NFL Week 7 Picks

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Ok I understand this pick was wrong but I think this is a good time to go over one of the craziest subtle happenings in the gambling world.  The 49ers were up by 7 with 43 seconds the Seahawks had the ball on their own 4 with 43 seconds left, making the game essentially over.  The Seahawks gained 16 yards on the next pass, short of the 1^st down, but were called for a chop block in their own endzone, resulting in a safety.  The 49ers seemingly were going to go up 9 and seal the game, and mean that the 49ers would cover the spread.  However to absolutely ensure the game they declined the penalty so they could kneel the ball and not have to worry about a fumble.  So the 49ers won the game, but the decision had widespread implications in the gambling world, showing how playing football and betting on football don’t always match.

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) over Tennessee Titans

Well I’m going back to picking the Bills this week because I think so far the Bills have shown this season that they can in fact beat bad teams.  Without question the Titans are a bad team and really when it comes down to it there is a chance that they are the worst in all of football.  I know right now they have 2 wins but they have been pretty lucky in both games and I don’t think that they are going to be able to sustain victories like that throughout the season.  So hopefully the Bills win led by their talented running backs and their hopefully resurgent defensive line.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) over Cleveland Browns

This line is saying that the Browns are a slightly better team the Colts.  Look I like the Browns and think that they are a little underrated.  However I think across the board the talent difference between Cleveland and Indy is pretty close, but Indy has an advantage at the quarterback position. I think Luck rebounds from his worst performance as a pro to have a big week and lead the Colts to victory.

St. Louis Rams (+5.5) over Green Bay Packers

The Rams this season have proven one thing that at home this team is very difficult to play.  They are 3-0 at home right now with wins against, the dangerous Washington Redskins, the at the time undefeated Arizona Cardinals, and the pretty good Seattle Seahawks.  I would be shocked if St. Louis at least didn’t make this game close, especially considering the only game they haven’t been close in is a loss to what might be the best team in football, the Chicago Bears.

Minnesota Vikings (-6) over Arizona Cardinals

Well the matchup between the NFC’s surprising upstart teams.  I like the Vikings this week because to me the Cardinals are on the road to a long losing skid.  Their offensive line has been horrific all year and when matched up against a front 4 like the Vikings that could be a serious problem.  I that for the most part it will be a low scoring affair but in the 4^th quarter the Vikings break it open to get the lead into double digits.

Washington Redskins (+5.5) over New York Giants

Well I think there are a couple of distinct things about the Giants, they are better on the road than at home, and right when you think you have them figured out, they play the opposite.  This week seems to be set up for that perfectly and I think this week the Giants fall prey to RGIII and his dynamic abilities.  My guess is after last week’s dominating victory that the Giants will play a little worse this week and that sets up perfectly for an upset.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) over New Orleans Saints

This line doesn’t make sense to me.  The Bucs are at home, have a better record and a better point differential and yet are underdogs to the Saints.  At this point the Saints are just coasting off reputation as there is no way at this point they should be favored on the road.  They probably have the worst defense in all of football and while Josh Freeman has struggled at points this season he probably has an easy week coming up.  The Bucs are better than most people realize, and I think that this week that comes to fruition when the Bucs move to 3-3 with a pretty easy win over the Saints.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) over Carolina Panthers

This week pretty much amounts to a must win game for the Cowboys and I think they pull it off.  This team is 2-3 right now but has played an extremely difficult schedule and to me they should be able to pull off the victory.  They are playing a Panthers team that doesn’t utilize its biggest strength, their running game, nearly enough and if they aren’t doing that aren’t that difficult a team to play.

Houston Texans (-6.5) over Baltimore Ravens

Well the Texans lost their first game this season, but I think this week they make a statement and go forward as the top team in the AFC.  The Ravens at this point are a little lucky to have the record they do and considering all the injuries they have on defense this would be a good point for them to regress a little.  I can’t see the Ravens slowing down the Texans considering at this point every top level defensive player on the Ravens is at least playing injured, and some of their top players are out for the season.  The Texans while not perfect should be able to manage fine this week as they run the ball all over the depleted Ravens defense.  Also J.J. Watt will probably be seeking vengeance after the defensive performance the team put forth last week. 

Oakland Raiders (-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Well an interesting matchup of what are two of the worst teams in all of football.  This game is probably going to come down to if either running back is able to make a few big plays and which quarterback makes fewer mistakes.  Shockingly I’m going to go with Carson Palmer and the Raiders, but that might just be because I don’t have it in me to take Blaine Gabbert in a road game.

New England Patriots (-10.5) over New York Jets

This spread is without question at least 3 points too high right now.  The problem is that even though this is the case I can’t talk myself into taking the Jets this week.  The Jets quite frankly are a flawed team that each and every week I am going to have to talk myself into finding a case for.  However, I think Brady comes back with a vengeance this week and takes advantage of the lack of Darrell Revis in the secondary and the Patriots win with a big aerial attack.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

I don’t know if this is me more believing in the Steelers or not believing in the Bengals but I am going with the Steelers this week.  I think the last two weeks have shown one thing about the Bengals, they aren’t that good.  However, the problem might be that the Steelers aren’t that good either.  I think Big Ben and the defense rise up to the challenge this week with a couple of big plays in the passing game and a few turnovers to pull out a victory this week.

Chicago Bears (-6.5) over Detroit Lions

Well this past week sealed the deal with the Bears, that team is awesome.  Playing at home against a team that offensively is kind of one dimensional, I couldn’t love this pick any more.  I’m sure they will double cover Calvin Johnson and with a pass rush that can generate pressure without blitzing I don’t know how the Lions counter.  Jay Cutler should be able to make enough plays in the passing game to score a few touchdowns, and the funny thing is with the kind of defense the Bears play, he might not have to. 

Stay Hungry My Friends