Wednesday, May 30, 2012

MLB Surprises Part Deux

For the second part of this post I'm going to cover teams in the MLB that haven't quite lived up to expectations thus far. Every year some teams put fear in the heart of their fanbases early with a slow start to their season. Most of the time they eventually turn it around and begin to play up to expectations.. However sometimes these teams prove to have been overrated and never improve. We're going to figure out which of the many under-achieving teams will turn it around and which are headed for a golf-filled October.
Boston: Admittedly expectations weren't very high in Beantown coming into this season after the worst September collapse in MLB history. However, no one expected the Red Sox to be in last place headed into June. The big problem for them is they aren't even playing that poorly, they're 24-24 as of May 28th. The Yankees and Rays are, as expected, just better while Toronto and Baltimore have rosters loaded with young talent. Meanwhile other eyes are on young developing teams such as the Royals and Indians in the AL Central or the all star laiden Rangers and Angels in the AL West. Forget bad or underachieving, the Red Sox are quickly becoming irrelevant. Even with the offense playing as well as it is, they still haven't been able to break out of last place and it's difficult to see Ortiz keeping the MVP type numbers he's put up so far. While much of the lineup is underachieving, I wouldn't count on all of  them turn it around. At some point Youkalis is no longer in a slump, he's just aging and Gonzalez has shown no signs that he's anything but average. Getting Ellsbury back in July might be a plus but expect the offense to slow a bit by mid summer. The Sox were downright abysmal on the mound to start the year but have evened out a bit since then. I wouldn't expect to see too much of an improvement for the rest of the year. So far the ace of the staff has been Felix Doubront who is the epitome of average. Beyond that they have the below average trio of Daniel Bard, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett not forgetting the downright horrible Clay Bucholz. They appear to have no options beyond what they're putting out right now so look for a .500 finish and a 3rd straight long offseason in Boston.

Los Angeles: After signing CJ Wilson and free agent prize of the year Albert Pujols this offseason, the Angels were expected to unseat the Rangers as the kings of the AL West and contend for a world series. However much of this talk disapeared after an 18-25 start. Pujols was having the worst season of his career and they just didn't seem to be all the way there yet. However the Angels have now won seven games in a row and are challenging the Rangers for the lead in the AL West as expected. So which Angels team should we expect to see for the rest of the season? I'd say that this current run is more indicative of what will be seen for the rest of the year. If Jered Weaver isn't out for too long they have one of the best pitching staffs in the game including veterans  CJ Wilson, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana. Then you throw in the lineup featuring young up and comers Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo, reliable veterans such as Howie Kendrick, Torii Hunter, and Vernon Wells, and the suddenly rejuvinated Albert Pujols and all of a sudden you have a World Series contender. Expect to see this turn around to continue and for the AL West race to come down to the wire.

Detroit: After making a splash in free agency by signing the biggest (literally)prize in Prince Fielder, the Tigers were a sexy pick to win the World Series. What was being overlooked was that Justin Verlander was sure to regress even is just a little bit, as was Alex Avila, and the rest of the pitching staff. They were over-valued in the preseason and thus their below-.500 record shouldn't be a suprise. They were a team that had multiple guys having career years last year and they barely cracked 90 wins. Now they're having trouble staying competitve in the supposedly bad AL Central mostly because the division isn't that bad. Only expect to see them to matter if the Indians and White Sox fall off completely, otherwise they have a future to focus on.
Philadelphia: After having the best run in franchise history these past few years, no one expected the Phillies to go away easily no matter how good the NL East would be this year. It's an even bigger suprise that it took until May 28th for the Phils to break out of last place. The offense has regressed even more this year and they're now relying on Carlos Ruiz as their best hitter. The only hope they're holding out right now is that Ryan Howard can come back and return to his old form. The pitching staff has been good but perhaps not as dominant as they had hoped when they put together the five man super-rotation only 2 years ago. Roy Halladay will be on the shelf for the most of summer but Hamels has been downright dominant so far. Overall if they can avoid further injury they should be in decent shape down the stretch. Look for them to make a deal for another bat around the deadline and if  Halladay returns and is healthy, the Phils could make a push. But that push may only get them a second wild card spot in the competitive NL East.

Other Predictions: Watch for the Marlins of Miami and Chicago White Sox to remain competitive all year and compete for playoff spots, don't sleep on them. You can sleep on the Diamondbacks though, they're going a long way to prove that last year was an abberation.

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