The Incredible Race for AL MVP

Image courtesy of www.ibtimes.com

Last year, after an infuriating and disheartening debate, Miguel Cabrera was awarded the American League MVP. It seemed as though many of the voters were so intent on “sticking it” to the “stat nerds” that they missed the part where they were supposed to determine who the best baseball player was.

 

Either that or the voting community has a severe misunderstanding of what makes a great baseball player.

 

I hope that this doesn’t happen again. I hope those who are paid to analyze players to the best of their abilities do just that. I hope the voters spend more than 10 minutes thinking about who was the most valuable player. I hope so because this year is no two-man race. This year’s race for AL MVP is shaping up to be the best one of the decade.

 

Miguel Cabrera became the first player with 30 home runs and 90 RBI’s before the All-Star break; Chris Davis became the second  to do so days later.

 

Davis’s 37 home runs were the most of anyone before the All-Star break since 2001 (And that year was uh…moving on…).

 

Mike Trout became the first player ever to hit five triples, 25 doubles, 15 home runs and bat .315 before the All-Star break.

 

Manny Machado has already hit 39 doubles and is challenging for the all-time record of 67.

Only one of these guys can win MVP. So, who deserves it?

 

All stats courtesy of ESPN, Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs.

 

*Disclaimer: I won’t use RBI’s when making my case for anyone. You can read why here. No further questions!

 

The case for Cabrera: .360/.454/.664 31 home runs 5.5 WAR

Yup. That’s about all I can say for Mr. Cabrera. He’s leading the AL in WAR, OBP, batting average and OPS. His BABIP is high (.375), but not for-sure unsustainably high.Yes, he plays awful defense and yes, he’s a two-tool player. But he’s so incredible at what he does (hitting for power and contact, drawing walks, grimacing) that it doesn’t matter. He’s on pace to hit over .350 with 50 home runs. If he does that, the MVP is as good as his. And this time, he’ll deserve it.

 

The case for Mike Trout: .322/.401/.569 16 home runs, 21 steals. 4.7 WAR, 5.9 OWAR

After a somewhat disappointing April, Trout has really come on the past two months, hitting .361 since June 1. For reasons that are beyond my understanding, Trout’s defensive metrics were God-awful early in the season, dropping his WAR all the way (gasp!) a ninth-place tie instead of miles ahead of the competition like last year. But both his offensive and defensive numbers have been on a steady climb since early May. This makes him the favorite to deserve MVP if Cabrera quits/gets arrested/suffers amnesia. And he’s still only 21. He’s drawn comparisons to Mickey Mantle and that’s not totally fair. Even Mantle wasn’t this good this young.

 

The case for Chris Davis:.313/.388/.707, 37 home runs, 4.4 WAR

At first glance it appears Davis should have the upper hand on Trout. And that would have been true on June 1. But just as Trout has ascended since over the past 53 days, Davis has regressed. He’s hit .260 in that time with an OBP hovering around .300. Yikes. But he’s also hit 18 home runs in that time. And if he’s able to maintain his power pace, he has a realistic shot as 60. His MVP candidacy will hang on that along with discovering whether or not his issues in the past month and a half have been the result of a slump or regression.

 

The case for Manny Machado: .310/.337/.467, 39 doubles, 2.7 DWAR, 5.1 WAR

This is a tough case to make as Machado plays the same position as Cabrera…just seemingly not as well. The best way to make this case is to point out that Machado is the best defensive third baseman in baseball while Cabrera is likely the worst. But how much is defense really worth? According to Baseball Reference, Machado’s defense has been worth 3.5 more wins than Cabrera’s. But people who know things about math don’t trust defensive metrics in a sample size of less than three years.

Basically: Machado is incredible for a 21-year old. He’ll continue to get better. He’s already a defensive marvel. He’ll likely win multiple MVP’s in his career. But it’s going to take a hell of a second half for one of those MVP’s to come in 2013.

 

Dark horse watch:

Dustin Pedroia: .313/.391/.430. 1.8 DWAR

David Ortiz: .322/.404/.610 19 home runs

Robinson Cano: .302/.385/.529. 22 home runs

Joe Mauer: .323/.406/.476.

Any of these guys could, theoretically, win MVP with the right second half (although, I have trouble imagining Ortiz playing any better in the second half).

 

Verdict: This MVP is Cabrera’s to lose. Forgetting any lazy narratives surrounding a second “Triple Crown” or an RBI record, he’s having a hell of a season.

Stay hungry, my friends.