This year’s NBA
Conference Finals have thus far been quite surprising in how the series are
going. Both of my predictions are
already off and actually both teams that I had losing the series are now ahead
and have the opportunity to close out the series with a game at home. I am personally stunned over the developments
in these two series, as I thought San Antonio would win in 5, and the Heat
would win in 6. However the play of the
Celtics and Oklahoma City has prevented that scenario from happening as those
two teams are on course to go against one another in the NBA Finals.
While I may be in
the minority on this the more stunning development of the playoffs has been
that the San Antonio Spurs have now lost 3 consecutive games and are on the
brink of elimination. Seeing this team
play like they did in the regular season and in the first 10 games of the post
season they seemed like an unbeatable and unstoppable force. Then they began playing games in Oklahoma
City and everything seemed to change. To
me what has happened in this series has come down to 3 important factors:
1.
Oklahoma City’s emergence
Right now Oklahoma City is playing the best
basketball that this franchise has ever played.
They are scoring at an insane rate, Kevin Durant has seemed to emerge as
basketball’s ultimate “closer” and their role players are playing
outstanding. This series is just as much
about how well Oklahoma City is playing, possibly even more so than how San
Antonio is playing. If Oklahoma City
wins this series it will be because they were the better team and won this
series, not that San Antonio lost it.
2.
Tim Duncan
Before this series Tim Duncan had looked the best he
had in years and was the Spurs most important player whose play more than
anyone was integral to their success.
However until the 4th quarter of game 5 where he seemed to
finally turn back into the player he can be, Duncan has looked old. He hasn’t been nearly as effective
offensively, and defensively he has been slower on rotations and unable to
protect the paint as well. If the Spurs
are going to come back then Duncan will have to start becoming a dominant post
presence offensively and defensively.
3.
San Antonio’s role players
The most disappointing part for me of this series is
how poorly San Antonio’s players that aren’t the Big 3 or Stephen Jackson have
played in this series. Gary Neal, Matt
Bonner, and Danny Green especially have been poor for most of the series and
been unable to provide the floor spacing that San Antonio needs if it is going
to be effective. Those players are going
to have to start making shots and being productive if the Spurs want to
succeed.
I do believe that the Spurs still have a chance in
this series. While OKC is playing
amazing basketball, I still believe the Spurs can play a little bit
better. They have a tough task ahead of
them, but I think it would be idiotic to count out any team who has leaders
like Greg Popovich and Tim Duncan and that there is a good chance we haven’t
heard the last of this year’s Spurs.
The Eastern Conference series I find to be just as
surprising but watching the two teams play I am not sure that I should be. I will admit after watching Game 2 of this
series though I thought that the Celtics were done and that we had a potential
sweep on our hands. I thought Rondo
played the greatest game of his life and really what was the best individual
performance of the entire NBA season and that Boston put everything they had
into that game and they wouldn’t be able to put forth enough energy to summon a
fight. To my surprise Boston hasn’t just
put up a fight they have won three games in a row to take control of this
series. I see 3 major factors in why
Boston has been able to take control of this series:
1.
Rajon Rondo
After his Game 2 performance Rondo has ever cemented
himself in Boston sports as an all-time performer and great player. His play this entire postseason has been
phenomenal, but especially in this series where there are moments in each game
where Rajon Rondo looks like the best player on the floor and in a series where
the opposing team has Lebron James and Dwayne Wade it is key to have a player
of those capabilities. Rondo since his
epic Game 2 performance though has been a consistent performer who is able to
control the ball with 38 assists in the past 3 games he has been able to get
easy buckets for Boston. Even in a poor
shooting night like Game 5 his imprint is all over the game as he finished with
6 rebounds, 13 assists, and 4 steals.
2.
Kevin Garnett
The resurgence of Garnett this post season has truly
been remarkable. KG this postseason has
become 2008 KG who can completely dominate a game from the defensive end. To give you an example of Garnett’s impact on
defense, courtesy of NBA.com’s Advanced Stats, this series when Garnett is off
the floor Miami scores 120.7 points per 100 possessions, and when he is on the
floor they score 96.3. That is a huge
impact the difference between the top offense in the NBA the Spurs and the
worst offense the Bobcats was 16.3. That
means the difference between the Celtics with KG and without KG defensively is
more significant than the Spurs offense and the Bobcats offense.
3.
Miami’s Health
The injury to Chris Bosh has been integral to the
flow of this series as it allows KG to stay in the paint and only worry about
Lebron or Wade beating them there. They
miss the floor spacing that Bosh provides and his ability to force KG out of
the paint to defend him. More
importantly though I think they miss a 100% Dwayne Wade. Throughout the series Wade has played well in
spurts but hasn’t really been the player that we are used to seeing. He doesn’t have his normal explosiveness and
in Crunch Time he has truly struggled taking and missing poor shots while being
unable to set up open shots for others. Really
this series to me has more been about Wade’s struggles then any struggles of
Lebron. While Lebron has made a few poor
decisions in crunch time, Wade has struggled immensely there and throughout the
series while Lebron has been his usual dominant self.
This series between the Heat and Celtics has been
shocking to say the least but to me when looked at logically makes a lot of
sense. Really if not for a few poor
calls in Game 2 you could easily make the case that Boston could have just won
the series with Game 5 and won 4 games in a row. What it is going to take for Miami to come
back is Wade to turn back into his normal self and for Bosh to play well in
increased minutes. Boston though seems
to really have broken the will of the Heat and taken control in this series,
the only reason I wouldn’t call the series over is that I never think it is a
good idea to count a team out when they have the two best players in the series
who have the ability to take over at any time.
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