How the NFC West Will be Won Part II: The Running Game

Image Courtesy of www.Seahawks.com 

 

(This post is part of an on-going series detailing which team in the NFC West has the upper hand in each facet of the game. This post originally appeared on Stoop Sports.)

 







It’s no great secret that the running game isn’t as vital to success in the NFL as it once was. The 2011 Giants won the Super Bowl despite being last in the NFL in rushing. The Steelers and Cardinals put on one of the more entertaining games in NFL history in Super Bowl XLIII despite both averaging less than four yards per carry in the regular season.

 Gone are the days of one-back power-running offense. That’s not to say the running game is dead; it has simply evolved. Many of the league’s best offenses were run-based in 2012, using the read-option as their weapon of choice. Nowhere was this more prevalent than the NFC West.

Arizona: Yikes. That’s the best way to describe the Arizona run game during the Ken Whisenhunt era. The Cardinals finished last in total rushing yards in 2012, 2010 and 2008. They haven’t finished higher than 22^nd since 2002 despite seemingly consistent investment in running backs (Edgerrin James, Beanie Wells, Ryan Williams). Part of the reason they’ve been so inept at running the ball has been the abysmal play of their offensive line. They’ve taken steps to change that by signing tackle Eric Winston and drafting guard Jonathan Cooper. They also took a flyer on former Steeler Rashard Mendenhall. They might not possess a fearsome rushing attack just yet, but the Cardinals have taken steps to move out of the league’s run-game cellar.

San Francisco:

The 49ers have perhaps the league’s most dangerous running game. Coach Jim Harbaugh has employed a cutting-edge and multi-faced attack that ran his team to an NFC title in 2012.

In 2011, the Niners attempted to physically dominate teams with fantastic offensive line play and power-back Frank Gore. They were still able to do this in 2012; but added another dimension to the attack when dual-threat quarterback Colin Kaepernick took over the starting job late in the season. Kaepernick, who may be the best running quarterback in league history, made the 49er offense nearly unstoppable when executed properly.

The read-option, which usually involved Gore, Kaepernick and fullback Delanie Walker (among a litany of receiving options), will likely have a different look this year after Walker’s departure. Many have also raised concerns about the age (30) and career workload (1911 carries) of Gore. The good news for the Niners is they have plenty of depth and options with Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James and (eventually) Marcus Lattimore.

Right now it appears the run game is in danger of taking a step back. That is, if you’re ignoring the Harbaugh factor. And I’m not. There’s no way he doesn’t get a top-seven rushing attack out of his running back talent, Kaepernick and this offensive line. It’s the surest thing in football.

Seattle: Switch out Harbaugh for Pete Carroll, Kaepernick for Russell Wilson and Frank Gore for Marshawn Lynch and essentially everything I said about San Francisco is true about Seattle. The Seahawks mix a power running game with a read-option and employ a young, dual-threat quarterback who’s just as dangerous throwing on the run as he is taking off. The only differences are Lynch doesn’t have quite the mileage Gore does and we have a full season of evidence of Wilson’s greatness as opposed to less than a half-season of Kaepernick. I don’t know which team will have a better run attack; but I can almost guarantee the Seahawks will join San Francisco as one of the league’s most productive rushing attacks.

St. Louis: An era came to an end in St. Louis this offseason when perennial pro-bowl running back Steven Jackson decided it would interesting to see what it’d be like to play in the playoffs at some point before he retired.

Since the Rams are coached by Jeff Fisher, you can count on them running the ball. If it were 10 years ago, I’d use this area to speculate who among Daryl Richardson, Zach Stacy and Isiah Pead would earn the starting job. But in the era of backfield platoons, it’s just a matter of who will get more carries.

No one’s going to mistake the Rams for the 49ers or the Seahawks; but they’re totally capable of putting forth a solid rushing attack.

Contenders and Pretenders in the Late-Season Pennant Push

Image courtesy of SportsIllustrated.CNN.com

As we move into the final two months of perhaps the most exciting MLB season in 15 years, we can began to see teams that have posing as contenders all year fall off and teams that haven’t quite reached their potential ready to emerge. This is, of course, no different than any other season.

In 2011 the Cardinals came on in August after toiling below .500 for much of the season to win the World Series. Last year the Tigers and Giants sat in second place in their respective divisions for much of the season before coming on in August and winning the World Series. It’s not out of the question that something similar could happen this season. So who’s coming on and who’s falling off?

 

Coming on:

Detroit:

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have now won 26 of their last 32 games. And while they’re 10-0 in their last 10 games decided by one run or in extra innings, it’s become clear that they’re a team capable of winning the NL West.

 

The pitching has been incredible lately for Los Angeles just as it has been all season. The addition of Ricky Nolasco makes the Dodgers a tough team to hit against no matter who starts. And of course, Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball again.

 

The driving force behind this hot streak has been the collective emergences of Yaisel Puig, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez. While Puig and Ramirez have been given plenty of credit for their performance, Gonzalez has gone somewhat quietly unnoticed as he leads the team in average, on-base percentage, home runs and hits.

 

The Dodgers may now be on-par with St. Louis and Atlanta pitching-wise with just enough offense to win. The only remaining task for them is to hold off the Diamondbacks who sit just two and a half games back for the divisional lead.

 

Cincinnati: Ok, so losing three in a row isn’t exactly “coming on.” But the Reds are in a better position than most realize. While plenty of attention has been paid to the division-leading Cardinals and the upstart Pirates, the Reds sit only five games out of the division lead. They are more than capable of making a run at the division title. Even if they don’t, they have a fairly comfortable lead in the wild card. Plus the pitching (Arroyo/Leake/Cingrani/Latos/Bailey) to make life difficult for anyone they may have to face off against in the playoffs. Barring some sort of collapse, the Reds will be a playoff team come October. And they’ll be just as much a World Series contender as anyone in the National League.

 

Tampa Bay: THAT is how you come on in July. The Rays won 21 of 24 to rise from afterthought to AL East division leader. They’re now duking it out with the Red Sox for AL East supremacy.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of this run is that the Rays now trail only Detroit, Boston, Baltimore, St. Louis and Cleveland in runs scored. Read that again. The Tampa Bay Rays are sixth in THE ENTIRE LEAGUE in runs scored. Obviously calling up Wil Myers has been huge (.328/.354/.537), James Loney has been the free agent steal of the year (.321/.369/.469), Evan Longoria has returned well (.352 OBP, 21 home runs)and Ben Zobrist has done some Ben Zobrist things (team-leading 23 doubles, 2.6 OWAR).

 

This offensive surge came just at the right time as the Rays are only a slightly above-average pitching team this year. They’ve struggled through injuries to David Price (who has since returned) and Alex Cobb. Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore are a combined 24-6 but Moore has been inconsistent while Hellickson has been average at best much of the season. Roberto Hernandez made 20 starts this season despite an ERA hovering around five.

 

But now that Chris Archer has been added to the fold, Price has returned and Moore has pitched well of late, the pitching staff seems to be in good order.

 

Falling off:

New York Yankees: While I think the Soriano deal was a good move for the Yankees, it won’t save them from their impending doom. They’ve been a sub .500 team for the past seven weeks (18-24); that’s not a slump. They’ve lived off the lucky starts of Vernon Wells, Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay but it appears their chickens have come home to roost. All three of those players are now playing at a sub-replacement level. Derek Jeter is the only one of the injured crew that appears will play this season. Kevin Youkalis has been a bust, Eduardo Nunez has been awful given every-day responsibility and Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira have been on the shelf nearly the entire season.

 

All of that and I haven’t even brought up C.C. Sabathia or Alex Rodriguez yet. This will not be a playoff team.

 

San Francisco: The San Francisco Giants are a bad baseball team. No bad luck here; they’re 12 games under .500 with a -62 run differential. Sure, Matt Cain hasn’t been himself and Ryan Vogelsong was a train-wreck when he pitched. But could they really have expected more than slightly above average from Tim Lincecum and Barry Zitto?

 

The same can be said for the offense. The injury to Angel Pagan hurt but a lack of depth hurt even more. The Giants put out three near- automatic outs in a lineup that severely lacks power every night. In just four months they’ve gone from talk of a dynasty to being out of the playoff race before August.

 

So, that’s that. As you may have noticed, not many teams have exactly fallen off yet. Should make for quite an exciting final two months.

Stay hungry, my friends.

How the NFC West Will be Won Part I: Wide Receivers

Image courtesy of thevisiontherapycenter.com

(I've recently been accepted as an NFC West columnist at Stoop Sports. So I'll be re-posting all of my work to here as well. Just in case you were wondering why there seems to be a disproportionate amount of NFC West coverage.)

After the Draft and Free Agency dust had settled, it appeared as though the receiver position was stronger in the NFC West than any mere mortal division. Then everything from a torn Achilles to a busted hip totally changed the outlook of the division’s vertical game. So how does each team stack up at receiver heading in to training camp?

Arizona: Not only do the Cardinals have the best receiver in the division in Larry Fitzgerald, they have one of the 20 greatest receivers in NFL history. But it’s no secret that Arizona’s below-average quarterback play has held Fitzgerald back at least somewhat the last three seasons. This was never more true than last season when the quarterback play resembled an NFL Films blooper special. Hell, their entire season on offense should have been narrated by Steve Sabol while funny music played in the background.

The motley crew of Ryan Lindley, Jon Skelton, Kevin Kolb and Brian Hoyer held Fitz to 71 catches for 798 yards. Fitzgerald will be 30 when the 2013 opener rolls around so while it’s safe to assume he’ll be better off with Carson Palmer at quarterback, one has to wonder how much of his drop in production is related to his age.

On the bright side for Arizona, last year’s first-round pick and Fitzgerald’s heir-apparent, Michael Floyd put up respectable numbers (45 rec. 562 yards) for a rookie playing with horrendous quarterbacks. There will be plenty of pressure on Floyd to show second-year growth especially after 2013 draft pick Ryan Swope has elected to retire due to concussion issues. Beyond Floyd; Andre Roberts is the only receiver who has had any production at the pro level.

While the wide receiver position is anything but perfect in Arizona right now, it has potential. When the Cardinals struggle in 2013, it will be because of a tough divisional schedule and growing pains more than anything else.

Seattle: In 2012 Russell Wilson took the NFL by storm and tied Peyton Manning’s rookie touchdown record (26) with a receiving core that redefined mediocrity (Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Zach Miller and Doug Baldwin took the brunt of the receiving load in 2012). So you’ll have to excuse Seattle fans for being slightly bummed out at the possibility of losing free-agent signee Percy Harvin for the season. Harvin is one of the more dynamic and versatile offensive threats in the NFL.

While Rice has never replicated his 2009 success, he’s a capable number one option especially in an offense predicated on the run/read-option. The player to watch in this receiving core may be Baldwin as he moves from year one to year two.

So, while the Seahawks will be without Harvin’s added value, they’re more than competent at the receiver position.

San Francisco: Just a year removed from making the jump to “elite” status, star receiver Michael Crabtree will likely sit out all of 2013 with a torn Achilles tendon. Jim Harbaugh and the Niners hope Anquan Boldin, whom they received for almost nothing in a trade with the Ravens, can replace Crabtree’s production. Boldin is among the most productive receivers in NFL history but has been nothing more than average the past three seasons. He almost certainly can’t replace Crabtree but as 2012 showed; he’s capable of being the first option on a championship team.

Beyond Boldin, Kaepernick will have plenty of capable targets with Vernon Davis and Mario Manningham returning. It will also be interesting to see who among Ted Ginn Jr., Kyle Williams, Delanie Walker and A.J Jenkins takes on a more prominent role.

The Crabtree injury certainly won’t help the 49ers chances, but if there’s one coach who can minimize the damage it causes, it’s Jim Harbaugh.

St. Louis: Youth is the operative word for the St. Louis receiving core. After losing Danny Amendola to the Patriots, the Rams will rely heavily on the production of young receivers. They spent first and third-round draft picks on Tavon Austin and Bailey Stedman in an attempt to finally surround Sam Bradford with quality targets. Joining the rookie duo will be young wide-outs Chris Givens (23), Lance Kendricks (25) and Austin Pettis (25). It goes without saying that development and growth will be key for the Rams in 2013. But after going 7-8-1 with the league’s second-toughest schedule in 2012, the Rams may be primed for more than just growth and development. It will be interesting to see how this receiving core stands up to late-game challenges in December and (perhaps) January.

Stay hungry, my friends.

The Incredible Race for AL MVP

Image courtesy of www.ibtimes.com

Last year, after an infuriating and disheartening debate, Miguel Cabrera was awarded the American League MVP. It seemed as though many of the voters were so intent on “sticking it” to the “stat nerds” that they missed the part where they were supposed to determine who the best baseball player was.

 

Either that or the voting community has a severe misunderstanding of what makes a great baseball player.

 

I hope that this doesn’t happen again. I hope those who are paid to analyze players to the best of their abilities do just that. I hope the voters spend more than 10 minutes thinking about who was the most valuable player. I hope so because this year is no two-man race. This year’s race for AL MVP is shaping up to be the best one of the decade.

 

Miguel Cabrera became the first player with 30 home runs and 90 RBI’s before the All-Star break; Chris Davis became the second  to do so days later.

 

Davis’s 37 home runs were the most of anyone before the All-Star break since 2001 (And that year was uh…moving on…).

 

Mike Trout became the first player ever to hit five triples, 25 doubles, 15 home runs and bat .315 before the All-Star break.

 

Manny Machado has already hit 39 doubles and is challenging for the all-time record of 67.

Only one of these guys can win MVP. So, who deserves it?

 

All stats courtesy of ESPN, Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs.

 

*Disclaimer: I won’t use RBI’s when making my case for anyone. You can read why here. No further questions!

 

The case for Cabrera: .360/.454/.664 31 home runs 5.5 WAR

Yup. That’s about all I can say for Mr. Cabrera. He’s leading the AL in WAR, OBP, batting average and OPS. His BABIP is high (.375), but not for-sure unsustainably high.Yes, he plays awful defense and yes, he’s a two-tool player. But he’s so incredible at what he does (hitting for power and contact, drawing walks, grimacing) that it doesn’t matter. He’s on pace to hit over .350 with 50 home runs. If he does that, the MVP is as good as his. And this time, he’ll deserve it.

 

The case for Mike Trout: .322/.401/.569 16 home runs, 21 steals. 4.7 WAR, 5.9 OWAR

After a somewhat disappointing April, Trout has really come on the past two months, hitting .361 since June 1. For reasons that are beyond my understanding, Trout’s defensive metrics were God-awful early in the season, dropping his WAR all the way (gasp!) a ninth-place tie instead of miles ahead of the competition like last year. But both his offensive and defensive numbers have been on a steady climb since early May. This makes him the favorite to deserve MVP if Cabrera quits/gets arrested/suffers amnesia. And he’s still only 21. He’s drawn comparisons to Mickey Mantle and that’s not totally fair. Even Mantle wasn’t this good this young.

 

The case for Chris Davis:.313/.388/.707, 37 home runs, 4.4 WAR

At first glance it appears Davis should have the upper hand on Trout. And that would have been true on June 1. But just as Trout has ascended since over the past 53 days, Davis has regressed. He’s hit .260 in that time with an OBP hovering around .300. Yikes. But he’s also hit 18 home runs in that time. And if he’s able to maintain his power pace, he has a realistic shot as 60. His MVP candidacy will hang on that along with discovering whether or not his issues in the past month and a half have been the result of a slump or regression.

 

The case for Manny Machado: .310/.337/.467, 39 doubles, 2.7 DWAR, 5.1 WAR

This is a tough case to make as Machado plays the same position as Cabrera…just seemingly not as well. The best way to make this case is to point out that Machado is the best defensive third baseman in baseball while Cabrera is likely the worst. But how much is defense really worth? According to Baseball Reference, Machado’s defense has been worth 3.5 more wins than Cabrera’s. But people who know things about math don’t trust defensive metrics in a sample size of less than three years.

Basically: Machado is incredible for a 21-year old. He’ll continue to get better. He’s already a defensive marvel. He’ll likely win multiple MVP’s in his career. But it’s going to take a hell of a second half for one of those MVP’s to come in 2013.

 

Dark horse watch:

Dustin Pedroia: .313/.391/.430. 1.8 DWAR

David Ortiz: .322/.404/.610 19 home runs

Robinson Cano: .302/.385/.529. 22 home runs

Joe Mauer: .323/.406/.476.

Any of these guys could, theoretically, win MVP with the right second half (although, I have trouble imagining Ortiz playing any better in the second half).

 

Verdict: This MVP is Cabrera’s to lose. Forgetting any lazy narratives surrounding a second “Triple Crown” or an RBI record, he’s having a hell of a season.

Stay hungry, my friends. 

What the National League All-Star Team Should Look Like

Image courtesy of mypinstripes.blogspot.com

So, it’s about that time of year where we bicker and argue about who should or shouldn’t represent their league in the All-Star Game. The debates surrounding who should play in the game are almost as American as baseball itself.

 

When I wrote my season preview  for the National League, I made the claim that they were now the dominant league. And while a few teams have disappointed so far, they seem to clearly be the better league. Their All-Star lineup will reflect that.

 

So, without further ado, here is what the All-Star Game lineup should look like. Part one covered the American League. Here’s part two, covering the National League.

 

Positions were determined by the official MLB All Star ballot. All stats are courtesy of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs and as of July 7.

 

First Base: Joey Votto .322/.433/.515, 15 home runs, 3.8 WAR

Votto’s turning out yet another fantastic season. After an injury derailed his MVP-level campaign last year, he’s come back nearly as strong. He isn’t hitting for as many doubles as usual but his home run rate is up from the last two seasons and he’s leading the league in walks and on-base percentage. There are a lot of great hitters in the game right now but no one makes outs less often than Votto.

Reserves: Paul Goldschmidt, Allen Craig

 

Second Base: Matt Carpenter .319/.391/.491, 25 doubles, 3.8 WAR

Carpenter, along with the rest of the St. Louis infield, has made the transition into the post-Pujols era quite smooth for the Cardinals. He hits for contact, often for extra bases, and plays solid defense. The season he’s having is all you can ask for from a second baseman.

Reserves: Brandon Phillips, Marco Scutaro

 

Shortstop: Jean Segura .321/.354/.490, 11 home runs, 26 steals

The speedster from San Juan came out of nowhere this year to become one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in baseball. He hits for contact, has some pop and steals like crazy. Segura came over to Milwaukee from Los Angeles in last year’s Zach Greinke trade. It’s beginning to seem that trade was a steal for the Brewers.

Reserves: Troy Tulowitzki, Everth Cabrera

 

Third Base: David Wright .304/.393/.519, 13 home runs, 14 steals 4.7 WAR

The fact that there was even some question to whether Wright should start the game is a joke. Wright is a five-tool guy playing at the peak of his powers. If the season ended today, he’d very likely win his first MVP. There are very few players in the league with as solid an all-around game as Wright. It’s just too bad he’s not a part of a better organization.

Reserves: Pedro Alvarez, David Freese

 

Catcher: Yadier Molina .346/.388/.490, 3.6 WAR

If Wright isn’t the favorite for MVP, it has to be Molina. His numbers are mind-boggling. He’s a 30-year old catcher who has been hovering around a .350 batting average all season. Once upon a time you’d never see a catcher challenging for a batting title. But now it’s become almost commonplace thanks to guys like Molina and Joe Mauer.

Reserves: Buster Posey, Jon Lucroy

 

Outfield: Carlos Gonzalez .303/.369/.622, 24 home runs, 15 steals, 4.3 WAR

Over the past four seasons, CarGo has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball. Perhaps it’s because his brilliance is often confined among the Rocky Mountains, but Gonzalez rarely receives his proper due as one of the game’s best sluggers. Maybe if the Rockies are able to continue to compete in the NL West people will realize what a special player he is.

 

Outfield: Andrew McCutchen .301/.372/.467, 18 steals, 4.3 WAR

While McCutchen’s home run rate has dropped this year, he’s still hitting, getting on base and playing defense at an elite level. He’s continued to improve as a five-tool player and, incredibly, the face of the franchise that has the best record in baseball going into the All-Star break.

 

Outfield: Starling Marte .294/.345/.460, 27 steals, 1.1 DWAR, 3.7 WAR

That’s right. There are two Pirates outfielders deserving of an All-Star game start. The World is not ending, I just checked. Marte isn’t much of a power hitter and isn’t exactly Pete Rose either. But he gets on a decent amount, he’s a wild card on the base paths and he’s one of the league’s best fielding outfielders. Marte has been one of the driving forces in turning the Pirates offense from totally useful to pretty competent this season.

Reserves: Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Shin Soo Choo, Carlos Gomez

 

Pitcher: Matt Harvey: 7-2, 2.27 ERA, .911 WHIP, 141 Strikeouts, 27 Walks

Just over a month into his rookie season, Harvey was the subject of a Sports Illustrated cover that called him “the Dark Knight of Gotham.” The title fit. And just like the real Batman, Harvey is constantly let down by those around him. Week in and week out he gives the Mets an incredible seven or so innings only to earn a no-decision. The 24-year old already has more of those than wins. The All-Star game will provide him with a unique experience: a chance to play with an offense capable of scoring more than three runs.

Reserves: Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright

 (I understand there will be 10+ pitchers but these are the ones I think have a case to start the game.)

Stay hungry, my friends. 

What the American League All-Star Team Should Look Like

 

Image Courtesy of en.Wikipedia.org

Well, we’re here. We’ve reached the halfway point of a strange and surprising 2013 campaign. We’ve seen Vernon Wells hit like an all-star for a month and then like infant since. We’ve seen a multitude of young players thrust themselves into the spotlight and earn some well-deserved all-star discussion. We’ve seen teams with World Series aspirations stumble out of the gate and we’ve seen teams that weren’t given a second thought in spring training contend in and lead playoff races. We’ve seen the sport’s premier franchise begin a descent into mediocrity and another titan climb back into relevancy.

So, it’s about that time of year where we bicker and argue about who should or shouldn’t represent their league in the All-Star Game. The debates surrounding who should play in the game are almost as American as baseball itself.

So, without further ado, here is what the All-Star Game lineups should look like. Part one will cover the American League.

Positions were determined by the official MLB All Star ballot. All stats are courtesy of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs and as of July 3.

First Base: Chris Davis .329/.405/.721, 32 home runs, 4.1 WAR

Full disclosure: I had no idea who Chris Davis was before 2012. And I’m certainly not alone on that front. Up until last season he was a nobody; just another guy. Then, in 2012, he established himself as a decent power hitter in a playoff lineup. This year he has surpassed the expectations of even his mom and girlfriend (I’m assuming) by posting some of the best hitting numbers in years. He’s the first guy in more than a decade to hit 30 home runs before the All-Star break and his heroics have the Orioles vying for a second-consecutive playoff appearance. He’s not just an all-star, he might be the post-steroid era’s most unexpected MVP.

Reserves: Adam Lind, James Loney

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia .321/.404/.421, 4.1 WAR, 1.3 DWAR

The 2008 AL MVP has personified the Red Sox resurgence better than any player save for Clay Buchholz. In 2012 he posted his lowest on-base and OPS numbers since his rookie year while the Sox finished in last. This year Boston is leading the AL East and Pedroia has one of the 10 highest batting averages in the American League to go with his stellar defense. This pick’s a no-brainer; there is no second baseman in the AL having close to an all-around season as Pedroia.

Reserves: Robinson Cano, Howie Kendrick

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy .263/.300/.450, 15 home runs, 1.2 DWAR

At first glance this may seem ridiculous. But it speaks more to the lack of quality hitters at the shortstop position than anything else. Hardy’s not bad by any stretch; it’s just strange to see him as the most deserving shortstop to start the All-Star Game. His on-base percentage is ugly but he hits for decent contact, good power for an infielder and he’s an excellent defender. It appears baseball needs Derek Jeter now more than ever.

Reserves: Jhonny Peralta, Jed Lowrie

Third Base: Miguel Cabrera .368/.458/.678, 1.136 OPS, 26 home runs, 4.9 WAR

After winning the Triple Crown as the second-best player in the American League in 2012, Cabrera has somehow improved and is on pace to top his home run and RBI totals while his batting numbers have also sky-rocketed. Because of Brady Anderso- er, I mean Chris Davis, Cabrera likely won’t win the Triple Crown again this year. But he’s the favorite to earn his second consecutive MVP. And this time, he might actually deserve it.

Reserves: Manny Machado, Evan Longoria

Catcher: Joe Mauer .318/.402/.475, 3.7 WAR

I understand he’s not much of a catcher anymore, but this is where Mauer was listed on the voting site. He may now be more known for commercials than baseball but make no mistake; Mauer is still one of the best contact hitters in the game. There’s no catcher in the American League who comes close to rivaling his hitting prowess.  

Reserves: Jose Molina, Carlos Santana

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz .320/.406/.607, 16 home runs

When he’s healthy Ortiz is still one of the game’s best sluggers. He’s remained effective at 37- so long as you don’t ask him to play the field or leg out a double. Ortiz is one of the game’s best pure hitters, the perfect DH.

Reserve: Edwin Encarnacion

Outfield: Mike Trout .315/.391/.542, 13 home runs, 20 steals 3.4 OWAR

Trout isn’t quite playing up to the standards of his God-like 2012 rookie campaign. He’s stealing fewer bases, hitting for less power and his defensive metrics have plunged (although that’s likely due to poor luck more than anything). But he’s hitting more doubles and triples and has been on a tear (.358/.433/.541) the past month or so. He likely won’t be a part of any MVP controversy this year but, if things break right, he could be in the thick of the batting title race.

Outfield: Alex Gordon .288/.349/.421, 2.4 WAR

Over the past few seasons baseball fans have had to adjust to considering Gordon a guy who reached his potential later than intended instead of a total bust. He hits for average, gets on base, has some pop, hits a TON of doubles (usually) and plays solid defense.  This has actually been the weakest of the last three years for Gordon. After hitting 96 doubles the past two seasons, he has only 15 this year. However, this is also the weakest year for American League outfielders so Gordon may finally have his shot to start.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury .299/.362/.406, 33 steals, 1.0 DWAR

Ellsbury is the third of four Red Sox I’ve slated to start the game. Much like his teammates, he’s rebounded from a disappointing 2012 season. Ellsbury was plagued with injuries throughout the season and played in only 74 games. This year he’s re-established himself as the classic leadoff type. He hits for contact, leads the AL in steals and plays solid defense.

Reserves: Shane Victorino, Brett Gardner, Leonys Martin

Pitcher: Clay Buchholz 9-0, 1.71 ERA, 1.020 WHIP

Of all the quick turnarounds in Boston, this one may be the most dramatic (of the positive ones that is. Mr. Rask and Mr. Hernandez are fighting over the negative side right now). Buchholz went from a below-average starter to Cy Young favorite in one season. Although he’s been injured for about a month now, he’s at least earned the recognition of being an All-Star starter even if he won’t be able to play in the game.  

Reserves: Max Scherzer, Hisashi Iwakuma (I understand there will be 10+ pitchers but these are the ones I think have a case to start the game.)

Part II with the National League lineup will be out some time tomorrow. Stay hungry, my friends. 

Updated: Ranking the Last 10 Stanley Cup Champions

Image Courtesy of suntimes.com

(As has been done for all the “ranking the last 10 champions” lists we’ve made, I’ve updated the rankings in the NHL list to reflect the last 10 teams to win the Stanley Cup. I made a few changes
elsewhere but, for the most part, this is the same column that ran last summer. So feel free to skip
down to the new section if any of this sounds familiar.)

 

A couple weeks ago Mike ranked the past ten NBA Champions. We liked the idea so much, we decided to do it for the other three major sports. First I’ll be covering the past ten Stanley Cup champions. This takes us back to 2002 because of the lockout in 2004-05. You remember...that totally necessary lockout where all the players had their demands met and the game was changed so that it would never be defensively dominated or low scoring ever again. Oh what's that? None of the players demands were met and hockey is back to being as much of a low scoring, shot blocking game as it's ever been? Ah I see.

 

I made quite the observation in researching these teams. Despite all the talk of the playoffs being random and the regular season not mattering; the teams that win generally deserve to win. You don't really see too many surprise teams, teams that got hot at the right time, or teams that weren't a championship caliber. Overall, this was the under-rated decade of champions and classic finals in general.

 

So there were a few factors I took into account when making my list and they're not nearly as complicated as the ones Mike used for his NBA list. Instead I judged teams based on their regular season performance, their postseason performance, who they beat, and the manner in which they beat them. So without further ado, here's my list:

 

10. 2006 Carolina Hurricanes: If there's ever a championship you don't want to win, it's the one right after a lockout. Basketball and baseball have shown that lockouts tend to provide strange and forgettable champions. This year's Heat are an exception for a few reasons (LeBron, the over-pervasive media, LeBron, the decision, LeBron, the shortness of the lockout, and of course LeBron). But in general, post lockout championships are like winning a pick-up basketball game at a family party after there's a huge fight/argument between other members of the family earlier in the party. No one cares that you won; they're just going to remember the fight. Such is the trouble with teams that win after lockouts. The Canes benefitted from the major changeover that occurred over the course of the lockout year. They benefitted from some of the weakest competition any Cup winner has ever faced. It took them the full seven games to put away the upstart, less talented Sabres who had five injured regulars including four of the top six defensemen. In the finals it again took them seven to do away with the untalented 8th seeded Oilers who only got that far on the back of goaltender Dwayne Roloson. The same Dwayne Roloson who was knocked out of the series in game one. Yeah ...overall they had a 16-9 playoff record (tied for worst of the list) while facing some of the worst competition.

 

9. 2011 Boston Bruins: While the Bruin had the (weirdly) dominant seven game win over President's Trophy winning Vancouver; the rest of the run is not as convincing. For example they took all seven games to beat the 8th seeded Canadians and the random Lightning team. They also didn't score a power play goal for the entirety of the first two rounds of the playoffs and finished only third in the conference with 46 wins in the regular season. However they did sweep the Flyers (albeit the Flyers who escaped the less than intimidating Sabres by the slightest of margins) and the finals was possibly the most dominant seven game series in world history. The final score of the series was 23-8 Boston! 23 to 8!!! The best regular season team was held to 8 goals! After the Canucks took a 2-0 series lead; Boston outscored them 21-4! Vancouver was up 3-2 after five games and were outscored 9-2 in games six and seven. Despite this utter dominance, the entire spectrum must be viewed. Compared to the other teams on this list Boston did not have a very impressive regular season or postseason (16-9) and they had a tendency to rely too much on Tim Thomas and his brilliance and Nathan Horton and his propensity to score game winning goals in game 7's. We were given a clear picture of what the 2011 Bruins were so close to being in 2012.

 

8.2009 Pittsburgh Penguins: The importance of Sidney Crosby and the Penguins finally slaying Detroit and taking their throne as the supposed new kings of the league overshadowed the fact that Pittsburgh didn't have a very good year. They're one of two teams in the past ten years to win the Cup with less than 100 points. In fact they were in 10th place in the East halfway through the year before firing Michael Therrian and hiring Dan Bylsma. This sparked an 18-3-3 run to 4th in the East where the Pens ended up in time for the playoffs to start. The Pens did accomplish the mighty feat of defeating the league's two best teams in Washington and Detroit but took all seven games to do so. They handled the Flyers easily in the first round and swept Carolina in the conference finals. Overall it was impressive season but they just didn't dominate like others ahead of them did.

 

7. 2012 Los Angeles Kings: This was by far the hardest team to place on the list. You see, they had by far the worst regular season of anyone on the list. But they also had the most dominating postseason run. I felt that their playoff dominance was enough to put them over the previous three but after that they're hampered too much by their less than brilliant regular season. A regular season that saw them score less than 200 goals (192), finish 8th in the West, and barely sneak into the playoffs in the last week of the regular season. But they did their best to make everyone forget that by taking out the two time defending President's Trophy winners; the Vancouver Canucks in only five games. They then swept the second seeded St. Louis Blues to start the playoffs 8-1. In the conference finals they again took a 3-0 series lead to run their record to 11-1. After the core of Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, and Dustin Penner began to take shape it became clear that this was a great team that underachieved a bit in the regular season. They defeated Phoenix and were slated to play New Jersey in the Stanley Cup. Incredibly, they started a fourth straight series with a 3-0 lead and improved their playoff record to 15-2. After struggling a bit, they closed out the Devils in 6 games with a 6-1 blowout in the clincher. They finished with a 16-4 playoff record by taking out the one, two, and three seed in the West. This playoff domination was good enough to make a totally average regualar season the 7th best championship team of the decade.

 

6. 2004 Tampa Bay Lightning: The forgotten champions. Their impressive playoff run was forgotten after possibly the most destructive lockout in North American sports history directly followed it. The Lightning scored the third most goals in the league in route to a 106 point finish. They tore through the Islanders and Montreal in the first two rounds of the playoffs in only nine games. Tampa then took all seven to put away the powerful Flyers and again went the distance to douse the oober hot Flames(Horrible pun intended). Why this team isn't remembered or talked about at all is beyond me. They had quite the playoff run(16-7), dominated at times(9-1 stretch to start the playoffs), a great regular season(106 points), the league's leading scorer(Martin St. Louis, albeit at a paltry 94 points), and a plethora of talent (Lecavalier, Richards, Boyle). Come on, people. Let’s give this team some more respect. It’s not like they’re going to get it from their hometown.

 

5. 2003 New Jersey Devils: This edition of the Devils allowed the least goals in the NHL (obviously) but also were in the top half of the league in scoring(14th). Not too shabby for the "trap and never fore check" Devils. They had more than a solid regular season with 108 points. They had a rather unimpressive 16-8 post-season record until you consider who they faced. Starting with the second round they defeated the future champion Lightning in five, President's Trophy winner Ottawa in seven, and the previously 12-2 Anaheim Mighty Ducks and Mr. Brick Wall himself J.S Giguere. Although they may not look special at first glance, these Devils defeated one of the toughest string of foes in recent playoff memory.

 

4. 2010 Chicago Blackhawks: Suprisingly the Hawks were one of the most dominant, complete championship teams of the decade. They had a great regular season record and a very good post-season one as well. Chicago had everything you could ask from a team. They had young stars like Duncan Keith, Kris Versteeg Pat Kane, and Conn Smythe winner John Toews. They had reliable veterans such as Marian Hossa, Pat Sharp, and John Madden. They had fantastic role players Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Brent Seabrook. They started rookie Annti Niemi in the playoffs and most importantly they had overpaid, underperforming veterans in Brian Campbell and Cristobal Huet (An absolute must). Yes this was quite the complete team and they showed it in tearing through both the regular season (112 points) and the post-season (16-6 record) including a sweep of San Jose in the conference finals. They were top five in both goals for (271) and goals against (209). The only thing holding Chicago out of a top three spot is the competition they faced. 2010 was a rather weak post-season as Chicago had to go through only perennial disappointments Vancouver and San Jose before taking on the seventh seeded Flyers in the Stanley Cup. Overall this was almost as good as a championship run gets. Unfortunately the salary cap took its toll the past two seasons and Chicago learned the hard way to that not everyone can be signed to a major deal.

 

3. 2013 Chicago Blackhawks: This is a conundrum if I’ve ever seen one. The Blackhawks clearly had the most impressive regular season of anyone in the last 10 years. They finished 36-7-5, earned a point in each of the first 24 games, scored the second-most goals, allowed the second-least and finished second in close-game fenwick according to behindthenet.ca. Spread those totals over a full season and you get roughly 62 wins, which would tie an NHL record. But it wasn’t a full season. They didn’t have a chance to regress to the mean. The process was definitely in effect; after a 21-0-3 start, they finished 15-7-2.

So perhaps this regular season isn’t as impressive as it seems at first glance. They certainly didn’t seem unstoppable in the postseason. They did matchup against a pretty tough slate in the final three rounds. Detroit had just defeated the second-seeded Ducks and was a tougher team than their seventh-place finish would indicate. Los Angeles was the best possession team in hockey while Boston was fourth and playing at the highest level they had all year. Considering those factors and Captain Jon Toews’ incredibly bad shooting luck, 16-7 is a pretty impressive playoff record. This was a very good team; they just weren’t the world-beaters their regular season winning percentage made them out to be.

 

2. 2007 Anaheim Ducks: Somehow GM Brian Burke was able to put together an all-time great team in ANAHEIM.....and no one remembers. People seem to forget just how good this team was. Perhaps people need to be reminded that Hall of Famers Scott Niedermayer AND Chris Pronger were paired together. Perhaps mentioning the all-star caliber Francois Beauchemin and Sean O'Donnell were the second pairing will jog people's memory. Maybe it should be considered that the top prize of last offseason, Ilya Bryzgalov, was the BACK-UP goalie as former Conn Smythe winner Jean Sebastien Giguere led the way. But that doesn't even include the offense and West leading scorer Teemu Selanne, the formerly great Andy McDonald, and the incredibly young core of Dustin Penner, Ryan Getzlaf, and Corey Perry. The Ducks were sixth in goals for and 7th in goals against as they finished with 110 points. They made easy work of a tough Minnesota team in the first round of the playoffs and did the same in five games to a super-talented Vancouver team in the second. They then physically dominated the Mighty Red Wings and defeated them in six games in the conference finals. The Ducks finished off their historic run by embarrassing the previously unstoppable Ottawa Senators in five games to finish 16-5 in the post-season.

1. 2008 Detroit Red Wings: The Wings were one of the most convincing champions in quite a while. They are the only team to win both the Stanley Cup and the President's trophy in the same season since......they did it in 2002 (we'll get to that very soon). They dominated the regular season with 54 wins and 115 points as they finished 3rd in goals scored (257) and 1st in goals allowed (184). Goalies Dominic Hasek and Chris Osgood split time dominating in net while future Hall of Famer Nick Lidstrom anchored the defense, and Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg were unstoppable on offense. After falling down 2-1 against Nashville in the first round, Detroit embarked on one of the most dominating runs in playoff history. They won the next three to finish off the Predators, swept Colorado (winning 9-0 in the closeout game), and started 3-0 on Dallas in the conference finals. After finished off the Stars, they faced very little adversity in closing out the young and talented Penguins. 

Stay hungry, my friends.