Every year some teams stir up their fanbases by having an unexpectedly good start only to fall by the wayside halfway through summer and in many cases fall back to their familiar 4th place position. Meanwhile contenders terrify their faithful into irrational trade talks and other reactionary behavior by having a slow start. More often than not these teams end up in 1st place where they are perceived to belong. However there are some teams that defy expectation and either stay hot or never get out of a rut. This year has as many early suprises as any in recent memory. It seems as though the Yankees haved righted their ship and are headed back to a position to be upset in the playoffs like their fans have come to expect while other teams continue to suprise. So which teams are having suprise years and which teams will be back to normal soon? Part 1 of this post will feature the teams that are suprising because they are playing above expectations.
Baltimore: The Orioles are the poster child for suprise teams that impress early only to collapse by September. Nearly every year since 2000 they've had a hot start but have finished no better than 4th place, in some cases playing historically bad at the end of the season.(They've had 4-36 and 5-35 finishes) This year is different only slightly, it's hard to see this team collapsing that hard. For the first time since Cal Ripken, the Orioles have a bona fide superstar in Adam Jones. At the age of 26 he's blossoming into a complete player with a .944 OPS and a team leading 14 home runs. Overall the offense is playing well enough to stay in first place but this is where the differ from Oriole teams in the past; they haven'treached their peak yet. Nick Markakis, Robert Andino, J.J Hardy, and Matt Wieters are all much better hitters than they are showing now. If they get better production out of those guys plus a little more from Wilson Betemit, Nick Johnson, Mark Reynolds, Bill Hall, or Endy Chavez, the offense could be dangerous. On the flip side, the bullpen is humming along as well as it possibly can right now. Baltimore boasts the best Bullpen in baseball including five guys with 20+ innings and below a two era lead by Jim Johnson's 20 and two/thirids innings, .87 era and .77 whip. This is not sustainable, the bullpen's era will rise over the course of the year but the starter's era falling could counteract that. The starting pitching has begun to slip a bit but should there be faith that it will return to normal? How much faith should be put into Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter, and Brian Matusz?
Verdict: The Bullpen's era rising is a given but if the offense can get more production out of it's verterans and the starters can pitch like they did in April this team could compete. However not enough as they barely miss the playoffs while finishing 3rd in the AL East for the first time in more than a decade.
Cleveland: For the first time in five years the Indians matter again. They have a great chance of making the playoffs for the first time in that span, by default, but a division title all the same. This team is about as bland as it gets in baseball. The offense is completely pedestrian at everything besides getting on base.(8 regulars have a OBP above .300) Besides that they have no power, no superstars, and the only guys that can hit for power in the lineup(Hafner and Duncan) can't do much else. The lone bright spot in their offense right now is Asdrubal Cabrera who is having a career year. Somehow though, these Indians are scoring runs, they hit well with runners in scoring position and get on base and for now that's enough. On the pitching side, Derek Lowe has been the ace this year but at age 39 can that hold up for a full season? If the Indians want to compete they will need the pitching of Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jiminez to improve.
Verdict: If the White Sox slow down this is the Indian's division. However they will have a tough time competing in the playoffs unless they can add some pop to the lineup and see improved results from Jimenez and Masterson. However they won't even get there if the White Sox sustain their pace.
Washington: Good news for the line up, Steven Strasberg is the best hitting pitcher in baseball. There's not much good news beyond that besides Adam LaRoche's career year. Much of the lineup that was expected to be above average this year has been downright abysmal. You know you're in trouble when you need Jayson Werth to come back to improve the lineup. However expect to see a better output this summer. Ryan Zimmerman should improve, Bryce Harper will continue to grow and they could always pick up a bat at the trade deadline. Then there's the pitching staff which has been dominant so far. They are the reason why Washington is leading the league's best division right now. They have a cy young canidate in Gio Gonzalez, two all stars in Jordan Zimmerman and Steven Strasberg, and two more above average pitchers to anchor the rotation in Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiller. That staff is as loaded as any since the 2003 Yankees.
Verdict: While they may not win the competitive NL East, they will make the playoffs and will be a force to be reckoned with once they get there.
Los Angeles Dodgers: If I was to tell you pre-season that Matt Kemp would be sidelined with an injury but the Dodgers would have the best record in baseball anyway, would you believe me? Well so far it's come true as the resilient Dodgers put the troubles of the McCourt era behind them and excelled. Led by suprise performance from AJ Ellis and Tony Gwynn Jr. and guys you forgot about like Bobby Abreu, Jerry Hairston Jr., Mark Ellis, James Loney and Juan Rivera; the Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball. So much for Ethier and Kemp being the only ones that mattered. Meanwhile the pitching staff is also as good as any led the three headed monster of Clayton Kershaw, Ted Lilly, and Chris Capuano. This team isn't just suprising, they're running away with the divsion. They've opened up a 7.5 game lead over San Francisco and it's not even June.
Verdict: At some point this hot streak will end. Right now the Dodgers are relying on too many guys playing aboved their capabilities. At some point that will come back to haunt them but they're playing well enough now that it might not matter. Soon they'll have Matt Kemp back which adds to an already stellar offense. They'll win the division if for no other reason than San Francisco's just not good enough to catch them while Arizona is playing like last year was an abberation. Don't expect the Dodgers to make too much noise in the playoffs though.
New York Mets: I'll keep this one short and sweet. The Mets have an average offense, an average pitching staff, and play in the best division in baseball. The team is littered with young guys playing above expectation right now. While the Mets are in 2nd right now and are 6 games above .500, they have a run differential of -19 and have been winning close games. The Miami Marlins are coming on, the Braves will likely heat up again soon, and does anyone think Philly is going to sit in last all year? Didn't think so. Look for the Mets to play like the Mets down the stretch and end up in last place. Mark me down as a non believer in the "Met's Moxy" if for no reason other than it's the Mets.
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