NFL Week 5 Picks

NFL Week 5 Picks

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) over St. Louis Rams

Well my first pick of the week didn’t go as expected.  I thought the Cardinals’ defense would lead them to a dominating effort over the Rams, but obviously this did not prove to be the case.  I will give more thoughts on this week’s game during the Week 5 NFL Weekly Recap.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

This week I see the Dolphins winning their second game of the season in an upset victory over the Bengals.  They have lost their last two games in overtime and in many ways should have beat both the Cardinals and Jets, two pretty talented teams.  I thought this team was a potential sleeper before the decision to start Ryan Tannehill, and now that he seems to be better than expected, I don’t see why they still can’t be that team.  Reggie Bush has been really good since he became the full time starter in Miami and the defense is still a solid unit.  I haven’t been in a believer in the Bengals at all, and I think this game will reinforce my beliefs about the team.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over Green Bay Packers

To me this game comes down to the fact that I just don’t think the Packers are that great a team.  They have serious issues running the football, and the passing attack while still very good isn’t as elite as it was last year.  I think while the Packers probably end up pulling the upset off in the end that the Colts make it close after a big performance by Andrew Luck.

Baltimore Ravens (-6) over Kansas City Chiefs

This is one of the easiest games for me to pick this week.  To me the Ravens are one of the best teams in all of football, while there is a good chance that the Chiefs are the absolute worst.  The Ravens have a vastly improved offense compounded with a, if overrated, still great defense.  The Chiefs on the other hand have, Jamaal Charles… that’s about it.  No other player on the team scares me or would I expect to go out there and play a great game.  If the Chiefs were to beat the Ravens, even in Kansas City, honestly I would be totally shocked. 

Cleveland Browns (+10) over New York Giants

This year the Browns have lost games by 1, 7, 10, and 7 points, and now you are expecting me to believe that they are going to lose a game by more than that to a team that struggles at home.  The New York Giants are a historically mediocre home team that seems to play horrible games at the moment you would least expect.  I feel like the Giants are due for a bad game, and I would be surprised if Cleveland didn’t play them tough this week. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

I see the Steelers pulling out the victory in the battle between the Pennsylvania teams.  They should be well-rested coming off a bye week and have James Harrison and Troy Polamalu returning to the starting lineup.  The Steelers are due for a good game, as I still think they are among the elite teams in the NFL.  Anyway the Eagles are completely unpredictable, and when facing a blitzing defense like the Steelers it seems like a recipe for multiple patented Michael Vick turnovers.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) over Washington Redskins

As impressed as I am with all that RGIII has done this season, I can’t see the Redskins making this game that close.  Their defense is very bad, and I just don’t see them slowing down an explosive offense like that of the Falcons.  The Falcons are playing great right now, as Matt Ryan is the frontrunner for MVP, and personally I think a strong defense is going to be a necessity this season to beat the Falcons, something the Redskins dearly lack. 

Seattle Seahawks (+3) over Carolina Panthers

Right now I’m picking the team whose week to week performance seems like it is going to be fairly consistent throughout the season, the Seahawks.  Their games this season seem like they are always going to be low scoring affairs, as the combined points in their games have been 36, 34, 26, and 32.  It is obvious even from that, that the defense is quite good, while the offense definitely struggles at times.  The Panthers on the other hand seem to be an unpredictable team that loses low scoring close games against “bad” teams, the Buccaneers, gets dominated by the Giants, and plays in high scoring close games.  I don’t think that this Panthers team is that good, especially if they refuse to run the ball offensively, and see them losing to the Seahawks this week. 

Chicago Bears (-4.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bears proved one thing definitely about last week, their defense is among the NFL’s elite.  This team can rush the passer with 4 thanks to Julius Peppers, can stop any team’s running game, and can sit back and play great pass coverage.  Now you are telling me that a defense that good is going to lose a game to Blaine Gabbert.  I see a dominating and pretty easy victory for the Bears this week unless Jay Cutler goes out and throws 4 interceptions, always a possibility.

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) over Tennessee Titans

This is the game where the Vikings have to prove that they are going to stay strong among the league’s top teams.  A home win over a team that without question they should beat is a necessity for any team that wants to contend.  I see them pulling it off as I am a believer in Christian Ponder, Adrian Peterson’s miraculous health, and the defense.  The Titans haven’t had an altogether that impressive performance all season, with their only win coming in a pretty fluky game against the Lions. 

Denver Broncos (+6.5) over New England Patriots

I have watched many many games over the years between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and I can tell you one thing, almost all of them have been close.  I don’t care about Manning’s arm strength or where he is playing, I cannot pick against Peyton Manning playing this game close.  The Patriots should and probably will win this game, but Manning will give the Broncos a chance this week, which might be all they need.

San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) over Buffalo Bills

Well for the first time all season I am picking against the Bills, and I really hope that I am wrong.  Right now though I just don’t see how the Bills compete against the 49ers.  I am sure defensively they will put up a better performance than last week, it’s almost impossible not to, I just don’t think it will be enough.  The 49ers defense is so good that Fitzpatrick will be miserable the entire day either getting hit, trying to force passes or to frequently both.  The 49ers won’t let Fitzpatrick beat them underneath, and if he can’t do that then the Bills offense is completely inept.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) over San Diego Chargers

Now this is a hard game to pick.  Do I pick against the Chargers’ so far missing early season struggles, or do I pick against the interim-interim-coached Saints.  Personally I am going against the Chargers this week, if only because I can’t accept a Drew Brees quarterbacked team being 0-4.  The Saints have lost 4 one score games, and I expect this to be the week for them to break through.  The Chargers eventually have to fold, they don’t start out season’s this well, it’s just not in their nature.   

Houston Texans (-8) over New York Jets

This is my lock of the week and I just can’t picture the scenario where the Texans find a way to lose this game, well except for one… TEBOW!!!!!!!!!!!  Actually though this is probably the week that Tebow makes his first appearance.  The Texans have a great defense, while the Jets are playing on Monday Night Football in front of their home crowd.  If Sanchez struggles early and the Jets fall behind big, something that I expect to happen, then the crowd will turn on Sanchez.  Then they will start chanting for Tebow in front of a national television audience and Rex might not have a choice but to start Tebow.  Right now Sanchez is struggling so greatly, and the Jets team is so bad, that turning to Tebow might be the best rationale solution.  It will buy them some good time in the press and who knows maybe he miraculously turns around the team like he did to last year’s Broncos. 

Stay Hungry My Friends