How the NFC West Will be Won Part III: Defense

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(This article is part of a five-part series previewing the NFC West. All articles in the series originally appeared on Stoop Sports.)

Defense will not decide who walks away with the NFC crown in all likelihood. That’s not a statement against the importance of defense in the modern, pass-happy NFL. It’s a reflection of just how incredible the NFC West was as a collective defense last year.

All four teams had, at least, above-average defenses by traditional measures while advanced numbers show St. Louis and Arizona were even better than most perceived.

So who has the best defense in the division; who’s the best of the best?

Arizona: The Cardinals defense garnered some attention early in 2012 when the unit sparked a 4-0 start with wins over New England, Philly and Seattle. And you know the rest of the story. They paraded in a gaggle of inept ball-throwers, causing them to drop 11 of their final 12 games. But what of their defense?
Arizona finished 17^th in the NFL in points allowed with 357. But that’s a poor measurement of their capabilities as a defense. Their hopeless offense was unable to stay on the field causing an inordinate amount of opponent drives. Taking that fact into account, Football Outsiders rated the Cardinals sixth in weighted defense. That’s pretty damn impressive.
But gone are Ken Whisenhunt and defensive wizard Ray Horton and in are Bruce Arians and first-time defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Horton’s widely considered one of the league’s best coordinators so his loss will be a tangible one. Also lost: Adrian Wilson, Kerry Rhodes, Quentin Groves and Greg Toler.
This likely isn’t the defense it was last year. That alone makes it the weakest defense in the mighty NFC West.
St. Louis: The Rams defensive numbers, like the Cardinals, were a tad skewed by a sub-par offense. They were 15^th in points allowed with 348 but were seventh in weighted defense and defensive DVOA. After a year without a defensive coordinator, they hired first-time coordinator Tim Walton. They drafted former Georgia standout linebacker Alec Ogletree in the second round but lost both starting safeties (Dahl and Mikell) to free agency. They appeared to have moved laterally this offseason, improving in some areas while getting worse at others. This will not be enough to claim the top prize in the NFC West.
San Francisco: The 49ers were second in points allowed, defensive DVOA and weighted defense in 2012. They reached the Super Bowl but weaknesses (Whitner, Culliver) in the secondary were exposed by Atlanta and Baltimore in the post-season. They lost safety Dashon Goldson in the offseason but added veteran Nnamdi Asomugha. They will also likely receiver a healthy Justin Smith after the veteran suffered a late-season injury. That’s a bigger deal than most understand; Smith is among the most valuable defensive players in the NFL when healthy (just ask his estranged brother, Aldon).
The Niners made a few other minor deals, bringing in 31^st pick Eric Reid and former Chief Glenn Dorsey. Most importantly, they bring back Pat Willis, Navarro Bowman, the Smiths and Carlos Rogers. They did enough tinkering to remain one of the top three defenses in the NFL. But didn’t do enough to be the best in their own division.
Seattle: Last year no one allowed fewer points (245) than Seattle. However, they were sixth in weighted defense and fourth in defensive DVOA. The Seahawks lost only Alan Branch and Marcus Trufant in the offseason but have plenty of growth to look forward to.
Last year’s defensive line feature the fearsome pass-rushing duo of rookie Bruce Irvin and Chris Clemons. Clemons is one of the league’s best at his position but is recovering from a torn ACL. Irvin had a solid rookie year but has some improvements to make as an every-down player. They also added veterans Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett to what was already a formidable unit. And it will only get better as Clemons’ health improves.
The strength of the defense is their big, physical cornerback duo of Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. Both are at least 6’3 and both were Pro-Bowlers last season. In today’s pass-heavy league, they are rare shut-down corners. They’re incredibly valuable the any defense.
Some, including Football Outsiders, have raised questions about the team’s depth at linebacker. But their ability to rush the passer and shut down nearly every team’s vertical passing game is unparalleled. And the chance for improvement makes them the best defense in the NFC West; the best of the best.
Stay hungry, my friends