Image courtesy of www.Seahawks.com
(This article originally appeared last week on Stoop Sports.)
I don’t need to waste too many words here explaining the importance of the quarterback in the modern NFL.
There’s no two ways about it: the right quarterback changes everything.
This is especially true in the 2013 NFC West. Two teams (San Francisco and Seattle) saw their fortunes improve substantially due to young quarterback play. Sure, Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh deserve credit for building their respective teams into contenders, but Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick solidified both team’s places as long-term contenders.
The division’s other two teams, Arizona and St. Louis, are both hoping to see positive returns on big-time investments they’ve made on quarterbacks.
History shows that at least a couple of these situations won’t work out long term. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, only 12 will likely go into the season with the same quarterback they started 2009 with. None of the NFC West teams are among those 12.
Interestingly enough, the division contains two former No. 1 overall picks…and neither is among the two best quarterbacks in the division. So how will each team fare throwing the ball this season?
Carson Palmer- The USC product has gone from a Heisman winner/can’t-miss prospect, to a rookie who didn’t throw a pass, to a budding superstar, to an above-average guy on an immature team, to an average QB, to retired, to a national punch line, to irrelevant. And all by the age of 33.
While the perception of Palmer has changed seemingly each season, he has remained mostly the same quarterback (save for 2005 and 2011). A quick glance at some of his 2012 stats could make one think Palmer had a better season than he really did. He threw for 4018 yards and 22 touchdowns, with only 14 interceptions. But his yards per attempt (7.1) and completion percentage (61.1) were quite average.
Of course nearly any NFL season is a small-sample size, and numbers mean very little in a vacuum. The advanced stats created by the folks at Football Outsiders, defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) and defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), put traditional stats into perspective by adjusting for strength of schedule among other factors. These numbers were less kind to Palmer. He was 18th in DVOA at -2.4 (zero is average), 18th in DYAR at 334 and 29th in QBR at 44.7 last year for Oakland.
But Palmer is no longer a Raider, and the move will provide a few positive changes. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are both better than any receiver Palmer dealt with in Oakland. The offensive line struggled for most of last season, but the front office committed to improving the unit in the offseason, bringing in Jonathan Cooper with the seventh overall pick.
The run game couldn’t do much worse than its disastrous 2012 campaign, but still likely won’t be much of a factor in 2013. Considering that, the losses on defense and a tough divisional schedule, it’s safe to say the Cardinals will be throwing the ball around a lot. As a result, look for Palmer to put up big-time traditional numbers (4000+ yards, 20+ TD’s) while remaining an average quarterback for a slightly-below-average team.
Sam Bradford: The 2010 first overall pick and former Offensive Rookie of Year hasn’t quite lived up to expectation the past two seasons. His 2012 numbers were somewhat similar to Palmer’s. His traditional numbers were slightly worse (59.5 comp. %, 21-13 td-int. ratio, 3702 yards, 6.7 y/a) while his advanced numbers were slightly better (-1.2 DVOA, 372 DYAR, 51.6 QBR). Bradford has youth and the chance at further growth on his side as well.
Most important for Bradford is how he adjusts to a litany of changes around him. Gone are old reliables Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson, along with running back Steven Jackson. However, the team used its first-round pick on receiver Tavon Austin who figures to be a big part of the offense.
Bradford ranking ahead of Palmer is really due mostly to his greater probability of improvement. And that improvement will be vitally important for the trajectory of Bradford’s career. This season will decide if the Rams offer him another mega-contract or move in another direction.
Colin Kaepernick: In 2012, the Nevada product went from a back-up/situational player to a Super Bowl starter/possible messiah. So it might be easy to forget he has only started seven regular-season games in his young career. It’s not as if those games weren’t impressive; he tore apart the league’s best defense (Chicago) and went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady before eviscerating Green Bay in the Divisional playoffs and leading the Niners to a second-half comeback in the NFC Championship against Atlanta.
Kaepernick was among the league’s most efficient passers in 2012. He completed over 62% of his passes at an average of over eight yards per attempt. He was also third among QB’s with a DVOA of 25.7%. So no one’s questioning his passing ability (or his rushing ability for that matter); it’s just that seven games does qualify as a small sample size. So it’s not clear whether he’ll struggle a bit more as defenses will be more ready to take on the read-option in 2013, or whether he’ll improve enough that defensive adjustments won’t matter. Such improvement isn’t rare for a player moving into their third season.
Kaepernick’s volume will almost certainly increase in 2013, but it wouldn’t be any great shock if became somewhat less efficient as well.
Russell Wilson: Wilson put up one of the great rookie seasons ever in 2012. He tossed a record-tying 26 touchdown passes to go alongside only 10 interceptions. He completed 64% of his passes for nearly eight yards per attempt. He finished sixth in the NFL with a DVOA of 19.7% and, like Kaepernick, he was quite the threat on the ground with 489 rush yards.
And, also like Kaepernick, Wilson is almost certain to see an increase in usage in 2013, which could presumably lead to a decrease in efficiency. Wilson threw the ball less than 400 times in 2012. Part of that was due to the team’s super-effective rushing attack and part of it was due to Wilson’s rawness early in the season. Either way, he’ll be throwing the ball more often this season.
Wilson wasn’t necessarily better than Kaepernick last season, but we have a full season’s worth of evidence that he’s one of the NFL’s best.
Moving into his second season as the leader of a Super Bowl-caliber team, the sky is the limit for Mr. Wilson.
Stay hungry, my friends
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