The Cincinnati Reds have now won 22 of their last 25 games and have the best record in baseball. This is amazing considering they're doing all this without their best player/NL MVP candidate Joey Votto. Beyond him, they don't have much in terms of great hitters. With him out of the line-up Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Ryan Ludwick and Todd Frazier are the only hitters that are at least average. The return of Votto next week could do wonders for the line-up. But pitching is where the Reds make their money. Ace Johnny Cueto has won all of his last five starts and is quickly becoming one of the better pitchers in baseball. He's now 14-5 with a 2.52 e.r.a. The staff in general has now weak spots as Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and Mat Latos have all held their own. Then of course, there's the bullpen. Lead by flamethrower Aroldis Chapman, this is one of the best bullpens in the league. They have five pitchers who have thrown over 40 in relief with less than a 3 e.r.a. Their incredible pitching staff may have been bolstered even more with the deadline addition of reliever Jon Broxton. Could we be headed for a third straight surprise NL World Series Champion? It looks like a possibility.
Ever since his appearance on the cover of Sports Illustrated at the age of 16, people have been anxiously awaiting the arrival of Bryce Harper. Yes he's been playng for most of the year but he hasn't really arrived yet, at least not in the way he was expected to. It's hard to blame him for that. He's still a rookie and a teenager. Plus it's not like he's playing poorly; he has 10 home runs, 30 RBI's, and 13 stolen bases with a line of .257/,330/.424. Normally this would be good enough to be the best rookie in baseball, not this year. There's another player putting up historically good numbers who also can't legally drink alcohol yet. Mike Trout was called up in late April to an underachieving Angels team. Since then they've been one of the best teams in baseball; led by Trout's incredible numbers. He's currently leading the AL in batting average at .348, stolen bases at 33, and is leading the entire league in wins above replacement with 7.3. His hitting line is currently .348/.410/.601 with an OPS over 1.000. Trout has also shown flashed of power (19 home runs, 57 RBI) and fielding prowess (appearing weekly on Baseball Tonight's Web Gem segment). What we're witnessing is truly extraordinary. If you stretch out his number to a full season, he's still a .350 hitter with roughly a 1.000 OPS but he'd hit about 30 home runs, 100 R.B.I's and steal around 50 bases. All while still being one of the league's best fielding outfielders. Oh yeah and he's 20. The sky is really the limit for this kid.
American League Divisional/Wild Card Races
AL East:
Favorite: New York Yankees- The Yankees had a bit of a slide recently, losing 9 of 12 but they appear to be getting their footing again. It's hard to envision a scenario where the Yankees don't win the AL East. Boston and Toronto just haven't been able to figure out their pitching situations all season while Baltimore is destined to fall off at some point. The only way they don't win is....
Challengers: Tampa Bay- Left for dead just a few weeks ago, Tampa is now only 6.5 games behind the Yankees. If New York continues to lose and some of Tampa's disappoinments start to play up to expectation, Tampa has a slight chance to win the AL East. This is very unlikely but anything can happen in the final two months. No one knows that better than the Rays and of course the Red Sox.
AL Central:
Favorite: Chicago- If the White Sox hope to win the division, they'll need to get solid pitching performances out Francisco Liriano and Gavin Floyd down the stretch. Jake Peavy and Chris Sale had been dominant for much of the season but have stumbled a bit of late. If they can get solid performances out of all four, they are almost guarenteed to win the division.
Challenger: Detriot- The Tigers are catching their stride again after losing six of eight. They're still only a game and a half back of Chicago and have just as good of a chance of taking the division. Austin Jackson, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder are as good of a three headed monster as there is in baseball. But the rest of the line-up has been umm...less than impressive. They need at least one other guy in their line-up to step up if they hope to take a run at the division. Perhaps it could be suprise star of last year; Alex Avila or one of their many other disappointments(Young,Peralta, Boesch). The next seven games are huge for Detroit as they take on the Yankees and the Rangers. This would be a perfect time for them to establish themselves as contenders. If not this could be a long offseason for the sexy World Series pick of this offseason.
AL West
Favorite: Texas- The Rangers are up 5.5 games on the A's and 6 on the Angels and are starting to look like a lock to win the division after the acqusition of Ryan Dempster. The only concern they have is with Yu Darvish. It appears as though he's being "figured out" by oppossing teams. He's 5-6 since mid-May and his e.r.a has steadily increased all year to 4.38 now. Another concern may be Ryan Dempster who was shelled in his first start just as Oswalt was in a few of his starts. However we'll likely need a larger sample size to decide if this was a good signing or not. Overall, the starters beyond Matt Harrison may be the only concern for this Texas team.
Challengers: Los Angeles and Oakland
The Angels pose the larger threat to Texas in this divisional race. The Angels now have three aces (Weaver, Greinke, Wilson) to go along with their overpaid 4th and 5th starters. They line-up includes some of the most dangerous hitters in baseball (Trout, Trumbo, Pujols) and a few other solid ones (Morales, Hunter, Kendrick). Even if they don't catch up with Texas, they will likely grab the top wild card spot.
After an incredible run, the A's seem to have come back down to Earth. I don't see them making a run at the division this year but.....
Wild Card:
Lock: Angels(or Rangers if the Angles take the division)
Challengers for the second spot
1. Oakland: The A's are the favorite to grab the second wild card spot and take on the Angels in a one game playoff. They have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball and a sneakily good offense(Josh Reddick has a top-12 WAR in the entire MLB). If they can just continue to do what they've done in the last month they're a lock to play in October.
2.Tampa Bay: The Rays have been playing a bit better of late and have all the talent and leadership(Joe Maddon) to be the most dangerous team in the wild card. No one has suffered through injuries/general disappoinment more than the Rays this year. Zobrist, Pena, Scott, and Upton have all underachieved mightily this year while Evan Longoria has barely played due to injury. The pitching staff hasn't played up to par either. David Price has been his usual dominant self but Hellickson, Moore, and Shields haven't pitched as well as hoped. Perhaps 2012 isn't Tampa's year, but if just a few of these guys get going, watch out. This team could be as dangerous as anyone.
3. Detroit/ Chicago: Same goes for what I said above if either of these teams wants to grab the second wild card spot. It's tough for me to envision a scenario where one of these teams doesn't win the division but well enough to win the wild card. The next two months will show us if this is possible.
4. Baltimore This is where we start getting to the reaches. Baltimore is already winning more games than they should be and now they're going to have to get better? I just don't see them suddenly outplaying Oakland, Chicago, Detroit, and Tampa Bay for the next two months. In fact, I see them going in the other direction.
Look for the NL Divisional Races breakdown next week. Stay Hungry My Friends.
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