Round 1 NBA Playoffs Predictions

Eastern Conference Playoffs

Miami Heat (1) vs Milwaukee Bucks (8)

I’m not going to spend too much discussing this series because at this point the outcome seems quite obvious.  There is no way in hell that the Bucks can beat Miami in a 7 game series, hell it’s going to be extremely tough for them to win one game.  Miami was the best team in basketball this season going 66-16 while playing with the league’s 2^nd best offense and 9^th best defense.  The Bucks were a bad team that got lucky playing in a subpar Eastern Conference that was able to parlay a 38-44 season with the 22^nd best offense and 12^th best defense into a playoff spot.  The real issue for the Bucks though is that if they want to keep their defense respectable it will likely cost them offensive flexibility and if they want to keep their offense strong they will lose any hope of stopping the Heat.  The Heat are just too good offensively and I expect them to bring their defensive intensity to another level this series so Heat in 4 games, bring out the broom sticks.

New York Knicks (2) vs Boston Celtics (7)

This is series on the surface seems like a more compelling series than I think it will be.  The Celtics will always be dangerous when they have Garnett and Pierce, however those two are getting old and the rest of the team just isn’t able to pick up the slack.  This Celtics team which went 41-40 this year combines a mediocre offense, ranked 24^th, with a very good but not quite elite defense, ranked 7^th.  Compared to the 54-28 Knicks who combine the league’s 3^rd best offense and not great but manageable 18^th ranked defense.  Both teams are similar in that they need their center to play to even manage themselves defensively.  The Knicks offense though should be able to get enough open threes to open this series up for the most part offensively as the Celtics struggle to score on them.  I see the Knicks winning in 6 as this team tries to line itself up to be a threat to the Miami Heat.

Indiana Pacers (3) vs Atlanta Hawks (6)

Well the Hawks put together a very nice season after suffering the loss of Joe Johnson and exceded many people’s expectations while going 44-38.  However I just don’t see a way they can beat the defensively dominant Pacers team.  The Hawks as a team are for the most part very jump shot dependent to score point, they don’t offensive rebound well and they don’t get to the free throw line.  The Pacers strength as a team is forcing people to make tough jump shots.  So while the Hawks may end up taking shots they would normally take in games these shots will be considerably less open.  This series will probably end up being ugly with a lot of tough grind it out wins for the Pacers considering while holding the NBA’s top ranked defense they only have the 20^th ranked offense.  The Pacers should be able to shut the Hawks down though and score enough points on the surprisingly 10^th ranked Hawks offense, Pacers in 5.

Brooklyn Nets (4) vs Chicago Bulls (5)

Now this series will likely be the Eastern Conference’s most interesting matchup.  You have the shutdown Derrick Rose less Bulls against the offensive attack of the Brooklyn Nets.  The Bulls have impressively won 45 games this season putting together the league’s 6^th best defense to offset for their 23^rd ranked offense.  This team will need to be flying on all cylinders and will likely need a healthy Joakim Noah to defeat a Nets offense that is ranked 8^th in the NBA.  The Nets one of the best offensive centers in the NBA in Brook Lopez and will need Noah to both make him work offensively and expose his weak defense.  If Noah was healthy I would definitely pick the Bulls in this series but his questionable health combined with Deron Williams’ resurgence into an elite player is making me say Nets in 7.

Western Conference Playoffs

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs Houston Rockets (8)

Well isn’t this series going to be fun?  Oklahoma City plays at the 10^th fastest pace of any team in the league and has the NBA’s best offense while the Rockets play at the fastest pace in the league and have the NBA’s 6^th best offense.  Guarantee for the series it will be fast and many points will be scored.  O I’ve failed to mention the fact that James Harden after being traded from OKC for salary cap reasons now has the opportunity to show his old team what they miss after putting up a career year.  While Houston has the talent to score on OKC, I highly doubt even with center Omer Asik they have a prayer of stopping them.  I would love this series to end up going 7 games, but OKC’s dominant offense combined with their quite underrated 4^th ranked defense should make way for a short series, Thunder in 5 games.

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Well after the windy journey the Lakers are entering the playoffs playing their best basketball of the season as they play the reeling San Antonio Spurs.  This seems to be the trendy upset pick with many thinking even without Kobe Bryant the Lakers can beat the Spurs.  I disagree for many reasons.  For one we’ve seen across the years in many sports that being “hot” or “cold” entering the postseason is largely irrelevant and really the strength of the team only matters.  The Lakers are going to dearly miss Kobe Bryant’s offense, as he scored efficiently at a high volume this season while also being the team’s best shot creator.  The Lakers defense is still weak and slow.  The Spurs still have Tony Parker, two strong bigs in Duncan and Splitter, while providing enough strong shooters around those guys.  The Spurs should be able to effectively matchup with the Lakers’ bigs while the Lakers’ have no chance of matching up with the Spurs’ perimeter players. 

Denver Nuggets (3) vs Golden State Warriors (6)

Well these are two teams that have exceeded the expectations of many basketball fans.  The Nuggets seemed like a strong title threat until injuries to Gallinari and Ty Lawson seemed to threaten their chances.  The Warriors went through a weak start to the season but followed that up with weak middle and a strong ending.  The Nuggets should be able to win another series that should be quite exciting, but combining their almost unstoppable home court advantage and athleticism to a series win.  The Nuggets have a great offense and underrated defense that should be able to slow down the Warriors good but overrated offense and average defense.  I see the Nuggets in 5 in a series that will probably be less exciting than many expect. 

Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs Memphis Grizzlies (5)

Well this series is going to be the best of the 1^st round.  These two teams which finished with an identical record of 56-26 expect to battle in what should go 7 games like last year.  The Grizzlies have lost Rudy Gay but have added Tayshaun Prince a move that to the surprise of many has aided the team’s offense and defense.  The Clippers made many moves in the offseason, most notably adding the great bench players Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes.  The Clippers now 4^th best offense, that while elite is still quite predictable and the league’s 8^th best defense while the Grizzlies have the league’s 2^nd best defense and 17^th ranked offense.  The Grizzlies defense though should be able to eat alive a Clippers offense that at times can be quite predictable.  The Clippers have Chris Paul and Blake Griffin along with a super deep bench so they definitely have the more talented of the two teams.  In this 7 game series though I’m going to say Marc Gasol and the Grizzlies win in 7.

Stay Hungry My Friends