Monday, August 20, 2012

FOOTBALL!: Ten Big Predictions for the 2012 Season

1. A two or three seed will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl:
I know what you're thinking....who cares? A two or three seed probably represents their conference in the Super Bowl all the time. Except the Giants and the Packers were both six seeds, the Saints were the top seed, the Warner-led miracle Cardinals were a four, the first version of the Giants were a five, the forgotten Bears and Seahawks were both one seeds, as were the T.O/McNabb Eagles.  The Carolina Panthers (2003) and Tampa Bay Bucs (2002) were the last three and two seeds respectively. So why has this trend occured? I'd chalk it up to playoff randomness. But all randomness must come to an end eventually and this will be that year.

2. Tom Brady will lose his 40th career game:
I know what you're thinking; Tom Brady? he's been around forever! there's no way he hasn't lost 40 games yet! If he hasn't, he must be so close that this isn't worth writing...right? Wrong, he's at 35 career losses and has only lost five regular season games in the last two seasons combined. Yes, this will be his eleventh season as a full time starter.Yes the Patriots have one of the best teams in the league and have the easiest schedule for seemingly the 10 season in a row. But teams don't win 12 or more so games in three straight seasons. Even the Mighty Patriots have never done it. Eventually injuries and luck will catch up with you and this is that year. This the year the Patriots go 11-5, Brady loses his 40th game, and they still win the AFC East.

3. The New York Giants will miss the playoffs:
Imagine a team goes 9-7 but has a negative point differential. Their quarterback, top receiver, and best defensive player just had their best seasons ever by far and seem like canidates for regression. They also lost their number two receiver and running back and have a decently tough schedule. Does that sound like a playoff team to you? Yeah me neither.

4. There will be a surprise division winner....and it will be the Chicago Bears:
Overshadowed by Caleb Hanie single handedly ruining the season for the Bears last year was the Bears 7-3 start and firm place atop the wild card. It now seems people are putting more emphasis on their finish rather than their start. They'll have a healthy Jay Cutler and Matt Forte this year and added contraversial receiver Brandon Marshall in the offseason. The same Marshall who had multiple 100 catch seasons while working with Cutler in Denver. He should add a whole new dimension to their offense as the Julius Peppers led defense should be as strong as usual. Meanwhile, the Packers will not win 15 games again. Just as the Bears are likely to improve, the Packers are likely to regress a bit. The NFC North will be the Bear's division in 2012.

5. You will re-learn to respect Josh Freeman by mid-season:
After a monster 2010 campaign (25 touchdowns, 6 ints), Freeman had somewhat of a rough 2011 (16td, 22ints). Much of this regression can be chalked up to worse luck, a tougher schedule, and possibly an injury. Make no mistake though, this will not continue into 2012. Freeman is a franchise quarterback and it will begin to show again this year. Freeman now has a new head coach (Greg Schiano) and a stud #1 receiver in Vincent Jackson. Look for some improvement by Freeman and all his Tampa teammates in 2012.

6. By season's end Larry Fitzgerald will have the 3rd most career yards for active receivers(at age 29):
For this prediction to become reality a few things need to happen. First off Hines Ward and Derrick Mason need to stay retired or at least unsigned. Secondly, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss both need to flop this season and be cut/retired after the season. Chad Johnson needs to remain unsigned while Tony Gonzalez will also need to retire(not a huge stretch for a 36 year old). Then Fitzgerald will have to amass 400 more yards than Donald Driver this season and 41 more than Andre Johnson. This will leave Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith as the only active receivers with more yards than Fitzgerald. Furthermore, a 1400 yard season(reasonable enough total) would put him 26th all time. By the time he's done he could  surpassed everyone not named Jerry Rice.
7. One "big time" acquisition won't pan out and it will be Brandon Lloyd:
Lloyd had a huge season two years ago in Denver and many are wondering if he might be able to top that in New England. The short answer: no. First of all the terrifying trio of Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Welker all attract too much attention inside for Brady to consistently look outside. Second we've seen this tried before (Galloway, Tate, Ochocinco) and the only reason Randy Moss worked was because he is truly a superhuman talent. I'm not saying Lloyd won't be servicable or that he'll be bad; i'm saying he won't be as much of a factor as people are making him out to be.

8. The Houston Texans will have their best season in franchise history:
The Texans started out hot at 7-3 last year before losing quarterback Matt Schaub to a season ending injury. Then, despite starting rookie 5th round pick TJ Yates, they nearly upset the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs. This year Schaub is back, Wade Phillips is running the defense, Andre Johnson is healthy again, and they have the most dangerous running game in football (Foster and Tate). Yes, this year I'm predicting they go at least 11-5 and appear in their first AFC Championship game.
9: The Bengals will start off hot only to miss the playoffs:
This is basically what happened last year until the Jets and Titans decided they didn't really feel like going to the playoffs. But this year the NFL has frontloaded the Bengals schedule to almost a cruel degree. Early in the season they play Cleveland twice, Washington Jacksonville, and Miami. This all changes starting with week 7. They are then slated to play Pittsburgh, Denver, New York Giants, Kansas City, and Oakland. Not a killer stretch by any means but there's no cream puffs or easy wins either. Then december comes; they play San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. Yup, enjoy your January off Bengals.
10: A Quarterback not named Brady, Manning, or Roethlisberger will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl:
Last time this happened I was a 4th grader having his heart broken by a dismal Rich Gannon performance in the Super Bowl. Since then Manning, Brady, and Roethlisberger have taken turns at AFC Supremecy. They've even each taken turns losing the last three Super Bowls. This year will be different however. Manning is a huge question mark and Denver just isn't good enough to get to the Super Bowl. Roethlisberger and the Steelers showed their vulnerability last year and are one year older in 2012. That leaves Brady and the Patriots against the field. I'll take those odds.

Stay Hungry My Friends

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