For my Super
Bowl Preview I’ll try to begin by doing a quick overview of who both these
teams are and how they got here.
San Francisco 49ers
Record 11-4-1
Expected
Record 11.3-4.7
Simple
Rating System 10.2 (3rd in NFL)
Regular
Season DVOA 29.9% (4th in NFL)
Weighted
DVOA (through postseason) 31.9% (4th in NFL)
Key
Offensive Stats: 11th in Points, 11th in Yards, 23rd
in Passing Yards, 4th in Rushing Yards, 5th in DVOA 2nd
in Weighted DVOA, 5th in Passing DVOA, 3rd in Running
DVOA, Turnovers Lost 2nd
Key
Defensive Stats: 2nd in Points, 3rd in Yards, 4th
in Passing Yards, 4th in Rushing Yards, 2nd in DVOA, 6th
in Weighted DVOA, 6th in Passing DVOA, 2nd in Running
DVOA, Turnover Recovered 14th
Special
Teams: 20th in DVOA, 17th in Weighted DVOA
Turnover Differential: +9 (8th in NFL)
Playoffs: 1st
Round Bye
Beat Green
Bay Packers 45-31 in Divisional Round
Beat Atlanta
Falcons 28-24 in Conference Championship
Baltimore Ravens
Record 10-6
Expected
Record 9.4-6.6
Simple
Rating System 2.9 (12th in NFL)
Regular
Season DVOA 9.8% (8th in NFL)
Weighted
DVOA (through postseason) 16.1% (7th in NFL)
Key
Offensive Stats: 10th in Points, 16th in Yards, 15th
in Passing Yards, 11th in Rushing Yards, 13th in DVOA, 11th
in Weighted DVOA, 15th in Passing DVOA, 7th in Running
DVOA, Turnovers Lost 2nd
Key
Defensive Stats: 12th in Points, 17th in Yards, 17th
in Passing Yards, 20th in Rushing Yards, 19th in DVOA, 12th
in Weighted DVOA, 13th in Passing DVOA, 26th in Rushing
DVOA, Turnovers Recovered 14th
Special
Teams: 1st in DVOA, 10th in Weighted DVOA
Turnover
Differential +9 (8th in NFL)
Playoffs:
Beat Indianapolis Colts 24-9 in Wild Card Round
Beat Denver
Broncos 38-35 (Overtime) in Divisional Round
Beat New
England Patriots 28-13 in Conference Championship
How the 49ers got here
As shown
from the stats above, the 49ers this season were a dominant team on both sides
of the ball that was one of the best teams in the league throughout the season. They played great most of the year, and
looked like a dominant team going into Week 11 at 6-2, playing 6 great games
and 2 terrible games. Then Alex Smith
got injured and the 49ers tied the Rams and the 49ers looked like they might
begin a downward spiral with a tough game against the dominant Bears defense coming
up. They were starting quarterback making
his first start against the best defense in football after a tie against a
below average tie. The team dominated
the Bears, led by a great performance by Colin Kaepernick who played shockingly
well. Kaepernick played great the rest
of the season leading the team to a 5-2 record in the games he started. Kaepernick then in the playoffs had one of
the greatest playoff performances of all time as he led the 49ers over the
Packers. He then led a dramatic come
from behind performance over the Atlanta Falcons. The defense this season was amazing led by
awesome linebackers Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman along with pass rushers
Justin and Aldon Smith. The issue has
been that since Justin Smith has gotten hurt the pass rush has disappeared and
arguably the best pass rusher in the league has completely disappeared.
How the Ravens got here
The Ravens
got off to a great start to the season highlighted by their dramatic win over
the New England Patriots. The team
started 9-2 with wins over the Bengals, Steelers, and Bengals and looked like
the Super Bowl contender they became.
They probably weren’t playing as good as their record indicated though;
they had multiple close wins against average to below average teams. The team then collapsed down the stretch
fading and finishing 1-4 down the stretch run.
Joe Flacco played average through the years, they didn’t commit to the
running game as much as they probably should have, and the defense which faced
many injuries was about league average. Then
in the playoffs the Ravens beat the Colts fairly handily but then they pulled
off huge upsets against the Broncos and Patriots. Joe Flacco the quarterback who was average
throughout the season and through most of his career but in the playoffs played
two amazing games to pull off those dramatic upsets. The defense played better than it played all
season and really the only part that struggled was their Special Teams, which
is supposed to be their strength.
The Pick
The 49ers
are going to win the Super Bowl this year and win it by a fairly heft
margin. The 49ers have the better coach,
the better offense, the better defense, and the more dynamic team. This season the Ravens played an option
quarterback once this year against the Redskins. RGIII played great, throwing for over 200
yards, a touchdown, while running for 30 yards, and didn’t turn the football
over. The 49ers offensive line should
dominant the point of attack with their offensive line. The recipe for Ravens success is probably
getting a special teams play and getting big plays in the passing game with
Justin and Aldon Smith playing limited.
I expect Kaepernick to have a huge game though because I don’t see the
Ravens aging defense keeping up with their speed or physicality. Now the Pick!
49ers 27-13!
Stay Hungry
My Friends
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