The All Star festivities are all finished up and we're now into the second half of this wonderfully strange MLB season. Although teams are still a bit jumbled up we can semi-see who the contenders are going to be. Well....we know who they're not going to be. There are nine teams that seem to be completely and totally out of the playoff race. These teams will be considered sellers at the deadline in a couple weeks. They are the Royals, Twins, Mariners, Brewers, Cubs, Astros, Rockies, Padres, and Phillies. That's right....the Phillies. They'd need to go about 50-23 the rest of the way just to have a shot at the second wild card. Historic runs tend to be tough to make when two of your five starters have era's hovering around five.
Basically, any one of the other 21 teams has a legitimate shot at winning the World Series. I know right now it seems very unlikely that a team like Arizona or Miami would win but is it any less likely than the Cardinals run last year? Any team that has a chance to make the playoffs can win the World Series. All you need is a key trade or two and a couple guys getting hot and any of one of these teams could be champs of the Fall Classic. (But in all likelihood it'll be whoever's beating Texas.) So what team has the best chance at winning and what moves does each team need to make to have a chance at winning? Read and find out!
(Rankings are based on the team's chances at making the playoffs)
21. Toronto: The AL's slightly better version of the Rockies are barely hanging on to contention for one major reason; they can score with anyone. The problem is the pitching staff where they're employing the bold strategy of starting everyone who can throw over the plate(10 starters in the first half). The Jays are only a few games back of the wild card but they have a few teams they'd have to leapfrog to get that second wild card spot. Unless Morrow returns with a never before seen vengence and another pitcher or two steps up; they just won't have be able to finish better than Cleveland, Detroit, Boston, Baltimore, AND Tampa. But what they need to have a chance is to get Morrow back as soon as possible and for Adam Lind to get back to 2008 form. Either way, they don't have much of a chance.
20. Arizona: To those who study advanced stats, 2012 seemed like an obvious regression year for the Diamondbacks. Teams that make huge leaps such as the one Arizona made from 2010 to 2011 tend to regress a bit in their third year. Although the D-Backs have done just that, they aren't dead yet. The leader in this regression movement has been former Yankee Ian Kennedy. After a Cy Young worthy season last year; he's been a little less than impressive in 2012. Trevor Cahill and Joe Saunders round out a trio of disappointment in the pitching staff. There is a nice little quartet in the line-up of Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Hill, Jason Kubel, and Justin Upton. 2009 1st round draft pick Trevor Bauer was recently called up but has struggled a tad. If he and Kennedy can improve down the stretch and the offense picks up someone with a little pop in their bat (they're one guy away from being a top tier offense); then they have a much better chance at catching San Francisco and Los Angeles.
19. Miami: Yes the Marlins are still alive despite having the same record as the already deceased Brewers and there's a fairly simple reason for that. They have the pieces for a run; it just needs to start right now. The addition of Carlos Lee and the return of Emilio Bonifacio should help a bit but it won't be enough. The Fish needs somewhat of a shake up. This is far too talented of a team to be under .500 and there may be one too many under-achievers on the roster. General Manager Michael Hill may want to look to make a trade to try and spark the team on a second half run. He may want to act soon; it won't be long before this is a lost season for the once promising Marlins.
18. Oakland: For the first time in a while the A's still matter in mid-July. This is mostly due to the pitching on a team who in 72 of 88 games has sent a starter to the mound with an e.r.a less than 4. If Brandon McCarthy can return to form after his stint on the DL Oakland could have the best pitching in baseball. The line-up isn't exactly the '27 Yankees though and they aren't really the organization to go out and make the biggest trade at the deadline. My guess is they'd rather make moves so small and sneaky that I couldn't possibly see them coming. Either that or they stand pat and worry more about the future than this year. That's usually the way the A's tend to operate; but after the Cespedes signing this spring you really never know.
17. Baltimore: I can't believe I put the Orioles 17th. The O's 46-42 record and hold on the second wild card spot is the only reason I didn't count them among the dead teams. Because there is no way in hell this team makes the playoffs. They have over a -40 run differential in a division where everyone has a positive run differential. They have one abover average offensive player and a bunch of place holders. They have two decent starters and three AWFUL ones. They're getting by on the absolutely incredible performance of their bullpen(seven pitchers with 20+ innings and below a 2.74 e.r.a.). But eventually the bullpen will be depleted after continuously cleaning up after messes of a staff that has three legitimitely terrible starters(Arrieta, Hunter, Matusz). These guys are headed for one of their pattented Oriole collapses and i'm not sure that any amount of deadline moves could stop it.
16. Cleveland: The Tribe had high hopes after leading the division for the first two months of the season but those hopes appear to be crashing and burned as the team falls into third place in the worst division in baseball. The problems are pretty simple in Cleveland; they don't have any pop in their line-up and they don't have very good starting pitching. If they really want to be World Series contenders this year then they need to make a couple big moves. First off they're going to need to trade for an ace type pitcher to pair with the young and quite average Zach McAllister. They might want to look Milwaukees way and see what it will take to get Zach Greinke. Then they should comb the other sellers for some power in the middle of the line-up. Unless some big changes are made, Cleveland fans are looking at a fifth straight baseball free October.
15. Detroit: After making a suprise run to the ALCS last year and signing slugger Prince Fielder in the offseason; the Tigers were the sexy pick to win the World Series. What many of these analysts were fogetting was that they weren't THAT good. They were reminded of this fact as it took the Tigers until July to climb over the .500 barrier. But any team who makes the playoffs can win it all; all it takes is getting hot at the right time. It also helps playing in the not so strong AL Central. They don't really have a specific need right now but they may want to trade a prospect or two to grab a bat for depth at the deadline.
14: Tampa Bay: A promising season has been derailed by injury woes and a lack of productivity from the middle of the line-up. Slugger Carlos Pena and catcher Jose Molina are both batting under .200. The team is batting .232 as a whole as others such as Ben Zobrist, BJ Upton, and Luke Scott continue to disappoint. The offense suffered another huge blow recently with the news that Evan Longoria will miss the rest of the season. The Rays will absolutely need to shake things up if they hope to make the playoffs. They're the coldest team in the ultra-competitive AL East and they have a legitimate shot at coming in last. I can't see the Rays, who have worked for years to delevop all their players through the best farm system in baseball, trading that a way to take a shot at making the playoffs this year. They seem like the organization to chalk it up to an unlucky year and remain competitive in the future.
13. Boston: One big reason Boston is dangerous: their offense. One big reason Boston likely will miss the playoffs: their pitching. The Sox have been hot and cold this year and thus far it's landed them in 4th place with a barely over .500 record. They'd like to upgrade production wise at the catcher and shortstop positions and I'd like to go back in time and invest in Apple but some wishes aren't feasable. Luckily for them their offense is humming along just fine without very much production at those positions. Their pitching staff however, is not having such a good time. They're about five pitchers short of a staff. If by some chance they did make the playoffs who do they throw out there game 1? Felix Doubront? The same Felix Doubront who is the proud owner of a 4.41 e.r.a? The Sox have been rumored to be after Ryan Dempster for just this reason. But what do they give up in their pursuit? and is Dempster enough to overcome the rest of the staff's struggles and help them into the postseason?
12. New York Mets: I must admit that I never considered the Mets as a threat to do anything but finish in last by far in what was supposed to the best division in baseball. Right now they're only 3.5 games out of the second wild card spot and they look poised to stay around for the long haul. But they'll be hard pressed to make the playoffs without a few upgrades on the roster. First off they need upgrades to one of the worst bullpens in baseball, they need a closer whose e.r.a isn't hovering around 5, and they need a bat or two in the line-up they can count on down the stretch. The Amazins don't have much besides Matt Harvery in Triple A to tempt sellets with. But do they even want to do that? Do the homegrown Mets want to go back to the ways of former GM Omar Minaya or will Manager/Demi God of Queens Terry Collins be content to let the team continue to grow? I guess we'll see in the next couple weeks. Either way the Mets have exceeded expectation this year and have a lot to be proud of/build on.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers: After getting off to a suprisingly hot start, they've cooled a bit of late. The one-two punch of Clayton Kershaw and Chris Capuano has continued to dominate but injuries took their toll on the line-up. The good news is that Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Mark Ellis have all returned from the DL as the team looks to battle the Giants for NL West supremecy. However, they'll need to add at least one more bat in the line-up if they hope to compete down the stretch. Perhaps they should look to see how willing division rival San Diego is to part with 3B Chase Headly.
10.Atlanta: Whether it be for Mark Teixiera or Michael Bourn; the Braves seem to make a splash nearly every year at the trade deadline. With the team in the thick of the wild card race and on a seven game win streak, I wouldn't expect this year to be very different. Look for them to try to upgrade somewhere in the infield; likely at the first base or shortstop position. Additionally, if they were to land a Greinke/ King Felix type they'd be World Series favorites in the National League.
9 St. Louis: Despite a +65 run differential, the Red Birds are 46-43 and sitting in third in the NL Central. They have the best offense in the NL and are 6th in pitching. This leads me to believe that at some point regression to the mean will occur and St. Louis will start winning some games. Like Atlanta, St. Louis has been known to make some noise at the deadline. The tough part is they don't really have any weaknesses so it's tough to pinpoint who they'd go after. What is clear is that they WILL make a move at the deadline. They will not be content to let this season go to waste.
8. Pittsburgh: Yes it must be 2012 because the Pittsburgh Pirates have the 8th best chance at making the playoffs. The Mayans must have been on to something because the Pittsburgh Pirates are neck and neck with the Reds for the NL Central lead in mid JULY. After suffering through nearly two months of God awful hitting, the line-up has employed the bold strategy of scoring runs. The strategy has paid off thus far as the Pirates have worked their way into contention. Andrew McCutchen is the favorite for MVP and the pitching staff is one of the best in the league. The Pirates have two things to do before they can make a run. 1. Trade for one more big bat in the outfield 2. Find out what kind of "vitamins" A.J. Burnett took this offseason and give them to the entire team.
7. Chicago White Sox: After letting Ozzie go and flying under the radar for most of the offseason; nearly everything has gone right this season for the White Sox. They have everything they need for an extended playoff run. Everything, that is, except a third reliable pitcher. If the Cubs don't want to send the suddenly great Ryan Dempster uptown, then the Sox should scour each seller for a reliable #3. The way Peavy and Sale are dealing they won't need a top tier guy. But it couldn't hurt to grab one if they could.
6. San Francisco: The Giants are returning to their 2010 form and have taken the lead in the not so strong NL West. They can throw one of the best 3-headed monsters in the MLB(Cain, Vogelsong, and Bumgarner) out there in the playoffs and they have a solid bullpen. Look for them to make a trade for a middling hitter for a small price. The Giants know from 2010 that they don't need a top tier offense to win it all.
5. Cincinatti: The Reds are leading the NL Central on the strength of MVP canidate Joey Votto and baseball's most underrated pitching staff. Not only can the Reds win the World Series this year, they have a great chance to do so. So don't expect them to be quiet at the deadline. They could use a few upgrades to add depth to the line-up. I wouldn't be suprised to see them take a shot at an intra-division trade to nab the possibly available Alfonso Soriano. If not they'll upgrade elsewhere, count on it.
4. Washington: The Washington Nationals have allowed 293 runs this entire season. They are by far the best pitching staff in baseball and they're 51-35 record reflects just that. But they need to be that good pitching wise because they're uhhhhh not very good hitting wise. In fact they're pretty bad. Thus the number one thing they need to do is to not bench Strasburg. With him they have the best pitching trio since Atlanta in the late 90's. Without him they may not make the playoffs...and if they did they no longer have the option of moving to a 3 man rotation. Besides what makes them so sure he can't pitch more than 160 innings? Are they just going to use him as an April-August pitcher for the rest of his career? Why does he have to be treated differently than everyone else? Also they may want to use the trade deadline to upgrade that line-up. Having Strasburg as the only regular hitting over .300 is cool and all but i'm not sure it's a winning model. They're badly in need of an outfielder who can hit so expect them to make a trade for someone along the lines of Soriano or perhaps even Justin Upton.
3. Los Angeles: The Angels are as exciting of a team as there is in the MLB. They have two of the top pitchers in the game in Wilson and Weaver and they have two of the best young hitters in slugger Mark Trumbo and rookie phenom Mike Trout. But Earvin Santana and Dan Haren have not been reliable enough yet. Expect the Halos to make a move to solidify their rotation. They could use a third starter if they want to compete with the almighty Rangers.
2. Texas Rangers: There are no moves to be made in Texas. Now that they have Colby Lewis and Derek Holland back; their rotation is completely solid. The Rangers also have more than a solid bullpen and oh yeah the best offense in baseball. At this point all the Rangers need to do is stand pat; they have a good enough team to lose-er um I mean compete for a World Series.
1. New York Yankees: In the past the Yankees would have ignored the fact that they had the best record and were the hottest team in baseball and would have traded valuable prospects for one of the bigger deadline prizes. Nowadays? I just don't see that happening. The next generation of Steinbrenners appear to be a little more conservative with spending money. Cashman may make a small move at the deadline but don't expect too much noise to be made. The only problem the Yankees have may be their lack of an ace. They have five pretty good pitchers but even C.C isn't putting up a very ace-like performance this year. However I still believe they'll have a quiet deadline and attempt to find out whether or not this lack of an ace is actually a problem.
Well there you have it everyone, stay hungry my friends.
The A's will make the playoffs guaranteed
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