How the NFC West Was Won Part IV: Quarterbacks

Image courtesy of www.Seahawks.com

(This article originally appeared last week on Stoop Sports.)

I don’t need to waste too many words here explaining the importance of the quarterback in the modern NFL.

There’s no two ways about it: the right quarterback changes everything.

This is especially true in the 2013 NFC West. Two teams (San Francisco and Seattle) saw their fortunes improve substantially due to young quarterback play. Sure, Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh deserve credit for building their respective teams into contenders, but Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick solidified both team’s places as long-term contenders.

The division’s other two teams, Arizona and St. Louis, are both hoping to see positive returns on big-time investments they’ve made on quarterbacks.

History shows that at least a couple of these situations won’t work out long term. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, only 12 will likely go into the season with the same quarterback they started 2009 with. None of the NFC West teams are among those 12.

Interestingly enough, the division contains two former No. 1 overall picks…and neither is among the two best quarterbacks in the division. So how will each team fare throwing the ball this season?

Also, here’s a quick explanation of any advanced stats I may use in this piece.

Carson Palmer-  The USC product has gone from a Heisman winner/can’t-miss prospect, to a rookie who didn’t throw a pass, to a budding superstar, to an above-average guy on an immature team, to an average QB, to retired, to a national punch line, to irrelevant. And all by the age of 33.

While the perception of Palmer has changed seemingly each season, he has remained mostly the same quarterback (save for 2005 and 2011). A quick glance at some of his 2012 stats could make one think Palmer had a better season than he really did. He threw for 4018 yards and 22 touchdowns, with only 14 interceptions. But his yards per attempt (7.1) and completion percentage (61.1) were quite average.

Of course nearly any NFL season is a small-sample size, and numbers mean very little in a vacuum. The advanced stats created by the folks at Football Outsiders, defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) and defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), put traditional stats into perspective by adjusting for strength of schedule among other factors. These numbers were less kind to Palmer. He was 18th in DVOA at -2.4 (zero is average), 18th in DYAR at 334 and 29th in QBR at 44.7 last year for Oakland.

But Palmer is no longer a Raider, and the move will provide a few positive changes. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are both better than any receiver Palmer dealt with in Oakland. The offensive line struggled for most of last season, but the front office committed to improving the unit in the offseason, bringing in Jonathan Cooper with the seventh overall pick.

The run game couldn’t do much worse than its disastrous 2012 campaign, but still likely won’t be much of a factor in 2013. Considering that, the losses on defense and a tough divisional schedule, it’s safe to say the Cardinals will be throwing the ball around a lot. As a result, look for Palmer to put up big-time traditional numbers (4000+ yards, 20+ TD’s) while remaining an average quarterback for a slightly-below-average team.

Sam Bradford: The 2010 first overall pick and former Offensive Rookie of Year hasn’t quite lived up to expectation the past two seasons. His 2012 numbers were somewhat similar to Palmer’s. His traditional numbers were slightly worse (59.5 comp. %, 21-13 td-int. ratio, 3702 yards, 6.7 y/a) while his advanced numbers were slightly better (-1.2 DVOA, 372 DYAR, 51.6 QBR). Bradford has youth and the chance at further growth on his side as well.

Most important for Bradford is how he adjusts to a litany of changes around him. Gone are old reliables Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson, along with running back Steven Jackson. However, the team used its first-round pick on receiver Tavon Austin who figures to be a big part of the offense.

Bradford ranking ahead of Palmer is really due mostly to his greater probability of improvement. And that improvement will be vitally important for the trajectory of Bradford’s career. This season will decide if the Rams offer him another mega-contract or move in another direction.

Colin Kaepernick: In 2012, the Nevada product went from a back-up/situational player to a Super Bowl starter/possible messiah. So it might be easy to forget he has only started seven regular-season games in his young career. It’s not as if those games weren’t impressive; he tore apart the league’s best defense (Chicago) and went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady before eviscerating Green Bay in the Divisional playoffs and leading the Niners to a second-half comeback in the NFC Championship against Atlanta.

Kaepernick was among the league’s most efficient passers in 2012. He completed over 62% of his passes at an average of over eight yards per attempt. He was also third among QB’s with a DVOA of 25.7%. So no one’s questioning his passing ability (or his rushing ability for that matter); it’s just that seven games does qualify as a small sample size. So it’s not clear whether he’ll struggle a bit more as defenses will be more ready to take on the read-option in 2013, or whether he’ll improve enough that defensive adjustments won’t matter. Such improvement isn’t rare for a player moving into their third season.

Kaepernick’s volume will almost certainly increase in 2013, but it wouldn’t be any great shock if became somewhat less efficient as well.

Russell Wilson: Wilson put up one of the great rookie seasons ever in 2012. He tossed a record-tying 26 touchdown passes to go alongside only 10 interceptions. He completed 64% of his passes for nearly eight yards per attempt. He finished sixth in the NFL with a DVOA of 19.7% and, like Kaepernick, he was quite the threat on the ground with 489 rush yards.

And, also like Kaepernick, Wilson is almost certain to see an increase in usage in 2013, which could presumably lead to a decrease in efficiency. Wilson threw the ball less than 400 times in 2012. Part of that was due to the team’s super-effective rushing attack and part of it was due to Wilson’s rawness early in the season. Either way, he’ll be throwing the ball more often this season.

Wilson wasn’t necessarily better than Kaepernick last season, but we have a full season’s worth of evidence that he’s one of the NFL’s best.

Moving into his second season as the leader of a Super Bowl-caliber team, the sky is the limit for Mr. Wilson.

Stay hungry, my friends

MLB Storylines that don't Involve A-Rod

Image courtesy of ajc.com

If you’re a person who lives in America and cares about baseball even a little bit, you’re almost undoubtedly sick of the constant coverage surrounding a certain New York third baseman.

 

Don’t get me wrong; I enjoy under-qualified, pompous, old, crotchety columnists write recycled, boring stories about how a certain player isn’t worth of life because he doesn’t make children smile or bad feelings disappear with the frequency of Derek Jeter. I just think there might be more to talk about right now.

 

For example…

1. Chris Johnson is currently leading the NL batting title race with a .339 average. No, not that Chris Johnson. The infielder for the Atlanta Braves; he of 28 years and 445 career games. Johnson would be the perhaps the least prominent batting champion since…ever?

 

2. Trout vs. Cabrera: Oh, no. Oh shit, we’re gonna have to do this again, aren’t we? This didn’t seem like it would be an issue for most of the year. That was until Cabrera slowed a bit while Trout did an encore to last year’s Rickey Henderson impression (should I say impression? Because he’s been a far better 20-21-year old than Rickey was). The New Jersey native is now up to .333/.424/.575 with 32 doubles, eight triples, 20 home runs and 24 steals. He’s top five in WAR, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, doubles, triples, hits and walks. If he keeps this up this torrid pace, we’ll be staring down the barrel of yet another disheartening debate.

 

3. Pat Corbin has come out of nowhere to post a 12-3 record with a 2.33 ERA so far this season. And he doesn’t have a realistic shot at the NL Cy Young. This is due to the transcendent efforts of Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw. Each of these guys have put mind-blowing numbers.

 

In his last 37 starts, Kershaw has allowed four earned runs twice, three earned five times, two earned nine times, one earned 11 times and no runs 10 times. That’s it. He hasn’t allowed more than four since last June. Unfreakingbelievable.

 

Matt Harvey has only nine wins but has an incredible 2.09 ERA and .86 WHIP in his first full season.

Adam Wainwright has pitched a league-leading 175.2 innings and has walked only 21 batters for a stunning BB/9 rate of 1.1.

Good luck, NL Cy Young voters. You’ll have your hands full come November.

 

4. Here’s a list of guys who have taken at least 35 at bats for the Yankees this year: Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner, Zoilo Almonte, David Adams, Jayson Nix, Chris Stewart, Eduardo Nunez, Kevin Youkalis, Austin Romine, Luis Cruz, Francisco (steroids don’t always work for everyone) Cervelli, Brennan Boesch, Ben Francisco, Reid Brignac, Chris Nelson, Brent Lillibridge and Alberto Gonzalez. Oh, and Vernon Wells is fourth on with 342 at bats. What a season.

 

5. We’re now 10 years removed from the release of Moneyball and saber metrics have taken on a large role in professional sports far quicker than anyone would have anticipated. There is no greater indicator of this than the success of two of the original “Moneyball” believers: Oakland and Tampa Bay. Both teams are positioned to make the playoffs in the American league despite both being among the bottom five in team payroll in the MLB.

 

6. Just a year removed from their disaster 69-win season, the Red Sox are seriously challenging for a World Series. Much of this success can be traced to a healthy core (Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury), improved pitching (Buchholz, Lester, Doubront) and low-scale free agent signings (Victorino, Dempster, Napoli). Combine that with Bobby V’s departure and this turnaround doesn’t seem all that surprising.

 

7. The Atlanta Braves have the second-best record in baseball, the third-best run differential and have won 13 straight. The Braves now lead the NL East by a cool 15.5 games and have all but assured themselves their first division title in eight years. This all despite losing ace Tim Hudson for the season only a few weeks ago. Even without Hudson, the Braves go five deep with quality starters, have a reliable bullpen and can count on Johnson, Freddie Freeman, Justin Upton and Brian McCann to produce runs.

 

8. The Tigers have the AL Central all but wrapped up but this summer has given hope for a couple franchise resurgences. First, Cleveland is challenging for a Wild Card spot after five consecutive years of missing the playoffs. Also, Kansas City appears to be finally near the end of their 28-year rebuilding plan. And yes, that’s how long it’s been since they’ve been in the playoffs. Even if neither team plays into October this season, both have given their fan bases glimpses into a bright future.  

 

9. The aforementioned glimpses into a bright future was what Pittsburgh fans got in 2011 and 2012 as the Pirates started out hot only to falter in August. This year is that bright future. The Pirates have the best record in baseball (70-44) and will almost certainly play meaningful fall baseball for the first time in 21 years.

 

10. The Giants never really felt like a dynasty-type team; they were never really considered the best team in baseball save for the months of October 2010 and 2012. But them falling this hard and this fast is something no one expected. They’re 51-63 with a    -59 run differential and are in the bottom half of the league in both team pitching and hitting. Matt Cain’s 4.47 ERA is to blame. As is Angel Pagan’s injury, Ryan Vogelsong’s amnesia, Barry Zito’s Barry Zitoing and Pablo Sandoval’s mediocre numbers. It’s hard to believe this is the defending World Series Champion.

Stay hungry, my friends. 

Defending Johnny Football From a Hack-Attack

Image courtesy of www.sportsinsights.com

It seems as though ever since Skip Bayless used Tim Tebow’s wobbly throws and his own incessant shouting to launch himself into a seven-figure contract with ESPN, hacks have invaded all forms of sports media.

 

From criticizing those who use advanced stats (or those who are, in a word: intelligent) to making ridiculous claims just for attention, this growing group has it made it clear that it cares far more about page-views and hate reads than doing quality work.

 

These hacks and attention whores have joined forces with the pretentious “guardian or morality” types to create (yes I said create, they created the story. It’s not news.) the worst story of the year: Johnny Manziel’s immaturity.

 

There are dozens of examples of hack-pieces written by well-to-do, douchebag, crotchety sports writers who act as if they were anointed the arbiters of morality by some supreme being long ago.   

How dare Johnny Football drink alcohol, complain about a parking ticket or wonder aloud why he’s being hounded by the press like he’s John Lennon in 1964?

 

He’s got a job to do. And as everyone at ESPN has made perfectly clear the past two weeks: he’s a leader of men. As opposed to the leader of women, babies, inanimate objects or West African Tree Frogs; in which case he could get hammered and complain about all the parking tickets in the World.

The worst example of a morality-guarding, attention-whoring hack I have seen yet has been the article Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports posted Sunday night entitled: “Johnny Football has spit on all the help Texas A+M has offered him.”

 

Well then! That’s a hell of a start! Nice way to draw the hate-reads in. This headline reads like Manziel was a homeless crack addict whom Texas A+M brought into their collective homes only to find him gone one day along with all their wives’ jewelry. Then he snorted, gargled and hawked a lougie (loogie?) that spanned the entire A+M campus.

 

Dodd: “Shortly after Johnny Manziel won the Heisman, Texas A&M AD Eric Hyman convened a Johnny Football summit in his office. Everyone who mattered was there -- Manziel's parents, compliance, coaches, marketing, SIDs, even the celebu-quarterback himself.

The tone from the head of the athletic department: Everything has changed. Here's how we're going to handle it.”

 

Well I can’t imagine why Ol’ Johnny Football would feel like he was being treated differently than the other players. All they did was “convene a summit” in his name. No biggie; they just invited everyone to a little get-together to let everyone know they’re going to tell the young man single-handedly responsible for making them millions of dollars and putting their school on the football map how to live his life.

 

“The 62-year old Hyman knows a little bit about handling hype. The man who hired game-changer Gary Patterson at TCU, inherited Steve Spurrier at South Carolina and was run over by two-time Heisman winner Archie Griffin as a North Carolina defender, was going to set the ground rules. Hyman went so far as to consult with Florida external relations guy Mike Hill who helped oversee the Tim Tebow phenomena.”

 

So, none of those things actually relate to this situation save for contacting Mike Hill, who did such a wonderful job of keeping that Tebow hype down.

 

“Hyman at least attempted to get out in front of the Johnny Football parade before it ran over him and his department.”

 

And has it? This article was published literally hours after the NCAA announced it was going to investigate the possibility that Manziel was compensated for his autograph. So…

 

1.       No one is in trouble yet. There’s a good chance no one will get in trouble. The Texas A+M athletic department has certainly not been “run over.” Whatever the fuck he meant by that.

 

2.      He’s getting in trouble for selling HIS OWN FUCKING SIGNATURE. He doesn’t own the right to his own name? And these mouth-breathers have the audacity to claim it’s all “worth it” because athletes are entitled to a phony, hollow education?

 

Moving on..

 

"The meeting that Eric Hyman had wasn't a get-after-you, tell-you-what-to-do meeting [for Manziel]," Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin told me earlier this year. "[It was] 'We're here for you. You don't have to handle this on your own.'"

 

If Dodd believes the motive behind this meeting was anything but: “this kid is the key to our financial future and we have to make sure he doesn’t screw up too much or we could be out a lot of money”, then he’s …uh, actually about what I’ve come to expect from CBS Sports.

 

“We now know in one, long tortuous offseason that Manziel has spit on those who have tried to help him. Advice has been discarded like a linebacker trying to wrap up. When news broke Sunday that Manziel may have taken money for signing autographs and memorabilia, it was reminder of how far the parade had veered off the prescribed route.”

 

Wait, advice has been discarded like a linebacker trying to wrap up? What the hell? I don’t think Dodd was paying attention when he was supposed to be learning analogies at Hack University.

I can’t say I have knowledge of exactly what was discussed at this “summit” but I doubt they told Manziel he had lost his right to complain or that he was forbidden to drink alcohol. And of course we can’t forget the alleged pay4autograph scandal that broke roughly minutes before Dodd started typing this. Yeah, the NCAA hasn’t even started investigating yet but that little Manziel bastard is guilty, damn it! Due process is for real people, not college athletes!

 

“Not only is Manziel's eligibility in jeopardy, well, everything has changed. Just don't blame A&M -- its coaches, administrators, lawyers and publicists. If it wasn't already, Texas A&M football has been shaken to its foundation. The Aggies' SEC and national championships hopes have to be put on hold. At least for the four weeks between now and the beginning of the season.”

 

Did I mention he was accused of this hours ago? And, as you’ve made clear, the only reason they’re in the national discussion is because of Manziel. So criticizing him for (probably not) possibly taking away championship hopes he created in the first place is the stuff of hack legend. Congrats, Mr. Dodd.

 

“Please, just don't blame Hyman and A&M. They gave a scholarship to a talent hundreds of other schools would have invested in. It was Sumlin who went to bat for Manziel, helping keep him from being suspended for a year. It was Sumlin who sheltered his quarterback from the media until November it what looks like in retrospect to be a masterstroke.”

 

In other words: they convinced the school to retain a student they normally would have put on probation because he was a talented football player and could generate a lot of money for the school. Oh, that’s sounds irresponsible and misguided when you put it that way.

Oh, and masterstroke isn’t an appropriate word to use anywhere, ever.

 

“What I told his dad and mom at the Heisman [ceremony] is, 'He's no longer a freshman, he's no longer a sophomore, he's no longer a junior, no longer a senior,'" Hyman said. "'He's a Heisman.' From where he is today to where he was a few months ago, he's learned how to handle situations."

“Yes, Hyman was on top of it – until he wasn't. Just don't blame the AD or his staff or the school. They're weren't the enablers. They are one of many victims.”

…….

Um.

….

Sorry, guys. Excuse the delay, but the stupidity in these final two paragraphs made me lose my dinner.

Are you fucking high, Dodd?!

 

Is he seriously attempting to draw pity for the athletic administration for trusting a player who brought them $37 million in media exposure last season? I’m having a tough time believing that. It’s just hard for me to believe that someone who holds a job at such a prominent and powerful as CBS is thoughtless and arrogant that he still thinks that athletic administrations who stand to make millions of dollars on the outcomes of sporting events always act in the best interest of their slaves- er um, student-athletes (Freudian slip).

 

Those poor, innocent school administrators will now have to find other players to whore out for the financial benefit of the school.

 

Dodd had a chance to use his platform to point out the completely ridiculous idea of the NCAA owning someone’s signature. He could have been one of the few writers to ignore Manziel’s minor wrong-doings while criticizing the corrupt and morally reprehensible policies and behavior of those involved with the NCAA.

 

And instead he took a long climb up onto a horse so high, it’s unlikely he was able to hear the rational cries of us mere mortals. He threw all logic and reason aside and crapped all over a kid whose sins pale in comparison to those of the NCAA.

Just don’t blame Dodd or CBS or really anyone for the poor quality of his piece. Because, if we think hard enough, we’ll find a way to blame this all some unpaid CBS intern.

 

Stay hungry, my friends. 

How the NFC West Will be Won Part III: Defense

Image courtesy of Blog.sfgate.com

(This article is part of a five-part series previewing the NFC West. All articles in the series originally appeared on Stoop Sports.)

Defense will not decide who walks away with the NFC crown in all likelihood. That’s not a statement against the importance of defense in the modern, pass-happy NFL. It’s a reflection of just how incredible the NFC West was as a collective defense last year.

All four teams had, at least, above-average defenses by traditional measures while advanced numbers show St. Louis and Arizona were even better than most perceived.

So who has the best defense in the division; who’s the best of the best?

Arizona: The Cardinals defense garnered some attention early in 2012 when the unit sparked a 4-0 start with wins over New England, Philly and Seattle. And you know the rest of the story. They paraded in a gaggle of inept ball-throwers, causing them to drop 11 of their final 12 games. But what of their defense?
Arizona finished 17^th in the NFL in points allowed with 357. But that’s a poor measurement of their capabilities as a defense. Their hopeless offense was unable to stay on the field causing an inordinate amount of opponent drives. Taking that fact into account, Football Outsiders rated the Cardinals sixth in weighted defense. That’s pretty damn impressive.
But gone are Ken Whisenhunt and defensive wizard Ray Horton and in are Bruce Arians and first-time defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Horton’s widely considered one of the league’s best coordinators so his loss will be a tangible one. Also lost: Adrian Wilson, Kerry Rhodes, Quentin Groves and Greg Toler.
This likely isn’t the defense it was last year. That alone makes it the weakest defense in the mighty NFC West.
St. Louis: The Rams defensive numbers, like the Cardinals, were a tad skewed by a sub-par offense. They were 15^th in points allowed with 348 but were seventh in weighted defense and defensive DVOA. After a year without a defensive coordinator, they hired first-time coordinator Tim Walton. They drafted former Georgia standout linebacker Alec Ogletree in the second round but lost both starting safeties (Dahl and Mikell) to free agency. They appeared to have moved laterally this offseason, improving in some areas while getting worse at others. This will not be enough to claim the top prize in the NFC West.
San Francisco: The 49ers were second in points allowed, defensive DVOA and weighted defense in 2012. They reached the Super Bowl but weaknesses (Whitner, Culliver) in the secondary were exposed by Atlanta and Baltimore in the post-season. They lost safety Dashon Goldson in the offseason but added veteran Nnamdi Asomugha. They will also likely receiver a healthy Justin Smith after the veteran suffered a late-season injury. That’s a bigger deal than most understand; Smith is among the most valuable defensive players in the NFL when healthy (just ask his estranged brother, Aldon).
The Niners made a few other minor deals, bringing in 31^st pick Eric Reid and former Chief Glenn Dorsey. Most importantly, they bring back Pat Willis, Navarro Bowman, the Smiths and Carlos Rogers. They did enough tinkering to remain one of the top three defenses in the NFL. But didn’t do enough to be the best in their own division.
Seattle: Last year no one allowed fewer points (245) than Seattle. However, they were sixth in weighted defense and fourth in defensive DVOA. The Seahawks lost only Alan Branch and Marcus Trufant in the offseason but have plenty of growth to look forward to.
Last year’s defensive line feature the fearsome pass-rushing duo of rookie Bruce Irvin and Chris Clemons. Clemons is one of the league’s best at his position but is recovering from a torn ACL. Irvin had a solid rookie year but has some improvements to make as an every-down player. They also added veterans Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett to what was already a formidable unit. And it will only get better as Clemons’ health improves.
The strength of the defense is their big, physical cornerback duo of Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. Both are at least 6’3 and both were Pro-Bowlers last season. In today’s pass-heavy league, they are rare shut-down corners. They’re incredibly valuable the any defense.
Some, including Football Outsiders, have raised questions about the team’s depth at linebacker. But their ability to rush the passer and shut down nearly every team’s vertical passing game is unparalleled. And the chance for improvement makes them the best defense in the NFC West; the best of the best.
Stay hungry, my friends