Last week we discussed the American League's divisional and wild card races. This week, we dissect the National League races.
NL East:
Favorite: Washington- The Nats have become the best team in baseball over the past month. They've won 18 of 23 and they now have an offense that can score with anyone to go with their impossibly good pitching staff. Bryce Harper is slumping? No matter, Ryan Zimmerman has improved greatly in the past two months, Adam LaRoche is now a bona fide slugger, and Jayson Werth has returned(albeit he's day to day with another injury now). Then of course you have their pitching staff. Edwin Jackson has a 3.74 e.r.a and a 1.21 WHIP.....and he's their worst starter. Even if Strasburg gets benched, this is the best pitching staff by far. But they still shouldn't bench him. This the WORLD SERIES we're talking about. I know it seems like they're going to have a lot of chances at it, but you never know. Either way, they're almost sure to win the NL East.
Challenger: Atlanta- There's a reason why it says almost in the above sentence. Despite the Nationals being the hottest team in baseball, the Braves have managed to stay within five games of them. Atlanta has the 2nd best offense in the NL with no stars, just a bunch of above average guys. Somehow Reed Johnson makes them even better. Still it's difficult to see the Braves catching Washington unless something drastically bad happens to the Nationals. Atlanta should have their eye on a wild card spot.
NL Central:
Favorite: Cincinnati- After one of the best streaks of the season (taking 22 of 25), the Reds have come back down to Earth and are even struggling a bit on offense. While they still have some of the best pitching in baseball, not grabbing a bat at the deadline may come back to haunt them. Joey Votto recently had a setback and will likely be out even longer. Despite missing over 30 games, he has double the wins above replacement of anyone else in the line-up. But they do have a five game division lead over the slumping Pirates and will likely play into October.
Challengers-Pittsburgh- The Pirates were the feel good story of the year. Now it appears they could be headed for a fate similar to 2011. They're 6-9 in their last 15 and ace James McDonald has really cooled down since the all star break. Luckily for them Cincy isn't exactly hot right now either. But they should be worried about who's lurking from behind.
St. Louis- So what team is this year's Cardinals? How about the Cardinals? They're still sitting tight in 3rd place in the NL Central, seven games behind the Reds. But they have the best offense in the NL and the 2nd best run differential. They're good enough to take off at any moment and they have all the talent to win the World Series. Watch out NL, these guys are dangerous.
NL West:
San Francisco: There's no real favorite in the West as the Giants and the Dodgers are tied and no team is really hotter than the other. But I like the Giants to win the West. The pitching is fairly even but San Franciso has a better line-up. Buster Posey is playing as well as anyone right now and is by far the best hitting catcher in baseball. The Giants have been there before and have the aces to win games down the stretch.
Los Angeles: LA overachieved for most of the season but they were very active at the deadline and now have a good enough line-up to make a playoff run. They now have seven legitimate hitters in their line-up and a pretty good staff. They do have all the potential to take the division, especially if Lincecum falls back into his early season form.
Arizona: If the St. Louis doesn't take off soon, the D-Backs could be this year's Cardinals. They're only 4.5 games out of first place right now and they have the talent to make a run. Paul Goldschmidt, Jason Kubel, Miguel Montero, Aaron Hill, and Justin Upton is as good as a middle of a line-up as there is in baseball. They also have four solid starters in Miley, Saunders, Cahill, and Kennedy. This Diamonbacks are as likely as anyone to make a run this fall.
Wild Card:
Favorites: Atlanta: If they don't have a major run to catch the Nats in them, the Braves should be favorites to grab a wild card spot. Remember though, they were also in position to do so last year. I doubt they would collapse like that again. They aren't the Mets after all.
Pittsburgh: Right now the Pirates are in position to win a wild card spot and make the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. They've slowed down a bit of late. Is there offense good enough to hold up over the next two months? Does Burnett have what it takes to be ace for a playoff team down the stretch? The Pirates will likely pull out all the stops in an effort to play into October this year and for that reason I think they'll grab this second wild card spot and face off against Atlanta in a one game playoff.
Challengers:
LA/San Fran: Whoever loses the race for the NL West will still be fighting for a wild card spot. It seems that this team will win about 88-90 games. This may be enough to sneak in if one of the other two teams falls off. But that all depends on the next two teams.
St. Louis: As I said above, the Cards are good enough to win the World Series if they make the playoffs. All it takes is to grab the second wild card spot. In fact, they barely made the playoffs as a wild card team last year.
Arizona: The D-Backs have been warm for the last few weeks but will need to keep winning consistently if they hope to play into October. Time is running out for the defending champs but they aren't all that far out of the race. Watch out for these two teams.
Stay Hungry My Friends.
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