The Game of the Year

Image courtesy of csnne.org

“Oh no, here we go again.”

That’s what must have gone through the mind of nearly every Penguins fan last night when David Krejci (or Jesus Christ himself, depending on who you ask) scored to give Boston a 1-0 lead less than two minutes into the first period. Boston had gotten on the score sheet early in each of the first two games of the series, which they went on to win a combined 9-1.

For the first few minutes of last night’s game, I began to think about Pittsbugh first round tilt against the Flyers last year. Pittsburgh did not, and does not, back down from the physicality of the playoffs. Instead, as if they’re trying to shed some unearned reputation as soft, they become the aggressor and completely lose the style of play that has made them so successful.

 Last year against the Flyers was more disgrace than hockey. The fights and constant questionable hits weren’t the issue; the fact that they took precedent over the actual game was. We were subject to a series of 9-3 and 7-4 games. The Penguins fell to a lesser Flyers team in six games.

Thoughts of that series were evoked during this year’s first-round matchup against the Islanders. Pittsburgh gave up far too many breakaways, rushes and clean looks at the net to the upstart Islanders. After game four, with the series tied 2-2, coach Dan Bylsma subbed out struggling net minder Marc-Andre Fleury for veteran journeyman Tomas Vokoun. The Pens won games five and six and then easily dispatched of the Senators in five games. In games four and five, the Penguins tallied 13 goals changing the narrative to focusing more on their potent offense rather than their defensive shortcomings.

This series was supposed to be epic. It was supposed a duel between the most dangerous offense the league had seen in 20 years and tough, physical defensive team with all-World stoppers on offense (Bergeron), defense (Chara) and in net (Rask). We were supposed to find out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.

So, one couldn’t help but feel slightly disappointed watching Krejci celebrate his goal early in game three. The Penguins had totally folded once again. Just like in 2011 against Tampa and last year against Philadelphia.

Soon would come more Boston goals followed by some questionable hits and then the obligatory brawl. People would lament Crosby’s role in it as though he wasn’t just one of many frustrated Penguins. Where was the resilient Pens team from 2008 and 2009? The one that wouldn’t let historically good Detroit teams off the hook without a fight. The one that defied the odds and erased a 3-2 deficit, capping off the comeback with win at Joe Louis Arena. Where were those guys?

But to surprise and pleasure of nearly every hockey fan outside of Massachusetts, the Penguins didn’t follow the path they had so many times in the past few years.

They didn’t falter, they didn’t panic, they didn’t give up on the game. Unlike so many fickle fans, the Penguins realized they were only down one goal and continued to fight. They controlled the flow of the game, challenged Rask, fore-checked and at the end of the first, they were out-shooting and out-playing a Boston team that had dominated the first two games.

This pressure in the offensive zone continued for the Pens into the second period. It wasn’t long before Chris Kunitz finally beat Rask and put the Penguins on the board.

The rest of the game was a blur of seeing-eye passes, physical finishes, incredible scoring chances and even more impressive saves. Somewhere around the end of the second period the announcers, fans and the Twitterverse realized just how incredible this game was.

The Penguins continued to play this way throughout the third period; the blended passion, skill and intelligence into a brand of hockey seen only once every few years. The desperation they showed was appropriate for a team fighting for its playoff life. They didn’t back down from any shots that needed to be blocked and they treated each rebound as if it were their last opportunity to score.

Boston played with a similar abandon. They were physical as always, their penalty kill was indescribably good and they too seemed to fighting as though it was game seven (it wasn’t close for them). In fact, they were so convinced they needed to win, forward Gregory Campbell stayed out for 30 seconds on a penalty kill after breaking his leg.

Against all reason and logic, this type of intense play continued for both team into overtime. Both teams took multiple penalties and both penalty kill units were too tough to beat (or maybe Boston’s powerplay just makes Pitt’s penalty kill look like that).

By 12:15 a.m., it was clear this was no ordinary double overtime game. Sports writers from all backgrounds that cover all different sports were urging Twitter followers to tune into the game to see the finish. Bill Simmons wondered aloud (on Twitter) whether this may be the best sporting event of 2013.

It seemed for a brief moment that hockey was the most important sport in the World. All eyes were on this game, the NBA still a day away from the finals, the MLB and NFL barely existed last night.

Then a Patrice Bergeron deflection ended that moment. The re-direct from a Brad Marchand pass was too quick and skillful for Vokoun to have a chance at.

Moment: over. The three major sports re-claimed their spot at the top of everyone’s minds and the Penguins headed back to whatever hotel they’re lodging in down 3-0 in the series; all but done.

Just like that we’re back to reality of a likely short and not-as-competitive-as-expected conference final.

Bergeron’s deflection destroyed the hope of a long conference final series but did nothing to lessen the entertainment value of this game.

Long after these players have retired and people have stopped incessantly criticizing Crosby and the Penguins, this game will live on in the memory of every fan who was lucky enough to have witnessed it. 

Stay hungry, my friends

Heat VS Spurs: Finals Prediction

                                         (Image courtesy of nba.com)

            Are you excited?  Well I sure am, the Miami Heat are taking on the San Antonio Spurs in what could potentially be an all-time great NBA Finals.  You have two teams who are trying to prove themselves as a dynasty.  The Miami Heat led by Lebron James who are in their 3^rd straight Finals and are looking for their 2^nd straight championship while the Tim Duncan led San Antonio Spurs are looking for their 5^th ring since he got there.  Both these teams play unique and dynamic styles that are going to be a fascinating point of comparison as the Finals progresses.  Now let’s look at who these two teams are (All stats courtesy of Basketball Reference):

Miami Heat

Regular Season Offensive Rating (Points per 100 possessions): 112.3, 2^nd in NBA

Regular Season Defensive Rating (Points allowed per 100 possessions):103.7, 9^th in NBA

Regular Season Record: 66-16, 1^st in NBA

Regular Season Pace (Possessions per game): 90.7. 23^rd in NBA

Expected Record: 62-20, 2^nd in NBA

Playoff Offensive Rating: 111.4, 1^st in NBA Playoffs

Playoff Defensive Rating: 100.4, 4^th in NBA Playoffs

Playoff Record: 12-4

Post Season Pace: 86.7, 15^th in NBA Playoffs

San Antonio Spurs

Regular Season Offensive Rating: 108.3, 7^th in NBA

Regular Season Defensive Rating: 101.6, 3^rd in NBA

Regular Season Record: 58-24, 3^rd in NBA

Regular Season Pace: 94.2, 6^th in NBA

Expected Record: 58-24, 4^th in NBA

Playoff Offensive Rating: 108.9, 2^nd in NBA Playoffs

Playoff Defensive Rating: 98.0, 1^st in NBA Playoffs

Playoff Record: 12-2

Post Season Pace: 90.0, 8^th in NBA Playoffs

            Alright so both of these teams are pretty good during the regular season and have been every bit as good if not better in the post season.  This series will produce some really interesting matchups that are going to produce an awesome series.  Now what are going to be the key stories that decide this series?

Big vs. Small:

            Will Miami return to the small ball attack that served them so well all season, the NBA’s best record, or will they be forced to play big like they did against Indiana.  Well this depends on a few players, Tiago Splitter for one.  This series Duncan is going to be guarded by a big the entire series, his offensive arsenal is much too dangerous for that not to be the case.  However if Splitter is guarded by Battier or another Miami wing then it will be his responsibility to take advantage and pound him down low.  I would expect the Spurs to run a lot of pick and rolls for Splitter and to pound him in the post to take advantage of the matchup.  Another decision Miami could make would be to only play small when Matt Bonner or Boris Diaw are on the floor.  If either of those two players are on the floor then Miami can go small with the threat of being attacked down low minimized. 

What remains to be seen though is how much Shane Battier has left in the tank.  This is a player who has been a wing his entire career and this season made the sacrifice of playing almost exclusively power forward, probably creating the most physically punishing season of his career.  That added to the fact that he then had to matchup with the physical beasts Carlos Boozer and David West in consecutive rounds took a physical toll on him.  If he is just worn down then the Heat’s hand could be forced and they will either have to go big, or play Lebron at the four and make him take the punishment. 

What remains to be scene his how the Spurs plan on attacking a small Heat team.  All season they have remained a team that didn’t attack the offensive glass, they played it safe and wanted to prevent fast break points, they ranked 29^th in the NBA in Offensive Rebound %.  However against a team that isn’t as big as them they could try to exploit that and go for more offensive rebounds, like Indiana.  The other option the Spurs have is going small themselves and playing Kawhi Leonard at the four.  This is likely a lineup that Popovich will throughout in small spurts to possibly matchup with Miami’s speed or possibly even play it when Miami goes big in attempting to leverage some matchups. 

Miami’s Offense vs. Spur’s Defense

            Well the first question is who guards Lebron James and that question is easy, Kawhi Leonard, then 2^nd question is more difficult, how?  Well Leonard will not be doing this by himself I can tell you that.  Their defensive gameplan I expect to be quite similar to Indiana’s, funnel him to the big men and force him to take contested shots or pass the ball away.  The Spurs though, aren’t as athletic or long as the Pacers and thus it will be more difficult to contest open shots, thus Miami is likely to have more open threes.  What is the real key to how Miami’s offense is going to play is Dwyane Wade.  Wade for his career has been a dynamic offensive player who is a great cutter who can really beat you in multiple ways and attack the rim.  This playoffs, likely because of age and injuries, he has not been that player.  He struggled for the entire Indiana series until game 7 and it will be quite interesting to see how the Spurs defend him.  If he is still struggling then the Spurs may cover him like they covered Tony Allen.  Basically ignoring him on the perimeter and basically daring him to take jump shots, Wade’s weakness.  Then the question of Chris Bosh, what Bosh do we see the Bosh that is an elite mid-range shooter who can beat you in multiple ways, or the tentative Bosh who is content to shoot three pointers?  If Bosh is aggressive he could try to get the Spurs in foul trouble and cause some dilemmas for Popovich.  Another important point, Miami thrives off of getting free throws, they ranked 6^th in the league at FT/FGA, but the Spurs defense doesn’t commit many fouls finishing 3^rd best in FT/FGA defense, Miami could lose some points in that matchup.  Also Lebron is amazing and is going to play amazing the real question is, can the Spurs hold him to about 50% shooting instead of the 56% shooting he had during the regular season. 

Spur’s Offense vs. Miami Defense

            The Spur’s Offense is built around passing and Tony Parker.  They offense sends Parker around multiple screens every possession as he attempts to find a way to score or set up teammates.  Whether it is through traditional pick and roll offense or more complicated attacks, the Spurs will be trying to get Parker free to unleash havoc.  Miami’s defense is about aggressive help and swarming the passing lanes attempting to force turnovers.  The Spurs were ranked 19^th in the NBA during the regular season with turnovers, but have played considerably better in the post season.  If the Spurs are able to limit turnovers then they can really take advantage of Miami’s aggressive help and possibly open up some weak side open 3 opportunities.  The Spur’s will again likely try to run a lot of pick and roll action to get Splitter and Duncan down low especially if Miami tries playing small.  The Spurs are such a good passing team that they are going to get some open looks against the aggressive Miami attack but the question remains how many.  Also the health of Chris Bosh is an underrated key defensively for the Heat; if he is playing well and healthy then he is a valuable rim protector and a much needed component of the Heat’s defense.  The x-factor may in fact be Ginobili an inconsistent player, but a dynamic playmaker that can possibly exploit some weaknesses for the Heat. 

Prediction

            Overall this series is about as tight as can be and is practically a coin flip.  The Heat are a better team on paper, but during the post season the Spurs have seemed like the better team.  The coaching edge goes slightly to Popovich, the league’s best coach, though Spoelstra is one of the league’s best as well.  However I am going with Spurs in 7 due mainly to injuries.  The Spurs are basically completely healthy while the Heat are dealing with unknowns in Wade, Bosh and Battier. 

Stay Hungry My Friends

MLB in Review: Boston Strong and Others Weak

Image courtesy of Celebritybabyscoop.com

This has been quite an unusual week in the MLB. It saw the Padres and Blue Jays play into the 17^th inning, the Mets sweep the Yankees in a four-game series and promptly get swept by the lowly Marlins and I personally sat through two separate rain delays Friday night at Progressive Field before the second inning started at 12:10 a.m. Suffice it to say it was a strange week.

This strangeness continues into the standings. The imminent failures of the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Angels could have been readily seen by anyone who was paying close enough attention. But teams like the Giants and Nationals were supposed to be impervious to struggles. Not that either team has been terrible (Nats are 28-29, Giants are 30-27) but both are causing some concern as we’re more than one-third of the way through the season.

Meanwhile the Red Sox have defied their expectations and are leading the mighty AL East. So how much of this is early season luck and is any of this sustainable? Let’s look at the numbers.

Boston 35-23 +66 run differential

As insane as it sounds, especially considering everything they’ve been through in the past 18 months, it might be time to start taking the Red Sox seriously as a contender. Their recipe for success has been pretty simple: their best players are playing to their capabilities. After a pedestrian 2012, Dustin Pedroia is back to his previous MVP-caliber level of play. He’s hitting .333/.415/.444 with eight steals and excellent defensive numbers (seventh in defensive WAR). Meanwhile, David Ortiz continues to put up incredible numbers as he moves further into his 30’s. Big Papi is batting .333/.405/.618 with 10 home runs in only 39 games. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a tad high at .328, but he’s putting together a fantastic season nonetheless.

The Sox have continued to win and score at a league best rate even through injuries to some lineup mainstays. Luckily for them, Shane Victorino, Wil Middlebrooks and Jacoby Ellsbury weren’t as crucial to the success of the offense as Ortiz, Pedroia or even Daniel Nava.

While the offense is an improvement on last year’s slightly underrated unit, the pitching staff has done a total 180. I discussed the improvement of Buchholz and Lester a few weeks ago. Buchholz (8-0, 1.62 ERA) has carried his undefeated season into June and Lester has come back to Earth but is still putting up very good numbers (6-2, 3.53 ERA). Beyond that duo, the Red Sox employ a fairly decent back-end of the rotation. Ryan Dempster has been better than his 2-6 record would indicate (4.45 ERA, 3.84 xFIP). John Lackey has been more than solid since returning from the DL and has now lowered his ERA all the way to 2.96. Lastly, Felix Doubront is continuing to recover from a rough start to put a pretty decent numbers. In the past four starts, he’s lowed his ERA nearly two full runs; he’s now down to 4.88.

Verdict: The Red Sox are for sure contenders. They have an explosive offense led by one of the league’s best all-around players. The pitching staff has continued to improve all season and appears to be enough to push them into the postseason.

San Francisco 30-27 -14 run differential

Not terrible, but not exactly what you’d expect from the defending champions. Oddly enough, they’ve done pretty well on offense but have struggled mightily pitching. And that “pretty well” has landed them as only the 14^th most productive offense in the MLB. Even worse: this appears to be their absolute potential. Sure, Buster Posey (.308/.391/.514) might be capable of a little bit more but most of the top performers are exceeding expectation and may be due for regression. It seems Marco Scutaro will be one of these guys. The 37-year-old is hitting .329/.380/.429 on the season with only 14 strikeouts in 210 at bats. But Scutaro’s .347 BABIP seems to indicate he’s headed for a second-half slide. The same goes for revelation Brandon Crawford (.291/.353/.447, .331 BABIP). Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and the rest of the offense should be good enough to maintain a league-average output. It’s the pitching staff that’s really troubling the Giants.

Just a year after riding their pitching staff to a World Series win, the Giants are 24^th in runs allowed. And there are no apparent answers. Tim Lincecum is continuing to impersonate the Dontrelle Willis career arc, Ryan Vogelsong has been nothing short of pathetic (7.19 ERA), Matt Cain has been inexplicably terrible (5.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and most puzzling of all; Barry Zito has been the squad’s most reliable pitcher (Bumgarner has also been solid as usual).  There are no quick fixes here; advanced stats indicate nothing about positive regression (besides Vogelsong possibly slightly improving on that hideous ERA).

Verdict: San Francisco missed the playoffs in 2011 after winning it all in 2010. It seems to be a common theme for teams named the Giants (see: New York). Look for history to repeat itself if Cain can’t put an end to his struggles.

Washington 28-29 -26 run differential

Well, this is strange. The Nats were World Series favorites coming off a season that saw them post the best record in baseball. This year they’re average at pitching (10^th in runs allowed), terrible at hitting (27^th in runs scored) and barely winning.

The pitching staff, which many thought would be the best in the league, hasn’t been terrible by any stretch but has failed to meet expectation. On top of that, phenom Steven Strasburg may be injured after throwing only 37 pitches Friday (I guess the limited pitch load can’t cure all ills). Strasburg has been very good this year (2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) as has Jordan Zimmerman (2.47 ERA albeit with only 47 strikeouts). The trouble lies beyond the top two (provided that Strasburg doesn’t have a long-term injury). Gio Gonzalez has not been nearly at his 2012 Cy Young caliber level (3.64 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) while Dan Haren has been a total disaster (5.09 ERA). Hell, this back-end is such a mess, Zach Duke even started a game. Yes, that Zach Duke. The Nationals need Strasburg to make a quick recovery and Gonzalez to regain his 2012 form because this pitching staff cannot simply be average. They need to be good enough to carry the offense into the playoffs.

Train wreck. Disaster. Enough to drive a manager crazy. All these phrases accurately portray the current state of the Nationals offense. Bryce Harper hit under .200 in May and is now headed to the DL with knee injury. Jayson Werth is still working through rehab but hasn’t been all that productive in the Majors anyway. Ryan Zimmerman is putting together a respectable season (.280/ .360/.452) but isn’t quite “best player in a lineup” material. Beyond him, Ian Desmond, Adam LaRoche and Denard Span have all disappointed by having totally average campaigns thus far. None of the three have an on-base percentage above .329 and aside from LaRoche’s 10 home runs, the lineup will struggle looking for power in Harper’s absence. Oh, and those three guys are now the second, third or fourth best players in Washington’s offense. The Nationals will need to look to either Triple-A or elsewhere in the majors for hitting help.

Verdict: Unless Gonzalez can find his touch from 2012, this is a lost season for the Nationals. They’re lineup is simply atrocious.

That’s it for this week. Stay hungry, my friends. 

NHL Conference Final Mega Preview

Image courtesy of Bleacherreport.com

Only a few days after posting my divisional round preview, I posted another piece critiquing my first round picks. Essentially I was overreacting to the early stages of the series. I had picked all four series to go either six or seven games and I was surprised by the one-sidedness of the first game of every series (except Boston/New York, I predicted the Rangers would still win in seven. Oh well.). Almost immediately after I posted the article, things started to turn completely. The Senators prevailed in overtime, the Red Wings took a 3-1 lead on the Kings, the Sharks won two in a row and Boston took a 3-0 series lead. But I didn’t write another piece declaring how wrong I was. I waited it out. Lesson learned: don’t overreact to one game.

Not overreacting won’t be nearly as important when previewing the conference finals matchups. Both Boston and Pittsburgh easily dispatched of very good teams in the second round so I guess the theoretical overreactions cancelled each other out. The same goes for the negative reaction in the Western Conference Finals. Chicago and LA were the two top possession teams in the NHL this year but both looked vulnerable in the second round. Of course this doesn’t matter nearly as much as the average fan thinks it does but it’s admittedly difficult to avoid getting caught up in. Luckily, both Western series stretched to seven games so no overreaction is warranted.

Since that that’s out of the way, attention can be shifted to more important aspects of the second round of the playoffs. Ya know…like how this is the best conference finals slate in recent memory? Since the last lockout, the NHL playoffs have been entertaining and ridiculous in the first two rounds; riddled with passion, upsets, excitements and ridiculousness. That’s only fun until you get to the final four and …yikes; who the hell are these teams? Teams struggled to consistently advance in the playoffs and thus the casual fan struggled to identify teams and players to like and hate. Teams had no discernible personality or reputation because of the constantly-changing nature of the playoffs. Some fans craved the changes lest they become “bored.” (I’ve never understood why watching two mediocre teams overachieving was less boring than watching established powerhouses duke it out.) But because of this trend, we’ve been treated to some pretty awful final four slates and less-than-exhilarating Stanley Cups. At different points we saw Philly and Montreal take each other on as seven and eight seeds, Tampa freakin Bay make a conference final, Mike freakin Smith carry the Coyotes to an appearance, the Devils run to the Cup on the strength of being somewhat above-average and even a quartet of Buffalo, Anaheim, Carolina and Edmonton. Enthralling stuff.

But none of that matters this year. By any advanced or traditional statistical measurement, these are four of the best teams in the NHL. And, possibly more importantly, these are the winners of the last four Stanley Cups. We know these guys, we’ve seen them before. They are star-laden, they’re well-coached, some are physical, and some are finesse. We know this because we know these teams. We know how to criticize them and we know how to praise them. It’s been so long since this could be said about all four conference finalists that I don’t think I can imagine a comparison.

With that being said, two of these teams will be sent home after this round. They will not receive special trophies for giving the NHL a respectable conference final (but they should.) So what will it take for each team to defeat an extraordinary foe?

Image courtesy of crimespreehockey.com

Eastern Finals:

Boston will win if: Let’s make it clear here; Boston isn’t totally an underdog here and a series win wouldn’t be too much of an upset. The Bruins have been a better possession team (fourth in the NHL) than Pittsburgh (15^th) in the regular season and the playoffs. Of course, the Bruins aren’t as offensively talented as the Penguins and struggle to find their scoring touch at times (perhaps their most offensively talented player, Tyler Seguin has one goal in the playoffs).  If the Bruins win, it will be because Tuuka Rask continued his extraordinary effort in net, Zdeno Chara was able to neutralize Sidney Crosby and Patrice Bergeron played up to his Selke-style reputation. It also wouldn’t hurt if Torey Krug and David Krejci continued to channel Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito.

Pittsburgh will win if: The Penguins essentially need to play exactly how they did against Ottawa (save for a few defensive lapses) and accept that it won’t produce the same results against Tuuka Rask and Boston’s D. Crosby’s production won’t be a worry but they’ll need Letang and Malkin to continue to manufacture opportunities as they’ve done so beautifully so far in the post-season (25 assists between them in 11 games).

 The other major factor for Pittsburgh will be goaltending. If Coach Bylsma is dumb enough to put Marc-Andre Fleury back in net, the Penguins will be swept. But if Vokoun plays and performs the way he has so far (14 goals allowed in seven games), the Penguins will be a tough out.

Prediction: Bergeron, Chara and Rask need to be completely on top of their games at all times for the Bruins to win. Pittsburgh has proven in the past seven games (30 goals) that they’re fully capable of making their opponents pay for the slightest mistakes. Luckily for Boston, those three guys are about as lock-down as it gets. Look for Boston to make Pittsburgh earn every goal. Pens in seven.

Image courtesy of committedIndians.com

Western Finals:

LA will win if: For the Kings to win, they’ll likely need the Jeff Carter and Anze Kopitar types to shoot well throughout the series. Pretty oddly specific point to start with, right? Well, not really. According to HockeyProspectus, the Kings have taken the least shots at the net and have among the worst possession of all teams so far this postseason. Perhaps this is why they’re averaging only two goals per game this postseason. You can talk about Brian Elliot and Annti Niemi all you want but less possession means less shots and less shots means less goals. It’s really that simple.

The key on the other end will be for Jonathan Quick and the defense to shut down the dangerous Chicago rush much like they did to San Jose and St. Louis. The problem: Chicago is not St. Louis or San Jose. They’re a very good passing and shooting team; they’re as dangerous on rushes as anyone. On the bright side for LA, Detroit was quite effective in limiting Chicago’s ability to create space and find open shots. The Kings would be wise to study film of that series to emulate the Wings.

Chicago will win if: The Kings will stand almost no chance against the Blackhawks if they dominate possession the way they did at times against Detroit (games one and five). However, the Hawks did not dominate like that most of the series and the Kings are a better team than the Wings. Another concern for Chicago has been the play of their “best” players. Captain Jonathan Toews has been totally failed to produce and Pat Kane, although he has nine points in 12 games, has a tendency to totally disappear at times. On a positive note, their league-best defense shouldn’t have much trouble shutting down what’s been an underwhelming LA attack.

The X-factor for Chicago may be goalie Corey Crawford. Crawford has put up very good numbers all season and has continued to do so into the postseason. But shouldn’t the Chicago faithful be slightly worried about Crawford? He wasn’t totally impressive either of the last two seasons and he could very likely be a product of improved defensive play this season. As his 1.70 goals against average would indicate, he hasn’t been much of a concern for Chicago so far. But a few more goals like the game seven one against Detroit and those concern levels will rise.

Prediction: On paper, Chicago seems to have the advantage but don’t expect the Kings to go quietly into the night. They fought back from down 2-0 against the Blues and they scored two goals late in game two to defeat the Sharks which eventually swung the series. The Kings are tough, resilient and are capable of scoring timely goals. But they’re offense is too much of a concern going up against this Chicago powerhouse. Blackhawks in seven. 

Stay hungry, my friends. 

2nd Best Left

                               (image courtesy of MySanAntonio.com)

2^nd best player left in the NBA Playoffs

Right now the best player left in the NBA playoffs is quite clear, it’s the world’s greatest player, 4 time MVP Lebron James.  This cannot be debated and anyone who wants to debate this is in over their head.  However the question who the 2^nd best player left in these playoffs is quite an interesting one.  Really every team has 2 candidate who could fit the qualifications: (stats courtesy of Basketball Reference)

Dwyane Wade

Regular Season Stats: 69 Games, 34.7 MPG, 21.2 PPG, 5 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.9 SPG, .9 BPG, 2.9 TOPG, .521/.258/.725 FG/3PT/FT%, 24.0 PER, 9.6 Win Shares, .192 WS/48

Post Season Stats: 11 Games 34.5 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, .9 BPG, 2.7 TOPG, .478/.000/.676 FG/3PT/FT%, 18.5 PER, 1.1 WS, .138 WS/48

Chris Bosh

Regular Season Stats: 74 Games, 33.2 MPG, 16.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, .9 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 1.7 TOPG, .535/.284/.798 FG/3PT/FT%, 20.0 PER, 9 WS, .175 WS/48

Post Season Stats: 12 Games, 32.2 MPG, 14 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.3 APG, .7 SPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.3 TOPG, .516/.458/.676 FG/3PT/FT%, 18.6 PER, 1.5 WS, .186 WS/48

Paul George

Regular Season Stats: 79 Games, 37.6 MPG, 17.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.8 SPG, .6 BPG, 2.9 TOPG, .419/.362/.807 FG/3PT/FT%, 16.8 PER, 9 WS, .145 WS/48

Post Season Stats: 15 Games, 41.7 MPG, 19.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, .5 BPG, 3.7 TOPG, .414/.301/.730 FG/3PT/FT%, 16.7 PER, 1.6 WS, .126 WS/48

Roy Hibbert

Regular Season Stats: 79 Games, 28.7 MPG, 11.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.4 APG, .5 SPG, 2.6 BPG, 2.1 TOPG, .448/.250*/.741 FG/3PT/FT%, 17.3 PER, 6.1 WS, .129 WS/48

*Hibbert shot 1-4 from 3, so the number isn’t representative of his ability*

Post Season Stats: 15 Games, 35.7 MPG, 15.7 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.6 APG, .1 SPG, 2.3 BPG, 2.2 TOPG, .483/.000/.810 FG/3PT/FT%, 20.9 PER, 2.1 WS, .186 WS/48

Tim Duncan

Regular Season Stats: 69 Games. 30.1 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.7 APG, .7 SPG, 2.7 BPG, 2.1 TOPG, .502/.286*/.817 FG/3PT/FT%, 24.4 PER, 8.3 WS, .191 WS/48

*Was 2-7 from 3, not a representative sample*

Post Season Stats: 14 Games, 34.4 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, .9 SPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.9 TOPG, .461/.000/.797 FG/3PT/FT%, 20.3 PER, 1.5 WS, .154 WS/48

Tony Parker

Regular Season Stats: 66 Games, 32.9 MPG, 20.3 PPG, 3 RPG, 7.6 APG, .8 SPG, .1 BPG, 2.6 TOPG, .522/.353/.845 FG/3PT/FT%, 23.0 PER, 9.3 WS, .206 WS/48

Post Season Stats: 14 Games, 37 MPG, 23 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 7.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, .1 BPG, 2.7 TOPG, .475/.375/.797 FG/3PT/FT%,  24.1 PER, 2.1 WS, .194 WS/48

So looking at all of these candidates statistically a few things stand out:

·         Basing this on regular season statistics alone this would lead us to suggest that either Wade, Parker or Duncan is the best player of the bunch probably with a slight lead given to Parker

·         Basing only on post season statistics the lead would be given to Parker while Chris Bosh and Roy Hibbert offer compelling cases

However trying to piece together a case for all these players based on statistics alone isn’t smart, so what else do each of these players offer

Wade

Pros: An aggressive and efficient scorer, reliable option, able to provide above average defense, rebounding and passing at the shooting guard position

Cons: Clearly injured now and it is effecting his play, has an unreliable jumpshot that he relies on too frequently, and is known to play lazy transition defense

Bosh

Pros: One of the NBA’s great mid-range jump shooters who is able to provide important spacing.  Has adjusted well to playing out of position and is basically an irreplaceable component to Miami’s unique style.  Numbers would likely be better if he was on a worse team.

Cons: Could be a better rebounder for his position and can be pushed around by bigger players on defense. 

George

Pros:  Athletically a marvel who defends the other team’s best offensive player and is his team’s primary offensive weapon.  Can penetrate and shoot the 3 point shot and shoot the 3 point shot an important combination.  Has guarded Carmelo Anthony, Josh Smith and Lebron James about as well as they can be guarded

Cons:  Way to turnover friendly offensively, something he is working on but still needs to adjust to, and while a good offensive option his efficiency could be better. 

Hibbert

Pros: Arguably the league’s best interior defender, something that statistics don’t signify fully.  A strong post option and since recovering from injury has been a completely different player offensively. 

Cons:  Offensively his game still needs some work, has to improve as a pick and roll player, passer, and has limited offensive range.

Duncan

Pros:  Still one of the NBA’s best all-around bigs, has a solid post game, great mid-range shooter, very good passer, a very good rebounder, solid post defense and really good help defense.

Cons: Age has limited his minutes this season and has slowed him down defensively while his post-game isn’t the automatic double team it once was.

Parker

Pros: Elite offensive player, who can score at the rim efficiently, is an elite mid-range jumpshooter and great passer.  As shown in the Memphis series can take over the game scoring, 37 points in Game 4 or by passing, 18 assists in Game 2.

Cons: Limited 3 point shooter, makes them at a fairly high percentage but low volume, and defensively can be targeted. 

Basically every player has their strengths and weaknesses and has at least a small case for this spot.

Rankings:

1.       Lebron James

In case anyone forgot Lebron has this spot on cruise control, he is significantly better than any of these players and it is a waist to compare them.

2.      Tony Parker

Though he can be a liability defensively, his offensive ability more than makes up for it.  He has been consistent throughout the regular season and playoffs and is truly one of the game’s elite players.

3.      Roy Hibbert

His impact defensively can’t be understated and offensively he is no slouch either.  His early season slump seems likely to be because of injuries and if post season play is any indication he is likely getting better from here.

4.      Tim Duncan

Would be ranked higher but age and minute limits weaken his arguments.  Still per minute is the best guy on the list.

5.      Paul George

One of the NBA’s best young players, and has really broken out this post season.  However his inconsistent play prevents him from being ranked higher, though he might be closer to Lebron on this list soon.

6.      Chris Bosh

Great offensive weapon and has embraced his role completely on this elite Heat team.  However his weaknesses are still obvious and thus can’t be ranked higher.

7.      Dwyane Wade

The only reason Wade is this low is injuries, if it was just based on regular season production he would have as strong a case as anyone for the top spot.  However injuries have clearly limited him and he is not playing near his superstar level. 

Stay Hungry My Friends

MLB in Review: Central Powers Edition

Image courtesy of ChicagoNow.com

This week’s MLB in Review is heavily focused on teams from the Central divisions. Both divisions have multiple teams duking out for the top spot (one division has the obvious talent edge). I realized a few things in researching these teams. First, “Central” is a pretty loose title for both divisions. It doesn’t feel like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Cincinnati totally deserve that moniker. Secondly, I realized this would be an excellent opportunity for a Memorial Day pun. With further ado, here’s the MLB in Review: Central Powers Edition. 

(I should note I’m saving Cleveland for next week for sample size purposes.)

All stats are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. 

Motown Meanies: The Detroit Tigers can pitch. That’s why they were preseason World Series favorites and, as of Monday, are tied with St. Louis for the best run differential in baseball. Right? Well, not exactly. The Tigers haven’t pitched poorly so far, (they’re ninth in the MLB in runs allowed) but it’s been the offense that has carried this team so far.

The Tigers are first in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. Eight of their nine most used players have an OBP of .325 or higher. No one has been more responsible for this offensive revolution than Miguel Cabrera. The reigning MVP has a batting line of .379/.454/.667 with 14 home runs and a 3.5 wins above replacement. So is this type of production-for Cabrera and the Tigers-sustainable? Most likely not. Cabrera’s BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is a sky-high .394. This means his numbers will likely fall to normal MVP-type levels. Other hitters, such as the ageless Torii Hunter, have unsustainably-high peripheral numbers and should a see a decline in their current pace. However, there is at least one Tiger hitter who should see an uptick in production. Prince Fielder has an abnormally low .300 BABIP and is batting only .270.

The good news for the Tigers is there is room for improvement on the pitching front. Anibal Sanchez is putting up very good numbers despite a 5-4 record. Max Scherzer is 7-0 but his peripheral stats point to possible improvement. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 2.39 indicates his ERA of 3.42 should be lower. Some of this discrepancy is due to a poor defensive infield for Detroit. However both Scherzer and Verlander (3.36 ERA, 2.26 FIP) will see improvement soon. The question for Detroit will be whether this improvement will be enough to counteract possible regression on the hitting front.   

NL Central: Another year, another MLB season of the NL Central being the best division in baseball as May turns into June…wait, what??!! By win percentage, the Central has the three best teams in the NL and the first, third and fifth best teams in the MLB in the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates, respectively. Of course the Pirates haven’t had a winning season since the Bush administration but that has no bearing on this year’s team. That being said, the Bucs have the weakest of the three teams. They rely too heavily on their pitching staff which will rely heavily on the continued revivals of AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano, along with Jeff Locke and his almost certain regression (nearly a two point difference between his ERA and FIP). The lineup is led by superstar Andrew McCutchen and emerging star Starling Marte. Pedro Alvarez has been all power, nothing else as per usual while Neil Walker, Garrett Jones and Russell Martin have been slightly above average. Beyond that they the Pirates have almost nothing. The Pirates won’t have the pitching or hitting depth to compete with Cincinnati or St. Louis. However, they do have a chance to compete for the second Wild Card spot and will most likely break the elusive .500 barrier.

The Reds might be the most interesting team in this race. They pitch and hit at an elite level (top five in runs scored and allowed), they have the game’s best player (Joey Votto), scariest flamethrower (Aroldis Chapman), the most unlikely career year (Shin-Soo Choo)and most importantly, they just got ace Johnny Cueto back from the DL. They’re now loaded top to bottom pitching wise with the formidable five-some of Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake with a quality bullpen to boot. The offense, which should eventually feature a Todd Frazier bounce-back, is nearly equally dangerous. With an unhittable staff, quality bullpen and the World’s best hitter, these Reds are loaded up for a World Series run. But are they even good enough to win their own division?

A Sports Illustrated feature on the Cardinals this week profiled the incredible pitching legacy former coach Dave Duncan left with the Cardinals. The Red Birds seem to always have a quality staff despite injuries, aging and free-agent departures. As the article states, this may be the best pitching staff they’ve had yet. Three of their regular starters have an ERA under three while fourth man Jaime Garcia is pulling up the rear with a 3.58 (what a bum!). They may even get Jake Westbrook back from injury eventually. But even if they don’t, that foursome is good enough to heat a small country. The best on the staff so far has unquestionably been Shelby Miller. The 22-year old is only 5-3 but has an ERA of 2.02, a WHIP of .98 and strikeouts per nine innings of 9.39. He’s a candidate for Rookie of the year as well as the Cy Young.

The Cardinal offense is nothing to sneeze at either. Perhaps you’ve never heard of Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, Pete Kozma and Jon Jay. They’re four position players between the ages of 25-28 who, combined make less than one-third of what Albert Pujols does. None of these players are spectacular but all have a higher on-base percentage and offensive WAR than Pujols. Together they’ve made up for that was lost when Pujols bolted for Los Angeles.( Matt Holiday and Carlos Beltran have been pretty good too. Oh and Yadier Molina is a legitimate MVP candidate.)

This is shaping up to be quite the divisional race. While the Cards have the upper hand at the moment, the Pirates and Reds are both good enough to go on a run and win the division. We may be in for a one-game playoff between two of these teams as the wild card play-in. Hooray for the Mid-West (kinda).

 Performance of the week: The aforementioned Anibal Sanchez threw a gem Friday night. He took a no-hitter into the ninth before losing it on a Joe Mauer single up the middle. All in all, Sanchez threw a complete game shutout while allowing only one hit and three walks and struck out 12.

Game to watch: New York Mets vs. the New York Yankees Tuesday at 7 on ESPN.

If he’s cleared to pitch, Hiroki Kuroda will take on crosstown rival ace, Matt Harvey in duel that will help decide who the best pitcher in New York is (for 2013, at least).

Stay hungry, my friends.