. The Tampa Bay Rays have one of baseball’s best offenses. And, of course, James Loney is leading the charge. The man who formerly defined the moniker “average Joe” has a line of .371/.423/.540. Sneaky-awesome signing Kelly Johnson and superstar Evan Longoria have also been phenomenal for the Rays. As of now, it appears there are five dogs in the AL East race.

After starting the season 17-10 and moving into first place, the Kansas City Royals have dropped nine of twelve and have fallen to third in the AL Central. They’ll have a chance to turn things around, however, as they travel to Houston to take on the lowly Astros this week before hosting the slumping Angels.

That it for this week. Stay hungry, my friends. 

Grizzlies vs Spurs: Western Conference Finals Preview

                                           (Image courtesy of mySanAntonio.com)

Western Conference Finals

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs Memphis Grizzlies (4)

Well if you love defense is this the matchup for you!  In this series between the NBA’s 2^nd and 3^rd best defenses there are going to be a few key matchups that dictate who wins the series, a rematch of the first round from two years ago. 

Guards/Wings

Mike Conley has probably been the most underrated players in the NBA all season and he is really coming into his own this postseason.  While he hasn’t shot particularly well he has improved his PER by getting to the free throw line more, assisting on more baskets and turning the ball over less.  He is also one of the best defensive guards in the league, he has more steals than even the great Tony Allen and the elite defense definitely falls when he’s no there.  The Grizzlies also have the world’s hungriest dog in Tony Allen who can shut down almost any player at this point and will definitely be unleashed on the likes of Manu Ginobili.  The Grizzlies then have the combination of Prince, Bayless and Pondexter providing floor spacing when those at those positions.  The Spurs will be throwing out their MVP candidate point guard in Tony Parker who will surely be guarded by Mike Conley and Tony Allen at all times.  Off the bench they will be able to throw out the ever dangerous Manu Ginobili who provides his unique style and will likely be facing the wrath of Mr. Allen all series long.  Then there is sharpshooter Gary Neal along with starters Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard who look to provide defense and floor spacing in their own right.  If the Spurs are going to win this series they are going to have to dominant with their guards and wings.  The reason the Spurs might be able to gain an edge in this series is that the Grizzlies have something that the Warriors didn’t, a “hider”, or a place to effectively hide Tony Parker on defense.  Parker can guard the likes of Tony Allen, Bayless and Pondexter without be punished too severely, where he was when facing the Warriors.  None of those players are developed enough offensively where the Spurs wouldn’t feel comfortable with Parker guarding them.  This could even produce increased minutes for Gary Neal as well as the Spurs try to increase their offensive proficiency.  The Grizzlies defense is without question going to be excellent but if the Spurs defense, which will likely put Danny Green on Mike Conley can really limit the Grizzlies offense then it might not matter.  The Spurs would have the ability to play lineups that could provide some interesting decisions for the Grizzlies coaches.  The other issue though is if Conley and Allen take Parker and Ginobili out of their games what choices can the Spurs make to get their offense back running?

Bigs

Well this should be good, the Grizzlies formidable front line of Gasol and Randolph against Tim Duncan and whoever Popovich decides to put next to him.  This has been the Grizzlies greatest strength all season and it’s a strength that has only improved in the post season.  While Marc Gasol has been his normal point-Center self offensively and defense of the year self on the other end of the floor, Randolph has really picked up his game.  This postseason, he’s shooting more, shooting more efficiently and getting to the free throw line more and has been the main reason for the Grizzlies’ improved offensive play this post season.  How the Spurs treat him is going to be the most interesting decision of the series and maybe of the post season thus far.  Do the Spurs decide to keep their traditional big lineups in with a seemingly healthy Tiago Splitter, do they go small with Leonard for extended periods of time and if so how much do they trust him guarding the likes of Zach Randolph, or do they extend Boris Diaw’s minutes.  This is the main question because in all likelihood, Gasol and Duncan, arguably the NBA’s 2 best centers play each other to a draw this series.  Leonard is probably the key player in this entire series because he is likely going to be asked to guard every player from Mike Conley to Zach Randolph.  If he can hold his own against Randolph though it would allow the Spurs to go small and thus a more dynamic offensive attack.  If not then Splitter is going to have to play great defense and be the big and roll threat he was this entire season.  If Randolph continues his dominant play though it could be extremely difficult for the Spurs to win this series, they become a very good offense with him playing well and that combined with their defense prowess is almost unstoppable. 

                Overall this series is really going to be awesome to watch.  Based on how these two teams have been playing recently and the series from two years ago it would seem the Grizzlies have the slight edge, but I think the Spurs have enough going in their favor to pull it out.  This series is clearly about matchups and putting your players in the best possible position to succeed.  Thus I’m thinking the Spurs can get the slight edge there by having a better coach in Popovich who might be able to find some slight matchups edges to exploit.  I think Randolph’s great play will cool down a bit especially if he’s facing another physical defender like Splitter, something he hasn’t had to deal with this postseason.  Overall this series is practically a tossup though and there is result that would surprise me.  That being said however, Spurs in 7.

Stay Hungry My Friends

What the Game Ones (and one Game Two) Told Us About the NHL Playoffs

Image courtesy of Aeryssports.com

The series have begun, the Stanley Cup picture has begun to clear up and heroes and saviors have emerged. Yes, we’re in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs and the early match-ups provided a nice picture of what the series may look like.

For some reason, the NHL has decided to schedule only one game for tonight, Ottawa vs. Pittsburgh. The Penguins were noticeably better in game one and have looked like a different team since benching Fleury. They’re still not as dominant as a team with multiple future Hall of Famers and several current all-stars should be, but they’re getting there. They won 4-1 Tuesday without a point from Sidney Crosby. If Sid the Kid is on and Tomas Vokoun continues to play the way he has, they’ll roll through the Eastern Conference.

All Game One of the Rangers and Bruins series showed us was how tightly contested the series will be. It was out-of-character for Henrik Lundqvist to allow the Rangers to fall behind by allowing two (somewhat) soft goals. Don’t expect to see that again this series. Just as I wrote the other day, expect a hard-fought seven gamer.

On the Western front, Detroit looked well over-matched by the far-superior Blackhawks in Game One. It might seem ridiculous to over-react to one game but Chicago doubled the Wings shot total (42-21) and generally looked superior in every facet of the game. The Wings kept it close for much of the game for no other reason than the effort of the criminally-underrated Jimmy Howard. He had no chance on either of the last two goals and stymied the relentless Chicago fore-check for most of the game.

On a side note, the Hawks have won their last three games by a combined score of 12-2 after dropping Game Three of the Conference Quarterfinals to Minnesota. They’re now 5-1 in the playoffs and appear to be the most dominant team since the 2008 Detroit Red Wings. Those Wings fell behind to 2-1 to Nashville in the first round before ripping off 10 consecutive victories (in the freakin playoffs). They won 13 of 15 at one point and defeated the upstart Penguins in the Stanley Cup. They were also the last President’s Trophy winner to win the Stanley Cup. Chicago could be on that same path only they have a much more dangerous foe in…

The Los Angeles Kings have won six in a row; five of the games have been decided by one goal while the other was decided by two. They aren’t blowing teams away; they aren't dominating like last year. This is a tough, veteran team. Not veteran in the sense that they have older players and playoff experience; veteran in the sense that nothing fazes them. They didn’t panic when they were down 2-0 to St. Louis, they relied on what they knew:  great goaltending, solid defense and a relentless offensive attack.  That’s why it was no great surprise when they scored two goals in the final three minutes to defeat the Sharks in regulation last night. It’s not just that they’re especially good or clutch; it’s that they know it. This is setting up to be the best Western Conference Final since the days of Detroit/Colorado rivalry. I, for one, can’t wait.

Stay hungry, my friend.