2013-2014 Giant NBA Preview

Image courtesy of Zimbio.com

You ready for some basketball!!!!!  Well I am and because I am so excited I decided to preview the entire season right here.  Now should this piece be divided into 3 parts, most definitely, but I decided to keep it in 1 for your reading pleasure.  First I will be previewing the Eastern Conference, and then the Western and I finish the piece off by previewing the championship contenders. Enjoy!

All stats are courtesy of the wonderful website Basketball Reference

Eastern Conference

1.      Chicago Bulls

Last Season Key Stats:

Record: 45-37

Expected Record: 42-40

Offensive Rating: 103.5 (23rd of 30)

Defensive Rating: 103.2 (5th of 30)

Lost to Miami Heat in Eastern Conference Semi-Finals (5 games)

The Bulls last season fell off substantially last season, they went from having the NBA’s best record the previous 2 season to falling to the 5 seed in the East and a record barely above .500.  The simple answer would be to say that the injury to Derrick Rose was the reason for the collapse and his return should completely return the team to form.  However this fails to fully explain the decline, which many expected to be greater, considering in the 2011-12 season Rose only played in 39 of the team’s 66 games and they still finished with the best record in the NBA.  So outside of Rose’s injury the biggest reason for the decline was the bench which was arguably the best in the NBA a season before was completely depleted.  So the real question is will the return of Rose to the team, the development of Jimmy Butler and the coaching ability of Tom Thibodeau be enough to bring the team back to elite status.  I say yes.  Rose alone should be enough to carry the offense into the upper half of the league, and a defense that has a full season of Jimmy Butler in the starting lineup will return to the elite status it previously occupied.  I think that it will, I think the 5 man unit of Rose-Butler-Deng-Gibson-Noah has the potential to be the NBA’s best next season.

2.     Miami Heat

Record: 66-16

Expected Record: 62-20

Offensive Rating: 112.3 (2nd of 30)

Defensive Rating: 103.7 (8th of 30)

Won NBA Chamionship

So can the Heat 3peat?  Of all the questions dominating what seems to be a super interesting NBA season, this is the biggest one.  I think while the Heat are going to be a great team again, I think they are going to be a step down from last year’s remarkable season.  There are a few reasons for this.  Lebron is going to be the best player in basketball again but I don’t see him having the remarkable shooting season he had last year.  Even if his shooting numbers drop from .565/.406 to a still remarkable .550/.380 then you can count a few wins down for the Heat.  Their expected record was worse than their actual record, a few more wins.  The supporting cast around Lebron probably won’t be as good either; Wade probably has a season where he tries to rest for the playoffs, while Bosh seems to have leveled off as a player.  Most importantly possibly Battier physically won’t be able to last another full season as a small ball 4 guarding other team’s bigs.  He was worn down come playoff time, and because of this the Heat will likely be playing with lineups with two bigs more this season.  The only thing that could really change the ceiling of this team is a rejuvenated Greg Oden.  This man is still extremely talented and what he provides is a solid big that can provide shot blocking and phenomenal defense in limited minutes. 

3.     Indiana Pacers

Record: 49-32

Expected Record: 52-29

Offensive Rating: 104.3 (20th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 99.8 (1st of 30)

            Well this team took the Miami Heat to 7 games last season and sure look to be better this season, so what do I expect out of them this season.  Well this team certainly looks better than last year’s team with a revamped bench that now includes, Luis Scola, CJ Watson, Chris Copeland and whatever they can get out of Danny Granger.  In my opinion this bench should provide enough of a cushion so that this team which has dominated with their starting lineup but struggled with bench play could now turn their bench into a strength.  I do think though that while the bench will allow the Pacers offense to move into the top half of the league, potentially top 10 depending on the play of Roy Hibbert the defense probably moves back one or two spots in the rankings.  Indiana should be a very good regular season team, but the real question if this team is going to be good enough to come out of a stacked Eastern Conference.

4.     Brooklyn Nets

Record: 49-33

Expected Record: 46-36

Offensive Rating: 108.2 (8th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 106.2 (16th of 30)

            Well this team has quite a new look! They have a new coach in the just retired Jason Kidd, o and they may have made one or two minor offseason moves.  By that I mean they traded every single young asset they had, mainly just draft picks, to acquire Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry.  O they also may or may not have forced Andrei Kirilenko to sign with them; there is no reasonable explanation he would sign with them for so far below his actual value.  This new look Nets team which is probably the most expensive team in NBA history, they have over $100 million in salary alone, excluding their quite high luxury tax payments.  This team may not be built for the regular season but boy are they dangerous come playoff time, the starting 5 of Deron Williams-Joe Johnson-Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett-Brook Lopez has a chance to be the league’s best and considering they have a few solid bench pieces most notably the Swiss army knife of a player AK47, this team is quite dangerous come playoff time.  However I think they will limit the minutes of Pierce and Garnett quite dramatically in the regular season which is why I only see them getting the 4 seed. 

5.     Atlanta Hawks

Record: 44-38

Expected Record: 42-40

Offensive Rating: 104.8 (18th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 104.4 (9th of 30)

            Every year people forgot about the Atlanta Hawks and every season they have a surprising effective season where they are a mid-tier Eastern Conference team with potential to make a few moves.  This year I don’t expect them to be any different.  They may have lost Josh Smith but they are replacing him with free agent bargain Paul Millsap, who while maybe not equally Smith’s production will provide a fairly decent approximation.  Also they have Lou-for-one Williams coming back for a full season, a fun player and a fairly productive one.  They got a nice deal on Elton Brand, really Danny Ferry is putting together quite an intriguing team in Atlanta, there are no bad pieces, and basically everything is tradable.  Team seems very similar in makeup to the pre James Harden Rockets teams.  Also they have the perpetually underrated Al Horford on a bargain deal as he continues to be one of the best bigs, especially for his price, in the entire NBA.

6.     Detroit Pistons

Record: 29-53

Expected Record: 29-53

Offensive Rating: 103.8 (21st of 30)

Defensive Rating: 108.1 (23rd of 30)

            The Pistons are a team that is going to be quite different from the one we watched last season.  This new look Pistons team added the always interesting (aggravating) to watch Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith to the mix and look to be one of the NBA’s most intriguing teams.  With the addition of Josh Smith the Pistons now have one of the NBA’s best front courts with Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond.  If they are ever able to figure out a way for those three to play together at the same time wow this team will be dangerous.  Drummond especially, the kid has superstar potential, and in limited minutes last season played that way.  He is the early favorite for MIP and if he plays that way he could be a defensive monster.  Combining that with Josh Smith’s all around excellence, non-shot selection wise, along with the improved point guard play that should come from Brandon Jennings, the Pistons will be one of the NBA’s most improved team. 

7.     Washington Wizards

Record: 29-53

Expected Record: 33-49

Offensive Rating: 100.2 (30th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 103.0 (4th of 30)

The Washington Wizards are a team that has went all in on their quest to be eliminated in the 1^st round of the playoffs.  They just traded Emeka Okafor, a 1^st round pick in a loaded draft, and a few other players for Marcin Gortat, a trade that is a signal of the team going all in this season.  If the team is going to improve though it is going to need John Wall this season and be the player he was over the last 25 games or so.  He played like a superstar during those games, and is going to have to keep up that pace if the team wants to contend for a playoff spot.  This team though should keep its top 10 defensive ranking, it is returning most of the pieces from last year’s unit and the offense should improve with a full season of John Wall, along with an improved Bradley Beal. 

8.    New York Knicks

Record: 54-28

Expected Record: 53-29

Offensive Rating: 111.1 (3rd of 30) 

Defensive Rating: 106.3 (17th of 30)

Yes a season after the Knicks finished with the 2^nd best record in the East I believe they will barely make the playoffs as an 8 seed.  Why because I think looking at who the team lost, the track record of players on their team, and who they gained I see the team falling substantially.  What are the reasons: last season Carmelo Anthony, JR Smith had their best seasons of their career, Raymond Felton improved substantially from the year before, Jason Kidd, Steve Novak, and Chris Copeland are gone, Tyson Chandler, their best player, is injury prone, o and Andrea Bargnani and Amare Stoudemire on the same team is basically giving away points.  I think this year’s Knicks team finishes with one of the league’s worst defenses, with a roster that plays big more hence is much less effective offensively and is the NBA’s most disappointing team. 

9.     Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 38-44

Expected Record: 37-45

Offensive Rating: 103.6 (22nd of 30)

Defensive Rating: 105.2 (11th of 30)

Image courtesy of Grantland.com

            I see this Bucks team as a team that is going to be right on the edge of playoff contention, like every year.  This team will likely finish somewhere between 7th-10th in the East.  At this point though they have more hope of future success then they have had in years.  They have defensive superstar LARRY SANDERS! along with the talented John Henson and rookie Giannis Antetokounmpo, or as I will call him the Greek kid, along with his hands.  This gives them the front court with possibly the most potential in all of the NBA; also the Greek kid and his hands have the potential to be the most fun subplot in the NBA this season.

10.Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 24-58

Expected Record: 28-54

Offensive Rating: 104.3 (19th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 109.4 (26th of 30)

            The Cleveland Cavaliers are another Eastern Conference team trying to make the jump from the bottom of the conference to the playoffs.  This team has one of the NBA’s great young talents in Kyrie Irving, the 1^st pick in the draft Anthony Bennett, talented young players in Dion Waters and Tristan Thompson along with injury risks Andrew Bynum and Anderson Varejao, along with super sub Jarrett Jack.  This team should seemingly have the talent to compete for a playoff spot, but I don’t see them getting one this year.  Outside of Jack and Irving there aren’t many players that I really trust on this team.  Thompson and Waters are pretty good, not great, Bennett was quite a reach with the 1^st pick and the two bigs are way too injury prone.  Kyrie is the NBA’s next great superstar and the Cavaliers will be improved this year, I’m not sure it will be enough to make the playoffs though.

11.  Toronto Raptors

Record: 34-48

Expected Record: 37-45

Offensive Rating: 105.9 (13th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 107.5 (21st of 30)

            Toronto is one of the NBA’s more intriguing teams this season, if only because they now have Masai Ujiri as General Manager.  After building a really dangerous and superstarless Denver team I fully expect him to put his own personal touch on the team, and by that I mean trades.  This team talent wise could easily compete with many of the teams ahead of it, but this season I fully expect a combination of Rudy Gay DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry among others to be traded.  This team can go in any direction this season, and all I know for sure is that I think it will be in a smart direction as the team tries to build for the future.

12. Charlotte Bobcats

Record: 21-61

Expected Record: 17-65

Offensive Rating: 101.5 (28th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 111.5 (29th of 30)

The Bobcats seem to be finally removing themselves from total embarrassment this season to just plain old bad team, and they likely picked the wrong season to do it.  The addition of Al Jefferson, who may be horrible at defense, provides the greatest scoring threat the team has ever seen, a constant scoring threat and someone who has a chance of scoring 25 PPG this season.  They have the talented Kemba Walker, first round pick Cody Zeller, and the talented but flawed Michael Kidd Gilchrist.  This team will still be horrible defensively but the presence of Jefferson and the development of a few young players have the potential to move this team to mediocrity offensively, enough to possibly play itself out of the worst of the worst in the NBA. 

13. Boston Celtics

Record: 41-40

Expected Record: 40-41

Offensive Rating: 103.1 (24th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 103.3 (6th of 30)

            Well, why would this seemingly middle of the pack team fall all the way off to become one of the worst in the NBA?  O because they traded KG, and Paul Pierce, Rondo will be out much of the season, and Danny Ainge is trying to make the team bad! So yes I don’t think they will be good this season, but I don’t think that is a bad thing.  This team has a boatload of future picks, will have a very good pick in this year’s draft and has some pieces that they can trade to contenders for some future assets.  This team may be bad this season but long-term they will be fine.  O and anyone who thinks they won’t be bad, this team was 24^th offensively with KG and Pierce last season, and when KG wasn’t on the floor they would have had a defense that ranked 25^th in the NBA last season.

14. Orlando Magic

Record: 20-62

Expected Record: 22-60

Offensive Rating: 101.6 (27th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 109.1 (24th of 30)

            The Magic are a team with a lot of talented young players, but a team that I think will be smart enough to make sure they don’t win even with those players.  The idea of playing Victor Oladipo at point guard is genius because he gets to develop NBA skills that he normally wouldn’t have to, thus helping his long-term game while simultaneously hurting the team because it is a position he is not fit to play.  Tobias Harris, Maurice Harkless, Nic Vucevic , and Andrew Nicholson are all intriguing young players that should fit together nicely.  This team has some real talent and tanking this season for a top pick will really solidify this team’s talent base. 

15. Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 34-48

Expected Record: 31-51

Offensive Rating: 102.0 (26th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 105.7 (14th of 30)

            The leader in the clubhouse in the Riggin’ for Wiggins sweepstakes!  This team is aggressively trying to tank like no other, they really have only one clearly above average player, Thaddeus Young, and outside of that I’m not sure who will be playing well for this team.  This team has no intention of playing 1^st round pick Nerlens Noel this season as he takes his sweet time recovering from his torn ACL.  This team is set up long-term though, with Noel, the Pellies pick next season along with their own this team could become loaded with young talent quite quickly. 

Western Conference

1.      San Antonio Spurs

Record: 58-24

Expected Record: 58-24

Offensive Rating: 108.3 (7th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 101.6 (3rd of 30)

            The Spurs are going to win about 60 games every season until further notice.  Honestly with regard to the regular season I am going to keep this fairly simple.  The Spurs are basically returning last year’s team this season and any declines in play by Duncan or any of the other veterans I expect to be recovered by the growth of Kawhi Leonard’s game. 

2.     Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 56-26

Expected Record: 59-23

Offensive Rating: 110.6 (4th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 103.6 (7th of 30)

            The Clippers went through a lot of change this season, overall I’m sure it will help the team, I’m not sure they did enough to make themselves a top title contender.  They have a new coach in Doc Rivers, a substantial upgrade over Vinny Del Negro, and added JJ Reddick along with Jared Dudley.  This team really has the potential to have the best offense in the NBA.  Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are good enough by themselves, but adding the 3 point shooting of Dudley and Reddick along with a team that likely will call plays this year, wow will this offense be good.  Defensively though I’m still not 100% sure about, they played well last season, and Doc Rivers should help with that.  Come playoff time I think it will be a different story, but that is for later. 

3.     Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 60-22

Expected Record: 64-18

Offensive Rating: 112.4 (1st of 30)

Defensive Rating:  102.6 (4th of 30)

            Ok I’m going to say this; OKC is really underrated right now.  I know that without Westbrook they didn’t look great in the playoffs but guess what they still beat a pretty good Houston team and battled with a very good Memphis team.  I’m expecting Kevin Durant to put up monster numbers this season as he has a legitimate chance at an MVP.  After Westbrook comes back let’s all remember that OKC had the best record in the West and the best expected record in the entire NBA.  While they are also losing valuable contributor Kevin Martin, I still see them being a fairly dominant regular season team, especially once Westbrook comes back.  They will decline a little but they will still be very good. 

4.     Houston Rockets

Record: 45-37

Expected Record: 50-32

Offensive Rating: 109.7 (6th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 106.1 (15th of 30)

            Our long national nightmare is over! By that I mean the way too long and drawn out Dwight Howard saga is over and he is a Houston Rocket.  What does this mean for the NBA?  It means that the Rockets are a title contender and one move away from being one of the favorites to win it all.  This team has two of the top 10 players in the league in James Harden and Dwight Howard, one of the NBA’s best bargains in Chandler Parsons and a top 10 NBA rim protector in Omer Asik.  This team will have one of the NBA’s best offenses, and if they find a way to play Asik and Howard together they will have one of the NBA’s best defenses as well.  Really though I think they are one trade away and I think Daryl Morey will likely be able to make that move. 

5.     Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 56-26

Expected Record: 54-28

Offensive Rating: 104.9 (17th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 100.3 (2nd of 30)

            What I expect from this season is basically what we got from them last season; the NBA’s best or 2^nd best defense and an offense that is in the middle of the pack.  The team still has the same strengths as last year’s team, great size, and two great defensive guards in Tony Allen and Mike Conley, but the same weaknesses, absolutely no outside shooting, mainly Tony Allen.  We hear at the blog love Tony, and while I think he helps the Grizzlies more than hurts them he is an extremely limited offensive player. 

6.     Golden State Warriors

Record: 47-35

Expected Record: 44-38

Offensive Rating: 106.4 (11th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 105.5 (13th of 30)

            The Warriors are going to be so much fun to watch this season!  Steph Curry!  Klay Thompson!  Harrison Barnes!  Soooo much shooting.  They have Andrew Bogut a nice facilitator from the elbows and a solid rebounder.  David Lee is a scoring and rebounding machine even if he is a horrible defensive player.  Andre Igoudala is a shutdown wing, a facilitator a rebounder and a player who can make smart cuts and score in transition.  This team is awesome, but will they be better than last season probably not.  They lost Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry, two players who played great for the team last season so a full season out of Bogut and the addition of Iggy should help with that.  Overall this team might end up being better than last season but in a loaded West they probably won’t improve seed wise. 

7.     Dallas Mavericks

Record: 41-41

Expected Record: 39-43

Offensive Rating: 105.9 (14th of 30) 

Defensive Rating: 106.5 (18th of 30)

            I don’t even really like Dallas’ team this season, but guess what I didn’t like their team that much last season and they went .500 with a banged up Dirk who only played in 53 games.  So I’ve made a doctrine that a healthy Dirk and a Rick Carlisle will not miss the playoffs.  Honestly at this point I think Carlisle is the 2^nd best coach in the NBA and actually I don’t think it’s crazy to say he has a case as the best.  Offensively this team will score points, Dirk, Jose Calderon, Vince Carter and I guess Monta Ellis should be strong.  Defensively I would count on Carlisle scheming this team to at least mediocrity. 

8.    Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 31-51

Expected Record: 34-48

Offensive Rating: 102.9 (25th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 105.4 (12th of 30)

            Why are they going to improve so much?  No team was more plagued by injuries last season than the Timberwolves considering Pekovic played in 62 games, Rubio in 57 and Kevin Love in 18.  I thought they were a playoff team last season so if those guys stay healthy that big 3 along with the addition of sharpshooters Kevin Martin and Chase Budinger will lead this team to the playoffs.  Kevin Love was a top 5 player 2 seasons ago, Rubio is one of the NBA’s best passers and a great defensive point guard and Pekovic is a monster in the paint.  This team has too much talent to be kept down and I really expect a big step forward for them this year.

9.     Portland Trailblazers

Record: 33-49

Expected Record: 32-50

Offensive Rating: 105.8 (15th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 109.2 (25th of 30)

            Portland is another team that has the potential to really improve and possibly sneak into the playoffs next year.  Portland had maybe the worst bench in the NBA last season and replaced it with some solid role players in Thomas Robinson, Dorell Wright and Mo Williams along with rookie CJ McCollum when he recovers from his injury.  The starting five is already solid, and improvements in some of the young players should allow the team to blossom into a possible playoff team.  They have some really good offensive weapons in LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard along with good two way players in Batum, Wes Mathews and a solid center in Robin Lopez. 

10.Denver Nuggets

Record: 57-25

Expected Record: 55-27

Offensive Rating: 110.4 (5th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 105.1 (10th of 30)

            I’m not sure there is a team in the NBA who I hate what they did more than the Denver Nuggets.  For those that don’t remember I loved the Nuggets before and during last season as they were the NBA’s most fun team to watch and really really good on top of that.  They lost GM Ujiri, Coach of the Year George Karl, starters Andre Iguodala and Kousta Koufos while replacing their lost talent with some redundant options.  I just think the team offensively will struggle without Gallinari for most of the season and defensively I’m not sure how they function without Iggy or Koufos.  The frontcourt of Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee may be fun to watch but it won’t stop anyone from scoring.  I may be underrating the Nuggets just because I hate their offseason so much, but honestly I just don’t think they will be very good.

11.  New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 27-55

Expected Record: 30-52

Offensive Rating: 105.7 (16th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 110.1 (27th of 30)

            So how will the Pellies be in their first season with the new name, well based on their offseason they seem to be gunning for a playoff berth but I’m not sure they improved enough to get there.  They have talent but the question is how the talent will mesh together.  In a vacuum I like all the players they have: Jrue Holiday is a solid NBA starting point guard, even if I thought they gave up too much to get him, Nerlens Noel and a lottery pick in a loaded draft, Eric Gordon when healthy is a very good shooting guard, Tyreke Evans is a player with a lot of talent who probably works best as a 6^th man, Anthony Davis is going to be a superstar some day and Ryan Anderson is a lights out shooter as a stretch 4.  Honestly I don’t think Holiday, Gordon and Evans work that well together as ball handlers, and I don’t like the bench at all.  The reason I have them as high as I do is the teams in the West behind them aren’t very good and Anthony Davis may be very very good this year.

12. Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 45-37

Expected Record: 44-38

Offensive Rating: 107.8 (9th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 106.6 (19th of 30)

            Reasons the Lakers will struggle this year: they can’t defend anyone without Dwight Howard, Kobe is recovering from a torn Achilles a practically impossible injury to recover from at full strength, they can’t defend anyone without Dwight, and they can’t defend anyone without Dwight.  So yes defense may end up being a problem this season so despite how much I like Pau and Nash I do believe the Lakers will struggle mightily this year without Dwight or a healthy Kobe.  They have a realistic chance at being the worst defense in all of the NBA this season, without or without Kobe, who will not help his team’s defense.

13. Sacramento Kings

Record: 28-54

Expected Record: 28-54

Offensive Rating: 106.2 (12th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 111.4 (28th of 30)

            Ah the Sacramento Kings, the team that doesn’t make sense.  This team has way too many point guards and way too many power forwards but as a whole doesn’t really fit together as a basketball team.  This team led by DeMarcus “Boogie” Cousins is likely to be quite similar to last year’s team; with an offense that is in the middle of the pack in the league and one of the NBA’s worst defenses.   This team has some nice young pieces though and really this team has some long-term potential if they are able to trade for players that fit together better and the talented players they do keep, most notably Boogie develop, especially defensively. 

14. Utah Jazz

Record: 43-39

Expected Record: 41-41

Offensive Rating: 106.7 (10th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 106.8 (20th of 30)

            I will say this; of all the teams tanking this season Utah may have the most potential to actually win some ball games.  While this offseason they lost Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap two quite productive players who carried the team offensively, they are replacing them in the starting lineup with Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors.  These two talented young players have the potential to actually match the production of their predecessors’ talent wise, but for this season at least I expect them to be a step down.  Also maybe as importantly along those lines, Kanter and Favors were extremely productive for backups and they added no one who could possibly replicate their production off of the bench.  They also should be using young productive players Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks, and they also have rookie Trey Burke who will likely be productive.  However this team has absolutely no one on the bench that can really produce and given the direction they went this offseason they seem content to being toward the back of the pack in the West.

15. Phoenix Suns

Record: 25-57

Expected Record: 23-59

Offensive Rating: 101.2 (29th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 108.1 (22nd of 30)

            So what players on Phoenix do I actually like going forward for this team?  Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic, who will likely be traded, are nice players and Alex Len is a rookie; outside of that not much else to like.  In regards to their future though?  They may have as many as 4 first round picks in next year’s draft, which seems to be one of the best in years, and their own first round pick is possibly going to be the worst.  The Suns are going to be very bad this season, the trade of Marcin Gortat seals that and really shows the direction this team is trying to go in.  They are aggressively tanking and since they are playing in the Western Conference I think they have a good shot at having the worst record in the NBA this season, yes even worse than the 76ers. 

THE REGULAR SEASON IS OVER GUYS! HOORAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now time for some quick awards thoughts

MVP: Kevin Durant

            I think in Westbrook’s absence Durant takes on an even larger role than he had before and scores around 35 PPG while Westbrook is out.  I think he is going to carry the Thunder to a better regular season than some people are expecting and honestly I think there will be a little bit because of voter fatigue as his season, while still the best in the league isn’t quite as good as last year. 

Most Improved Player: Kawhi Leonard

            My expectations are probably irrationally high for Kawhi this season, but honestly I’m expecting a star level performer.  He was the 2^nd best player on the floor for much of the NBA Finals and I’m expecting him to play consistently like that throughout the season.  Honestly though if you told me before the season that Kawhi is going to end the year averaging 24 PPG, 12 RPG and 5 APG I would totally believe it even if it is irrational to think that way.

Defensive Player of the Year: Roy Hibbert

            He sure looked the part in the NBA Playoffs and I expect that to be a large part of the reason he wins.  It’s not like he won’t deserve it though, Hibbert had a strong case last season, and I expect him to be the dominant rim protector he is for years to come. 

6^th Man of the Year: Andrei Kirilenko

            AK47 is a human swiss army knife as an NBA player and considering Pierce and Garnett are going to be resting a lot this season I expect him to be the beneficiary.  I think he has a huge season for the Nets as they put all of his many talents to good use. 

Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle

            He is the 2^nd best coach in the league and I think he is going to take a not very good Dallas team to the playoffs.  He gets the best out of every team he coaches and in a single game no coach is better.

Championship Contenders

I’m going to go over what % chance I would give each team of winning their respective conferences, I believe there are 4 teams that can win the East and 6 teams that can win the West.  So I’ll say what odds I give each team of winning their conference and reasons why. 

Eastern Conference:

Miami Heat (25% chance)

Strengths:

·         Lebron James

·         Dwyane Wade is a superstar when healthy and Chris Bosh is probably one of the league’s most underrated players

·         They have a bunch of role players that fit the strengths of their stars

·         Spoelestra is one of the best coaches in all of the NBA

·         An elite offensive team and a very good defensive team

·         Lebron James

Weaknesses:

·         No team since the 83-87 Boston Celtics have went to 4 straight NBA Finals which the Heat are trying to do this season

·         Wade is constantly injured, it’s going to be hard for him to stay healthy all season long

·         This is one of the oldest teams in the NBA and they didn’t add anyone to help that process, no one is really improving on this team

·         Lebron is the best player in the world by a lot, but even a slight decline in play, which I am expecting hurts this team’s chances

Chicago Bulls (25% chance)

Strengths:

·         I as I stated earlier Rose-Butler-Deng-Gibson-Noah has the potential to be the best lineup of any team in the NBA

·         Thibodeau is one of the best game planners in the NBA and will get the most out of this team on a game by game basis

·         This team got to the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals without Rose, Deng and a quite injured Noah

·         This team had the best record in the NBA in 2010-11 and 2011-12 and now they have Jimmy Butler

·         With Rose they have shown to be an elite defense team and a very good offensive team

Weaknesses:

·         This team isn’t nearly as deep as the teams that finished with the best record in the NBA

·         Outside of Rose this team still doesn’t have a true threat to create offense for himself

·         Thibodeau while a great gameplanner and motivator has a tendency to play his players too many minutes something that could lead to possible injury

·         Still haven’t proven in a playoff series they can really matchup with a Lebron James led team

Indiana Pacers (25% chance)

Strengths:

·         The starting 5 of Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert last season may have been the NBA’s best and they are all returning

·         Their greatest weakness last season was their bench and they addressed that last season with the additions of Scola, Watson and Copeland.  They are also adding whatever Danny Granger can give them depending on his health or anything his expiring contract can get them

·         This team is perfectly designed to play the Miami Heat with Hibbert and West inside offensively and defensively they matchup perfectly with Paul George able to guard Lebron as well as anyone in the NBA and Hibbert as a rim protector

Weaknesses:

·         While they almost got to the Finals last season, Pacers were only a 49 win team, not as good as everyone remembers

·         Danny Granger is already hurt so I really doubt they get anything of value out of him this season, or are able to trade him for anything of value

·         While they matchup well with the Miami Heat I’m not sure how they will fare against the new look Nets and Bulls

Brooklyn Nets (25% chance)

Strengths:

·         A starting five of Williams-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett-Lopez makes so much sense considering these people’s strengths as basketball players it’s kind of scary

·         The bench is actually shockingly good, which for a team with the most expensive starting 5 in NBA history is kind of surprising

·         If they rest their starters throughout the season and is healthy come playoff time, then I’m not sure anyone has as talented a team

·         KG can likely transform an average Nets defense to a very good one just by showing up

·         They are going to be an elite offensive team

Weaknesses:

·         Jason Kidd is a first year coach with absolutely no experience coaching at any level

·         KG and Pierce are old and an injury to either, especially KG could derail any chance at a title

·         We still don’t know how the chemistry will work out, especially with Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce, three players who are used to having the ball in their hands a lot

·         They are going to struggle defensively when KG is not on the floor

So yes I do believe that the top 4 teams in the East all have an equal shot at winning the conference but after looking the teams over and since I basically have to make an official pick I’m going with the Brooklyn Nets.  I think this team is super talented and while I think they will be the worst regular season team of the bunch come playoff time I think they have everything a team could ask for.  A dominant low post player in Brook Lopez, a great point guard in Deron Williams, floor spacers and attackers in Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce, a rim protector who will dominant from midrange in KG, and a deep bench led by AK47.  Now again I think it’s very close and I could see any of the 4 teams winning it, but having to choose 1 I’m going with the Nets. 

Western Conference:

San Antonio Spurs (30% chance)

Strengths:

·         Returning the nucleus of a team that was about as close as any team has ever been to winning the championship without actually winning it

·         Popovich is the best coach in the NBA who uses his flexible roster to play multiple styles depending on the particular matchup

·         Kawhi Leonard could develop into a star player

·         They have a very good, very smart offense and an elite defense

Weaknesses:

·         The possible decline of some of the veterans, most notably Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili

·         Athletic teams have sometimes given them trouble over the years, and the West is quite an athletic conference

·         Can the team recover from the long season it just had?  Is there enough still in the tank?

Los Angeles Clippers (20% chance)

Strengths:

·         Chris Paul is the NBA’s best point guard and combining him with a real coach in Doc Rivers, a pick in roll dynamo in Blake Griffin and sharpshooters JJ Reddick and Dudley could lead to the NBA’s best offense

·         They should have a real defensive system this year with Doc Rivers at the helm not the defense the Grizzlies mediocre offense was able to dominate in the playoffs

·         While they don’t have last year’s super bench they are still a deep team that can create some interesting matchups

Weaknesses:

·         Defensively their bigs still haven’t shown they can be elite defenders

o   DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin have the athleticism to be elite defenders but they haven’t shown they can consistently defend the rim or play people tough in the post

o   Also while Reddick and Dudley are smart defenders who understand their role and will play as well as they can, athlete wings can still blow by them

·         Doc Rivers will definitely be a major upgrade over Vinny Del Negro but he needs to show he can build an elite defense with KG

Oklahoma City Thunder (20% chance)

Strengths:

·         Come playoff time, they have Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook playing on the same team

·         They are an underrated team defensively, finishing with a top 5 defense last season

·         Serge Ibaka is probably underrated at this point, he struggled in last year’s playoffs but is a great defensive player and has a knockdown midrange jump shot

·         Again with a healthy Durant and Westbrook this team probably is in the top 5 offensively and defensively

Weaknesses:

·         Scott Brooks is their coach, and while he has done a good job helping to build OKC up he thinks Kendrick Perkins should start for his team.  Kendrick Perkins may be the worst starter in the entire NBA and yet he starts for a team with a title chance! Why?! Why?!

·         They don’t seem to have a reliable third scoring option, as Ibaka proved that if a team is focusing on taking him out of the game then it can be done

·         The defense though probably still has some weaknesses against some of the leagues better offenses as the Rockets were still fairly effective against them in the playoffs

Houston Rockets (20% chance)

Strengths:

·         Smart and talented offensive team that had the NBA’s 6^th best offense and 16^th best defense last season and they are adding Dwight Howard to the mix

·         James Harden is the best shooting guard in the NBA and he is an improving player who should create a dynamite pick and roll threat with Dwight Howard

·         With Asik and Howard this team will have constant rim protection that should allow them to be a top 10 defensive team at the minimum

·         Dork Elvis at GM is a constant threat to make a game changing trade that could catapult the team to top  contender status

Weaknesses:

·         Two of their 5 best players, Asik and Howard likely can’t play together all that long because of possible spacing issues

·         The team is likely one player away from a championship, they have a lot of good pieces but I’m not sure they totally fit together

Memphis Grizzlies (5% chance)

Strengths:

·         The NBA’s 2^nd best defense last season returns and looks to be just as good as ever

·         The league’s most physically imposing team with Tony Allen, Marc Gasol, and Z-Bo

·         The offense was much improved after the Rudy Gay trade and was downright dominant against the LA Clippers

·         They also have the hungriest dog in all the NBA in Tony Allen which honestly has to mean something

Weaknesses:

·         The offense wasn’t very good during the regular season, even if it was better post Rudy Gay trade

·         Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince went unguarded during the Spurs series, something that the Grizzlies were never able to punish the Spurs for doing

·         Z-Bo is getting older and during the 2^nd half of last season he was not the player that people are used to seeing, this could really spell trouble for a limited Memphis offense

Golden State Warriors (5% chance)

Strengths:

·         Shooting!  Steph Curry basically needs to be guarded to half court out of fear of giving him a halfway decent look from anywhere on the floor.  Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes stretch the floor very well also, creating the league’s most dangerous team from 3 point range.

·         Andre Igoudala should help the team tremendously defensively, Denver improved from 17^th to 10^th in the NBA defensively last season and he was the team’s only major addition

·         A potentially healthy Andrew Bogut also changes their ceiling defensively, considering he is one of the NBA’s great rim protectors when healthy, and last year the team had a defense that was able to hold up as 13^th in the NBA

Weaknesses:

·         This team was surprisingly not as offensively potent as you would have expected last season, only finished 11^th in the NBA in offense last season despite the multitude of scoring options, a ranking I expect to improve this season but not to where it needs to

·         I am also not sure how willing they are to play small ball, a set up that proved devastatingly effective in the post season may not be part of their regular rotation this season

·         David Lee may be a very nice offensive player and a great defensive player but he can play absolutely no defense whatsoever

So I think every single one of the teams mentioned above have a real chance at winning the West, some greater than others.  However if I am picking one team I am going with the old reliable San Antonio Spurs.  They are the most balanced team in the entire NBA; they can play multiple styles, have a great coach, and have the lowest probability of having their season derailed by an outside force. 

Finals Prediction

Now who do I think is going to win the NBA Championship, the answer is the San Antonio Spurs in 6 games over the Brooklyn Nets.  While both these teams are well balanced, deep teams that can play really fun styles I am giving the slight edge to the Spurs.  This team should be stronger all around defensively, and has less obvious weaknesses to exploit than do the Nets.  While the Nets are very good, the way to beat the Spurs is with athleticism, and the Nets aren’t going to be beating anyone like that anytime soon. 

Stay Hungry My Friends