The Greatest of All Time Part III: Dominik Hasek

This is the third part in a multi-part series called “The Greatest of All Time.” Each piece will feature who we believe to be the greatest to ever play a sport or a specific position. This piece will feature Dominik Hasek. All stats courtesy of Hockeyreference.com

Dominik Hasek is the greatest goalie in NHL history. Because of the title of this series, this fact should go without saying. However Hasek is, for some reason, the only member of this series who isn’t widely considered the greatest ever. Perhaps this is due to his relatively short career or his prime mostly being wasted on mediocre Buffalo teams. Either way, the claim of him being the greatest will spark the most debate. But it shouldn’t.

The easiest way to illustrate Hasek’s greatness is by using the two most prominent stats for a goalie; save percentage (sv. %) and goals against average (GAA). Aside from six guys who were born before 1910, Hasek has the best goals against average of all time. He twice led the league in GAA even though he played for totally average Sabre teams both years. In fact, in 1993-94, Hasek’s GAA was 1.95. Between 1993 and 2008, Hasek posted only one season with a GAA above 2.27.

His save percentage stats may be even more impressive. Because of era-specific advantages, 18 of the top-19 highest save percentages of all time are active goalies including such mediocrity as Jonas Hiller and Craig Anderson. Yet Hasek still stands firmly at the top of the list. The only goalie of his era near him is Patrick Roy who sits tied with Chris Mason at 23^rd all time. This statistical oddity illustrates Hasek’s utter dominance over all eras.

Incredibly enough, Hasek began his career as a back-up to Ed Belfour on the Chicago Blackhawks. Even after signing in Buffalo in 1992, Hasek was still a no-name back-up. When he finally did earn the opportunity to become a full-time starter, he was 28 years old. And he turned out absolutely incredibly numbers. The 1993-94 season would begin a streak of eight seasons that rival the production of anyone in hockey history. Hasek led the league in GAA twice, save percentage six times, shutouts four times (including 1997-1998 where he blanked 13 opponents) and took home six Vezina trophies in that span.

All of his regular season numbers are quite impressive but carrying average Sabre teams in the playoffs may be an even more impressive feat. Hasek’s numbers (2.02 GAA and .925 sv. %) improved slightly in the playoffs as a whole but this doesn’t do justice to his ability to catch fire and carry the team. In 1994 he had a 1.61 GAA and .950 save percentage in a seven-game epic defeat to the mighty Devils. In the spring of 1999 he led the seventh-seeded Sabres on a run to the Stanley Cup and posted a 1.77 GAA and .939 save percentage. He finally carried a team to the Stanley Cup in 2002 while posting more incredible numbers (1.86 GAA .920 sv %). But much to the chagrin of Western New York, this team was the Detroit Red Wings, not the Sabres. After the season he announced he would go into the Hall of Fame as a Red Wing which should take away all suspicion of my bias in writing this piece.

Despite all he achieved in his career, the moniker of “Greatest of All Time” is often designated as Martin Brodeur or Pat Roy. Yet it’s rarely considered that all three were somewhat in their prime during Hasek’s incredible run through the nineties. Between 1993 and 2002, Hasek and Roy were 28-37 and Brodeur was 21-30. During that period, Hasek won six Vezina trophies and two MVPs while neither Brodeur nor Roy took home any hardware. Roy won all three of his Vezina’s before Hasek was a starter and Brodeur won all four of his after Hasek’s prime. Not even all-time greats could compare to Hasek in his prime.

Although Hasek’s prime was short, it is unrivaled in the annals of NHL history. He paced the league in statistical categories, lifted his teams in the playoffs, overshadowed the accomplishments of all-time greats and, somehow, led the Czech Republic to the gold medal for ice hockey in the 1998 winter Olympics. There is little doubt that Dominik Hasek is the greatest off all time.

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An NHL Check-Up

Some quick hits on the NHL action thus far:

·         The Blackhawks couldn’t have picked a better time to have the best start in NHL history. Because of the abbreviated season, the Hawks have avoided losing in regulation for nearly 38% of the season. They’ve already opened an 11-point lead in the best division in hockey and are six points ahead of Anaheim for the conference lead. Their +23 goal differential is astounding and they are currently fourth in goals per game and first in goals allowed. Both Corey Crawford and Ray Emery have been incredible thus far. While their paces obviously aren’t sustainable, there’s no reason to think they won’t be a dangerous duo for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Pat Kane has been playing at Hart-Trophy-level pace so far while Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith, Marian Hossa and Pat Sharp have been incredible so far.

·         A quick peak at the top of either conference provides quite a surprise. Montreal currently holds the top spot in the East after finishing dead last in 2012. The catalyst in Montreal’s turnaround has been the play of Carey Price. The veteran goalie has a 10-3-1 record with a 1.97 GAA and a .923 save percentage. With balanced scoring and a solid defense, the Canadians could be in for quite the bounce-back season. Meanwhile, Anaheim has continued the tear they started late last season. Bruce Boudreau’s crew is second in the West with a 13-2-1 record. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Bobby Ryan have been as solid as always while Teemu Selanne  remains ageless and Francois Beauchemin’s return has been much better than expected. Viktor Fasth has been an unexpected stud between the pipes so far as he’s won all eight of his starts so far. The Ducks seem to be equipped to make a deep playoff run this season.

·         The shortened season hasn’t been so kind to everyone. The Rangers and Flyers have both struggled early in the season. The Flyers struggles are a little more predictable than the Rangers. Not so surprisingly, the goaltending has been brutal so far.Ilya Bryzgalov may be spending a little too much time pondering the universe and not enough time focusing on the job at hand. And that job may be larger than he anticipated. Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher have been dreadful as backups. Even as the league’s fifth-most-prolific scoring team, the Flyers find themselves in ninth place.

       Much like last season, the Rangers are having trouble scoring. That tends to be a major problem when it comes to winning hockey games. The goaltending and Tort’s defensive system have been solid but unless one of these high-price scorers starts producing, the Rangers could be 2013’s biggest disappointment.

·       

            Sidney Crosby is my early favorite for the Hart Trophy.  Now that Thomas Vanek has slowed down, Crosby has overtaken as point’s leader and the Penguins are primed for one of their famous fourth-place finishes. Crosby has been lighting up the scoreboard in the past few games leading many to wonder what he could do in a full season of action. Here’s an idea: he’s accumulated 131 points in his past 82 games.

·         While many were fixated on the slow start and eventual rise of the defending-champion Kings, the Coyotes were off too their own poor start. It seems as though all the 2012 magic has worn off for Mike Smith and he’s back to his league-average capabilities. The Coyotes have decent scoring talent but likely not enough to overcome their weakness in goal for anything more than a first-round loss. But that’s what they get for putting their faith in an aberration.

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The Greatest of All Time Part II: Jerry Rice

             Over the next month or so, Mike and I will be writing a series called; “The Greatest of All Time.” In each piece we will profile the greatest athlete to play a certain sport or position. Mike wrote the first installment of this series on Babe Ruth which you can read here. The second part of the series will feature the greatest receiver in NFL history; Jerry Rice. (All stats courtesy of Profootballreference.com)

            The gap between Jerry Rice and the second best receiver of all time may be larger than in any other sport. Although most of Rice’s prime didn’t coincide with the so-called “passing era”, he still managed to have far and away the best receiving numbers in NFL history. He finished his career with 22,895 yards and 197 touchdowns and 1569 catches.

            To put his numbers in perspective, consider Terrell Owens is second all-time with 15,934 receiving yards. There are 6961 yards between Rice and the retired Owens or more than Dwight Clark, Kellen Winslow I or Cris Collinsworth gained in their entire careers. Rice has more career yards than Lance Alworth and Raymond Berry COMBINED, more catches than Michael Irvin and James Lofton combined and more touchdowns than Steve Largent and Isaac Bruce combined. By the way, all those guys besides Bruce are Hall of Famers.

            However all these ways of measuring his stats don’t do justice to the era he played in and what receiving numbers looked like before he entered the league. When he was a rookie in 1985, the all-time leader in receiving yards was Charlie Joiner with just over 12,000 yards. At the time there were only five players in NFL history with over 10,000 career yards. In fact, when Rice retired in 2004, Tim Brown and James Lofton were the only receivers within 9000 yards of Rice; more than all but 49 players have gained in NFL history. Lastly, only 14 players who started their careers before 1990 have gained 10,000 yards receiving. Rice is the only one in that group who’s gained at least 15,000 yards. And he has nearly 23,000.

            There are only eight players in NFL history with 100 receiving touchdowns; Jerry Rice has 197 or 41 more than the next highest. Steve Largent is the only player whose career started before Rice’s with triple-digit touchdowns and he has 100. In other words, he’s closer to the career touchdown total of Justin Blackmon than he is to Jerry Rice’s.

            In addition Rice has, by far, the most receptions of all time. Tony Gonzalez has now played 16 seasons of pro-bowl level football and is still over 300 receptions behind Rice. Even the stars of this pass-heavy era barely have a prayer to catch Rice. Randy Moss’s career is just about over and he’s nearly 600 behind. Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker and Steve Smith are on the wrong side of thirty yet are barely halfway there. Even all-time greats that played with Rice like Art Monk and Tim Brown aren’t near the same level as him.

            However Rice was more than just the greatest receiver of all time; he was an innovator. Rice’s legendary workout routines changed things in the way Don Hutson’s pre-determined routes changed things so long ago. Football became a year-round game, especially for receivers. Rice never took a day off or an easy day, he was determined to be the best ever and he succeeded. This is precisely what made Randy Moss’s claim of being the best ever at Super Bowl media day so ridiculous. It’s not that Rice is just better; it’s that they aren’t even in the same conversation.

Rice is the greatest of all time and there’s no reasonable debate to the contrary. In fact, Pro Football Referece lists his nick name as G.O.A.T (Greatest of All Time). He may be the only person in sports capable of pulling off that nickname without sounding incredibly arrogant…because it’s accurate. Jerry Rice is the greatest of all time.

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Lindy Ruff and the All-too Predictable Sabres

               So here we are again. One-third of the way through the abbreviated season, the Sabres sit in 12^th place. They’re four points out of eighth but two points away from last; forever toiling in mediocrity. There are a few new faces this year but the pattern remains mostly the same. They win big games in impressive fashion (usually against Boston), leading the fan base to believe they’ve turned a corner. Then they blow a lead late or no show a big-time home game and we’re reminded what kind of team it is we cheer for.

                Friday, Drew Stafford scored his first goal in the 15^th game of the season. This comes two years removed from a 30-goal season which earned him a four year, $16 million contract. As if on cue, his productivity immediately dropped. It’s always seemed as though at least one of the “top” forwards has to be on some sort of slump at all times in the post-Briere/Drury era. This is not a huge area of concern right now as most of the other top forwards are exceeding expectation. It’s been the defense that’s been the major issue; and would it really be a Sabres season without a major issue?

                Yet again it seems the Sabres are without a real identity. Unless that identity is the oober-sloppy, high-scoring team that has one punch-happy monster to embarrass whoever the toughest guy on the opposing team is. In other words, the poor man’s Flyers with a better goalie. The defense has been no help to Ryan Miller thus far, Myers looks lost, Leopold somehow looks even worse, they’re not very much tougher even with Ott and Scott, they’re inconsistent on offense and beyond Tyler Ennis, they lack secondary scoring.

                If the Sabres were to keep up this pace, they’d miss the playoffs for the second year in a row and the fourth time in six seasons. They’ve won only five playoff series since 1999 and have missed the playoffs six times in 10 years. So how does Owner Terry Pegula justify not firing 15^th-year coach Lindy Ruff? The NHL may be the toughest league to keep a job in and definitely sees the quickest turnarounds when it comes to coaching changes. Four teams made the second round of the playoffs last year after making a coaching change in-season. One of those teams, the Los Angeles Kings, brought home the Stanley Cup.

                There have been 170 coaching changes since Lindy Ruff was hired in 1997 yet he has not won a Stanley Cup. In his only championship appearance, the Sabres were defeated by Ken Hitchcock’s Dallas Stars. Hitchcock was later fired by the Stars, Flyers and Blue Jackets whom he all led to the playoffs. Last year he was brought in mid-season to St. Louis, turned the Blues around, helped them grab the second seed a year after missing the playoffs and earned the Jack Adams award for top coach. He wasn’t fired from all those jobs because he’s a bad coach; sometimes it’s just necessary. Whether it be a change of scenery, a fresh voice or a kick in the ass to the team; firing the coach is just a necessary evil to remain competitive in the NHL.

                Ruff should be fired before it’s too late and another season is lost. The Sabres are too talented and play in too passionate of a hockey market to accept mediocrity. Yes, Ruff has been a part of the development of Vanek, Miller and Pomminville. But he’s also been a part of the development of Myers, Enroth, Kotalik, Sekera, Gragnani and Stafford. There’s far too much young talent in the Sabres right now to trust Ruff with. It’s time for Pegula to part with Ruff and move in a different direction. That is, if the sole reason for existence is actually to win the Stanley Cup.

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The Greatest of All Time: Babe Ruth

This is going to be the first in a running series going on with the blog about the greatest athlete of all time.  The list will begin with George Herman Ruth.

(Thanks to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for all the statistics from this piece)

Many people know that Babe Ruth was quite good at baseball.  They know he called his own shot, drank a lot of beer, smoked a lot and hit a lot of home runs.  People have this mythological view when it comes to Babe Ruth as this larger than life figure who was basically a baseball god.  The craziest part is how close this is to the truth.  (Also since we’re talking about baseball here my piece is going to be extremely numbers heavy so be prepared.)

Let’s start out with the basics.  Babe Ruth holds a career batting line of .342/.474/.690, and he has hit 714 career homeruns.  Now let’s really look at everything.  His .342 Batting Average is good for 13^th all time, which is ok for someone who was most notably a power hitter.  His OBP of .474 is 2^nd all-time only behind Ted Williams.  His SLG of .690 is easily 1^st all time; Ted Williams who is 2^nd finished his career with a SLG of .634.  His homerun count makes him 3^rd all time.  Now here come the fun stats.  His OPS is first all time, his OPS+ ranks 1^st all time, he ranks 1^st all-time in wOBA, 1^st all-time in wRC+, and first all-time in both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference’s WAR for postion players.  So yes by almost every metric Babe Ruth dominated baseball more than anyone in history.  A WAR of 8 is considered MVP level, and he has  11 such seasons based on both tabulations.  Think about that in 11 of his 22 career seasons, Babe Ruth was playing at a level where me would have been a worthy MVP, that doesn’t even include seasons where he was just below that level.  So wow he was good.  Here is something scary, Babe Ruth’s career lasted from 1914-1935 from the years 1900 to 1950, he had 180 more home runs than 2^nd on the list during that same span. 

Thus far what I have shown you is the case that Babe Ruth is the best position player of all time, a compelling and quite strong case.  Obviously though there are parts of the argument that don’t make it as clear cut a possibility, and both Barry Bonds and Willie Mays He is only barely ahead of Bonds in terms of WAR and just a little higher than Willie Mays.  Taking into account the imperfections of WAR, especially defensive and baserunning metrics from the time, and that baseball was segregated during Ruth’s time there are clear arguments that Ruth wasn’t the best position player.  It’s a real discussion and one where I’d probably lean in Bond’s direction but again Bonds was not as dominant as Ruth, even though Bonds was quite dominant in his own right. 

There is an additional component to the argument though that I have failed to mention, Babe Ruth’s career didn’t begin as a hitter but as a pitcher.  Babe Ruth as a position player is practically tied with Barry Bonds and Willie Mays but as a baseball player it’s probably not close.  Ruth was a full or part time starting pitcher for parts of 5 seasons and came away with a career BRef WAR of 19.1, and a Fangraph’s WAR of 15.6.  So think about that basically Ruth’s career totals as a hitter are equal to any man’s totals in history.  Then on top of that he has basically what comes to 5 solid seasons of work as a starting pitcher, including two where he pitched at an elite level. 

Babe Ruth more than any other player in baseball history dominated the sport.  He was basically on another level when he played, this is a man for the majority of his career was what Barry Bonds was for the peak of his.  Throw in the fact that he started his career as a pitcher, meaning he lost out on some time to dominate as a hitter even if he was quite productive as one, it makes his career accomplishments ever more impressive.  The man has a serious case that he is the single most dominating athlete of any sport and really it would take an exceptional case to exceed his accomplishments.  Actually it would take more than an exceptional case it would take a genetic freak of nature to exceed his resume.  Barry Bonds was one of the best players in the history of baseball up until 1998 and then after “allegedly” began his steroid use put together arguably the greatest 4 year run of any player in baseball history.  Barry Bond’s career accomplishments still don’t exceed the “Great Bambino”.  Babe Ruth is the case of a man whose legend is actually backed up by his accomplishments. 

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The Early Goings in the NHL

The NHL, a league already riddled with random variance, is in the midst of playing a compressed 48-game season after taking over three months of would-be game time off. Things could get messy and weird. Here are five thoughts on the first few weeks of action:

11.  We’ve seen this before from Thomas Vanek. The Austrian winger has jumped out incredible starts in the past (2009, 2011) only to falter down the stretch due to injury or other circumstances. Albeit, he’s never started like THIS before. Perhaps he’s changed; perhaps he’ll be able to keep up his mind-boggling pace through the shortened season. But he should not be surprised if he has a major slowdown soon.

22.  Canisius College alum., Cory Conacher, looks like the favorite for rookie of the year. Nothing against Nail Yakupov or Vlad Tarasenko, who have been nothing short of incredible, but Conacher has 12 points through just 10 games along with the luxury of playing alongside one of the best in the game. Conacher has played with Stamkos at center for the most part this season but even if he was dropped to the second line or something happened to Stamkos, he’d be lucky enough to play with Lecavalier. It appears the chips are stacked in Conacher’s favor this season.

33.    The Panthers might drop 10 spots in the Eastern Conference standings from last year…and not be much worse. Florida fell ass-backward into the third seed in the East last year when both Washington and Tampa Bay steadfastly refused to win hockey games. When it was all said and done, the Panthers won 38 games and had a -21 goal differential. This year, their goaltending is a total mess and they don’t seem to be getting the overtime luck they got last year. Both Theodore and Clemmensen have been brutal and they’re sorely lacking secondary scoring. Even goaltending improves; they appear to be about a 13^th-seed type team. But they likely wouldn’t be much worse than last year.

44.    St. Louis’s recent skid no cause for concern. In 2012 the Blues made their bones as a tough, defensively-minded team with two stellar goalies. This year, Brian Elliot has shocked no one by majorly regressing in Jaroslav Halak’s absence. Elliot’s struggles give the illusion the Blues are no longer a sound defensive team. However, we won’t know this until Halak returns (which could be the next week). The good news for the Blues is they’re now third in the NHL in scoring, mostly through the efforts of d-men Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shatternick. I’d wager they’ll be fine if Halak returns at 100% health.

55.   You’re guess as to what happened to the Capitals is as good as mine. While their goaltending has been weak and they were only a seven seed last year, it’s not enough to throw out those reasons as a total explanation. In 2010, the Caps won the President’s Trophy and scored well over 300 goals. Most of that scoring core is still in-tact and young yet they’ve, for some reason, fallen apart. That year Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green and Niklas Backstrom combined for 286 points. Through 12 games this year, they have 22 and only seven goals. So yes the goaltending has been rough, but the young, should-be stars have not played to expectation either. 

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Revising the Rankings: The Last 10 Super Bowl Champs

In August we ranked the last 10 champions in every sport; football was the final installment. Because of the recent Super Bowl, the 2002 Bucs (who occupied the second spot on this list) no longer qualified under the parameters of "last 10." Therefore the list had to be revised to include the 2012 Ravens. Enjoy!

This is different from the other three lists in one major way. People remember more about these teams than any other teams. Name the small forward on the 2007 Spurs or any pitcher on the 2008 Phillies or a second liner from the 2006 Hurricanes. Exactly you can't...but chances are you can name multiple players on any of these teams. That's why this list is different. You think you know what order these teams should be in. But there are a few things that might have been missed or forgotten by everyone. In addition there are a few things that advanced stats can help us see that we wouldn't normally pick up.

In making this list I considered many factors but there were four main ones. First off regular season record for obvious reasons. Then I used the profootballreference.com stat expected record to get a better look at how successful each team was in the regular season and see how much of a factor luck played. I also used the stat SRS or Simple Ranking System. This basically subtracts the value of a teams strength of schedule from its average margin of victory. There are a few flaws with this stat such as favoring offensive teams and being inflated by blowouts so it's important to take it with a grain of salt. However it is, for the most part, a pretty useful tool. In addition, I considered how dominant each team was on it's playoff run through average margin of victory. I combined all four of these factors and used a few others to create this list.

10. 2011 New York Giants: Record 9-7, Expected Record 7.9-8.1 SRS:1.6 (League average is 0)

In 2011 we were  treated to possibly the strangest NFL seasons in years. Passing records fell like leaves in the fall while teams took the entire season to figure out their identity. I could go on for days about how weird this season was but I think saying that the Super Bowl champion had a negative point differential will suffice. That's right, the team that brought home the Lombardi Trophy allowed six more points than they scored the entire season. They also only won nine games and based on their performance were lucky to win that many. These Giants had the worst expected record of anyone on the list, the worst SRS, and the worst record. Lets take a look at who they beat in the regular season real quick. They defeated awful teams (Rams), teams that were struggling early in the year (Arizona, Philly, Miami), teams that were below average (Buffalo), and teams that were falling apart at the end of the year (Dallas, NY Jets). Of course they also lost twice to the Rex Grossman-led Washington Redskins as well. Anything can happen in a season that follows a lockout and the Giants showed us just that in January. They defeated teams that had gone a combined 52-12 in the regular season to claim their fourth Super Bowl in franchise history.

9. 2007 New York Giants:Record 10-6, Expected 8.6-7.4 SRS 3.2

 Before we proceed I should probably clear something up, I do not in fact hate the New York Giants. I was as happy as anyone when they defeated the Evil Patriots in Super Bowl 42, it literally made my year. I bought the commemorative T-shirt and book on the season. I loved it, I watch the highlights on Youtube about once a month. Now that it's clear that i'm not just a hater with an ax to grind, I think it's safe to say that these Giants just weren't very good most of the year. Eli had a pretty below-average year and no one was scared of their offense. Believe it or not they had a pretty average defense as well. However, after falling down 14-3 to the Buffalo Bills in the first half week 16, a memorable run ensued. They dominated the second half to win 38-21 and then nearly knocked off the undefeated Patriots the next week(38-35). After giving one of the best teams of all time a game Eli Manning and the Giants gained the confidence needed to make a historical run. They beat Tampa Bay in the wild card round (24-14), shocked top seeded Dallas in the divisional round (21-17), and outlasted the previously 14-3 Packers in overtime(23-20) to advance to Super Bowl 42. In the biggest game of the sports year, the Giants were matched up against those same Patriots from a few weeks ago. The rest, as they say, is history. The Giants may not have been the best Super Bowl champion of all time, but they gave us some of the best memories.

8. 2012 Baltimore Ravens: Record 10-6 Expected record 9.4-6.6 SRS 2.9

This year’s Ravens were one of the least-impressive champions ever. They barely scraped by in the regular season barely beating inferior opponents in a watered-down AFC and almost blew the division to the “we’re just happy to get our asses handed to us in the wild-card round every year” Bengals. The Ravens had the league’s 10^th best offense, 12^th best defense and were 11^th in point differential. They beat a Colts team who Football Outsiders called “the worst 11-5 team of all time” in the first round. They then engaged in an epic duel with the Broncos in the next round and took advantage of a horrendous day for Denver’s secondary to grab a double-overtime win. The Birds then preyed on the Patriots in the AFC Championship, sending the Pats home without the Lombardi trophy for the eighth year in a row. In the Super Bowl, much like the AFC Championship, the Ravens relied on the poor play of San Fran’s secondary to secure a victory. The Ravens deserved the Lombardi Trophy but they couldn’t have been less impressive in earning it.

7. 2006 Indianapolis Colts: Record 12-4, Expected Record 9.6-6.4 SRS: 5.9

The 2006 Colts were the beginning of the end for the motto "defense wins championships." They were the 32nd ranked run defense and 23rd overall defense. Yet they started the season 9-0, mostly through the effort of Peyton Manning and their second ranked offense. As you can see above they outperformed their expected record by a wide margin in 2006 just as they did every year from 2002-2010.  But they couldn't overcome the awful play of their defense the last few weeks of the year as the Colts dropped to 12-4 and out of a first round bye. Then something incredible happened that January. In the first round the league's worst run defense held the league's leading rusher to under 30 yards as the Colts toppled Larry Johnson and the Chiefs 23-8. They then held the #2 seeded 13-3 Ravens to six points in a 15-6 field goal fest. In the AFC Championship they finally got over the New England hump in a 38-34 comeback win. In the Super Bowl the RB tandem of Dominic Rhodes and Joe Addai ran all over the top ranked Bears defense. These Colts will always be remembered for Peyton Manning getting his only Super Bowl win, but perhaps they should be remembered as the beginning of the "defense doesn't matter era." Yes this team was 16-4 but with the league's worst run defense and a point differential of 4.2 points a game, they were lucky to do so.

6. 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers: Record 11-5 Expected Record 11.6-4.4 SRS: 7.8

Yes, the first six seed to ever win the Super Bowl is seventh on this list. This team should not have been a six seed. The Men of Steel had the same record (11-5) as they division champion Bengals, the 5th seeded Jaguars, and had a better record than the 4th seeded Patriots so you can throw that out the window as a knock against the team. Now consider that this team had a higher expected record than all but three teams on this list and had a 7.8 SRS (the league average is 0). This team was much better than it's remembered. Especially when you consider their playoff run. They destroyed division rival Cincinatti, eeked out a win over the top seeded 14-2 Colts, and then dominated Denver in the AFC Championship. But I bet you all you remember about the playoff run is the Super Bowl full of fishy calls and poorly thrown balls. Yes they were a six seed and were less than impressive in the Super Bowl but that doesn't tell the whole story. This was a great team that dominated in the playoffs and for most of the regular season.

5. 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers: Record 12-4 Expected Record 11.8-4.2 SRS:9.8

This was as solid and un-flashy as Super Bowl Champions get. The 2008 Steelers were of course the league's best defense and had an above average offense. They had a very simple formula for winning games. They shut down the opposing team's offense and closed them out late in the 4th quarter with a game winning drive. Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes was as clutch of a combination as there was in the league at that time. The only real knock on these Steelers was their offensive line. Their inability to run block severely hurt the team's traditionally-strong run game. If they had anyone but master sack-avoider Big Ben at QB, it may have been an even bigger detriment to their offense. But poor line play didn't stop them from putting away San Diego in the divisional round, Baltimore in the AFC Championship, and then Arizona in one of the most memorable Super Bowls of all time. This was a solid, wire to wire great team with an all time defense.

4. 2003 New England Patriots: Record 14-2 Expected Record 11.4-4.6 SRS 6.9

3. 2010 Green Bay Packers: Record 10-6 Expected Record 12.1-3.9 SRS 10.9

Based on these team's regular season records, they appear to be backwards in ranking. Yet you'll notice the advanced stats favor the Packers. Why is that and do they deserve a higher spot than the Patriots? Well yes and here's why. First off the Packers did not trail by more than a touchdown the entire season. Think about that....this may be the most incredible stat in NFL history. They didn't trail by more than seven points one minute for the entire season but they lost six games by three points each. This was their only weakness, their inability to close teams out. This will come up again later. Meanwhile the Patriots were quite the opposite. They had a knack for winning close games and/or not having a good enough offense to sepereate enough from anyone. This was the league's 17th ranked offense. Brady was very good but not yet great, the receiving core was solid but lacked a true number one, and they went with a platoon at running back but didn't have anyone that ran for 700 yards or 5 tds. But they did have a defense that scored five touchdowns and set them up for many other scores. This defense allowed the least points in football that year AND created offense. Not to mention they also had the intangible that is Adam Vinitieri. Meanwhile Green Bay had a better defense than anyone remembers. They were second in points allowed in the NFL and scored four return touchdowns. Meanwhile the offense ranked 10th in points scored, but became so much better than that down the stretch.

These teams are incredibly close by these standards but what sepereates them is their playoff runs. The Patriots squeaked out a win over the Titans 17-14, beat the Colts and MVP Peyton Manning 24-14, and then won a closely contested Super Bowl over the upset minded Panthers 32-29 on a Vinitieri field goal. The Packers dominated the playoffs but had trouble putting the teams away, just like the regular season. Only unlike the regular season they came out victorious in January. They beat the incredibly dangerous Eagles 21-16, destroyed the number one seeded Falcons 48-21, beat the division champion Bears 21-14, and then ran out to a huge lead over the mighty Steelers before holding on 31-25. I had to give this one to the Packers. It takes a truly special team to not trail by more than a touchdown for an entire season. But their lack of ability to put teams away prevents them from being higher on this list.

2. 2009 New Orleans Saints: Record 13-3 Expected Record 11.6-4.4 SRS 10.8

(This was originally written as a contrast between them and the 2002 Bucs who no longer qualify for the list)

The Saint's offense and the Buc's defense basically cancel each other out as they are both easily the best units on this list and some of the best all time. The Bucs gave up less than 200 points while also causing nearly 50 turnovers. The Saints scored over 500 points in the regular season and over 100 in three post season games. They nearly went undefeated after starting the season 13-0. So basically the Saint's offense and Buc's D are taken out of the equation while the other units are considered. The Saints defense was below average and was 20th in points allowed. Meanwhile the Bucs offense was 18th in the leauge in points scored. Again there's not much of a difference. Thrown in their split of expected record and SRS and basically this is a wash. The only factor that puts the Bucs over the Saints is how utterly dominant they were down the stretch. The Saints annihilated the Cardinals in the divisional round 45-14, outlasted the Vikings in the NFC Championship 31-28 in overtime, and beat the Colts in the Superbowl 31-17. 

1. 2004 New England Patriots Record 14-2 Expected Record 12.4-3.6

To conclude this list we have the biggest ass kicking, wire to wire best team in the league, complete team of decade. As you can see the Patriots were 14-2, showing dominance in the regular season. They were the leagues 4th best offense and it's 2nd best defense. Remember those problems from the 2003 team? A lack of spark on offense? Solution: Tom Brady becomes the Tom Brady we now know and is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. David Patten and David Givens become reliable enough receivers. Oh yeah and they acquired the best running back in the league at that time, Corey Dillon. All he did was run for 1635 yards or about 1000 more than anyone ran for in 2003. Meanwhile the defense remained the same. That's right, there were this many improvements on a 14-2 team. This is why the Patriots are always among the best, they're ahead of the curve. They continued to amaze in the playoffs. In the division round they held the 500 point scoring Colts and 49 touchdown throwing Peyton Manning to three points in a 20-3 victory. In the AFC Championship they let their offense shine as they put up 41 on the league's best defense in Pittsburgh. The Super Bowl featured one of their patented three point victories, this time over the Eagles. So to recap they held a record breaking offense to three points, put up 41 points on the league's best defense, and then beat the 13-3 NFC winning Eagles in the Super Bowl. Not a bad run.

Stay Hungry My Friends.

Path to the Combine: Tyler Wilson

           Standing 6’3, 220 pounds Tyler Wilson isn’t exactly the prototypical build of an NFL Quarterback. What Wilson lacks in size however, he makes up for in elusiveness and velocity. Wilson moves very well in the pocket as well as out. Wilson also possesses the type of arm strength and velocity dearly missed from the QB position in Buffalo. Far too often fans have been subjected to dead duck throws or one hoppers from the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards before him. Wilson has the arm strength to stick a ball in the breadbasket on the comeback routes or sideline routes, a skill that can dynamically change an offense’s game plan.

            With this strength comes an effortless throwing motion, nearly a flick of the wrist. This same throwing style can be found in quarterbacks such as Michael Vick and Robert Griffin. This style leads to quick and deadly passes that can completely destroy any blitz a defense tries to run. Wilson also throws a beautiful arcing deep ball that always seems to find his intended mans area.

            With these qualities in mind, Wilson seems to look for deep to intermediate throws more often than the short ones. This is not to say Wilson will not check down, but usually does so after making his down the field reads. This is in contrast to Ryan Fitzpatrick who’s primary reads seemed to always be short, quick passes.

            In addition to the flashy skills Wilson possesses, he also has a blue-collar toughness to him. Playing in the toughest conference in football has offered plenty of big hits and bumps. Wilson has proven time and time again to be able and willing to take the hits and pop right back up. Wilson has also been praised as a film-junkie and a lunch-pail worker. These qualities should quickly endear him to not only the coaching staff, but also his fellow veteran teammates. It is also worth noting that although the 2012 season was a disappointing one for the Razorbacks, Wilson was still able to throw for over 3,000 yards and 21 TD’s in a tough SEC with a new coach and system.

            Wilson may not be an elite option for the Buffalo Bills with their first pick of the 2013 draft, but he may be a pick that needs to be made. The Bills cannot go into the 2013 season with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, and there is not a plethora of free agents that can be starters in this league. Leading up to the combine, there will be plenty of talk surrounding the quarterback class, but I believe Wilson will stand out above the bunch when February 24th rolls around.  

No Bills? No Way! A wish list for the Bills offseason

Fresh off another disappointing season, the Buffalo Bills are finally in a position to turn the franchise in the right direction. The hiring of head coach Doug Marrone and Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett signify a new era of Buffalo football: young and forward thinking. The Bills, led by Russ Brandon also stole defensive guru Mike Pettine from the rival New York Jets. The Bills seem to finally have the coaching staff in place to usher in a winning attitude and product in Buffalo, a product dearly missed.

            When you examine and breakdown the roster for the Bills, you don’t see a lack of talent. Starting on offense you have possibly the most explosive offensive weapon in the NFL with C.J. Spiller, and his backup Fred Jackson isn’t too shabby either. Going down the line you have an injury prone, yet hard-nosed stonewall in Eric Wood and his line mate Andy Levitre. Fellow lineman Cordy Glenn is coming off a rocky rookie season where when he was good he was really good, but when he was bad it got ugly.  You also have borderline superstar Stevie Johnson who despite inadequate quarterback play has posted consecutive impressive seasons.

            On the defensive side of the ball came perhaps the biggest disappointment and surprise in years. This defense was hyped up as a throwback to the 90’s Buffalo Bills, Mario leading the charge as Bruce. Mario Williams did have a pretty solid season after wrist surgery, but the defense as a collective whole faltered and failed, mainly due to poor linebacking from Kelvin Sheppard and embarrassing corner play from Aaron Williams. Jairus Byrd was back to his usual ball hawking self, but has really emerged as a complete package at safety. Hopefully with Pettine at the helm we see a new and very much improved defense.

            This is the year for changes, and there are many changes I feel need to be made. Starting on offense, we must cut Ryan Fitzpatrick or negotiate a salary cut. The reasoning for that really goes without saying. Secondly, make C.J Spiller the starting halfback and split the carries 70-30. On average I believe C.J should get around 20 runs, and about 25 touches total, with Fred mainly subbing in as a short yardage back. Onto defense, it’s time to cut Chris Kelsay; in fact it was time years ago. Not only is he a major cap hit, but he’s unproductive and a liability in most cases. Following that is benching George Wilson in favor of Da’Norris Searcy, Aaron Williams in favor of Ron Brooks and Mark Anderson in favor of Kyle Moore.

            Onto free agency, some major splashes need to be made. Firstly, and perhaps most importantly is addressing the need for a real number #2 receiver. I believe either Dwayne Bowe or Mike Wallace should fill this need. Both of these receivers bring a dimension long missed in the Bills passing game, stretching the field. Secondly, bring in Bart Scott and either Aqib Talib or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. These signings would fill major holes with veterans who can step in day 1 and assume big roles.

            Although the draft is ways away and we still have the combine to consider, I’d like to present my ideal draft choices for early rounds of the Buffalo Bills 2013 draft.

           

            Round 1: Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas/Matt Barkley QB USC

            Round 2: Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee

            Round 3: Chris Gragg TE Arkansas

           

            With all this said I would like the starting line up of the 2013 Buffalo Bills to resemble this:

           

QB: Tyler Wilson

            RB: CJ Spiller
            FB: Cory McIntyre

            WR1: Stevie Johnson

            WR2: Dwayne Bowe

            WR3: Cordarrelle Patterson

            TE: Scott Chandler
            LT: Cordy Glenn

            LG: Andy Levitre

            C: Eric Wood

            RG: Craig Urbik

            RT: Chris Hairston

            DE: Kyle Moore, Mario Williams

            DT: Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus

            LOLB: Nigel Bradham

            MLB: Bart Scott

            ROLB: Nick Barnett

            CB: Stephon Gilmore, Aqib Talib, Ron Brooks

            SS: Da’Norris Searcy

            FS: Jairus Byrd

           

Stay Hungry my friends and GO BILLS!