Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Overlooked Stanley Cup Final Angles and Prediction

Image courtesy of loveofhockey.areavoices.com
Tonight begins what some have speculated will be one of the best Stanley Cup Final matchups in recent memory. I won’t jink the series by making such a claim as I did with the Conference Finals.

When Boston and Chicago face off tonight in the first Stanley Cup game between Original Six rivals in nearly three and a half decades, people will tune into see how Boston’s stingy-doesn’t-even-begin-describe-it defense will plan to slow down Chicago’s creative and deadly offense.

But of course it’s not that simple. There’s so much more going on here than an inevitable seven-game series where either Tuukka Rask or Patrick Kane prevails. Each series (and Finals matchups especially) is filled with storylines, matchups and angles you didn’t consider. Legacies will be altered, created, built upon and possibly destroyed.
So here are NUMBER angles, matchups and storylines besides Chicago’s offense and Boston’s defense:

1.       Kane and Jonathan Toews have been ….ordinary? Kane’s hatrick in the Game Five clincher over Los Angeles seemed to have made everyone forgot that Kane has been quite ordinary this postseason. Through the first 16 games against Minnesota, Detroit and Los Angeles, Kane had only three goals and eight assists. His possession and corsi  numbers took a slight hit as well. But he wasn’t necessarily playing much worse. He’s a creator above all else. He’s not much of a physical force or defensive presence and he’s been document to have been immature at times. But there are few players in the league who create offense the way he does. He has still taken plenty of shots at net this postseason and as Gave Five showed, it was only a matter of time before he started to break through. Don’t count on that consistently happening against Boston but Kane will require special defensive attention.

Toews, on the other hand, is a bit harder to pinpoint. The 2010 Conn Smythe winner has one goal and nine points so far in the playoffs. And although he’s seemed physically overwhelmed at times, his corsi and fenwick numbers are among the best on his team. Toews is the opposite of Kane: he’s not as creative or dangerous with the puck but he’s a capable scorer and as good in the defensive zone as any forward not named Patrice Bergeron. He’s a point-per-game player who’s widely regarded as a World-Class leader. He’s the perfect two-way forward. It might seem like a stretch, but the only thing plaguing Toews is bad luck and tough individual matchups.

2.      Unlikely Playoff Heroes Bryan Bickell is tied for the Blackhawk team lead for goals with eight while Boston’s David Krejci is on pace to lead the playoffs in scoring for the second time in three years. Yes, you read that right. It’s only been done twice in the past 20 years (Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg). Both players have been vital to their team’s success; who knows if Boston makes it out of the first round without Krejci’s heroics against Toronto or if Chicago is able to make it past Detroit without timely goals from Bickell? Speaking of under-appreciated players…

3.      Best goalie in the world? Is Tuukka Rask inching towards the best goalie in the World status? It would seem so.  This assertion would have been laughable just three years ago when Rask played a major role in Boston blowing a 3-0 series lead to the Flyers while simultaneously blowing his shot at unseating Tim Thomas.
But now he seems to be four wins away from at least moving into the conversation. Rask has posted a .943 save percentage this postseason including an incredible .985 against the high-scoring Penguins. He turned aside an astounding 53 of 54 shots in a Game Three that essentially decided the series for Boston. This isn’t a case of small sample size either. Rask was second to only Sergei Bobrovsky in even-strength save percentage (a more consistent indicator of goalie performance) this regular season. So, yeah, Rask is really, really good. Oh, and he’s a restricted free agent. My guess is, he won’t be going anywhere.

4.      Legacy of each team Winning two Stanley Cups in a relatively short period of time; that one’s obvious. For the Bruins, winning this series would mean winning two Stanley Cups in three years. In the offseason they sign Rask long term, bring back Nathan Horton and they enter 2013-2014 as prohibitive favorites to win a third cup in four years. They’d be given far more attention than after 2011’s championship and may be treated as a model franchise (more on that later). Claude Julien probably gets some Hall of Fame consideration (not joking) and Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara and David Krejci are forever remembered as playoff heroes.

Chicago’s winning scenario is a little less rosy than Boston’s. The Blackhawks would become sort-of hockey’s modified version of the Marlins (Notice: modified. Not as extreme). Only instead of stripping the team after Championships for cost-saving measures, they’re forced too because of salary cap ramifications.

After winning it all in 2010, the Blackhawks found themselves in trouble with the salary cap (that tends to happen when EVERYONE gets a long-term deal) and turned over one-third of its roster in the offseason. The watered-down Hawks finished eighth and sixth in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Both years they bowed out in the first round. Not much of a Stanley Cup defense. This year they’re contenders again but once again they’ll likely face a lot of offseason turnover. They’ll enter the offseason with less than two million dollars in cap room and eight free agents from the current roster. Chances are there’s at least one major trade (and many minor losses) in store for Chicago this winter.

5.      Team-building techniques As I mentioned before, a second Stanley Cup in three years would earn Boston the title of the NHL’s “model franchise.” And that title would be appropriate. Any team looking to rebuild right now (cough cough Sabres) should use Boston as a blueprint.

Look at it this way: the most successful teams in the NHL the last five years have been Detroit, Boston, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New York, Los Angeles, San Jose and Vancouver in some order. We’re shown every year in the postseason why Vancouver and San Jose are poor models, the Rangers haven’t had quite enough success, Detroit hasn’t made the conference final since 2009, Pittsburgh’s been too lucky to replicate and Chicago is forced to constantly strip down and rebuild their secondary units. Boston and Los Angeles are the most workable models. Since they’ve sustained success with less scoring talent, let’s go with Boston.

The Bruins are defensively sound, physically tough, mentally strong and lethal when they know they know they can intimidate you. They have players that deserve to win the Selke, Norris and Vezina.  Bergeron, Rask and Chara are the best defensive-forward/defenseman/goalie trio in the league.

They built around a two-way center in Bergeron, a hulking, intimidating defenseman in Chara who can advance the puck, play special teams, is a threat at the point and can man-handle nearly any forward. They employ a few forwards who always seem to play their best when it matters most in Krejci and Horton, the best hybrid scorer/fighter/hitter in the NHL in Milan Lucic, a world-class pest (incredibly valuable) in Brad Marchand and a solid defensive unit. They have guys like Shawn Thornton who can fight (almost) anyone he squares up with.

The most important factor in Boston’s success isn’t their talent on the ice but the atmosphere they’ve created in the dressing room. They know as well as anyone that character is as important as talent. That’s why guys like Danny Paille who join as free agents immediately take on the personality of the team. It’s why Gregory Campbell would rather finish his shift with a freshly broken leg than go to the bench and leave his team a man down.

Bruins in seven. The long-suffering fans in Beantown can finally rejoice.


Stay hungry my friends. 

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