Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Top 10: Ranking the Last 10 World Series Champions


As a follow up to my ranking of the last 10 NBA Champions Taylor and I decided that we should do a similar list for all 4 of the major sports with Taylor handling football and hockey while I handle basketball and baseball.  Now my rankings of teams uses a great deal of analytics along the way as to me baseball is a very analytical game that for the most part can be understood almost exclusively through numbers.  So before I get on with my list I will give you a list of different statistics that I used in my piece with links that include detailed explanations.
Expected/Pythagorean Record:  This statistic suggests that run differential is actually a better indicator of success than actual record is.  It suggests whether or not teams were lucky or unlucky over the course of the season.
WAR:  A catch all statistic that suggests exactly how valuable a player is above a normal bench player or an average triple A call up.  While their are a few different calculations of WAR out there I used Fangraphs number the entire time for simplicity.   
wOBA:  This statistic is a better indicator than BA, OBP, or SLG as an indicator of value a player provides to an offense. 
FIP:  This statistic is an alternative form of ERA which only uses things directly in the pitchers control strikeouts, walks, and homeruns allowed as a means of calculation.  This should indicate whether or not the pitcher was lucky or unlucky over the course of the season.  It often is skewed higher than it should be for traditional groundball pitchers.  
·         2002 Angels
o   Record 99-63 (.61 winning %), Expected Record 101-61 (.62%)
o   4th offense (scored 851 runs), 4rd defense (allowed 644 runs) (4+4)/2=4
o   Playoff Record 11-5
o   Most Valuable Pitcher Jarrod Washburn 18-6, 206 IP, 139 Ks, 3.15 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 4.5 WAR
o  Most Valuable Hitter David Eckstein BA/OBP/SLG .293/.363/.388, wOBA .344, 8 HR, 21 Steals, 107 runs, 63RBIs, 4.4 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (2(.3)+1(.3)+2(.3)+7(.1))=2.2
·         2003 Marlins
o   Record 91-71 (.56 winning %), Expected Record 87-75 (.54%)
o   17th offense (scored 751 runs) , 8th defense( allowed 691 runs) (17+8)/2=12.5
o   Playoff Record 11-6
o   Most Valuable Pitcher Josh Beckett 9-8, 142 IP, 152 Ks, 3.04 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.9 WAR
o   Most Valuable Hitter Luis Castillo BA/OBP/SLG .314/.381/.397, wOBA .341, 6 HR, 21 Steals,  99 Runs, 39 RBIs, 5.3 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (8(.3)+9(.3)+10(.3)+9(.1))=9
·         2004 Red Sox
o   Record 98-64 (.60 winning %), Expected Record 96-66 (.59%)
o   1st offense(scored 949 runs), 14th defense(allowed 768 runs) (1+14)/2=7.5
o   Playoff Record 11-3
o  Most Valuable Pitcher Curt Schilling 21-6, 226.2 IP, 203 Ks, 3.26 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 7.3 WAR
o   Most Valuable Hitter Johnny Damon BA/OBP/SLG .304/.380/.477, wOBA .373, 20 HR, 19 Steals, 123 Runs, 94 RBI’s, 4.6 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (4(.3)+3(.3)+4(.3)+2(.1))=3.5
·         2005 White Sox
o   Record 99-63 (.61 winning %), Expected Record 91-71 (.56%)
o   13th offense(scored 741 runs) , 5th defense(allowed 645) (13+5)/2=9
o   Playoff Record 11-1
o   Most Valuable Pitcher Mark Buehrle 16-8, 236.2 IP, 149 Ks, 3.12 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 6.3 WAR
o   Most Valuable Hitter Paul Konerko BA/OBP/SLG .283/.375/.534, wOBA .385, 40 HR, 98 Runs, 100 RBIs, 4.0 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (2(.3)+7(.3)+6(.3)+1(.1))=4.6
·         2006 Cardinals
o   Record 83-78 (.52 winning %), Expected Record 82-79 (.51%)
o   14th offense(scored 781 runs), 10th defense(allowed 762 runs) (14+10)/2=12
o   Playoff Record 11-5
o   Most Valuable Pitcher Chris Carpenter 15-8,221.2 IP, 184 Ks, 3.09 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 5.2 WAR
o   Most Valuable Hitter Albert Pujols BA/OBP/SLG .331/.431/.671, wOBA .448, 49 HR,119 Runs, 137 RBIs, 8.5 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (10(.3)+10(.3)+9(.3)+7(.1))=9.4
·         2007 Red Sox
o   Record 96-66 (.59 winning %), Expected Record 101-61 (.62%)
o   4th offense (scored 867 runs), 1st defense(allowed 657 runs) (4+1)/2=2.5
o   Playoff Record 11-3
o   Most Valuable Pitcher Josh Beckett 20-7, 200.2 IP, 194 Ks, 3.27 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 6.5 WAR
o   Most Valuable Hitter David Ortiz BA/OBP/SLG .332/.445/.621, wOBA .448, 35 HR, 116 Runs, 117 RBIs, 6.3 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (5(.3)+1(.3)+1(.3)+2(.1))=2.3
·         2008 Phillies
o   Record 92-70 (.57 winning %), Expected Record 93-69 (.57%)
o   7th offense (scored 799 runs), 5th defense (allowed 680 runs) (7+5)/2=6
o   Playoff Record 11-3
o   Most Valuable Pitcher Cole Hamels 14-10, 227.1 IP, 196 Ks, 3.09 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 4.4 WAR
o   Most Valuable Hitter Chase Utley BA/OBP/SLG .292/.380/.535, wOBA .391, 33 HR, 14 SB, 113 Runs, 104 RBIs, 8.3 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (6(.3)+6(.3)+3(.3)+2(.1))=4.7
·         2009 Yankees
o   Record 103-59 (.64 winning %), Expected Record 95-67 (.59%)
o   1st offense (scored 915 runs), 14th defense (allowed 753 runs) (1+14)/2=7.5
o   Playoff Record 11-4
o   Most Valuable Pitcher CC Sabathia 19-8, 230 IP, 197 Ks, 3.37 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 6.4 WAR
o   Most Valuable Hitter Derek Jeter BA/OBP/SLG .334/.406/.465, wOBA .390, 18 HR, 30 SB, 107 Runs, 66 RBIs, 7.1 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (1(.3)+4(.3)+4(.3)+5(.1))=3.2
·         2010 Giants
o   Record 92-70 (.57 winning %), Expected Record 94-68 (.58%)
o   17th offense(scored 697 runs), 2rd defense (allowed 583 runs) (17+2)/2=9.5
o   Playoff Record 11-4
o   Most Valuable Pitcher Tim Lincecum 16-10, 212.1 IP, 231 Ks, 3.43 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 4.9 WAR
o   Most Valuable Hitter Andres Torres BA/OBP/SLG .268/.343/.479, wOBA .363, 16 HR, 26 SB, 84 Runs, 63 RBIs, 6.8 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (6(.3)+5(.3)+7(.3)+5(.1))=5.9
·         2011 Cardinals
o   Record 90-72 (.56 winning %), Expected Record 88-74 (.54%)
o   5th offense (scored 762 runs), 15th defense (allowed 692) (5+15)/2=10
o   Playoff Record 11-7
o   Most Valuable Pitcher Chris Carpenter 11-9, 237.1 IP, 191 Ks, 3.45 ERA. 3.06 FIP, 5.0 WAR
o   Most Valuable Hitter Albert Pujols BA/OBP/SLG .299/.366/.541, wOBA .385, 37 HR, 105 Runs, 99 RBIs, 5.1 WAR
o   Average of 4 Rankings (9(.3)+8(.3)+7(.3)+9(.1))=8.1
Record
1.       09 Yankees
2.       05 White Sox/02 Angels
4.       04 Red Sox
5.       07 Red Sox
6.       08 Phillies/10 Giants
8.       03 Marlins
9.       11 Cardinals
10.   06 Cardinals
Expected Record
1.       02 Angels/07 Red Sox
3.       04 Red Sox
4.       09 Yankees
5.       10 Giants
6.       08 Phillies
7.       05 White Sox
8.       11 Cardinals
9.       03 Marlins
10.   06 Cardinals
Average Rank of Offense and Defense
1.       07 Red Sox
2.       02 Angels
3.       08 Phillies
4.       04 Red Sox/09 Yankees
6.       05 White Sox
7.       10 Giants
8.       11 Cardinals
9.       06 Cardinals
10.   03 Marlins
Playoff Record
1.       05 White Sox
2.       04 Red Sox/07 Red Sox/08 Phillies
5.       09 Yankees/10 Giants
7.       02 Angels/06 Cardinals
9.       03 Marlins/11 Cardinals
Most Valuable Position Player
1.       06 Cardinals
2.       08 Phillies
3.       09 Yankees
4.       10 Giants
5.       07 Red Sox
6.       03 Marlins
7.       11 Cardinals
8.       04 Red Sox
9.       02 Angels
10.   05 White Sox
Most Valuable Pitcher
1.       04 Red Sox
2.       07 Red Sox
3.       09 Sabathia
4.       05 Buehrle
5.       06 Cardinals
6.       11 Cardinals
7.       10 Giants
8.       02 Angels
9.       08 Phillies
10.   03 Marlins
Calculated Rankings
This calculated ranking is not going to be composited just with an average of the rankings above.  While I think most valuable position player and pitcher are interesting statistics I don’t believe they are statistically relevant to the case.  I also don’t think that playoff record just matter as much as a 162 game sample size so I gave the other rankings weights of 30% while I gave playoff record a rank of 10%. 
1.       02 Angels
2.       07 Red Sox
3.       09 Yankees
4.       04 Red Sox
5.       05 White Sox
6.       08 Phillies
7.       10 Giants
8.       11 Cardinals
9.       03 Marlins
10.   06 Cardinals
My personal Rankings
My rankings of the last 10 World Series Champions I think can be broken down into 4 separate tiers of teams.  Ranging from bottom of the barrel World Series champs that succeeded mostly through luck, to top of the line teams that were unquestionably the best team in baseball. 
Tier 4 Teams (Lucky, below average World Series teams)
10.   06 Cardinals
To I’m sure no one in the world’s surprise the 06 Cardinals were the worst team to win the World Series over the past 10 seasons.  The team had by far the worst record of any team to win the World Series as it finished 83-78 as it limped to its title.  The sad part about the whole thing is that’s it’s not like the team was extremely unlucky in close games and had a great expected record, they actually overachieved in regard to what their record should have been.  This team on the positives had Chris Carpenter a great pitcher, an MVP type season of out Albert Pujols, and actually a fairly good lineup.  The problems were outside of Carpenter the pitching staff was bad, and the lineup faced a lot of injuries over the course of the season.  The team shouldn’t have been in the playoffs let alone won the World Series that season, but playing in a horrible division is really all you need to do to have a chance at the World Series.
9.       03 Marlins
The 03 Marlins were a slightly above average team that happened to get hot with a managerial change and went on to win the World Series.  The team had 5 good but not great starters, a decent lineup that had a few solid bats and a good bullpen.  Then the playoffs come around, they are able to defeat the Giants with the vaunted don’t let Barry Bonds swing the bat strategy, got a few infamous breaks to beat the Cubs, and then Josh Beckett carried them past the Yankees.  The team wasn’t that talented and really needed a lot of help to get to the World Series, but they are better than the 06 Cardinals just but a slimmer margin then you might believe. 
8.       11 Cardinals
The 2011 Cardinals provided one of the most exciting finishes to a baseball season in recent memory with memorable moment after memorable moment as the team went on a historic run to beat the Rangers in the World Series.  The problem is the reason that team needed so many historic moments was that quite simply it wasn’t that good.  Really I think actually this team went on a historic run because of a controversial midseason trade that revamped the bullpen that cost the team so much at the beginning of the season.  Then the bullpen became good, the called up David Freese and Allen Craig were able to help the offense which was being carried by the likes of Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Matt Holliday.  Really though the one player that carried the team was Chris Carpenter.  For game 162 he was able to throw a 2-hitter to bring the team into the postseason, in game 5 of the NLDS he pitched a 3-hitter to bring the team to the NLCS and outdueled Roy Halladay, and on 3 days rest in Game 7 of the World Series pitched 6 innings giving up 2 runs to win the World Series.  While the 2011 Cardinals weren’t the best team in the past 10 years to win the World Series, they were probably the most entertaining, providing the best World Series, and definitely the best World Series Game I have ever seen, Game 6. 
Tier 3 (Deserving Champs, but not great)
7.       10 Giants
When you think about the 2010 Giants run to become World Series champs you think of one word, beard, well if you were going to pick a word to describe the team though it would be pitching.  This team could do one thing exceptionally well and that is get batters out.  It had 3 top flight starters, Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez to go along with a great bullpen led by Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla.  This team though did have a below average offense in a time when scoring had shown a significant decline.  While the offense was definitely lackluster it was not as bad as it is often remembered it was able to squeeze solid production out of the likes of veterans Aubrey Huff, Torres, Pat Burrell, Freddy Sanchez among others and young star Buster Posey contributed significantly.  This lineup combined with the stellar pitching is able to elevate this team above the 3rd teir. 
6.       05 White Sox
To me the 2005 White Sox are undoubtedly the hardest team that there is to rate on this list.  They had a great regular season record and postseason record, but their expected record was quite low along with some of their peripheral stats.  To me what it comes down to is that the 05 White Sox despite from a far looking like a dominant team were really just an enhanced version of the 03 Marlins.  They had a lot of very good but not great pitchers, and their offense was slightly above average in comparison to the Marlins who had a lot of good pitchers and a slightly below average offense.  This team overachieved but just doesn’t have the ability of some of the other teams ahead of it on the list. 
5.       08 Phillies
When you think of the Phillies winning the World Series in 2008 you always think of the vaunted offense that they had.  You think of a lineup that was loaded top to bottom led by the efforts of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the middle and Jimmy Rollins at the top.  What might surprise you about the team though is that they were actually a better team at preventing runs than scoring them.  This might seem strange when only 2 starting pitchers had ERAs under 4 and one was the 45 year old Jamie Moyer, but the bullpen on the team was phenomenal.  Led by Brad Lidge who didn’t blow a save all season among other great arms, basically in any situation Charlie Manuel could call on the pen to pull them out of a situation.  The Phillies were a very good team in 2008, but an overrated offense and a regular season that didn’t see them blow anyone out of the water prevent them from being rated higher on the list. 
Tier 2 (Great Teams)
4.       04 Red Sox
Probably the most talked about World champion of any on the list the 04 Red Sox that broke the curse was a great baseball team.  These Idiots were literally able to score runs on anybody as they had elite players up and down the lineup all of whom could get on base at any time, and had two elite pitchers, Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez to combine with this.  Really the only flaw this team has is that for most of the season the rest of the pitching staff just wasn’t that good.  The three other regular starters Bronson Arroyo, Tim Wakefield and Derek Lowe had ERAs of 4.03, 4.87 and 5.42 respectfully while all starting at least 29 games.  Part of that can be contributed to playing in the always competitive AL East, but part of that is just for most of that season those guys weren’t that good.  The team came around in the postseason to complete the greatest comeback in sports history arguably, and secured itself as a great team. 
3.       09 Yankees
To me there is no more interesting comparison to make on this list than the 09 Yankees and the 04 Red Sox.  Those teams, bitter rivals were strikingly similar in their makeup both built around front loaded pitching staffs and high powered dominating offenses.  Actually the Yankees rotation was more front-loaded than the Yankees as its only consistently reliable starter was Sabathia.   No other regular starter had an ERA under 4 and the pitching staff was carried by an extremely strong bullpen led by Mariano “I might be a zombie” Rivera and the incredible offense.  So what elevates them ahead of the Red Sox?  They did have a more dominating regular season than the Red Sox did and without question that does man something.  Really though what it comes down to is that I think the AL East was a stronger division in 2009 than it was in 2004 and because the Rays had emerged as a legitimate threat and the Blue Jays had become a strong offensive force.  The team did have a lineup that could score on anyone led by Derek Jeter, Teixeira, the now clutch A-Rod, and Robinson Cano among a plethora of others. 
Tier 1 (Distinguished Champions, Elite World Series Teams)
2.       02 Angels
When you think of dominant baseball teams the 2002 Anaheim Angels rarely come to mind.  They don’t have any superstars that you identify with, and really the most memorable parts of their run was a poor pitching change decision by Dusty Baker and Barry Bonds making his case as the greatest player of all time.  This is a team that had 7 position players who had a WAR in-between 4.4 and 3.  It included a pitching staff that was led by the dominant for one season only Jarrod Washburn, along with solid starters like Ramon Ortiz and Kevin Appier along with a very good rookie season out of John Lackey.  The team had a great bullpen led by Troy Percival and in the postseason added the young and dominant K-Rod to the mix.  This Angels team was a sneaky great team that while not composed of people who could dominate you was a dominant team when put together.  This team was able to win 99 games and was expected to win 101 in an extremely strong division that included the 103 win Oakland A’s and the 92 win Seattle Mariners. 
1.       07 Red Sox
The 07 Red Sox to me did the most impressive thing that any team has done on this list, despite playing in the AL East.  This seems an impossible fact considering only 2 starters had ERAs under 4 and only one of those pitchers had a FIP under 4.  This pitching staff was led by Josh Beckett and an all-time great bullpen.  This bullpen while great most of the way through was led by closer Jonathon Papelbon and setup man Hideki Okajima who were both practically unhittable this season.  The offense was as strong as ever with David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez in the middle who combined with the efforts of Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkillis among others to give the team the 4th rated offense in baseball.  The 07 Red Sox were the best team because if you look at how each team was develop no team was able to combine regular season success, expected regular season success, offense and pitching dominance along with post season success to the level the Red Sox did.  They had a top-flight ace in Josh Beckett who combined with the rest of the team could go out and beat anyone at any time.  

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