Week 12 Preview: What to watch and what to avoid

By this time in the season we think we’ve got it all figured out. We think we know who’s going to win MVP, we think we know which teams are going to die off and which ones will make the playoffs. However, each season the last six weeks are usually filled with surprises. The eventual Super Bowl Champion may sound crazy to us right now just as the Giants winning it all would have sounded ludicrous last year at this time. This year, more than most others, is completely wide open. There are at least 11 NFC teams that could conceivably make the playoffs while the AFC seems to be without a worthy sixth playoff team. Meanwhile, MVP is as up for grabs as it’s been in years. Therefore every week and every game is important. Nearly every game this week will have playoff implications. I’ve broken the games up into categories of how important/entertaining they’ll be.

Entertaining games with playoff implications:

Green Bay over New York (-2.5) - Week 6, the Giants had quite the impressive blow-out win over San Francisco. Since then, they haven’t impressed once. They eked out wins over the RG III led Redskins and then nearly blew a 20-point lead against the lowly Cowboys. Eli was then dominated in a close loss to Pittsburgh and a blowout-loss to the all-too average Cincinnati Bengals. In that time the Packers have won every game they’ve played and Aaron Rodgers has re-established himself as an MVP candidate. What am I missing here? Why are the Giants favored?

Tampa over Atlanta (-1) - Yes, the Falcons are 9-1 but in the last five weeks the Bucs have been the better team.  The Bucs struggled against below-average teams in Dallas and Arizona and lost to New Orleans. The Bucs have won four in a row and have scored at least 28 in their last six games. It appears the Falcons either peaked too early or were never that good to start with. Take the Bucs here and watch for them to contend for the division title down the stretch.

Indianapolis over Buffalo (+3)- Make no mistake, this game will be entertaining. Save for New Orleans, these are the two worst secondaries in the NFL.  Rookie Andrew Luck should have no trouble throwing the ball all over the likes of Justin Rogers and Leodis McKelvin. However, Fitzpatrick’s play has improved of late and that should continue against an equally terrible Colt’s secondary. Look for an offensive bloodbath here. However the Colt’s intangible advantage (Luck over Gailey) should be enough for them to claim victorious.

San Francisco over New Orleans (No line)- New Orleans has been warm lately as they’ve won five of their past six. Meanwhile the 49ers just put a good old fashioned ass whoopin’ on one of the NFL’s best teams. It’s tough for me to see the 49er’s losing this one. Side note: A sixth loss essentially eliminates New Orleans in the ultra-competitive NFC.

Not super important but worth the watch for train wreck-type effect games:

Carolina over Philadelphia (-2.5)-  This could finally be it; the breaking point for Philadelphia Eagles fans. The Philly fans are not known for their patience and a seven game losing streak might be just the thing to convince management that it’s time to move on from the Andy Reid era. On the other side of things, it’s not yet time for Panthers fans to start panicking about this Newton situation. This sophomore slump was predicted by nearly every pundit and doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t be a pro-bowler again soon. With new management, Newton deserves another year before panic sets in.

Baltimore over San Diego (+1)-  Phillip Rivers walked off the field in disgust last week after yet another sub-par performance. A loss would all but guarantee a third consecutive playoff-free January which would likely spell the end of the Norv Turner era. A blowout at the hands of the Ravens could be the game where Rivers walks off the field and punches Turner in the face or something of that variety. This game will be impossible to look away from just because of that distinct possibility.

Denver over Kansas City (+10.5)- I see the game playing out a little like this: Peyton Manning and the Broncos start slow allowing a Jamaal Charles led Chiefs attack to jump out to an early lead. After a few Romeo Crennel miscues, poor play calls and some general terribleness; the Broncos will work their way back by halftime. The Chiefs will completely implode in the second half allowing Manning and Co. to pad their stats and finish with something like a 45-10 victory. Then Chief’s fans will say funny and sad things on Twitter. Sound familiar?

Not so entertaining but still important games:

Chicago over Minnesota (No line)-   If Cutler is out again I could really see Minnesota winning. A victory by the Vikings would launch them back into the playoff race while moving Chicago back into the middle of the pack; a place that seemed so far away just two weeks ago. With Cutler playing, I’d give the slight advantage to Chicago (which would also knock Minnesota out of the playoff race entirely). But the most important matchup of this game is Peterson vs. the Bear’s D. A solid performance by Peterson could take some heat off Ponder which could very well decide the outcome. But, in the end, it’s hard for me to see this team allowing great starts to fall by the way side two years in a row.  

Cincinnati over Oakland (+8) - The only reason this game is important is because Cincy is somehow challenging for a playoff spot. Big Ben’s injury and Indy’s uncertainty on defense have opened a major hole in the AFC wild card. Normally I would be scared off by the eight-point line but the Raiders have been a special kind of terrible lately. Look for a big Cincy win, an AJ Green touchdown (of course) and beware of the Bengals down the stretch. They could be sneaking into a second consecutive, undeserved playoff spot.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland (No line)-  Big Ben likely won’t be suiting up this Sunday as America’s favorite back-up returns. Charlie Batch will lead the Steelers against the division-rival Browns as they hope to hold on to their coveted wild-card spot. Cleveland has looked impressive all season but they’re also 2-8. I’d expect a close game here with a few key mistakes by Shurmur to throw the game in Pittsburgh’s favor.

Seattle over Miami (+3)-  Seattle hasn’t been great on the road but they need this game if they want to keep contending for a playoff spot. On the other side of things, Tannehill and the Dolphins have completely fallen out of the playoff race in the past few weeks. Neither team can throw the ball very well and neither plays a very exciting brand of football. Expect a low-scoring affair here.

Life’s too short to watch these games:

Jacksonville over Tennessee (-3)- By some miracle, Tennessee is still in the playoff race. In keeping with the strangeness that has surrounded them all season, the Titans will fall out of the playoff race after an upset loss to Chad Henne and the Jaguars. Related note: If I’m in charge of the Jaguars and I don’t love any of the prospects coming out, I might give Henne a shot for even just one year. He awoke the offense and finally got blue-chipped Justin Blackmon involved. It could be worth a shot, maybe just for one year.

St. Louis over Arizona (-2)- After a promising 4-0 start, the Cardinals are mired in a three-way quarterback controversy involving  a Fordham grad and a guy named Lindley. Man, what a mess. Meanwhile, St. Louis is still having trouble deciding if they’re a team you don’t want to play yet while Sam Bradford is deciding whether or not he wants to be a starting quarterback next year. Again, what a mess.

Stay Hungry My Friends.