Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Finals In Review: Heat over Spurs

             
   Wow, what a Finals!  Even as a Spurs fan I can acknowledge this was an all-time great series featuring the league’s two best teams pushing each other as far as they could.  These teams were dead even and I agree with Zach Lowe’s assessment that these teams were basically co-champions.  They brought the best, and even sometimes the worst, out of one another and I honestly believe that if these two teams played each other 100 times, they likely both win 50.  They were that close, but guess what someone had to win and that someone happened to be the Heat.  The Heat won because they had a great coach who built innovate offensive and defensive system predicated on maximizing his unique team’s strengths.  The Heat won because even though they are a team of “superstars” they had a great bunch of role players who understood their roles and maximized their strengths.  Most of all though they won because of Lebron James.  Lebron is the best player in the world and played like it throughout the Finals; he had one of the best game 7 performances ever, and was fantastic, even if the stat sheet didn’t fully show it, throughout the series. 
                Let’s talk about Lebron for a second; right now he is unquestionably the world’s best player.  He was last season and what did he do?  He worked tirelessly in the offseason working on his post-game and to improve his jump shot, the latter being the single most important factor in the Heat beating the Spurs.  This is a player who can beat you so many ways, he is almost impossible to stop driving the basketball, he is one of the NBA’s best passers, he is now an elite jump shooter, o and when fully engaged he is the best perimeter defender in the league.  Let’s forget about trying to figure out Lebron’s legacy, we can do that when his career is over, because right now he is the league’s best player, it’s not close, and he is only getting better.
                There are countless other major stories to be talked about from both sides.  Spoelstra secured his spot among the league’s coaching elites for those who didn’t realize he was already there, going toe to toe with Gregg Popovich and holding his own and even at points getting the better of him.  Dwyane Wade after struggling for most of the post season, came through with some nice performances in the Finals to help secure the team a championship.  Hopefully the realization by America that Chris Bosh is a defensive force and integral component of one of the league’s best and complex defenses.  Wow and the role players seemingly all had their time to shine, whether it be Chris “Birdman” Anderson, the “traitor” Ray Allen, amnesty candidate Mike Miller, Mario “I’m getting yelled at” Chalmers, and the seemingly washed up Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem.  The Heat are a team built around Lebron James but as his Cleveland days showed it takes a supporting cast, and Miami’s was quite underrated, to win a championship.  Their place in history will be complicated by their struggles through the final two rounds of the post season, it will take some time for me to figure out where they rank among the NBA’s last 10 champions, FYI it will be quite high, but this overall was a great team. 
                Now there were two teams in the NBA Finals, and one that in almost any season would have been crowned champion, the San Antonio Spurs.  This team that was so close to winning the championship in what many are going to say was their last hurrah came up just a bit short.  This team was a remarkable collection of talent that was so well coached and so well put together it is truly a shame it couldn’t win the championship.  It had the resurgent Tim Duncan putting together maybe his best season since winning the Spurs won the championship in 2007 and played two epic games to try to close out the series.  Kawhi Leonard looks like a superstar in the making, he likely could have won Finals MVP averaging 14.6 PPG, 11.1 RPG and 2.0 SPG while covering Lebron most of the series.  Danny Green had his epic first 5 games of the Finals where he set the record for most 3 pointers hit in an NBA Finals.  The Spurs are going to be back next season, there is no reason that they can’t be just as good if not better than last season, especially considering how little they got from Manu all season.  They have star players, great role players, a great coach and great management, I can’t think of a reason why they can’t contend next season. 
                Again I just want to appreciate how great a Finals we really saw between these two teams.  It was a historic Finals that I’m probably going to remember for the rest of my life and will be the Finals I judge all others on.  This was so much fun to watch, I hope for it again next season. 

Stay Hungry My Friends

Friday, June 21, 2013

MLB in Review: Who's Your Padre?

Image Courtesy of Kaybee.mlblogs.com

So far June has been anything but your typical month in the MLB. The Yankees offense has become about as lethal as a plastic spoon, a San Diego surge has created a three-game difference between four teams in the NL West, some of the game’s best hitters are guys we’ve never heard of, a preposterous amount of “franchise-altering” prospects have made their debuts and the Miami Marlins have won six of their last nine games.

So, how do we make sense of this seemingly-endless barrage of stories, news and new guys?

This week’s MLB in Review, of course! 

Stats courtesy of ESPN, Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. 

San Diego: Which, of course, in German means: So, as I mentioned above, the NL West is basically a giant, wild mess right now. And it’s tough to see that changing anytime soon considering the team with the highest upside, San Francisco, is currently in fourth place and has inexplicably forgotten how to pitch. Obviously it’s been surprising to see the Giants struggle  so much just as it’s a mild shock to see the Rockies still in contention. Some may even be surprised the Dodgers have been so bad (but they shouldn't be).
However, nothing has been more out-of-nowhere than the San Diego Padres being above .500 in mid-June and contending for the division lead. Perhaps this is because the Padres are the least-relevant franchise in baseball. Despite this being their 45th year of existence, they’ve never thrown a no-hitter, reached the playoffs only five times and were walloped in two quite unmemorable World Series. They don’t attract any free agents and are seemingly always forced to eventually give up their homegrown talent (think Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy). Aside from Tony Gwynn and Ken Caminiti, they have employed very few memorable players.

This year things were beginning to change for San Diego. They employed some genuinely exciting young players; shortstop Everth Cabrera (.305/.382/.414), second baseman Jedd Gyorko (.284/.341/.461) and first baseman Yonder Alonso (.284/.335/.416)  were all having breakout seasons. All are 24-26 years old, all looked poised to create an “infield of the future” with last year’s breakout star, Chase Headley and all three were injured last week.
Since then the Padres have won eight of 10 on the strength of other anonymous, young players. Will Venable (of this catch), Chris Denofria (.271/.329/.373) and some dude named Logan Forsythe have all given San Diego far more than they anticipated on offense. Even Carlos Quentin and Mark Kotsay have contributed (so that’s where they've been…)!

Current winning streak aside, the Padres have a pretty mediocre offense (16th in runs scored) and their pitching hasn't fared much better. They appear to be a mediocre team plagued by injury. But if they can keep holding steady while Cabrera, Alonso and Gyorko are out, they could compete in this totally average NL West. 

Milwaukee’s Best: It would appear the Brewers are headed for their 29th playoff-free season in the past 31 years. Their pitching has been a nightmare. Kyle Lohse hasn’t been the bargain they expected and Yovani Gallardo is sporting a very un-ace like 4.41 ERA. The offense hasn’t been much better. Ryan Braun has landed on the DL, Rickie Weeks has six home runs with a .217 batting average and Yuniesky Betancourt has somehow been worth a full win less than a replacement-level player.

However, two players who have not disappointed have been Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez.
Gomez (.317/.356/.587) is currently second in the MLB in wins above replace at 4.4. He’s fast (13 stolen bases, eight triples), he has power (12 home runs) and defensive range (1.9 defensive WAR). His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .370 indicates he should see a slight drop-off in production but nothing too serious considering he’s a speedster and will get on base more than the average bear.

Segura is hitting .330/.365/.518 with 22 stolen bases and 10 home runs. Neither Segura, nor Gomez made much noise at the major league level before this season. Gomez was signed by the Mets as an amateur and stayed with the organization until he was shipped to Minnesota in the Johan Santana deal. He was later traded straight-up to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. Segura was the Brewers prize for a half-season of Zach Greinke. Both have been absolute steals for the Brewers so far. Provided Jon Lucroy continues to improve offensively and Ryan Braun isn't banned from baseball, this could be a formidable quartet for the next few years. 


Too Little, Too Late Toronto:
The Toronto Blue Jays have won eight straight and are 25-15 in their last 40 games. This is the team everyone expected when they took on half the Miami roster this winter. But are the Blue Jays this good or is this just a hot streak? Is it possible this group could be playoff contenders this year or in the future?

Quite simply; no. Even after winning 25 of 40, the Jays are last in the AL East and ninth overall in the American League. At some point, this streak will come to an end. In fact, it may be sooner than you think. The Jays next 14 games will come against Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Boston and Detroit. Even if they survive that stretch, the Blue Jays will have a long way to go if they hope to play into October. Last year it took 93 wins to earn a wild card spot in the American League. To achieve that total, Toronto would have to be 58-33 for the rest of the season. Do the Blue Jays have the talent capable of doing that?
Quite simply, the Blue Jays aren’t good enough to make the playoffs. It’s been said that they’ve suffered from injury losses all year. Well, if you build a team filled with old and injury-prone players, you will suffer from injury losses.

Brett Lawrie is hurt and missing significant time for the second year in a row, Jose Reyes is doing the same for the fourth time in five years, Josh Johnson has, predictably, missed time, and R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle have pitched like guys in their mid to late 30’s. The team is currently relying on Adam Lind (.340/.406/.565) and Edwin Encarnacion (19 HR, .877 OPS) playing way over their capabilities and Chien-Ming Wang to pitch in general. This is not a playoff team. It’s not even an above-average team. The Blue Jays will miss the playoffs for the 20th year in a row. 

Prospect Watch
June 2013: the month of the prospect. Yaisel Puig, Wil Myers, Mike Zunino and Zach Wheeler are made their debuts for their respective teams this month. Someday in the future we’ll look back at this month and we’ll remember a time when these guys were nothing more than reasons for hope.

Hot and Not So Hot
Mike Trout appeared to be having a bit of a sophomore slump to start 2013. After hitting only .252/.322/.402 in April, Trout has been red-hot in May and June. He’s run his numbers to .317/.395/.556 with 12 home runs and 16 steals. He’s third in the MLB in extra-base hits with 40 and second in offensive WAR at 4.2. All this and the outfielder from New Jersey is still only 21 years old.

Vernon Wells has essentially had the complete opposite experience of Trout in 2013. After shocking everyone by hitting .309/.374/.580 through 20 games, Wells has, um, struggled in the past month and a half. He’s been on base only seven times so far in June and is hitting .102/.115/.102 for the month. It’s no stretch to say this is the Wells I was expecting when the Yankees traded for him.  

Stay hungry, my friends

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

NBA Finals Running Diary: HOLY EFFFFFF

Image Courtesy of www.USAToday.com
Just as we did last year during Game Five of the NBA Finals between Oklahoma City and Miami, Mike and I will be writing a running diary of tonight’s Game Six between Miami and San Antonio. Yes, this idea was shamelessly stolen by ESPN’s Bill Simmons. So, what?

8:55: I kind of follow the NBA’s logic of starting games at 9 p.m. Eastern time. No child should be subject to  witness the heinous crimes Danny Green is about to commit against Miami’s defense.

9:02: If you don’t get chills watching those pre-game clips of significant moments from Finals history, you probably don’t have feelings or like basketball.

9:04: Miami’s PA guy just called James Jones “a Heat player.” What an embarrassing mistake by him!

9:05: National Anthems before major pro sporting events make me wonder how there are so many prominent singers with terrible voices when there are so many children who can sing beautifully.

9:08: Sweet baby Jesus, Jesse Williams is the most annoying person on this planet. Who’s excited to see him at halftime? Who the hell is he?

9:11 Opening tip won by the Heat. Bosh hits a 20-footer. Game over.

9:12 LeBron just made an absolutely beautiful pass to…oh God, is this a Mike Miller game?!

9:16: So, this isn’t a Dwyane Wade game, eh? And now it looks like he’s hurt. That’s not even the issue. How about not taking terribly ill-advised shots?

9;23: Crazy back and forth action so far. And Kawhi Leonard just smashed Mike Miller into 1000 puzzle pieces. Luckily, the Heat have Juwan Howard to put him back together. Juwan Howard loves puzzles. (Get it? Cuz he’s old!)

9:25: All kidding aside, I hope Juwan Howard gets in this game. Rashard Lewis and Tracy McGrady as well.

9:27: LeBron just attacked the rim for the first time. He NEEDS to be more of a factor than Wade. He just has to be.

9:29: Not surprising or anything but Duncan has been quietly great in the first quarter. 10 points already. He’s so quiet like a mouse that works in a library.

9:30: I just saw Boris Diaw attempt a three. Ok, then.

9:35: Danny Green just took his first shot. And missed. I guess a spot-up shooter shouldn’t win finals MVP after all.

9:38 End of the first quarter, Heat lead by two. Mario Chalmers has been lights out shooing, Dwayne Wade looks awful and LeBron has been more of a distributor than anything. Duncan and Leonard have been awesome; they have 20 of San Antonio’s 25 points. Everyone else has been pretty underwhelming.

9:41: I just saw a tweet that said LeBron has scored or assisted on 24 of 27 Miami points. Ok, I didn’t give him enough credit. And Pop hasn’t been too creative with his boring interview responses lately.

9:43: Hey, Danny Green’s alive and hitting a three, hilariously extending his Finals record.

9:47: And all of a sudden Wade is awesome again. Like Simmons said in his column today, you never know what to expect from him anymore. Miami’s up by six, they look ready to start pulling away…just waiting on a “wow” play by LeBron.

9:50: The worst aspect of these Finals has been watching the commercials for “Back in the Game” on ABC. Walter Mathieu is doing cartwheels in his grave.

9:52: Miami takes a seven-point lead and, just when they seem ready to pull away, they settle for bad shots and let Duncan get the Spurs back into it. By the way, the Big Fundamental is 8-8 with 16 points and four rebounds. Classic close-out performance by him.

9:59 Duncan just missed for the first time on his NINTH shot but the Spurs get the rebound, shoot again, miss again and Duncan gets the o-board and the put-back. He’s 37, right?

10:03: And Duncan is at 21 still in the first half. He’s totally outplaying LeBron this quarter. No question.

10:05: LeBron looks awful and lost on offense. I can’t see the Heat winning if he keeps looking like this. Also, zero assists the first 10 minutes of this quarter and is barely a factor rebounding. Something needs to change with him in the second half. Attack and get fouls or pull up but there’s no excuse for not being able to score 30 when your team needs it.

10:10: The Dos Minutos announcement just happened for the first half while Duncan was dunking home his 25th point to give the Spurs the lead.

10:11: Bosh missed two easy shots and Boris Diaw burned LeBron. The expected and the oh-so-unexpected.

10:12: San Antonio just finished the half on a 17-4 run to take a 50-44 lead. It’s over, stick a fork in ‘em. Miami’s rolling over and settling for jumpers. It’s time to focus on San Antonio and their accomplishments, they deserve it.

10:15: Sportswriters haven’t totally given the whole “Duncan is lights out in closeout games” thing enough attention. He’s one of the great closers of all time and he’s reminding all of us that right now.

10:17: Time for the ESPN Countdown show; a truly underrated experience.

10:18: Holy crap, Magic Johnson just made a good point. WHAT IS THIS SORCERY?

10:24: I literally have no idea what Miami can do to stop San Antonio’s offense. If Duncan’s that on in the second half, forget it. They have to double him and pay less attention to the Gary Neal/Danny Green/Manu types. Their only hope is to score like crazy or for San Antonio to stop shooting incredibly.

10:31: LeBron finally attacks the rim and gets fouled again…and he only hits one free throw…again.

10:37: Danny Green’s attempted floater was the perfect microcosm of why he’s not Finals MVP.

10:41: Mike Miller just drove to the basket to cut the Spurs lead to one…sure is one crazy fever dream we’re all having.

10:46: Tony Parker just made a shot with three guys on him while falling and being fouled. And LeBron has missed some easy lay-ups.

10:51: ABC is currently showing a graphic that shows LeBron is 3-10 so far. Not acceptable.

10:53: Mike Breen says Ray Allen looks shaken up. I think he might just be tired from ring-chasing. Same with T-Mac. That’s why he hasn’t been able to play all series.

10:55: Spurs are now on an 11-0 run. Duncan has 30. LeBron has 12.

10:58: It looks like the best Finals match up in years is going to come and go without a really good game.

11:01: Just as Miami appeared to be going on a run, Parker answered. San Antonio always answers.

11:02: For the record, Ray Allen has had the worst game a future Hall of Famer has ever had in the Finals.

11:05: Third quarter just ended, Spurs are up 75-65.

11:09: Chalmers just hit his fourth three-pointer of the night…just as I said last year, no one will remember how important he was.

11:10: Mike Miller just hit a three with only one shoe on to cut the Spurs lead to four. Yup. Because, Mike Miller. That’s why.

11:14: Tiago Splitter has hit two shots this quarter already. I know the Spurs are a pro basketball team and not a Catholic high school but they can start a “God’s on our side” chant whenever they want.

11:18: LeBron has three very impressive scores at the rim this quarter but as soon as he doesn’t get a call on his fourth drive, he yells at the ref instead of running back on D. Does someone want to let him know this is an elimination game.

11:19: Mike Miller just blocked Tim Duncan. Take a deep breath. Re-read that. Now I’m not sure whose side God is on.

11:22: LeBron just blocked Duncan and then went down and tied it up with a lay-up. I’m shutting up. He’s taking the game back. And now Ray Allen hits a shot to give Miami the lead. I’m really, really shutting up now.

11:25: LeBron’s on triple-double alert now: 24-9-7 with about five minutes to go. Wow. Well that escalated quickly.

11:29: I can’t believe what LeBron is doing this quarter. I’m in awe. No other way to describe it. And I was burying him 20 minutes ago.

11:33: Miami’s D has totally shut down San Antonio. 87-84 Miami with less than three to go. I’m ready for anything.

11:35: I was just about to talk about Ginobli being invisible (-20, 4 points) and then he hits a runner to cut the Miami lead to one.

11:37: Less than two minutes left…San Antonio ball…down by three. Whatever happens these next two minutes, I’ll never forget it. This is why I watch sports.

11:39: I knew Tony Parker would hit that three and he did. He’s just so clutch. And now he gives them the lead with less than a minute left. My God.

11:43: LeBron just ruined everything he’s done all season. Stupid turnover under the rim and an air-ball…what the hell was that?

11:45 I can’t say LeBron screwing up two shots and Ginobli shooting free throws was an ideal ending to the Finals.

11:46: LeBron hits a three-pointer…I don’t know what to think of his performance. 20 seconds left, Spurs ball.

11:49: Kawhi Leonard missing free throw….now way

11:50: NO EFFING WAY

11:51: Ray Allen just…instant classic.

11:52: HERE WE GO

11:53: I can’t believe Parker didn’t make it…we’re headed to overtime.

11:56: Spurs strike first in OT…they were deadly in OT against Memphis.

11:58: I’m pretty sure Ray Allen just committed his 11th foul of the game…how has he not fouled out yet? And Tony Parker just missed a free throw…you don’t win if you don’t make free throws.

12:01: Miami just forced a 24-second violation. People won’t remember how important their D was to this game. Totally rebounded after a terrible game and a half. The Heat now have the ball and the lead with just over a minute left.

12:06: HUGE turnover by Manu (no surprise)…AND THEN NO EFFING WAY DID LEBRON JUST DO THAT! WHO ARE YOU, LEBRON?

12:08: Once, again: this is why I watch sports. Spurs ball and…(waiting during timeout)…BOSH WITH A BLOCK. And LeBron James with a rebound…triple double.
12:10: GINOBLI…lost the ball again! Ray Allen to shoot free-throws…I’m shaking and I don’t have feelings toward either team.

12:11: Spurs get the ball back with 1.9 ticks left…they’re down three. I think they really might have to get the ball to Neal or Green right now. Duncan isn’t a great three shooter, neither is Parker, Ginobli is a mess…Splitter is Splitter.

12:12: And a block by Bosh ends the best NBA Finals Game in years. Drive home safe, folks…here’s a couple thoughts on tonight’s action:

1.       Danny Green just pulled an all-time no-show. That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who’s watched more than 10 basketball games. He’s in a good situation and can shoot threes like no one’s business.

2.      LeBron is clutch...no he’s not!...Yes he is! LeBron If Duncan’s the Big Fundamental, LeBron is the Big Enigma.

3.      Hey, I found the perfect walkout song for Ray Allen And Dwyane Wade!

4.      That performance by Duncan was incredible. 30 points and 17 rebounds. And I don’t know if he can do it again in two nights. That was truly remarkable.

5.      Ginobli was God awful. Just incredible, he can take the blame as much as anyone.

6.      As I type this, the countdown crew is talking about how many mistakes Popovich made tonight. I can’t believe this is happening even while it’s going on.

7.      LeBron’s fourth quarter was the best I’ve ever seen an athlete do anything ever. The Big Enigma strikes again.

8.     This hasn’t been a great series, but this is the best basketball game I’ve ever watched. I’m still in awe. The Spurs had the game wrapped-up…and it slipped away. But now they get their first Finals game seven. They finally have a worthy opponent. They finally have a Finals people give a crap about. Game Seven will be EPIC.

9.      There has been a ton of talk about legacies surrounding this series. And for once, this storyline is justified. We have two of the best players of all time facing off, at least six, maybe seven Hall of Famers (Allen,  James, Duncan, Parker, Wade, Ginobli and maybe Bosh), a few memorable, important players from this generation (Battier, T-Mac), a budding star in Kawhi Leonard, Chris Anderson, Mike Miller and Norris Cole’s collective hair and the league’s two best coaches. Oh and Pat freaking Riley is involved. You’d be hard pressed to find a Game Seven that features more historically important basketball people in NBA history.


12:45: Gregg Popovich is coming to the podium…goodnight and stay hungry, my friends. 

Greatest Game Ever: Drebot Game 6 Running Diary

                                        (Image courtesy of SI.com)
              This is going to the 2nd Hungry Dog Blog double running diary, following last year’s Thunder vs Heat game 5 which was quite a blowout and not the most interesting of games.  Well I’m expecting a better performance from this year’s game and my cousin Evan will be making an appearance, along with my brother Chris.  I expect a good blend of analysis and humor, the sad part is Kendrick Perkins isn’t here, so I don’t know who I’m going to complain about tonight, I guess we will find out.  So let the games begin!
9:09- Game is about to start, I’m pumped; I’ve fully enjoyed this series even though most of the games have been blowouts.  Both teams have at different points played basketball at about as high a level that it could possibly be played.
9:11- Heat winning the opening tip followed by Chris Bosh making a midrange jumper a key for Miami, then followed by a classic Tim Duncan bank shot. 
9:12- Mike Miller 3, that spacing is going to be a key component for Miami tonight.  Also Evan hasn’t arrived yet this could be quite hurtful. 
9:13- Chris Bosh active tonight with a nice tip in and he had a goaltending earlier. 
9:14- Why Leonard with an And 1 over Lebron James, nice play as the Spurs take a 9-7 lead early. 
9:16- Duncan throws it down with a big dunk, 6 early points for him, and now D Wade has an offensive foul and seems to be hurt, could really kill the Heat’s chances tonight if he doesn’t play well. 
9:21- Duncan scores again, on a tough post shot, but then Wade gets an easy dunk on a bad Spurs rotation. 
9:22- Leonard just had an awesome dunk, a classic one hand throw down from him!  As it goes to commercial, overall great offense so far, but both teams are missing some rotations defensively as the Spurs open with 18-16 lead with 5:56 left in the 1st
9:24- Also Evan just showed up so I told him the pressure is on for him to say interesting things, he doesn’t want to fold under the pressure. 
9:26- Watching the replay on that, Mike Miller is dead. 
9:27- Lebron actually does something positive against Boris Diaw drawing a foul, that sentence looks really strange.
9:30- Boris Diaw’s Boobs just had an airball, quite funny
9:32- Duncan playing like Danny Green today, he’s 6-6 from the field, he doesn’t miss.
9:33- Miami ties the game at 24 after Battier tied the game banking in a 3, if Battier is making 3s like that the Spurs aren’t changing their defense.
9:35- Danny Green missed!
9:37- Miami up 27-25 after the 1st quarter, great game now the best part is coming up Gregg Popovich’s between quarter interview. 
9:39- Evan and Chris are trying to get me to order a Stinger Pizza from Imperial, aka the greatest pizza ever but also a heartattack, strange decision making by me.
9:41- Only one question today, wow, and Pop wasn’t even that much of a jerk.  Good job by Dorris Burke there.
9:42- Shane Battier actually makes a corner 3, him making a 3 completely changes there team, also Danny Green makes a 3 because HE NEVER MISSES!
9:45- Tiaggo Splitter is basically lost all there at this point, I’m a huge fan of his but Duncan is going to have to play more minutes to make up for his weakness. 
9:51- Gary Neal, San Antonio’s Irrational Confidence Guy, they normally don’t have those guys.
9:52- Mario Chalmers is Miami’s Irrational Confidence Guy, and might be the best at it considering he thinks he’s the best point guard in the NBA.
9:53- Bill Simmons had a correct prediction this post season!  Tim Duncan 8-8 so far, he predicted a throwback performance.
9:55- Evan and Chris having very passive aggressive confrontations which in actually are more just blatant insults.
9:58- I have agreed to eat the Stinger Pizza, I am prepared to die now. 
10:03- Duncan the best player on the floor tonight, dominating down low, is going to force Miami to change the way they are playing defense tonight.
10:04- Evan is questioning whether or not J Howard can play right now, I totally want to see him against Tracy McGrady in a game.
10:06- at&t commercials are honestly the greatest thing ever, I’ve watched all of them a million times and I laugh every time.
10:10- Duncan scores his 25th point today on just an awesome pass from Boris Diaw, also Chris Bosh is pretty terrible offensively at this point.
10:11- Boris Diaw putting the team on his boobs with a nice layup right there.
10:12- Leonard with an incredible tip in to take a 50-44 lead at halftime while Tim Duncan is having an all time performance with 25 points and 8 rebounds at halftime, just wow!
Also Tim Duncan having this performance is so gratifying, he is my favorite player ever and he is taking the Miami Heat to school tonight.  An array of awesome post moves and his defense has been pretty great as well. 
10:23- Well WhoDunnit? Aka Clue the reality show, Evan and I have decided to that we need to watch the first episode and make fun of it.
10:30- GINOBILI! Finally makes a shot as he starts the 2nd half with a 3!
10:32- Wade coming back from the locker room, while Tim Duncan continues his dominance with another easy bucket
10:38- with 7:37 left in the 3rd Miami’s already in the penalty after a turnover and foul by Ginobili, he has been awful today.
10:40- Miami cuts it to 1 with an easy layup because everyone on San Antonio kind of assumed they didn’t have to help on a Mike Miller drive.
10:45- Evan makes a great point, Mike Miller looks like he is constantly in pain. 
10:45- Chaotic possession, Evan suggests the Spurs should slow it down and then Parker draws and And 10:47- This officiating crew has decided they are calling everything today, interesting to see how this works out. 
10:50- Evan asks the important question during commercials who has sold out more, Bill Simmons or Iced Cube?  Then more astutely has anyone sold out more than Iced Cube.
10:52- Leonard with a steal and an And 1, bringing out the most underrated part of Boris Diaw being able to cover Lebron, Leonard is able to guard Wade. 
10:53: TIMMMMMMMMMMAAAAAYYYYYY! And 1 for Tim Duncan with the offensive rebound!
10:57- Joey Crawford out to prove that he doesn’t hate the Spurs, has decided to call a foul on every Spurs position.
11:00- Lebron complains about a no call so Tony Parker gets an open shot. 
11:01- Now Wade comes back lazily on defense so Gary Neal is able to get an open shot.
11:04- After 3 quarters the Spurs are up 75-65 on the Heat playing a sensational game.  The Spurs defense has been terrific, Lebron hasn’t been making jump shots and they are contesting everything at the rim, and the referees are completely in the Heat’s head right now.  The Spurs one quarter away from a 5th championship. 
11:10- Gary Neal just gave up a wide open Mike Miller 3 for no apparent reason, also Miller did it on one sneaker!
11:12- The Lone Ranger, the stereotypical Native American, the making of a box office flop
11:14- Splitter with another hook shot, he’s needed to provide enough offense while Duncan sits and that helps right there
11:15- Duncan returns, hopefully he has enough for the last 9:23 with the Spurs up 5
11:20- These last 7:08 are going to be epic!  San Antonio up 2, can’t wait to see who wins
11:21- Lebron blocks Duncan then gets a layup next to him, huge sequence right there to tie it
11:25- This 4th quarter from Lebron is all time great, I don’t care how this ends up, to anyone in the world that says he’s not clutch doesn’t actually watch basketball
11:32- Miami up 87-84 with 2:57 left in this game just wow!  I don’t know who is going to win but the Spurs played 3 amazing quarters while Lebron James is playing a quarter about as well as one can be played. 
11:38- Spurs ball with 1:47 left down 3, Tony Parker is going to have to make a play, he has struggled all game, he needs to score hear or create for someone else.
11:39- Tony Parker hits a remarkable 3 to tie the game!!!  Now he gets the steal at the other end, he then hits the turnaround jumper in the lane to take the lead!!!!!
11:42- Spurs get another turnover with a nice Duncan deflection while Ginobili goes to the line for 2 free throws
11:43- Ginobili hits both and Spurs go up 4 with 37 seconds left
11:44- Lebron blocked by Leonard and Ginobili gets the rebound and gets fouled with 28.2 left and goes 1-2 from the line to go up 5.
11:46- Lebron misses the 3 then hits a 3 to put the Heat down 2 with 20 seconds left, I don’t know who wins.  Crazy quarter by Lebron James right here, super impressive.
11:48- Tim Duncan inbounds it to Leonard here, I BELIEVE IN HIM!
11:49- one of two, 3 point lead
11:50- Lebron misses a 3, Bosh with the rebound then RAY ALLEN 3 TO TIE AT 95!
It is under review, but it is clearly a 3, 5.2 seconds left for Spurs to get a chance to win
11:52- WE ARE GOING TO OOOOOOOOVVVVVVVEEEEERRRRRTTTTTIIIIMMMMMEEE!!!!!
THIS IS THE GREATEST BASKETBALL GAME I HAVE EVER SEEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
11:53- I have no idea who is going to win this game I just know it is amazing, wow this year’s running diary far surpasses last year’s.  Go Spurs Go but Jesus this game is so awesome!
11:55- Spurs take the OT lead, with a Leonard layin on the feed from Parker
11:56- Terrible foul by Ginobili and Bosh has a chance for a 3 point play, which he doesn’t convert, game is tied
11:57- Leonard with another score off the offensive rebound and assist by Diaw
11:59- Steal by Parker and now he does to the free throw line but misses the first, but makes the 2nd, Spurs up 3 with 2:40 left
12:00- Ray Allen with a nice runner in the lane score 100-99
12:01- Lebron gets a nice bucket, Miami up 1
Now Miami forces the 24 second violation, Heat up 1 with the ball with 1:18 left in the game
12:04- Lebron misses and Leonard gets the rebound, timeout Spurs, they have the ball with 55 seconds left
12:06- Ginobili turnover then great transition defense by Danny Green forcing a turnover with 45 seconds left, this game is so insane!
12:07- the call is reviewed, Spurs ball, can this game never end!
12:09- block by Bosh, Lebron gets the ball and is fouled, do the Spurs foul with 31.3 seconds left
12:10- Ginobili lost the ball, thought he was fouled, no call and Ray Allen goes to the lineup 1.9 left, he makes both and the Spurs call a timeout
12:11- Spurs down 3 with 1.9 seconds left,
12:13- Bosh with the block on the game tying shot, we are getting a game 7!
                This is one of the greatest games I’ve ever seen! Lebron was unbelievable, the Spurs were unbelievable, why does this series only have one more game left?  I’m not sure how much the Spurs have left I know, but I feel like we are in line for another remarkable game. 
                Ok now a few more quick thoughts from this game and what to expect from game 7
·         The talk of this game is likely going to be on Duncan’s first half, and Lebron’s unbelievable performance but there were multiple other factors at play
·         Chris Bosh after playing a terrible first half and getting abused defensively, was a dominant defensive force in the 2nd half blocking shots and overall changing the dynamic of the game, he is the most highly criticized member of the Big 3 and probably deservingly so but wow did he change the game in the 2nd half
·         For San Antonio looking at the stat sheet it was quite clear that actually only two players on their team played a good game, Duncan and Leonard.  Leonard’s performance will probably be the most underrated through all this but the guy had 22 points, 11 rebounds and 3 steals on 9-14 shooting in a closeout game, a great performance by him, he was really the Spur’s most reliable player all game long
·         I’ll also say this I think Popovich is the best coach in the game but he made some curious substitution decisions that may have ended up costing the Spurs the game, most notably not having Tim Duncan on the floor to rebound on the play that resulted in Ray Allen’s game tying 3
·         Now I think most people right now don’t believe the Spurs have a chance in game 7, but I disagree.  They played great defensively for much of the game and scored at a fairly efficient rate.  However offensively really only Duncan and Leonard played well for the team and it will take a good effort from Parker and Ginobili, who was remarkably terrible with 8 turnovers, to give them a chance.  I honestly have no clue who is going to win game 7 but if is anything like the quality of game 6, I will be looking forward to it.

Stay Hungry My Friends

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Overlooked Stanley Cup Final Angles and Prediction

Image courtesy of loveofhockey.areavoices.com
Tonight begins what some have speculated will be one of the best Stanley Cup Final matchups in recent memory. I won’t jink the series by making such a claim as I did with the Conference Finals.

When Boston and Chicago face off tonight in the first Stanley Cup game between Original Six rivals in nearly three and a half decades, people will tune into see how Boston’s stingy-doesn’t-even-begin-describe-it defense will plan to slow down Chicago’s creative and deadly offense.

But of course it’s not that simple. There’s so much more going on here than an inevitable seven-game series where either Tuukka Rask or Patrick Kane prevails. Each series (and Finals matchups especially) is filled with storylines, matchups and angles you didn’t consider. Legacies will be altered, created, built upon and possibly destroyed.
So here are NUMBER angles, matchups and storylines besides Chicago’s offense and Boston’s defense:

1.       Kane and Jonathan Toews have been ….ordinary? Kane’s hatrick in the Game Five clincher over Los Angeles seemed to have made everyone forgot that Kane has been quite ordinary this postseason. Through the first 16 games against Minnesota, Detroit and Los Angeles, Kane had only three goals and eight assists. His possession and corsi  numbers took a slight hit as well. But he wasn’t necessarily playing much worse. He’s a creator above all else. He’s not much of a physical force or defensive presence and he’s been document to have been immature at times. But there are few players in the league who create offense the way he does. He has still taken plenty of shots at net this postseason and as Gave Five showed, it was only a matter of time before he started to break through. Don’t count on that consistently happening against Boston but Kane will require special defensive attention.

Toews, on the other hand, is a bit harder to pinpoint. The 2010 Conn Smythe winner has one goal and nine points so far in the playoffs. And although he’s seemed physically overwhelmed at times, his corsi and fenwick numbers are among the best on his team. Toews is the opposite of Kane: he’s not as creative or dangerous with the puck but he’s a capable scorer and as good in the defensive zone as any forward not named Patrice Bergeron. He’s a point-per-game player who’s widely regarded as a World-Class leader. He’s the perfect two-way forward. It might seem like a stretch, but the only thing plaguing Toews is bad luck and tough individual matchups.

2.      Unlikely Playoff Heroes Bryan Bickell is tied for the Blackhawk team lead for goals with eight while Boston’s David Krejci is on pace to lead the playoffs in scoring for the second time in three years. Yes, you read that right. It’s only been done twice in the past 20 years (Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg). Both players have been vital to their team’s success; who knows if Boston makes it out of the first round without Krejci’s heroics against Toronto or if Chicago is able to make it past Detroit without timely goals from Bickell? Speaking of under-appreciated players…

3.      Best goalie in the world? Is Tuukka Rask inching towards the best goalie in the World status? It would seem so.  This assertion would have been laughable just three years ago when Rask played a major role in Boston blowing a 3-0 series lead to the Flyers while simultaneously blowing his shot at unseating Tim Thomas.
But now he seems to be four wins away from at least moving into the conversation. Rask has posted a .943 save percentage this postseason including an incredible .985 against the high-scoring Penguins. He turned aside an astounding 53 of 54 shots in a Game Three that essentially decided the series for Boston. This isn’t a case of small sample size either. Rask was second to only Sergei Bobrovsky in even-strength save percentage (a more consistent indicator of goalie performance) this regular season. So, yeah, Rask is really, really good. Oh, and he’s a restricted free agent. My guess is, he won’t be going anywhere.

4.      Legacy of each team Winning two Stanley Cups in a relatively short period of time; that one’s obvious. For the Bruins, winning this series would mean winning two Stanley Cups in three years. In the offseason they sign Rask long term, bring back Nathan Horton and they enter 2013-2014 as prohibitive favorites to win a third cup in four years. They’d be given far more attention than after 2011’s championship and may be treated as a model franchise (more on that later). Claude Julien probably gets some Hall of Fame consideration (not joking) and Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara and David Krejci are forever remembered as playoff heroes.

Chicago’s winning scenario is a little less rosy than Boston’s. The Blackhawks would become sort-of hockey’s modified version of the Marlins (Notice: modified. Not as extreme). Only instead of stripping the team after Championships for cost-saving measures, they’re forced too because of salary cap ramifications.

After winning it all in 2010, the Blackhawks found themselves in trouble with the salary cap (that tends to happen when EVERYONE gets a long-term deal) and turned over one-third of its roster in the offseason. The watered-down Hawks finished eighth and sixth in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Both years they bowed out in the first round. Not much of a Stanley Cup defense. This year they’re contenders again but once again they’ll likely face a lot of offseason turnover. They’ll enter the offseason with less than two million dollars in cap room and eight free agents from the current roster. Chances are there’s at least one major trade (and many minor losses) in store for Chicago this winter.

5.      Team-building techniques As I mentioned before, a second Stanley Cup in three years would earn Boston the title of the NHL’s “model franchise.” And that title would be appropriate. Any team looking to rebuild right now (cough cough Sabres) should use Boston as a blueprint.

Look at it this way: the most successful teams in the NHL the last five years have been Detroit, Boston, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New York, Los Angeles, San Jose and Vancouver in some order. We’re shown every year in the postseason why Vancouver and San Jose are poor models, the Rangers haven’t had quite enough success, Detroit hasn’t made the conference final since 2009, Pittsburgh’s been too lucky to replicate and Chicago is forced to constantly strip down and rebuild their secondary units. Boston and Los Angeles are the most workable models. Since they’ve sustained success with less scoring talent, let’s go with Boston.

The Bruins are defensively sound, physically tough, mentally strong and lethal when they know they know they can intimidate you. They have players that deserve to win the Selke, Norris and Vezina.  Bergeron, Rask and Chara are the best defensive-forward/defenseman/goalie trio in the league.

They built around a two-way center in Bergeron, a hulking, intimidating defenseman in Chara who can advance the puck, play special teams, is a threat at the point and can man-handle nearly any forward. They employ a few forwards who always seem to play their best when it matters most in Krejci and Horton, the best hybrid scorer/fighter/hitter in the NHL in Milan Lucic, a world-class pest (incredibly valuable) in Brad Marchand and a solid defensive unit. They have guys like Shawn Thornton who can fight (almost) anyone he squares up with.

The most important factor in Boston’s success isn’t their talent on the ice but the atmosphere they’ve created in the dressing room. They know as well as anyone that character is as important as talent. That’s why guys like Danny Paille who join as free agents immediately take on the personality of the team. It’s why Gregory Campbell would rather finish his shift with a freshly broken leg than go to the bench and leave his team a man down.

Bruins in seven. The long-suffering fans in Beantown can finally rejoice.


Stay hungry my friends.