NBA Midseason Review

The NBA season is basically midway through I’ll give my MVP Ballot and All NBA 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd teams

MVP

1.       Lebron James

This is going to be an interesting MVP race right up until the end of the season; it’s going to be very close between two elite players.  However this season even though he probably won’t end up winning the award, Lebron James has been the slightly better player.  Why because Lebron James has somehow found even more ways to improve his game.  Lebron’s PER is 30.2 right now, an insanely high number that would rank 17^th all-time for a single season.  He has an incredible shooting line of .550/.400/.734, becoming a more efficient creation than he already was.  He has increased his rebounding and passing averaging 8.1 rebounds and 7 assists per game.  His defense while probably not as great as last season is still elite as he adjusts to playing power forward most of the time, instead of his natural position of small forward.  It’s getting closer but this man is still the best player in basketball and thus far has been MVP.

2.       Kevin Durant

Considering how good Lebron is it is amazing that there is even a legitimate debate going on about who is MVP.  However Kevin Durant has played so well that it is a discussion worth having.  Durant is the best pure scorer in all of basketball, as he leads the league in scoring averaging 29.5 PPG, while having an absolutely ridiculous shooting line of .519/.417/.910.  He has increased his assists, and steals while decreasing his turnovers while generally playing better defense.  He has played power forward more this season, putting him in harder defensive matchups which he has worked hard to improve at.  If he ends up winning MVP this year it really won’t even be that much of an outrage considering how well he has played.  He currently has a PER of 29.3, remarkably close to Lebron and in most seasons MVP worthy. 

3.       Chris Paul

Chris Paul is very good at basketball.  That statement doesn’t do Chris Paul any justice but hey it’s a good place to start.  Really the NBA MVP contenders are put in 3 categories.  The contenders( Lebron and Durant), Chris Paul, and trying to get on the ballot.  Chris Paul is squarely 3^rd on the ballot because he definitely hasn’t been as good as Lebron or Durant this season but clearly nobody besides those two have been better.  He has a PER of 26.1, 3^rd in the league, scores at a very efficient rate, is the best table setter in the league and is probably the best defensive point guard.  He isn’t able to put up the gaudy stats that the top 2 candidates have but man is this guy good.

4.       Tim Duncan

I know what you are thinking, there is no way Duncan is actually on this guy’s MVP ballot, and if he is he is only on there because he is his favorite player.  Well I’m here to tell you something that is not true.  Tim Duncan is a legit MVP candidate this season and has been an absolutely dominate force this year.  He has a PER of 24.5 good for 6^th in the league, and his highest mark since his last championship season in 2007.  In increased minutes played he has increased his scoring, field goal %, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks and free throw percentage.  This is all while being arguably the best defensive big man in the NBA, ranking 3^rd in blocks, 5^th in defensive rebound percentage and the highest defensive rating in the NBA.  He is an elite post defender and an elite rim protector, while also being an offensive force.  If he played more minutes he would have a legitimate against Lebron and Durant in the MVP argument as no player arguably impacts his team on a per minute basis more. 

5.       Tyson Chandler

Tyson Chandler is the definition of efficiency offensively.  This season he has taken 263 shots, and has made 177 of them, 67.3%.  He in an improved free throw shooter who now makes 68.1% of them, while taking 4.7 per game.  He is a great rebounder who averages over almost 11 a game and averages almost 2 blocked shots.  The man is a great defensive center who currently has the Knicks ranked 15^th in the league which is pretty incredible considering he is the only above average defensive player who has played most of the season.  He has by far the best offensive rating of any player in basketball and just helps the team tremendously whenever he is on the court.  The man is a true MVP candidate and deserves consideration.

Most Surprising Team Golden State Warriors

There are a lot of potential candidates for the NBA’s surprise team this season.  The Knicks are one of the best teams in the East, the Clippers have the look of a title contender, but to me the most surprising team has been the Golden State Warriors.  Mark Jackson has to be the favorite for Coach of the Year at this point as he currently has the Warriors 5^th in the West with a record of 26-16.  They not surprisingly can score considering they are led by Steph Curry and David Lee, they rank 12^th in the NBA.  The surpise however is that this team has been above average defensively this season without the presence of Andrew Bogut.  The Warriors have a bunch of players who throughout their career have been below average defensively and yet are putting together the 12^th best defense in the NBA.  Jackson has the Warriors playing hard and smart defensively as this team hopes to be dangerous come playoff time.

Most Disappointing Team Los Angeles Lakers

Could it be any other team?  Really only the Celtics have been anywhere close to as big a disappointment as the Lakers but they had lower expectations, a better record, and as of now are a playoff team.  The Lakers this season have just been abysmal.  Kobe Bryant is the only Laker playing above expectations and he has since cooled down after his unbelievable start.  D’Antoni is proving to be a horrible fit as coach who has no idea how to utilize his talent.  Pau Gasol has disappeared playing 20 feet from the rim, and for some reason Earl Clark is playing ahead of him.  Dwight Howard while still putting up great numbers hasn’t been his normal self on defense and it is really costing the team.  Overall this Lakers team is a dysfunctional mess without an obvious direction to go, it has a strange mix of talent and a coach whose system doesn’t play to their strengths.  This 2^nd half of the year might not turn out to be much better.

Most Surprising Player Andre Drummond

I am pleasantly shocked by how good Drummond has been this season.  This is a player who was looked at as a major risk come draft time, a player with tremendous upside potential, but lacked any refined offensive skills or a motor.  Personally I was expected Hasheem Thabeet 2.0.  What he has been though is a player who has shown flashes of dominance and been consistently productive, if raw.  He averages 7.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG and .9 SPG in only 20.1 MPG.  He is shooting 60.9% percent from the field and has a PER of 22.9 which is good for 11^th in the entire NBA.  I wasn’t a believer in Drummond before the year began but man has he been good this season and if he is able to improve his game from here on out he definitely has star potential. 

Most Disappointing Player Josh Smith

After a breakthrough season last year I was expecting Josh Smith to be the leader of an overachieving Hawks team.  He has all the potential in the world and seemed to be truly realizing it last season.  This season however he has regressed.  He continues to take those dreaded jump shots that he is so horrible at; he is shooting 27.6% on them for the season. His rebounding is down, as are his free throw attempts and % on the season.  His PER of 17.3 is 3.8 points lower than that of last season.  For a player that had the potential to really elevate his game this season and be a true game changer he has been a major disappointment.   

Best Team Oklahoma City

I want to name to say it’s the Spurs but as much as it pains me I can’t.  So far this season the Thunder have just been the best team in basketball, better than the Spurs, Clippers or Heat. They have the best record in the NBA, the best expected record, and are first in John Hollinger’s Power Rankings.  They have the best offense in basketball, and the 8^th best defense in basketball.  This team has looked dominant many times throughout the season and looks like the team to beat in the West.  The Spurs are right behind them, but OKC’s star power definitely gives them an advantage come playoff time.  It’s going to be a great finish to the season but halfway through OKC has been the team to beat.

Worst Team Charlotte Bobcats

Well this team is better than last year’s.  The Bobcats have changed from worst team in basketball history to well worst team in basketball.  This team has the worst record in the league, the worst expected record, and is the worst in John Hollinger’s Power Rankings.  They have the 26^th ranked offense and the 29^th ranked defense, again improvements over last year but not by much.  This team has been far from great this season but the improved play of Kemba Walker and the emergence of rookie Michael Kidd-Gilchrist give the team some hope for the future. 

Stay Hungry My Friends

A Look Back at Our Preseason NFL Predictions

Here at the Hungry Dog Blog we like to keep ourselves honest and claim responsibility for what we say/tweet/write/predict. This August, I made 10 Big Predictions for the 2012 NFL season. Now, we’ll revisit those picks and see where I was right and where things went wrong.

1.       A two or three seed will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl: The prediction was made because the NFC has been on a ridiculously long (nine years) string of being represented by powerhouse one seeds or surprise four-six seeds in the Super Bowl. Miraculously, San Francisco was able to overcome the mid-seed curse and advance the big game behind the dynamic play of Colin Kaepernick. Thanks a ton, guys.

2.       Tom Brady will lose his 40^th career game: There are a lot of names you can call Tom Brady; loser is not one of them. Coming into the season, Brady had only lost 35 games in 10 seasons as a starter. I thought regression, luck, age or something would catch up to Brady and the Pats this year. I was wrong. Despite some strange early-season luck, Brady led the Patriots to a 12-4 finish before their inevitable yearly playoff bust. The world’s most famous Male Uggz model now sits at 39 career losses at the age of 35. OK.

3.       The New York Giants will miss the playoffs: Well what do you know about that? It turns out teams that struggle to get to 9-7 and undergo very minor personnel changes don’t usually fare too well. The Giants finished with the same record as 2011 but this time had to deal with the Washington RG III’s. The defense was average, the pass rush was inconsistent and the offense took entire games off. Ya know…the same things they did last year before January.

4.       There will be a surprise division winner…and it will be the Chicago Bears: Well, this prediction looked pretty solid for the first 10 weeks of the season. The Bears started 7-1 and were playing defense at a historically good levels. Then, Cutler got hurt and missed a few games and the offense became totally stagnant. Not only has the passing game been totally ineffective since Cutler’s return, the Bears are also having trouble running the ball. The hardest part of the schedule hit at the worst time imaginable. Da Bears were easily handled by Houston before being dominated by an obviously superior 49er team. The Bears are who I thought they were…but they peaked too early. Throw in an offensive line that’s worse than anyone imagined and this Bears team was prime for this type of historic collapse.

5.       You will learn to re-respect Josh Freeman by midseason: Clever job by mid-August Taylor with the wording here. By midseason, Josh Freeman had re-earned the respect of the football populous. He had the Bucs in position to grab a wild-card spot and even threw 25 touchdowns to only eight interceptions. Then, in weeks 15 and 16, Freeman threw one touchdown and eight interceptions as the Bucs were blown out twice to ensure they’d miss the playoffs again. The fourth-year quarterback finished the season with the lowest completion percentage of his career

6.       By season’s end, Larry Fitzgerald will have the third-most yards for active receivers at the age of 29: A lot of things had to go well for this prediction to come true and I suppose the quarterback trio of Kevin Kolb, Jon Skelton and Ryan Lindley didn’t help it too much. No one is stuck in receiver hell more than Fitzgerald right now but the prediction didn’t go as badly as the numbers might indicate. If Moss retires this offseason, Fitz will be fifth in receiving yards among active players. The only other factors I didn’t count on when making this prediction were Tony Gonzalez being an unaging, inhuman cyborg and Andre Johnson returning to form while Fitz toiled in the Arizona sun. Let’s hope Mr. Fitzgerald gets someone decent to throw him the ball in 2013.

7.       One big-time acquisition won’t pan out and it will be Brandon Lloyd: I wouldn’t go so far as to say Lloyd didn’t work out but he certainly wasn’t the threat he was expected to be. After accumulating over 1400 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010, Lloyd was held to 74 catches 911 yards and four touchdowns. Most importantly, he was unable to make a difference in the Pats’ playoffs loss to the Ravens (the main reason he was brought in). Lloyd was a better outside target than Ochocinco but did not live up to expectation.

8.       The Houston Texans will have their best season in franchise history: Well, the Texans broke a franchise record with 12 wins and advanced to the second round of the playoffs for the second year in a row. Yet, I suspect many Houston fans have a sour taste in their mouths after a less-than-impressive finish to the season. Either way, the season appears to be their best on paper.

9.       The Bengals will start off hot only to miss the playoffs: This prediction appears wrong at first glance but that’s only because I didn’t fully type it out in the original version. The full prediction should have read: The Bengals will start off hot only to miss the playoffs unless the rest of the AFC craps their pants and totally refuses to make the playoffs. So, thank you Jets, Bills, Chargers, Steelers and Dolphins.

10.   A quarterback not named Manning, Brady or Roethlisberger will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl: For the first time in 10 years, the AFC will be represented by a quarterback without one of the above names in the Super Bowl. Joe Flacco picked up Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger’s slack these past few weeks and legitimately played as well as anyone has in the playoffs. Like the two/three seed situation in the NFC, it was only a matter of time until the streak ended.

The Verdict: I did much better than I expected this year; I didn’t really botch any of them. Four of the predictions completely came true while four others came damn close and the other two are up for debate.

Stay Hungry My Friends

The Times They Are a-Changin': Optimism in Buffalo Sports

                The Buffalo Sabres season starts again today and I feel optimism not just about the team but about the Buffalo sports scene as a whole.  The Sabres and Bills are both heading in new directions as a franchise and I think on a whole these new directions are good.  Terry Pegula is the owner of the Sabres, and Russ Brandon is the President of the Bills, excitement should be in the air.

                The Sabres haven’t made as many whole sale changes in this lockout truncated season, and Pegula has now been owner for over a year, but still the franchise is still in a better place than it was when he took over.   They have an owner who said “the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup."  This is not penny pinching Tom Golisano who ran the team like a business and demanded profit.  Look I know since he has taken over, he has kept both Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff but that doesn’t mean the franchise is in the same situation.  They struck out with Ville Leino and overpaid Christian Ehrhoff, but almost every team that gets a huge amount of money to spend will do so right away.  The moves, while not well thought out or long-term savvy still show a commitment to winning and a willingness to spend money.  I believe in this team this season, it had a good offseason that saw the team get tougher and it landed potential star Mikhail Grigorenko in the draft.  If these moves work out the decision to keep Darcy won’t seem as much as continuity, but giving somebody a new opportunity. 

                The Bills have also made some dramatic changes this offseason to and these ones I couldn’t be more excited about.  The team made Russ Brandon President, removing Ralph Wilson from the position and placing Brandon in charge of the team.  To me at first this move seemed like more of the same and that there weren’t any major changes happening with the franchise, yes Chan Gailey was fired but Buddy Nix remained.  However moves since then have transpired to alter my thought process.  The Bills are starting an analytics department, a department that uses things like advanced stats to aid the Bills decision making and help the team going forward.  This is a forward thinking decision that is moving the Bills into the cutting edge of something, not a place Bills’ fans are used to seeing them.  As someone who sees a lot of value in these analytics I couldn’t be more excited about the directions this could take the franchise.  Then the announcement that everyone has opinions on, naming Doug Marrone as head coach of the team.  A dramatic change from the Dick Jauron and Chan Gailey era’s that we had come to know.  A young up and coming coach without that much experience was going to coach the team.   I loved the move for a few reasons, he turned around a team in the past, Syracuse fans are disappointed to see him go, and other teams wanted him.  That actually might be the most exciting point for Buffalo sports fans, other teams wanted him to go their but he made the choice to go to Buffalo.  Look nobody knows if he is going to be a success or failure, in my view he seems to have the traits of a successful coach and is a risk well worth taking for this franchise.

                I know optimism and Buffalo sports shouldn’t go together.  All of us have been burned countless times believing in teams that didn’t return our belief.  However I do believe the future for both of our franchises are bright because we have the most important characteristic, good leadership from the top.  Over the long-term that is what wins and I think that is going to drive both these  teams going forward, and isn’t it more fun to think that anyway?

Stay Hungry My Friends

The Lackluster AFC and the Super Bowl Picks

            A league that once prided itself on parity is now sorely lacking in it. Three of the four teams from last year’s conference championship games will be back again this year while Atlanta is no surprise in joining them. A lack of parity wouldn’t be such a problem if we were dealing with juggernauts going head to head but that’s just not the case. The Ravens were just plain bad for the second half of the regular season and they’ve capitalized on a playing teams that either didn’t belong in the playoffs (Colts) or were playing their worst game of the season (Peyton Manning angrily shakes his fist). They’re just about the most boring/least compelling team (aside from the Lewis fiasco) of the twelve that qualified for the playoffs.

 On the other side, the Patriots will be playing in the AFC Championship for what feels like the 13^th year in a row. It’s not that the Patriots aren’t compelling or aren’t complete it’s just they haven’t faced a challenge in the AFC in the past few years. Don’t believe me? The quarterbacks the Pats have faced in the AFC playoffs since 2007 have been David Garrard, Phillip Rivers with a torn ACL, Joe Flacco (loss), Mark Sanchez (loss), Tim Tebow, Joe Flacco, Lobotomized Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco again. Wow, that’s some light competition in a quarterback-driven league.

The truth of the matter is, the football in the AFC has been a tarnished product for the past couple years and could be even more so in the next couple.

 Two years ago the Steelers started getting old and the Colts (who weren’t at all complete to begin with) lost Peyton Manning and no one has stepped up to rival the Patriots since. The Jets had a cute two-year run (even knocked the Pats out of the playoffs) but they’ve fallen off; the Ravens give the Pats a run and seem to be in the thick of things every year but they always fall short. They’ve just never seemed like a Super Bowl team. Yet, they’ve been the second most successful team of the past five years.

In each of the last two years, the Bengals have made the playoffs and have been promptly embarrassed each time. They’ve now made the playoffs three of the last four years almost exclusively by beating every bad team on their schedule. Their best wins of the two-year stretch were over Baltimore and Washington (only wins over playoff teams) but the Washington game was only the fourth game of RG III’s career and the Ravens had already clinched the division and were starting Tyrod Taylor. The Bengals could improve and become a quality foe and a playoff contender; but they’ve had no business in the playoffs the past two years.

The Texans have had 10+ wins and a playoff victory in each of the last two seasons but have failed to reach the AFC Championship both times. Perhaps they’re just young and inexperienced or perhaps they aren’t as good as we initially thought. Matt Schaub doesn’t look the part of a Super Bowl contender and it’s hard to say he’s still improving at age 31. Foster may have already been run into the ground and the o-line and defense weren’t as stout as they were last year. It’s hard to see the Texans contending for the Super Bowl within the next two years.

The Broncos have now won two-consecutive division titles, albeit under entirely different circumstances. Last year they were able to defeat a helplessly-injured Steelers team (that’ll happen when you’re that old) before getting demolished by the Pats. But this year was supposed to be different. Peyton Manning wasn’t the only thing added to the picture; the defense became one of the top units in the league. But, in true AFC fashion, the team folded against a totally average Ravens team.

So the Pats will likely march on to the Super Bowl woefully untested yet again (last year the AFC Championship was their first win against a team with a winning record). And maybe they’ll win this time. The AFC sure could use a Super Bowl victory; the NFC has won three straight and looks to have a stranglehold on the future. The Pats (or by some miracle, the Ravens) need to win this Super Bowl just to avoid a 1980’s-esche streak in favor of the NFC (when the NFC won 13 consecutive Super Bowls, 11 by double digits). The future of the AFC is beginning to look bleak. The Ravens and Texans may still compete but don’t seem to be Super Bowl contenders. The Bengals still have a lot of improving to do if they hope to make the playoffs. The Colts will likely regress next year (they were the worst 11-win team of all time according to Football Outsiders) while their future as a Super Bowl contender remains to be seen. The Pats look as strong as ever but Brady is creeping further away from 30 and inching towards the dreaded number 40. The same goes for Peyton Manning and the Broncos while a quick survey of the rest of the AFC turns up little hope for the immediate future. The Jaguars and Chargers are starting over, the Steelers and Titans look to be a year away from realizing they have to start over, the Raiders and Chiefs are a total mess and the Jets and Bills have talent but are lacking key components. That leaves the Miami Dolphins as the AFC’s current best hope for the future. Look out America, here comes Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hartline!

The NFC on the other hand…

Despite seemingly being contenders forever, the Falcons are led by fifth-year quarterback Matt Ryan. The 49ers have a young and oober-talented Coach/QB combo in Kaepernick and Harbaugh and they could be headed for an early Lombardi trophy to kick off their partnership. The Seahawks are as talented and complete as any team in the league and nearly made the NFC Championship with a rookie quarterback. Meanwhile, does anyone think the Giants are done? Or that we won’t hear from RG III again? The Saints had an off year because of Payton’s suspension but Brees and Co. will be back in full force next The Bears and Vikings still have enough talent to make a run while the Lions should not be forgotten about. Even the Rams gave teams trouble this year and vastly improved from last year.

Things can change in an instant in the NFL as we’ve been shown so many times before. The AFC better hope this hold true as they are not nearly as set up for the future as the NFC.

The Picks:

Patriots vs. Ravens: No matter how much ESPN tries to jam it down our throats this week, the storyline should not be; Patriots offense vs. Ravens Defense. The Ravens defense is totally average, they’re not the unit they have been in the past. The Pats are without Gronk but Brady, Welker, Lloyd and Co. should be enough to out-score the Flacco-led Ravens. Pats 35 Ravens 20

Atlanta vs. San Francisco: Kaepernick’s performance against the Packers is worth mentioning here as the greatest playoff performance ever by a first-year quarterback. But people will likely forget about that if he isn’t able to lift the Niners over Atlanta this week. Alex Smith was benched after leading the team to the NFC Championship last year. Harbaugh and Co. didn’t want another championship game loss. They want to go all the way and that’s why they started Kaepernick. Harbaugh’s decision will be vindicated when he leads the team to  their first Super Bowl appearance in 18 years. San Francisco 31 Atlanta 28

Stay Hungry, My Friends

Divisional Round Preivew

And then there were eight.

  The divisional round of the playoffs is upon us and we’ll be treated to some classic storylines. Arguably the best offensive and defensive players of this generation will face off one last time as the Colts will take on the Ravens. The Texans will look to avenge a 42-14 shellacking on Monday Night Football when they take on the Patriots this weekend. The upstart Seahawks and rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will be surprising no one this weekend if they’re able to beat top-seed Atlanta on the road. Then, in a rematch of week one this season and countless playoff games in the nineties, the Packers will take on the 49ers.  
 The divisional round is good for at least one upset every year; usually one no one sees coming. Sometime this weekend, we’ll see a clear picture of what the Super Bowl matchup could look like. So who will advance to the conference championship round?

San Francisco vs. Green Bay (+3)

Why San Fran should win: The 49ers had seemingly no trouble in slowing down Aaron Rodgers and Co. week one and ran the ball with relative ease. They’re still able to do everything they did in that game if they’re able to get a lead early. The only thing that’s changed is, with Kaepernick behind center, they’re much more able to jump out to an early lead. The Nevada product also gives the Niners a better ability to keep up with the Packers if it becomes a shoot-out. While Kaepernick may not be as dangerous as Rodgers, he’s showed against the Patriots that he has the ability to go throw for throw with top-tier quarterbacks. In addition, the Niners will likely get Justin Smith back from injury. While Smith may not be totally healthy, he should be a welcome addition to a defense that obviously needs him to remain elite.

Why Green Bay should win: In Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have the best quarterback in the world right now. Despite throwing the ball more often than nearly everyone in the league and playing behind a putrid line, Rodgers managed to be one of the best at avoiding turnovers yet again. His regular season numbers speak for themselves (39 TD 8 INT 4295 yards 67.2 %), Rodgers is truly a remarkable passer. Meanwhile, Randall Cobb has emerged as a threat in the passing game to go along with the now healthy receiving corps of James Jones, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley. In other good news, last week the Pack did two things they’ve struggled for two years to do; they ran the ball well and they stopped the run. Neither of these are small tasks against the Vikings. If the O-line is able to hold up against Justin Smith and Co. and they’re able to get to Kaepernick, the Packers should be able handle the Niners.

The Pick: The Niners defense has been a shell of itself since Justin Smith went down with that injury and if there’s any sort of weakness in the defense, Rodgers will tear them apart. In the end, a semi-healthy Green bay offense is to be trusted over a semi-healthy San Fran defense.

Seattle vs. Atlanta (-2.5)

Why Seattle should win: The Seahawks will be without star pass rusher Chris Clemons when they take the field Sunday. However they will still have the three best defensive players between the teams in Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner and Bruce Irvin. Russell Wilson is on a six-week stretch of playing as well or better than any rookie has ever played and Marshawn Lynch is riding a career year at RB. The Seahawks have the ability to take away Atlanta’s greatest strength as they can neutralize Julio Jones and Roddy White with fantastic coverage and a dangerous pass rush.  It seems like Seattle has every conceivable matchup advantage and, for what it’s worth, they have “momentum/Mojo” going into the matchup.

Why Atlanta should win: The Falcons may not have been impressive in beating many of their opponents this year but, they did gain a lot of experience in playing in close games. They rarely lost all season and they have a QB with a knack for late-game heroics. When it’s all said and done, the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. Matt Ryan is still an advantage over Russell Wilson at this point.

The Pick: I’m not going to go into any “Falcons or Matt Ryan can’t win in the playoffs” narrative. They’ll just have the unfortunate luck of drawing the future NFC champion for the fourth consecutive time. Seahawks 31 Falcons 17

Denver vs. Baltimore (+9.5)-

Why Denver will win: After a slow start, the Broncos have been an absolute wrecking crew over the past 11 weeks. They’ve been incredible in all three phases of the game and improved vastly as the season has gone on. Peyton Manning is as good as he’s ever been in leading what was an awful Bronco offense in 2011, to the second best season of any offense in the league in 2012. The run game hasn’t been particularly dangerous but that hardly matters when you have a quarterback who throws for 37 touchdowns and completes nearly 67% of his passes. The defense, especially the pass rush, has gotten much better as the season has gone on and is now among the best units in the league. They gave Joe Flacco fits in a commanding win over the Ravens a month ago. That game, which was 31-3 when John Fox called the dogs off, showed exactly why the Broncos should steam roll the Ravens. Baltimore has no way of stopping Manning and the Broncos can easily pressure and stop the Ravens.

Why Baltimore should win: I have almost nothing for this. They’re only chance is if the o-line has a big day opening up holes for Ray Rice and keeping Flacco upright enough for the Ravens to control the clock. Although they have Ray Lewis again, they’re only chance of stopping Manning is for him to stop himself. This is something we rarely see out of the four-time MVP. The Ravens best hope is for Lewis’s impending retirement to have some sort of inspirational effect on the entire team.

The Pick: The Ravens have an average offense and contrary to popular belief…an average defense. They just won’t be able to handle the elite units of the Broncos. Denver 34 Baltimore 17

New England over Houston(9.5)-

Why New England should win: Tom Brady has the chance to break Joe Montana’s record for most career playoff wins here. This didn’t happen by accident, the Patriots show up in January. The pats have, by far, the league’s best offense with a solid enough defense to compliment it. Brady is playing at his usual hall of fame level while Welker and Hernandez have been as solid as always. Gronkowski is finally healthy and Steven Ridley is the best back the Pats have had since Corey Dillon. There’s no reason anything should be different from the 42-12 beating they gave Houston a few weeks ago.

Why the Houston should win: Brady and the Pats have made mincemeat of teams who weren’t up to playoff level over the years (11 Denver, 07 Jags, 06 Jets, 05 Jags) but they’ve struggled against slightly above average teams with good defenses in recent years (11 Ravens, 10 Jets, 09 Ravens, 07 Giants). Houston played well below their capable level the last four weeks of the season, starting with the Monday night loss to the Pats. But, the defense rebounded with an impressive effort against Andy Dalton last week. If Foster is as dangerous as he was last week and the defense is as stifling, the Texans have at least a fighting chance against the Patriots.

The Pick: There’s no reason the Patriots shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball against the rejuvenated Texans D, especially if Gronk is fully healthy. Houston’s only chance is for Matt Schaub to finally turn things around go punch for punch with Brady. Don’t count on it. Patriots 35 Texans 20

Baseball Hall of Fame: The Real Ballot

Surprise surprise, the year where Mike Trout was robbed of MVP, the BBWAA totally missed the boat on the Hall of Fame induction.  In a season where if I had a vote I would have voted for the maximum 10 players possible, somehow no players were inducted.  Not arguably the two greatest players most people have seen, Bonds and Clemens, gritty guys, Biggio, or sabermetric darling, Tim Raines.  A bunch of deserving players were left out of the Hall of Fame, and if I had a vote here would be the 10 I would choose:

Here are a couple of main statistics I used in the piece (all courtesy of Baseball Reference)

WAR- Wins Above Replacement Player, basically how many more wins a player is worth than an average triple A replacement player

WAR7- The 7 best seasons of a player’s career in regard to WAR, not necessarily in order

OPS+  OPS that adjusts for what park and what league the player played in, is on a 100 point scale, 105 means they are 5% better than league average, 95 means 5% worse than league average

ERA+ Like OPS+, it is ERA adjusted for park affects and the strength of the league, also on a 100 point scale

Jeff Bagwell

Currently there are 18 first basemen in the Hall of Fame; right now Jeff Bagwell has the 7^th highest career WAR of any first basemen ever.  He also has the 5^th highest 7 best seasons WAR of all time, which would constitute excellence, and not just longevity.  He was the best slugging 1^st basemen in the steroid era, that offensive swoon.  His career BA/OBP/SLG line is .297/.408/.540, which happens to be quite excellent.  In the strike shortened 1994 season he earned a well-deserved MVP, so really the strength of any Bagwell argument rests on the idea he might have used performance enhancing drugs.  The evidence he did this, he was huge and could work out a lot.  There have been no whispers and no positive tests, but is being kept out of the Hall of Fame because of accusations other players have faced, disgraceful.

Craig Biggio

Honestly, I’m quite confused as to why Craig Biggio didn’t make the Hall of Fame.  He has never been connected to steroid use, and for what it’s worth doesn’t seem to look like a user.  He has over 3000 hits, something that almost guarantees 1^st year induction.  He was seen as a tough gritty player, who played multiple positions and seemed to be high on intangibles.  All of those things cloud the fact that he is a player greatly deserving of induction.  He had a batting line of .281/.363/.433, a great line considering he played catcher and second base for most of his career, and those numbers were depressed by a few late career seasons going after 3000 hits.  Of the current 19 2^nd basemen in the Hall of Fame, only 9 rank ahead of him in career WAR, and 11 rank ahead of him in WAR7.  He is clearly a Hall of Famer who only didn’t make it because of some writers’ idea that he isn’t a “1^st ballot Hall of Famer” which is just stupid; if you are a Hall of Famer then you are a Hall of Famer it doesn’t matter when you get in.

Barry Bonds

It’s pretty comical that Barry Bonds isn’t a Hall of Famer.  As I detailed in my previous piece he is one of the greatest players in the history of baseball.  He has the highest career WAR by a considerable margin of any Left Fielder, o and 2^nd place is Ted Williams, who Bonds is considerably higher than.  Let’s go over the argument quickly he was the best player in baseball during the 90s then starting in 2001 put together arguably the best 4 year run of any player in the history of baseball.  Ok now let’s get to why he isn’t in the Hall of Fame, his almost definite steroid use.  Question why do people feel the need to get on their high horse and decide what is cheating.  As multiple baseball writers have pointed out, many hall of famers including Hank Aaron used amphetamines which at the time weren't against league rules but are now considered so.  This is very much like steroids and really in my mind if you say Bonds doesn’t deserve to get in then you are saying that Hank Aaron doesn’t as well.

Roger Clemens

You know everything I just wrote about Barry Bonds; well now imagine that for a pitcher.  A quick rundown, there are currently 58 starting pitchers in the MLB Hall of Fame, Roger Clemens is higher than all of two of them in WAR.  Those two pitchers happen to be Walter Johnson and Cy Young pitchers who played between 1890 and 1927.  He is a legend and a freak that totally dominated baseball for 24 years, and totally dominated the sport in both longevity and dominance.  He is 9^th all-time in wins, 7^th in ERA+, and 3^rd all-time in strikeouts.  The only argument he doesn't deserve to get in is the same as the Bonds argument from above, so I won’t rehash it, and he clearly deserves to get in. 

Edgar Martinez

If you are ever going to let a DH into the Hall of Fame, then this is the guy.  He currently has a career WAR of 64.4, only 6 first basemen in the Hall of Fame have a higher career WAR than that.  He had a batting line of .312/.418/.515, and a career OPS+ of 147, only 4 Hall of Fame first basemen are higher.  Clearly if he was a first basemen he would deserve to get in but what about as a DH?  I think first base is the best point of comparison first of all because it is by far the least important position defensively and usually the team’s worst fielder plays there anyway.  Martinez thus wasn't hurting his team with his defense like some Hall of Famers do.  He has clearly merited induction, especially with no steroid suspicions surrounding him, but it seems like he won’t be inducted because he was a DH, a poor reason considering WAR makes positional adjustments. 

Mark McGwire

As a baseball player, Mark McGwire had two skills, hitting for power and getting on base, he was exceptional at both of those skills but not very good at anything else, is that deserving of induction, I say yes.  To me here is the best argument, only 3 current Hall of Famers have an OPS+ higher than that of McGwire, his is 163, making him 63 % better than the average major leaguer.  This is a player with 583 Homeruns, and an OBP of .394 he was one of the best players in the game of baseball despite having only those 2 obvious skills.  However considering those are probably the two most important skills a major leaguer can have, and he was one of the best in the history of his position at them, and one of the best in baseball during his time he deserves enshrinement.  Also the same argument with regards to steroids that applies to Clemens and Bonds apply to McGwire. 

Michael Piazza

I honestly don’t understand the argument that Mike Piazza isn’t a Hall of Famer.  This guy is probably the greatest hitting catcher of all time.  He is the all-time leader in homeruns, SLG, OPS and OPS+ among qualifying catchers.  He is 5^th all-time in WAR and 3^rd all-time in WAR7.  Really the only weakness his game had was that he was a subpar defense player.  In all reality he wasn’t as bad as his reputation and his offense way more than made up for any difficulties defensively.  Also he is a player without any steroid accusations.  While he was strong and muscular the only “argument” I have heard that he has taken steroids is that he has “bacne”.  Also if he did use, and there is no evidence he did, then again it shouldn’t stop the greatest hitting catcher of all time from being a Hall of Famer. 

Tim Raines

I’m pretty sure the only reason Tim Raines isn’t a Hall of Famer is because the BBWAA has a personal vendetta against my favorite baseball writer Jonah Keri, considering Raines is his favorite player and most ardent Hall of Fame supporter.  Really that’s the only logical reason to keep Tim Raines out of the Hall of Fame.  Why else would they keep out a baseball player who played a position where 19 players reached the Hall of Fame and ranks above all but 4 of them in WAR and all but 7 in WAR7.  He reached base 3977 times, more than Tony Gwynn, ranks 5^th all-time in steals with 808 steals which he stole at a 84.7% success rate, good for 11^th all-time.  He has a career batting line of .294/.385/.425 which compares favorably to Rickey Henderson’s .279/.401/.419.  Really he probably isn’t in already because he fell short of 3000 hits, but honestly he got walked so much the point is irrelevant.  Also if anyone is keeping him out because he did cocaine, Ty Cobb is in the Hall of Fame.   He was a very good hitter and an all-time great base stealer who clearly deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, and his exclusion makes Jonah Keri sad, something I can’t see any reasonable human being wanting. 

Curt Schilling

His exclusion from the Hall of Fame is another one that baffles the mind.  There are 58 starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame; only 18 have a higher career WAR than him.  This is a pitcher who had dominate seasons in Philadelphia, Arizona and Boston.  He 6 times finished with an ERA+ higher than 140 making him 40% better than all other pitchers in baseball at the time.  He won 216 games for those that consider something like that important, which while not the highest total ever is still quite impressive.  Also he was one of the greatest post season pitchers of our lifetime adding even more so to the resume.  In 19 post season starts he had an ERA of 2.23 threw 130 innings, struck out 120 batters, walked only 25 and finished with a record of 11-2.  This is a man who regular season accolades alone warrant Hall of Fame induction, but adding postseason play to the table brings it to another label.  Also the obligatory no steroid suspicions and even if he did so it wouldn’t matter.

Alan Trammel

The basic crux of voting Alan Trammel into the Hall of Fame is that he was an above average hitter throughout his career at the 2^nd toughest defensive position, while playing amazing defense there.  His value at shortstop is incredibly important to the value of the team, and he provided offensively considerably helping his case even more so.  Only 7 of the 21 shortstops in the Hall of Fame rank above him in WAR while only 6 rank above him in WAR7.  He had a solid .285/.352/.415 batting line, which was deflated by a weak last few seasons, and provided solid value offensively.  The main part of his argument was defense, and often overlooked aspect that got Ozzie Smith elected and should hopefully get Trammel in. 

Now here is one player who is quite close to being inducted but under no circumstances deserves to get in:

Jack Morris

Yes that’s right 254 game winner and 3 time World Series Champion Jack Morris doesn’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.  He was a slightly above average pitcher who pitched a lot of innings for a lot of very good teams and thus won a lot of games.  He had a career WAR of 39.3, the average starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame has a WAR of 68.1, the likes of Jamie Moyer, Brad Radke and countless others are higher.  His WAR7 is 30.8, far below the average Hall of Famer starters 47.7.  He had a career ERA+ of 105, making him just 5% better than the average starting pitcher.  He had a career ERA of 3.90 which would be the highest of any pitcher to ever make the Hall of Fame.  The arguments in his favor can be easily dispatched.  He pitched to the score, a laughable argument that has easily been disproved.  He was an ace and the best pitcher in baseball for a while and everyone knew it, yet he never finished higher than 3^rd in Cy Young balloting.  He was a dominant post season pitcher.  Yet despite won awesome game 7, his career post season ERA was just 3.80, not much different from his career norms.  The man threw a ton of innings for a ton of very good teams but no way does that make him worthy of the Hall of Fame.

Satire, Sarcasm and a Disgraceful Day for America's Pastime

              I suppose I wasn’t alone in being shocked and disgusted upon learning no living members of Planet Earth would be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2013. That was, until I remembered that the Baseball Writers Association of America is not only the moral authority of the world but also the gatekeeper of a shrine of famous and morally impeccable baseball players.

After all what business do non-famous losers like Craig Biggio and possibly, could-be, steroid users like Mike Piazza have being recognized in a hall of racist, spit-balling, amphetamine taking legends? Thank heavens some brave spirits finally stood up to the morally reprehensible ways of guys like Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds! I mean, it’s not like they won three Cy Young and MVP awards respectively before people believe they started using steroids. Of course, Hank Aaron and Mike Schmidt used amphetamines to enhance their play but they didn’t benefit from performance enhancing drugs!

One has to admire how bravely and confidently the voters kept Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza out of the Hall despite them never being linked to performance enhancers of any kind. After all, due process and the concept of being innocent until proven guilty are really outdated ideas. Sure most people suspected of taking steroids never tested positive but, come on, they had big muscles!

 I’d also like to applaud the writers on continuing to keep Tim Raines out despite a growing consensus that advanced metrics should be used to measure player ability. The writers did the right thing in remembering that thinking is for nerds and understanding more than three statistical categories is just too hard. If Tim Raines wanted to be in the Hall of Fame, he should hit more home runs, damn it! The only mistake the writers made was not admitting poor Jack Morris yet again. Sure, Morris’s career e.r.a (3.90) would the lowest of anyone ever selected to the Hall but, he had a mustache!

The Baseball Hall of Fame is now without the sports all-time hit (Pete Rose) and home run (Bonds) leaders and the modern-era wins leader (Clemens). Here’s to hoping the BBWAA keeps up the good work in the future. Many players suspected of PED use will be coming onto the ballot in the next few years; it’s important that they stay out of the hallowed grounds in Cooperstown. Remember, racists, spousal abusers, drug users and spit ballers are welcome as long as they’re not steroid users or guys no one cares about like Raines and Biggio. You are in charge of the (so not totally arbitrary) task of deciding whose integrity is worth of enshrinement. Don’t screw it up. So, even though there could be multiple years where no one is enshrined and even as baseball falls further behind football and basketball in popularity, make sure you use every insanely ignorant and arbitrarily decided reason to make sure no one gets into the Hall. Because America’s Past Time should be in the hands of under-qualified writers given the task of deciding who’s integrity is enough to have them enshrined in a small building in Upstate New York.

Dominance: The Nick Saban Era at Alabama

              I, like many others, went into last night’s game thinking maybe the hype was worth it and we’d be treated to a good game. Perhaps, Notre Dame could even pull off the upset. That was, until the camera showed Nick Saban patrolling the sidelines minutes before the game and I remembered by I had so much confidence in Alabama in the first place. Because Nick Saban is more than a great coach; his ability to lead a program is the stuff of legend.

                Saban may very well be the most hated coach in America. This is not without good reason; Saban bullies the media and seems to never smile even when winning National Titles. But the American public must give credit where it is due; Nick Saban is responsible for the most impressive dynasty in North American sports since the late-nineties Yankees.

                Saban has now won three national titles with Alabama (and another with LSU in 2003) and only lost only seven games in five seasons. Now compare that to... oh wait, no one. No team this decade can possibly compare the Alabama. In the past two seasons they’ve lost only to a team led by the eventual Heisman winner and a team they’d later defeat (embarrass?) in the National Championship. In a “down” year in 2010, the Crimson Tide fell to three top-25 ranked SEC opponents (South Carolina, LSU and eventual national champion Auburn). But they defeated Penn St. Arkansas, Florida, Miss. St. and Michigan St.; all of whom were ranked in the top-25 at the time of defeat. In 2009 Bama tore through the SEC and destroyed Florida and Tim Tebow’s repeat hopes in the SEC championship before easily handling the McCoy-less Texas Longhorns in the National Title game. People forget the Tide also went undefeated in the 2008 regular season before being defeated by the Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators in the SEC Championship.

                The run of dominance should have landed Nick Saban as the king of College Football in the eye of the public before the regular season in 2012. But Alabama was never totally given the respect they deserved as negative storylines hung over both of their previous National Championships. In 2009 they only defeated Texas after Colt McCoy was injured during the first series and replaced by Garrett Gilbert. In 2011 talk surrounded the lack of excitement in the title game and LSU’s incompetence on offense. Saban and his team knew their legacy was at stake before this game and, perhaps, that’s why we saw the type of dominance we did last night.

                Plenty of talk surrounding the game was about Notre Dame’s shortcomings but no one has doubted whether Alabama deserves the title, they are the undisputed champions. The Tide were dominant from their first drive. They pushed around Notre Dame’s vaunted D as though they were playing Western Kentucky again and scored at will. By the time the outcome was decided, a graphic flashed across the screen informing the viewers that Alabama had scored 69 unanswered points in BCS National Championship Games. Let that fact sink in. Then, let it sink in that Alabama averaged nearly 40 points per game this season while giving up only 10 per game. Then, remember what you watched last night and remember that the man responsible for it likely isn’t going anywhere. This is the Nick Saban era; good luck everyone else.

Top 10 Single Season Running Back Performances of All Time

             Adrian Peterson fell nine yards short of breaking Eric Dickerson’s 28-year-old single season rushing record in the Vikings playoff-clinching win over the Packers last Sunday. Because of Peterson’s recovery from severe injury (torn ACL and MCL last season) and the margin by which he led the league in yards (484), some have claimed that this may be the best single-season performance ever by a running back. Is this really true or are we prisoners of the moment?

            As has been stated far too many times this week, Peterson is the seventh player to ever rush for 2000 yards. Throw in three other players who had historical rushing performances without reaching the mark and you have all the ingredients for a top-10 list!

                You’ll notice I took the running back’s impact on the passing game into account; it matters. So, here we are: the ten best single-season performances by running backs.

10. 1980 Earl Campbell 373 Car. 1934 Yds. 13Td. 5.2 YAC 11 Rec 47 Yds.

For those of you who don’t watch copious amounts of NFL Network documentaries, Earl Campbell was possibly the largest, most intimidating running backs in NFL history. He was capable of running away from a defender but he was more than happy to run through them for the most part. Campbell was the catalyst of the offense of an 11-5 playoff team but, sadly, fell short of the 2000-yard mark.

9.  2003 Jamal Lewis 387 Car. 2066 Yds. 14 TD 5.3 YAC 26 Rec. 205 Yds.

Lewis was so good in 2003 that he carried a team with Anthony Wright at quarterback to the playoffs. However, his 2066-yard resume seems less impressive when you consider he ran for 500 of those yards in two games against a putrid Browns team. Without those games against a creampuff defense, Lewis would have had just another very good season.

8. 1998 Terrell Davis 392 Car. 2008 Yds. 23 TD 5.1 YAC 25 Rec. 247 Yds.

Davis is the only member of the 2000-yard club to accomplish the feat while playing for a Super Bowl team. While he gets credit for being the focal point of one of the league’s  best offenses, he appears less important when you consider his teammates. John Elway, Shannon Sharpe and Rod Smith were more than capable of carrying the Denver offense. His 2008 yards and 23 touchdowns were impressive, but not as impressive as some of the other performances on this list.

7. 2009 Chris Johnson 358 Car. 2006 Yds. 16 TD 5.6 YAC 50 Rec. 503 Yds.

The forgotten season. Chris Johnson came on late in 2009 to carry the Titans to …an 8-8 record and no playoffs. Johnson’s effort may have gone for naught, but what an effort it was. The second-year running back set the record for all-purpose yards in a season when he ran for 2006 yards and caught 50 passes. This type of dual-threat performance would warrant a higher spot on this list if the Titan’s 0-6 start didn’t prevent him from making the playoffs. On that note…

6. 1999 Marshall Faulk 253 Car. 1381 Yds. 12 TD 5.5 YAC 87 Rec. 1048 Yds.

One of two Super Bowl winners on this list, Faulk redefined what it meant to be a dual threat. Faulk ran for an incredible 5.5 yards per carry while becoming the second player (Roger Craig) to gain 1000 yards rushing and receiving. Faulk was such a threat in the passing game that he was split out wide on a few occasions AND beat a cornerback. He did all this while leading the NFL in yard per carry. Most importantly, he was the key to the most exciting (third-best in my opinion) offense in NFL history. The “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams scored over 500 points, won 13 regular-season games and then, won the Super Bowl. None of this would have been possible without Faulk’s contribution.   

5. 1984 Eric Dickerson 379 Car. 2105 Yds. 14 TD. 5.6 YAC 21 Rec. 139 Yds.

Pretty simple here: In an era when running backs were still the focal points of most teams, Dickerson ran for more yards than anyone, before or since, has run in a season. Every time a running back has a special season, Dickerson is who they get compared too.

4. 2012 Adrian Peterson 348 Car. 2097 Yds. 13 TD 6.0 YAC 40 Rec. 217 Yds.

The season we just witnessed was incredible for a number of reasons. First off, as you’ve no doubt heard, Peterson tore both his MCL and ACL last Christmas Eve. Secondly, Peterson carried a team whose quarterback was playing horribly down the stretch to the playoffs. His late-season performances were the stuff of legend as he put a beleaguered Minnesota on his back as they fought through the toughest part of their schedule to make the playoffs at 10-6. Oh, and he ran the ball 348 times and still averaged six yards per carry. This was a truly incredible season.   

3. 1997 Barry Sanders  335 Car. 2053 Yds. 14 TD 6.1 YAC 33 Rec. 305 Yds.

Much like Peterson and Lewis, Sanders carried a below average Lions team to the playoffs in 1997. What was really incredible, however, was that Sanders was able to attain the 2000-yard mark in less than 330 carries (he finished with the numbers above, though). In addition, Sanders was the biggest threat in the passing game of any of the 2000-yard rushers. Barry would have had the record and then some if he were handed the ball as often as Dickerson was. Unfortunately, much like the career yards mark, Sanders fell just short.

2. 1973 OJ Simpson 332 Car. 2003 Yds. 12 TD 6.0 YAC 6 Rec 70 Yds.

OJ’s 2003 yards don’t seem outrageous until you remember that he only played a 14-game season. That’s right Simpson accomplished what only six other have done in 35 years of a 16-game schedule, in 14 games. Simpson was the Bills offense in 1973 as he rushed for 141 yards per game, 10 more than Dickerson’s average per game. The only two knocks against Simpson were that he wasn’t a factor in the passing game and he couldn’t lead the Bills to the playoffs.

 Neither of these are concerns for the man who had the most impressive season ever by a running back :

1.1963 Jim Brown 291 Car. 1863 Yds. 15 Td 6.4 YAC 24 Rec. 268 Yds.

This is the greatest season by a running back of all time for a litany of reasons. First off Brown ran for 1863 yards on LESS THAN 300 CARRIES. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry for an entire season, that’s incredible. Also, he was more dominant than it would originally appear. You thought Peterson leading the league in rushing by nearly 500 yards was impressive? Brown was one of two players to rush for 1000 yards in 1963. The other, Jim Taylor, ran for 1018. Yes, Jim Brown led the league in rushing by 845 yards; he nearly doubled the second best player’s production. He outran the league’s third-best rusher (Tim Brown 841 yards) by over 1000 yards. He tripled the production of the league’s 10^th-best rusher (Don Perkins). He ran for 55 more yards per game than anyone in the league. All hail Jim Brown, he is still the King of running backs, he may always be.

Stay Hungry, My Friends.

 

Wild Card Weekend Preview

  The dust has settled, the smoke has cleared and we’ve had a few days to consider the playoff matchups we’ll be treated to this wild-card weekend. So who will have the upper hand in a weekend that features a 2000-yard rusher, three rookie quarterbacks, a retiring legend and a quarterback who’s already done it all (Rodgers-MVP+Super Bowl)?

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5): Baltimore’s recent struggles (lost four of five to end the season) are well-documented but there has been little talk about the mightily-unimpressive Colts. In the last seven weeks of the season the Colts split with the free-falling Texans, got annihilated by the Patriots and barely beat the Lions, Chiefs, Bills and Titans. The Colts haven’t won a convincing game all season, they’re a few bounces from being 4-12. So how did they end up 11-5? There are two main reasons: Luck and Luck.

The Colts have played the easiest schedule of any playoff team and yet have found themselves down late in many of these games. This is where the other Luck comes in, Andrew. The rookie quarterback has led an astounding seven game-winning drives for the Colts. Meanwhile the Ravens have had trouble beating anyone lately. For the first time since…maybe ever, the defense looks vulnerable amidst a slew of injuries. The offense, led by a coordinator in his fifth game and …Joe Flacco isn’t much to fear either. The Pick: Indy may be unable to defeat very good teams or win convincingly, but they won’t have to against this depleted Ravens squad. I can’t fathom why this line is so high. Colts 24 Ravens 17

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) : These teams couldn’t have ended the season more differently. The Texans blew their 11-1 start and #1 seed and finished 12-4 while getting embarrassed by the Colts and Vikings. The Bengals, on the other hand, finished strong winning seven of their last eight. While the Bengals have played spectacular defense (allowed only 12.75 ppg in second half of the year), they’re most impressive wins came against banged up, underwhelming Steelers and Bengals teams. The offense, led by second year studs A. J. Green and Andy Dalton, is far more dangerous than the one that got thumped by Houston a year ago.

 Conversely, Houston’s defense is far weaker than it was a year ago or even a few weeks ago. After allowing 23 or more points only twice in the first nine games, the Texans have done so in five of the last seven games.

The Pick: The Bengals have a chance to break one of the most embarrassing streaks in the NFL this weekend (22 years without a playoff win) and they will Bengals 27 Texans 17.

Washington Redskins vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3) : Last year T.J. Yates and Andy Dalton faced off in the first ever matchup of two rookies in a playoff game. Somehow I think the second such matchup will have more appeal. Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson will face off in a battle of what could be the two best rookie quarterbacks of all time. Wilson tied Peyton Manning’s rookie record for touchdown passes (with 18 less interceptions, yes 18) while RG III brought the Redskins to life and gave DC area fans something to get excited about for the first time since Gus Frerrotte’s heyday.

 This is a tough game to preview for a few reasons; not the least of which is the bi-polar Seahawks. They went undefeated at home this season but were very beatable on the road. At the peak of their powers they appear to be a historically good team. They can throw, run with the QB and their 1500-yard-gaining- RB (Lynch). They play stellar D with a ferocious pass rush led by Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin as well as the best cornerback duo in the game with Richard Sherman and Walter Thurmond. Similarly, the Redskins have a two-head rushing attack and a quarterback who makes very few mistakes. But, as was evidenced in the game against the Cowboys, RG III is not totally healthy. If the Seahawks are able to contain Morris (which they’ve been able to do against most RB’s), they’ll have the Redskins backed into a corner.

The Pick: RG III has had a phenomenal season as have the Redskins as a whole, but the Seahawks appear to be Super Bowl contenders this year and will prove to be too much for the Skins to handle. Seattle 28 Washington 14

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (+7.5)

Although this is a matchup of teams that were one win apart and split games late in the season, one team is heavily favored over the other. This is not without good reason, however. The NFL is a quarterback-driven league and Aaron Rodgers is quite a step ahead of Christian Ponder. Yes, Ponder played well last week but things will be different on the road in an outdoor stadium in Green Bay in a playoff game.

Adrian Peterson appears to be enough to overcome any quarterback deficiency the Vikings may have but how will his body respond to the 34 carries he received last week? While many believe Peterson to be some sort of alien or cyborg, his humanity will be tested this weekend when he’ll almost surely be handed 24+ carries for the fifth week in a row.

The Pick: In the end, it comes down to the fact that Aaron Rodgers is among the best in the business and the Packers are just a better team. Green Bay 31 Minnesota 20

Ranking the Playoff Teams

For my playoff preview I’m going to do a ranking of the teams.  I’m going to rank the teams in order of how likely I think they all are of winning the Super Bowl.  Therefore seeding matters, because home field advantage and how many games they play matter, along with potential matchups and of course talent.  Now the rankings:

All stats found used in this piece either came from Pro Football Reference or Football Outsiders

12.   Indianapolis Colts

Look I love everything the Colts have done this year.  Andrew Luck in most seasons would be the clear winner for rookie of the year and “Chuckstrong” was the most heartwarming football story of the year.  The problem is that this team just doesn’t have the talent to win a Super Bowl.  By the website Football Outsiders metrics this team was the worst team they have ever covered with double digit wins, the team was the 25^th best team in football this season with the 18^th ranked offense, 31^st ranked defense and 12^th ranked special teams.  This team had a point differential of -30 points which equates to an expected record of 7.2-8.8.  By more traditional metrics this team ranked 18^th in points scored and 21^st in points allowed.  This team combined playing the easiest schedule in football with a record of 9-1 in games decided by 7 points or less into a playoff spot.  I do think the team could win this week because of the emotion but any more than 1 playoff win is basically impossible for a team with this little talent.

11.   Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are an interesting team.  They basically seem to be a lesser version of the Baltimore Ravens with one distinction, ADRIAN PETERSON!  This team despite having the best running back in football is quite mediocre offensively because of their weak quarterback play.  Christian Ponder despite a few good games this season has struggled for the most part.  By most metrics overall the team is quite mediocre offensively and defensively.  They are 14^th in points scored and points allowed, 20^th in yards for and 16^th in yards allowed, 14^th overall in Football Outsiders metrics, 15^th on offense and 21^st on defense.  The one advantage they do have over most teams in a 5^th ranked Special Teams.  Basically if they are going to win a playoff game they are going to need a monster game from Peterson and some game changing special teams’ plays.  A team with Christian Ponder at quarterback and a mediocre defense though isn’t winning the Super Bowl, no matter how good Adrian Peterson is.

10.   Cincinnati Bengals

There is a good argument to be made that this Bengals team should be ranked higher than this.  This team has a strong defense that in the 2^nd half of the season might have been the best in all of football, as it was the best by Football Outsiders metrics and allowed just 12.8 points per game.  However I’m still not sold on the team, they are mediocre offensively, ranking 17^th in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, ranked 12^th in points scored and 22^nd in points allowed.  Andy Dalton has been basically average the past 2 seasons, this season throwing for 27 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, with a quarterback ranking of 87.4, and a QBR(ESPN’s metric) of 50.73.  They have an average running game and one great receiver who if shutdown their entire team is dismantled.  I don’t think they are as good as they played in the 2^nd half of the season considering defensively they were awful in the season’s first half.  This team could surprise me but I see a 1^st round exit coming from the Bengals.

9.       Washington Redskins

If the Redskins didn’t have to play the Seahawks in Round 1 this team would likely be much higher.  The Redskins have an elite quarterback, an elite running game and an improving defense, however it is going to be extremely difficult for them to beat the Seahawks.  This Washington team while being quite good on offense isn’t at that same level defensively, or on special teams, where they are ranked 27^th.  When facing a well balanced team like the Seahawks, who know how to play against the read option that the Redskins utilize this, is going to be a tough task for the Redskins to overcome.  The Redskins are ranked this highly though because of Robert Griffin III.  In case you haven’t been reading every week, RGIII is probably my favorite player in all of football and has the talent to take a team on a miraculous Super Bowl run. 

8.       Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are mediocre offensively and defensively in almost every aspect, but they do have one thing going for them, the best special teams in football.  They have Joe Flacco at quarterback; a man who I’m pretty sure is the definition of an average NFL quarterback.  The team ranked 13^th in offensive DVOA, 10^th in points and 16^th in yards while defensively they ranked 19^th in DVOA, 12^th in points and 17^th in yards.  This team is only ranked ahead of the Redskins because while the Redskins play the Seahawks in the first round the Ravens get to play the Colts.  This team positively though will have the special teams advantage in every game it plays, will be playing under the context of Ray Lewis’ retirement, and knows it can beat the New England Patriots, a team it matches up surprisingly well against. 

7.       Houston Texans

Well there might not be a team playing worse going into the playoffs than the Houston Texans.  Since their week 10 victory over the Bears, the team beat the Lions and Jaguars in overtime, beat the Titans, got destroyed by the Patriots, beat the Colts and then lost to the Vikings and Colts.  This team is not the juggernaut that started the season but at this point is probably underrated.  Going into the New England game this team was 11-1 and looked like they might be the best team in all of football.  Defensively in the 2^nd half of the season while they weren’t as great as they were in the 1^st half they were still quite good.  Overall this team defensively ranked 3^rd in DVOA, 9^th in points allowed and 7^th in yards allowed.  They have by far the best defensive player in football in JJ Watt who if not for the amazing quarterback seasons and Adrian Peterson’s season would be a legit MVP candidate.  This team is quite frankly more talented than Cincinnati and should win this week because of it.  If they are able to return to their play of earlier in the season that beat Denver fairly handily, then this team could definitely make a run throughout the AFC Playoffs. 

6.       Green Bay Packers

There is a strong case that this team deserves to be ranked higher than 6^th.  This team by DVOA and was the 5^th best team in football with the 3^rd best offense, 8^th best defense and 18^th ranked special teams.  This doesn’t seem to hold up with traditional metrics that have them 5^th in points and 13^th in yards offensively while 11^th in both yards and points defensively.  This however makes more sense considering they played the 9^th most difficult schedule in football.  They have arguably the best quarterback in football in Aaron Rodgers which makes them extremely dangerous.  This defense is far improved over last year’s outfit but is fairly week against the run, something that could prove problematic against a team that plays Adrian Peterson in the 1^st round.  The team doesn’t run the ball well either, their leading runner had 464 yards, while their 2^nd leading rusher was Aaron Rodgers.  This team overall is probably better than the Falcons, but the extra game they have to play increases the difficult too much. 

5.       Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons were a team that was clearly worse than their record indicated.  The team played the easiest schedule in the NFC, went 7-2 in one score games and was just 10^th in DVOA.  However this team did go 13-3 this season and does have home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  Even if this team isn’t great, it is still very good and pretty dangerous.  It has a quarterback that while not in the top tier of NFL quarterbacks is just a little behind them in Matt Ryan.  He has weapons in Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones to deliver the ball to that should help to make up for its weak running game.  Its defense is pretty good against the pass, the far more important part of NFL defenses.  I don’t expect this team to win the NFC or the Super Bowl but they have home field advantage and a first round bye making the task a definite possibility. 

4.       Seattle Seahawks

Of all teams playing this upcoming weekend the Seahawks have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl.  Based on DVOA this is the most balanced team in football, they are 1^st in the NFL, while being 4^th in offense, 4^th in defense and 3^rd in special teams.  This team has a great rookie quarterback that runs the Read Option incredibly well, a great running back in Marshawn Lynch, and a defense that is strong against both the run and the pass.  Really if this team had a first round bye there’s a strong chance I would have considered them the favorite.  Really the only thing going against this team is that it is consistently stronger at home than it is on the road.  This team was 8-0 at home compared to 3-5, including a win in Buffalo’s yearly Toronto “home” game, on the road a considerable difference considering the team is likely going to have to win 3 road games to get to the Super Bowl and a neutral site game to win it. 

3.       San Francisco 49ers

This year’s 49ers team is very much like last year’s outfit defensively but offensively it is much improved.  This team has gone from the mediocre outfit of last year to the very good offense the team has shown this year by any metric.  The team is 11^th in both points scored and points allowed, while 5^th in DVOA, the difference showing up in the fact the 49ers play in a division that includes itself included 4 of the top 7 defenses in all of football by DVOA.  Whether that is due to the improved play of Alex Smith when he played or the quite impressive play of Collin Kaepernick when he took the helm, the offense was much improved.  This team is without question the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but faces a problem the top AFC teams do not face when it comes to getting there.  The NFC has in my mind 4 teams that could realistically come out of the conference and win the Super Bowl, while the AFC contains 2 such teams. 

2.       New England Patriots

Well here we are again; the Patriots are the 2^nd seed in the AFC and are one of the favorites for the Super Bowl.  This team has the best offense in football by almost every metric, finishing 1^st in points scored, yards and in offensive DVOA.  The defense is even improved over last year finishing 15^th in DVOA, 9^th in points allowed, and 25^th in yards allowed.  This defense is not great but the addition of Aqib Talib has made them more than respectable.  The team still has Tom Brady, the most dangerous offensive weapon in football in Rob Gronkowski along with other weapons, and even an effective running attack led by Stephen Ridley.  This team has the ability to score on anybody, and is quite close to Denver in quality.  Overall though I think the lack of home field advantage is enough to make them slight underdogs to get to the Superbowl.

1.       Denver Broncos

Now onto the football team that hasn’t lost since early October.  One of the two teams in football that by DVOA has a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense, finishing 2^nd in offense and 5^th in defense.  This team has home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs and o I forgot to mention Peyton Manning who might just be the best quarterback in football again.  This team is ranked 2^nd overall in DVOA, finishing only behind the Seahawks.  Really the only noticeable criticism of their resume would be to say they haven’t beaten anyone good.  They lost to the Falcons, Patriots and Texans early in the season, the 3 best teams they played and beat only 2 playoff teams all season, the Bengals and Ravens.  Personally I think the Broncos are just a better team than the one that lost those 3 early season games and Peyton Manning’s arm strength has increased tremendously since then.  If it I had to handicap it, as shocking as it might be, the Peyton Manning led Denver Broncos are the favorites to win the Super Bowl right now. 

Stay Hungry My Friends