Image courtesy of SportsIllustrated.CNN.com
As we move into the final two months of perhaps the most exciting MLB season in 15 years, we can began to see teams that have posing as contenders all year fall off and teams that haven’t quite reached their potential ready to emerge. This is, of course, no different than any other season.
In 2011 the Cardinals came on in August after toiling below .500 for much of the season to win the World Series. Last year the Tigers and Giants sat in second place in their respective divisions for much of the season before coming on in August and winning the World Series. It’s not out of the question that something similar could happen this season. So who’s coming on and who’s falling off?
Coming on:
Detroit:
Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have now won 26 of their last 32 games. And while they’re 10-0 in their last 10 games decided by one run or in extra innings, it’s become clear that they’re a team capable of winning the NL West.
The pitching has been incredible lately for Los Angeles just as it has been all season. The addition of Ricky Nolasco makes the Dodgers a tough team to hit against no matter who starts. And of course, Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball again.
The driving force behind this hot streak has been the collective emergences of Yaisel Puig, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez. While Puig and Ramirez have been given plenty of credit for their performance, Gonzalez has gone somewhat quietly unnoticed as he leads the team in average, on-base percentage, home runs and hits.
The Dodgers may now be on-par with St. Louis and Atlanta pitching-wise with just enough offense to win. The only remaining task for them is to hold off the Diamondbacks who sit just two and a half games back for the divisional lead.
Cincinnati: Ok, so losing three in a row isn’t exactly “coming on.” But the Reds are in a better position than most realize. While plenty of attention has been paid to the division-leading Cardinals and the upstart Pirates, the Reds sit only five games out of the division lead. They are more than capable of making a run at the division title. Even if they don’t, they have a fairly comfortable lead in the wild card. Plus the pitching (Arroyo/Leake/Cingrani/Latos/Bailey) to make life difficult for anyone they may have to face off against in the playoffs. Barring some sort of collapse, the Reds will be a playoff team come October. And they’ll be just as much a World Series contender as anyone in the National League.
Tampa Bay: THAT is how you come on in July. The Rays won 21 of 24 to rise from afterthought to AL East division leader. They’re now duking it out with the Red Sox for AL East supremacy.
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of this run is that the Rays now trail only Detroit, Boston, Baltimore, St. Louis and Cleveland in runs scored. Read that again. The Tampa Bay Rays are sixth in THE ENTIRE LEAGUE in runs scored. Obviously calling up Wil Myers has been huge (.328/.354/.537), James Loney has been the free agent steal of the year (.321/.369/.469), Evan Longoria has returned well (.352 OBP, 21 home runs)and Ben Zobrist has done some Ben Zobrist things (team-leading 23 doubles, 2.6 OWAR).
This offensive surge came just at the right time as the Rays are only a slightly above-average pitching team this year. They’ve struggled through injuries to David Price (who has since returned) and Alex Cobb. Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore are a combined 24-6 but Moore has been inconsistent while Hellickson has been average at best much of the season. Roberto Hernandez made 20 starts this season despite an ERA hovering around five.
But now that Chris Archer has been added to the fold, Price has returned and Moore has pitched well of late, the pitching staff seems to be in good order.
Falling off:
New York Yankees: While I think the Soriano deal was a good move for the Yankees, it won’t save them from their impending doom. They’ve been a sub .500 team for the past seven weeks (18-24); that’s not a slump. They’ve lived off the lucky starts of Vernon Wells, Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay but it appears their chickens have come home to roost. All three of those players are now playing at a sub-replacement level. Derek Jeter is the only one of the injured crew that appears will play this season. Kevin Youkalis has been a bust, Eduardo Nunez has been awful given every-day responsibility and Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira have been on the shelf nearly the entire season.
All of that and I haven’t even brought up C.C. Sabathia or Alex Rodriguez yet. This will not be a playoff team.
San Francisco: The San Francisco Giants are a bad baseball team. No bad luck here; they’re 12 games under .500 with a -62 run differential. Sure, Matt Cain hasn’t been himself and Ryan Vogelsong was a train-wreck when he pitched. But could they really have expected more than slightly above average from Tim Lincecum and Barry Zitto?
The same can be said for the offense. The injury to Angel Pagan hurt but a lack of depth hurt even more. The Giants put out three near- automatic outs in a lineup that severely lacks power every night. In just four months they’ve gone from talk of a dynasty to being out of the playoff race before August.
So, that’s that. As you may have noticed, not many teams have exactly fallen off yet. Should make for quite an exciting final two months.
Stay hungry, my friends.
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