(Image courtesy of nba.com)
Are you excited? Well I sure am, the Miami Heat are taking on
the San Antonio Spurs in what could potentially be an all-time great NBA
Finals. You have two teams who are
trying to prove themselves as a dynasty.
The Miami Heat led by Lebron James who are in their 3rd
straight Finals and are looking for their 2nd straight championship
while the Tim Duncan led San Antonio Spurs are looking for their 5th
ring since he got there. Both these
teams play unique and dynamic styles that are going to be a fascinating point
of comparison as the Finals progresses.
Now let’s look at who these two teams are (All stats courtesy of Basketball Reference):
Miami Heat
Regular
Season Offensive Rating (Points per 100 possessions): 112.3, 2nd in
NBA
Regular
Season Defensive Rating (Points allowed per 100 possessions):103.7, 9th
in NBA
Regular
Season Record: 66-16, 1st in NBA
Regular
Season Pace (Possessions per game): 90.7. 23rd in NBA
Expected
Record: 62-20, 2nd in NBA
Playoff
Offensive Rating: 111.4, 1st in NBA Playoffs
Playoff
Defensive Rating: 100.4, 4th in NBA Playoffs
Playoff
Record: 12-4
Post
Season Pace: 86.7, 15th in NBA Playoffs
San Antonio Spurs
Regular
Season Offensive Rating: 108.3, 7th in NBA
Regular
Season Defensive Rating: 101.6, 3rd in NBA
Regular
Season Record: 58-24, 3rd in NBA
Regular
Season Pace: 94.2, 6th in NBA
Expected
Record: 58-24, 4th in NBA
Playoff
Offensive Rating: 108.9, 2nd in NBA Playoffs
Playoff
Defensive Rating: 98.0, 1st in NBA Playoffs
Playoff
Record: 12-2
Post
Season Pace: 90.0, 8th in NBA Playoffs
Alright so both of these teams are
pretty good during the regular season and have been every bit as good if not
better in the post season. This series
will produce some really interesting matchups that are going to produce an
awesome series. Now what are going to be
the key stories that decide this series?
Big vs. Small:
Will Miami return to the small ball
attack that served them so well all season, the NBA’s best record, or will they
be forced to play big like they did against Indiana. Well this depends on a few players, Tiago
Splitter for one. This series Duncan is
going to be guarded by a big the entire series, his offensive arsenal is much
too dangerous for that not to be the case.
However if Splitter is guarded by Battier or another Miami wing then it
will be his responsibility to take advantage and pound him down low. I would expect the Spurs to run a lot of pick
and rolls for Splitter and to pound him in the post to take advantage of the
matchup. Another decision Miami could
make would be to only play small when Matt Bonner or Boris Diaw are on the
floor. If either of those two players
are on the floor then Miami can go small with the threat of being attacked down
low minimized.
What remains to be seen though is how much Shane
Battier has left in the tank. This is a
player who has been a wing his entire career and this season made the sacrifice
of playing almost exclusively power forward, probably creating the most
physically punishing season of his career.
That added to the fact that he then had to matchup with the physical
beasts Carlos Boozer and David West in consecutive rounds took a physical toll
on him. If he is just worn down then the
Heat’s hand could be forced and they will either have to go big, or play Lebron
at the four and make him take the punishment.
What remains to be scene his how the Spurs plan
on attacking a small Heat team. All
season they have remained a team that didn’t attack the offensive glass, they
played it safe and wanted to prevent fast break points, they ranked 29th
in the NBA in Offensive Rebound %.
However against a team that isn’t as big as them they could try to
exploit that and go for more offensive rebounds, like Indiana. The other option the Spurs have is going
small themselves and playing Kawhi Leonard at the four. This is likely a lineup that Popovich will throughout
in small spurts to possibly matchup with Miami’s speed or possibly even play it
when Miami goes big in attempting to leverage some matchups.
Miami’s Offense vs. Spur’s
Defense
Well the first question is who
guards Lebron James and that question is easy, Kawhi Leonard, then 2nd
question is more difficult, how? Well
Leonard will not be doing this by himself I can tell you that. Their defensive gameplan I expect to be quite
similar to Indiana’s, funnel him to the big men and force him to take contested
shots or pass the ball away. The Spurs
though, aren’t as athletic or long as the Pacers and thus it will be more
difficult to contest open shots, thus Miami is likely to have more open
threes. What is the real key to how
Miami’s offense is going to play is Dwyane Wade. Wade for his career has been a dynamic
offensive player who is a great cutter who can really beat you in multiple ways
and attack the rim. This playoffs,
likely because of age and injuries, he has not been that player. He struggled for the entire Indiana series until
game 7 and it will be quite interesting to see how the Spurs defend him. If he is still struggling then the Spurs may
cover him like they covered Tony Allen.
Basically ignoring him on the perimeter and basically daring him to take
jump shots, Wade’s weakness. Then the
question of Chris Bosh, what Bosh do we see the Bosh that is an elite mid-range
shooter who can beat you in multiple ways, or the tentative Bosh who is content
to shoot three pointers? If Bosh is aggressive
he could try to get the Spurs in foul trouble and cause some dilemmas for
Popovich. Another important point, Miami
thrives off of getting free throws, they ranked 6th in the league at
FT/FGA, but the Spurs defense doesn’t commit many fouls finishing 3rd
best in FT/FGA defense, Miami could lose some points in that matchup. Also Lebron is amazing and is going to play
amazing the real question is, can the Spurs hold him to about 50% shooting
instead of the 56% shooting he had during the regular season.
Spur’s Offense vs. Miami
Defense
The Spur’s Offense is built around
passing and Tony Parker. They offense
sends Parker around multiple screens every possession as he attempts to find a
way to score or set up teammates.
Whether it is through traditional pick and roll offense or more
complicated attacks, the Spurs will be trying to get Parker free to unleash
havoc. Miami’s defense is about
aggressive help and swarming the passing lanes attempting to force
turnovers. The Spurs were ranked 19th
in the NBA during the regular season with turnovers, but have played
considerably better in the post season.
If the Spurs are able to limit turnovers then they can really take
advantage of Miami’s aggressive help and possibly open up some weak side open 3
opportunities. The Spur’s will again
likely try to run a lot of pick and roll action to get Splitter and Duncan down
low especially if Miami tries playing small.
The Spurs are such a good passing team that they are going to get some
open looks against the aggressive Miami attack but the question remains how
many. Also the health of Chris Bosh is
an underrated key defensively for the Heat; if he is playing well and healthy
then he is a valuable rim protector and a much needed component of the Heat’s
defense. The x-factor may in fact be
Ginobili an inconsistent player, but a dynamic playmaker that can possibly
exploit some weaknesses for the Heat.
Prediction
Overall this series is about as
tight as can be and is practically a coin flip.
The Heat are a better team on paper, but during the post season the Spurs
have seemed like the better team. The
coaching edge goes slightly to Popovich, the league’s best coach, though
Spoelstra is one of the league’s best as well.
However I am going with Spurs in
7 due mainly to injuries. The Spurs
are basically completely healthy while the Heat are dealing with unknowns in
Wade, Bosh and Battier.
Stay
Hungry My Friends
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