Thursday, September 5, 2013

NFL Season Preview

                                          (Image Courtesy of Sporting News)
AFC East
(1) New England Patriots 12-4
Buffalo Bills 6-10
New York Jets 6-10
Miami Dolphins 6-10

AFC North
(2) Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
(5) Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
Baltimore Ravens 9-7
Cleveland Browns 5-11

AFC South
(4) Houston Texans 11-5
Indianapolis Colts 8-8
Tennessee Titans 4-12
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14

AFC West
(3) Denver Broncos 11-5
(6) Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
San Diego Chargers 6-10
Oakland Raiders 3-13

NFC East
(4) New York Giants 10-6
Washington Redskins 9-7
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles 6-10

NFC North
(2) Green Bay Packers 11-5
Chicago Bears 9-7
Detroit Lions 8-8
Minnesota Vikings 6-10

NFC South
(3)New Orleans Saints 10-6
(6) Atlanta Falcons 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9
Carolina Panthers 6-10

NFC West
(1) Seattle Seahawks 12-4
(5) San Francisco 49ers 12-4
St. Louis Rams 7-9
Arizona Cardinals 6-10

NFC Championship: Seattle Seahawks over Green Bay Packers
AFC Championship: Pittsburgh Steelers over New England Patriots
Super Bowl: Seattle Seahawks over Pittsburgh Steelers
MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay Packers


Some Notes about my predictions:
·         I believe the NFC is significantly stronger than the AFC this season; especially the NFC West which I believe has the two best teams in football.
·         AFC playoff teams
o   The Patriots are probably as low on talent as they have been in years, however there are a few reasons I see two main reasons they will have the best record in the AFC: an improved defense, New England has invested heavily in their defense recently and I think it pays off this season, also they play in the AFC East, one of the weakest divisions in football, allowing them to possibly go 6-0 in division play
o   Many don’t see the Steelers as a playoff team, but personally I believe the injury ravaged bunch of the past few seasons gives way to a fairly dominant team, with a team that is beginning to skew younger
o   The Broncos probably won’t be as dominant as last season’s with a weaker defense, but a Peyton Manning led offense practically guarantees 11 wins
o   The Texans much like the Broncos probably won’t be as good as last season but a J.J. Watt led defense and a strong running game in a weak division probably guarantees at least a division crown
o   The Chiefs are basically everyone’s sleeper team, I don’t know if that makes them a sleeper though, and I agree improved coaching and quarterback play, along with a surprisingly strong talent base should help lead them to a playoff season
o   The Bengals are my final playoff team as a strong defense and an offense revolving around A. J. Green might not result in dominance but could definitely result in a playoff berth.  If Andy Dalton improves substantially this team has even more potential.
·         AFC non-playoff teams(I’m just going over a few notable teams)
o   I see the Ravens taking a step back this season for a few reasons, the team really isn’t the same as last year’s and the large roster turnover could result in a team taking some time to gel as a unit. 
o   The Colts could end up being a better team than last year, but end up with a substantially worse record.  Last year’s Colts team got outscored last season, while playing the easiest schedule in football, had an insane 9-1 record in one score games, and they had Chuckstrong going.  This team might end up improving but last year the Colts were basically a 6 or 7 win team that somehow won 11 games, and I just can’t see that happening again.
o   The AFC East teams I all see getting 6 wins for a few reasons, the Jets no matter what everyone seems to think aren’t the worst team in football.  They were a 6 win team last season that had a terrible offense and a very good defense, and honestly I don’t see how that changed things for them.  The Dolphins seem to be a team many people think is going to improve because of all their splashy free agent moves.  However this team also lost many important contributors in free agency and I don’t see them getting much better without them.  The Bills have the highest variance of all those teams, if EJ Manuel impresses and the defense improves then this team could theoretically sneak into the playoffs, if those things don’t happen this could be a 3 or 4 win team.
·         NFC Playoff teams
o   The Seahawks and 49ers are the two best teams in football point blank.  These two teams have elite defenses by any measure, elite running games and impressive young quarterbacks.  If I had to choose I’d give the Seahawks a slight edge because their passing game will probably be a little stronger than last years.
o   I am also a strong believer in the Green Bay Packers this season and I believe Aaron Rodgers is going to have a monster season.  The team was one of the most injured in football last season and their improved health should help them to stay strong as a title contender.
o   The Saints are another interesting team after last year’s disappointing Bounty Gate plagued season.  The return of Sean Payton should automatically improve the team even if the defense is pretty awful again.  However a Drew Brees and Sean Payton led offense should be enough to get this team to 10 wins. 
o   I also think the Giants return as winners of the NFC East.  This team has a very good quarterback and an enigmatic defense that should lead it to about 10 wins and come playoff time this team could go on a Super Bowl run or lose in the 1st round who knows. 
o   I think the last Wild Card spot ends up going to the Falcons who are going to stumble after last year’s impressive season.  While the offense is still quite dynamic, the defense will likely become worse this season and the NFC South is going to be stronger than it was last season.
·         NFC non-playoff teams
o   Really if any team in the NFC made the playoffs besides maybe the Arizona Cardinals I wouldn’t be that surprised.  The NFC is completely loaded this season, not just top heavy but quite deep as well. 
o   The Redskins will probably fall back a little bit after their surprise season last year and will likely be more conservative with their use of RGIII, though they still have a lot of talent. 
o   The Cowboys are dangerous as always but probably aren’t deep enough a team to get there.
o   I’m not a huge believe in the Eagles this season but they could finish almost anywhere depending on how Chip Kelly’s gameplan works out.
o   The Bears offense should be better than last season but it will be almost impossible for their defense to be that productive again.
o   The Lions should improve substantially from last season with a better record in close games along with an improved defense and running game, but this team is quite top heavy, I don’t think they are deep enough to make the playoffs
o   The Vikings were a playoff team last season led by the otherworldly Adrian Peterson.  However if Peterson’s play drops from otherworldly to simply best in the league this alone should drop them from playoff team to NFC also ran
o   The Buccaneers are another team that is quite high variance.  The defense is quite talented and if Josh Freeman improves the team has a chance to be a Super Bowl contender.  However I’m not sold on Josh Freeman and thus I see them outside looking in
o   Talent wise the Panthers could easily be a playoff team this season.  However I believe Ron Rivera is one of the worst coaches in football and that their talent base is slightly overrated. 
o   The Rams have a decent talent base and if Sam Bradford emerges as a solid starter, while unlikely, they have the defensive talent to break through
Playoffs
·         I think that either the Seahawks or 49ers are the two teams most likely to win the Super Bowl from a talent perspective; however they will likely play each other before the NFC Championship even.  One of those two teams will win the Super Bowl but it is going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
·         The AFC is probably just as interesting in that no team truly looks like that strong a contender.  Personally I’d give the edge to the Steelers because of their balance between offense and defense.  

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